Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Morgan’s latest survey combines two sets of phone polling conducted in the middle of this week and last week, producing an unusually large sample of 2231. Normally their phone poll figures consist of only one such set of polling. It shows Labor leading 60.5-39.5 per cent on two-party preferred – down from 61-39 at the phone poll of March 11-12, and from 63.5-36.5 in the more recent face-to-face survey released last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

314 thoughts on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

Comments Page 2 of 7
1 2 3 7
  1. -From ABC News

    “Federal Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson has described the Prime Minister’s salute to the US President as unbecoming behaviour.

    When Kevin Rudd encountered George Bush during the NATO summit he acknowledged him with a small salute.”

    -From ruawake’s link
    “…
    as the President saluted Mr Rudd, the Prime Minister smiled and slowly gave a salute of his own.”

    Why the difference?

  2. An Australian PM addresses NATO for the first time ever, meets the French President and the Canadian PM.

    France agrees to send more troops and Canada pulls back from withdrawing troops.

    What does “call me Brendan” have to say? “Er Kev I don’t like your non-verbal communication skills”.

    Tosser. 😛

  3. fred, myself and him indoors almost glassed the telly with salutegate getting no. 3 coverage on the news. The ABC has become a joke. Antonio or Hass, if you’re around, you might want to point out to management that there is, it would seem, a growing number of people who regard the ABC’s credibility with less and less regard. Going the way of the OO.

  4. Oh, and Antonio and Hass, you could also let management know that Insiders no longer is, and if the ABC wants to be as irrelevant as the Opposition, just keep it up.

  5. Fulvio, I suspect like the non-offers for the superlative talents of Tip in a non-parliamentary context, where he might have to actually do some work, that didn’t stuff the economy, offers for the insights of the political genius that was JWH will just get cheaper and cheaper.

  6. The ABC is upset that Rudd has out performed Howard’s 11 years of international foreign policy efforts in the space of week. They are doing a little childish whine.

    But all the while they are keeping focus on Rudd’s efforts overseas so they are really shooting themselves in the foot while they think they doing something clever.

    Nelson is just making himself look even more petty and incompetent when all he can do complain about something so trivial. People will obviously understand the situation the second they see it having been in the same situation in a crowded room many times ourselves.

    I wonder what poor old Janet A. feels about Rudd thrashing to death Howard’s efforts of 11 years in less than 6 months? Three years of Rudd will make Howard’s 11 years look like a 100 days. Even the ABC thought police wont be able to hide that one away.

  7. I can’t wait for the ABC thought police to be replaced, the Liberal hack workers being moved aside and some genuine balanced reporting being bought back.

    There must be a number of ABC journos embarrassed by the current obvious Liberal support by some parts of the ABC.

    It wont happen but I would love for Rudd to split the ABC into entertainment and News/Current affairs arms and put the thought police over the entertainment side. Just imagine how much they will spew and suffer when the ABC returns to balance presentation of news.

  8. Kina,
    Agree and disagree.
    Agree that Nelson has been hopeless. Agree Rudd’s done pretty well on the trip. Agree that the press coverage of the trip has been inane.
    Disagree that there is strong evidence of ABC bias – more likely they are just going with the press releases/comments of the day, whatever they happen to be. Suspect the Govt could do a better job of managing the media, which it seems to me is a different art in govt to what it is in opposition.
    Still, it’s not as if any of this is hurting Labor at all.
    What are you going to do straight after the budget? If media coverage of salutegate is getting to you this much, budget week (when, inevitably, there’ll be plenty of criticism flying around) might kill you!

  9. Salutegate is not hurting Rudd at all I don’t think, I believe it is helping him by putting peoples focus on him being overseas doing stuff…that is what they will remember. The salute stuff is trivial.

    The same will go for the budget. Unless there is something really dumb they will have to keep slanting the trivia, but at the end of the day people forget the fine detail and, just remember the govt bought down a ‘hard’ budget which, will probably help the cause of their being seen as responsible managers in another year or so.

    I believe there is clear evidence of ABC bias, at least for the on-line news having been watching that for more than a year. But that is not likely to hurt Rudd at all. It is really the live TV stuff that affects peoples opinions as Matt Price observed after all the efforts of the murdoch press to hit at Rudd.

    Yes…it will get up my nose considerably.

  10. Bob Brown looking for some relevance? 🙂 Sorry Bob you have none.

    Mr Bush once called the former Prime Minister, John Howard, his deputy sheriff in the Asia-Pacific region. Greens Leader Bob Brown says that was a bad look then, and the salute is just as damaging.

    “This is a small thing in a way but a huge mistake by Kevin Rudd,” he said.

    “It belittles Australia. It just reminds us of John Howard and his deputy sheriff gaffe back in 2003.

    “We aren’t the 51st state of the United States – this is a proud and independent nation.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/04/2208473.htm?section=justin

  11. It’s not so much any kind of bias that pisses me off – I can’t say I’ve observed any bias – it’s the absolute lack of analytical reporting. There seems to be a focus on producing the story most likely to incite controversy, as opposed to the story that reflects what’s actually going on. I wouldn’t expect any more from commercial media, but the ABC? I expected more.

  12. Trivia is king of the news now.

    Plastic bags, Carer-beat-up, tour too long, Japan put off until later, the little salute. Pretty damning stuff that will sit long in peoples memories. Meanwhile NSW Liberals trying to kill each other, Nelson favours banks over people, Turnbull’s fantasy inflation, Qld Libs gang of 4 cant agree on anything.

    All trivial stuff – trivial attacks but even worse the Opposition seems trivial too.

    You have to wonder how it affects people’s perceptions when Nelson and Co seem to be attacking over trivial matters of little substance.

    Some have made the observation already that Nelson has no choice except to be trivial since he can’t develop his own policy platform for fear of creating anarchy within the party.

  13. Kina @ 63,
    I agree that it’s all trivial. And that Nelson has major problems and I doubt if he can solve them.
    I’m just unconvinced that this is proof of bias. Nearly all media is produced for people with one minute attention spans, by people with one minute attention spans. Naturally it follows that a slightly wacky greeting gets more airtime than troop commitments to Afghanistan.

  14. Andos

    Sadly too true.

    As someone who used to stand behind a camera when Gough Whitlam gave his weekly press conferences (CTC-TV Canberra) and spent decades on various News shows the issue is not bias. Bias is all to easy to refute.

    It is the quality of journalism – they get up in the morning and do similar things to many of us. They read the News and Fairfax web sites – that sets the agenda for the day and they all start to feed of each other.

    Who was the head lecturer in journalism at Canberra Uni? Pru Goward (and my former sister in law was the other – who’s only claim to fame was she wrote the ACT buses newsletter).

    During the elction campaign I emailed an ABC radio presenter and asked her if the “election report” was from the work experience kid – her reply was she did not get to choose.

    We need a vibrant professional media to keep all side of politics honest. Tabloid tat does our country a huge diservice. 🙁

  15. Kina, why use the ridiculous term salutegate? Do people think that adding gate to everything makes it important??

    I want to see Bush asked about whether he thinks Rudd’s conduct was unbecoming (as per Nelson), so we can have a hissy fit about the rift between the opposition and the US

  16. This will be over very shortly and noone will remember or care. Just look on the bright side, it’s Rudd, not Howard over there.

  17. I wonder if there are any pictures of Bush saluting. That would make it a little difficult for Nelson to deal with.

  18. Andrew: Kina didn’t coin ‘salutegate’. The first use of the term in this thread (I’m sure it came up elsewhere too) was at post 7, 1:54 PM today by Al.

    I believe it’s supposed to be ironic.

  19. Curious that “The Locum” has the audacity to whine about Rudd’s conducting of business with the US. My strongest recollection of the (former)Congressman for Bennelong, Fishnets Alex and his good self & the US relationship was their permanent assumption of a position …horizontal, parallel to the floor (or at least as close as their stomachs would allow) and esp post 9/11, the total suspension of credulity.

  20. Kina, why use the ridiculous term salutegate? Do people think that adding gate to e

    verything makes it important??

    Well that is the point of course. Raise something truly trivial to seem of great importance serves to highlight its stupidity. ie Plastic-bag-gate

  21. The press is just bored. And that is because they are hopeless. It is not like there is not real government waste that could be exposed with a little bit of effort. Plus the salute/wave thing was picked up by one person and then it is reported everyone else because they clearly don’t understand what the whole NATO meeting is about. Or they think that Australians are too stupid to understand.

  22. These ridiculous stories about Rudd’s salute remind me of the stories in 1992 about Paul Keating ‘manhandling’ the Queen — that is, courteously directing her to wherever it was that she was going (who cares?). Such beat-ups are all froth and bubbles signifying nothing. Chris Ulmann’s story for the ABC was one of the worst and most laboured of all these pseudo-stories.

  23. And further on the ABC’s lamentable decline. I emailed a complaint about The Insiders, asking for Piers to be superannuated from the programme on the grounds of: 1) poor intellectual capacity, 2) inability to follow arguments, 3) inability to say anything of interest re said arguments, and 4) partisan nature of his contributions. I received the following response from Kieran Doyle, Audience and consumer Affairs:

    Thank you for your email.

    The aim of the Insiders panel discussion is to canvas a range of ideas
    and allow the panellists to challenge and debate each other. Panellists
    are chosen to reflect a diverse range of views and to generate a lively
    discussion.

    Most of the Insiders panellists hold a range of views on political
    matters and the ABC is satisfied that a balanced range of perspectives
    are provided and that its audience is perfectly capable of considering
    these views and drawing their own conclusions. This approach is in
    keeping with the provisions of the ABC Code of Practice.
    http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/documents/codeprac07.pdf

    Mr Akerman’s contribution is highly valued by the program.

    Yours sincerely

    Kieran Doyle
    Audience and Consumer Affairs

  24. From memory, it was Howard himself who coined the “deputy-sheriff” tag. If, as reported above, Bush gave the first salute then surely that makes Rudd the sheriff and Bush his side-kick.

    However, just what saluting has to do with sheriffs mystifies me. I don’t recall anyone ever saluting a sheriff in any western I saw.

  25. Chris Ulmann’s story for the ABC was one of the worst and most laboured of all these pseudo-stories.

    And regarding Ullmann’s comments about the cost of keeping troops for the long haul – I don’t recall Howard being under the same kind of scrutiny by the Media ?

  26. Well that is the point of course. Raise something truly trivial to seem of great importance serves to highlight its stupidity. ie Plastic-bag-gate

    trivial indeed

    WaterGate however…

  27. “Bush gave the first salute then surely that makes Rudd the sheriff and Bush his side-kick.”

    Actually Mayo it is a sign of respect and I feel the salute has enraged the libs as they were hoping that Rudd would falter on the world stage as much as Keating said that Howard would with the Asian countries.

    However Rudd is a welcome change from the giggling fop and the xenophobe.

    The disappointing aspect is the media spin on it, but the story of Bush saluting Rudd first is out there and what are you supposed to do when a colleague or friend greets you, they wave, you wave, they stick a couple of fingers up and say how ya going ya old bastard you do the same.

    But people are not dumb clones to be easily manipulated by the media, these childish slants on so called stories will just generate more respect and support for Rudd.

  28. Is there or is there not, a bit of a consensus amongst Bludgers, that the ABC local Radio news, Online News and TV News, has gone Fafblog? Please see post on Larvartus Prodeo. Surreal as Rudd doing ‘return greeting in a sort of larrikin type fashion’. The MSM have gone bonkers. Horatio goes listening. To what?
    I’m inclined to think both the Morgan and Newspoll will go positive for the government over the next decade, because, well, the opposition, also known as the alternative government, isn’t.

  29. Vera,

    Good poimt. Knows how to talk the talk and walk the salute.

    Speaking Mandarin means he can talk to the Chinese “in their own language”.

    Rudd is a valuable Western asset. Career has only just begun.

  30. Geez, Glen, really focus on that. It will help not to focus on what a total heap of garbage the LP is at both State and Fed levels. Good luck.

  31. No but if Ruawake thinks that Rudd stopped Canada from pulling out of Afghanistan or that he was responsible for the French contributing more troops to Afghanistan he’s a goose!

    The evidence speaks for itself Harry.

    “An Australian PM addresses NATO for the first time ever, meets the French President and the Canadian PM.

    France agrees to send more troops and Canada pulls back from withdrawing troops.

    What does “call me Brendan” have to say?

    Tosser. :-P”

    Now im sorry but i thought there were some intelligent left wingers but ruawake is making you all look stupid.

    Harry just because we have garbage in the Fed and State Parliament on our side (the ALP has just as much garbage as us quite frankly) doesn’t mean i cannot point out Rudd saluted the President of the USA something Howard never did yet many of you call him W’s ‘bitch’ and that he’s achieved nothing in his 17 day trip!

  32. No but if Ruawake thinks that Rudd stopped Canada from pulling out of Afghanistan or that he was responsible for the French contributing more troops to Afghanistan he’s a goose!

    The evidence speaks for itself Harry.

    “An Australian PM addresses NATO for the first time ever, meets the French President and the Canadian PM.

    France agrees to send more troops and Canada pulls back from withdrawing troops.

    What does “call me Brendan” have to say?

    Tosser. :-P”

    Now im sorry but i thought there were some intelligent left wingers but ruawake is making you all look stupid.

    Harry just because we have garbage in the Fed and State Parliament on our side (the ALP has just as much garbage as us quite frankly) doesn’t mean i cannot point out Rudd saluted the President of the USA something Howard never did yet many of you call him W’s ‘bi%ch’ and that he’s achieved nothing in his 17 day trip!

  33. Glen, I don’t think any of us are as stupid as to think Rudd, out of his own brilliance, got an increased comitment to Afghanistan from NATO. Do not have an argument with you about stupid Labor gov’t. N.S.W being a case in point.. But I don’t live there. Live in Vic., and while I’ll kvetch mightily about the Transport Ministers, at least on the whole, the Vic. gov’t is not corrupt, mostly has the health system running reasonably well ( I know, I work there) and despite some pretty challenging things happening in the sphere of Education, at least we haven’t wanted to finger print them…so far.

  34. Harry personally I am more angry that the Liberals don’t offer effective Opposition in State politics than i am at State ALP Governments for being incompetent.

  35. Apres @ 75

    I also wrote to the ABC re the Insiders and got the exact same response – word for word. Nice to see that our comments are considered and given a tailored response according to what we wrote. NOT!

    Oh well, it saves on originality I suppose.

  36. Snapper – Aunty hasn’t gone fafblog (fafblog rocks the yooniverse in dulcet tones that only a Sugarland/Bon Jovi duet could provide I’ll have you know!), they’ve just gone down market tabloid piffle with their online headlines and half their content.

    Why is only something Mark Scott can answer – but it’s not a good look.

    For those that don’t get what the fafblog fuss is about – this is a good example of why it’s arguably the most incisive political blog ever:

    http://fafblog.blogspot.com/2005/04/when-theres-no-more-room-in-trust.html

  37. Yes, Sarkozy announced the troop increase when he was in the UK the other week. Super-Kev had nothing to do with it.

    And has anyone noticed how much Sarkozy resembles Mr Bean ? 🙂

  38. Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs at 83

    ‘Is there or is there not, a bit of a consensus amongst Bludgers, that the ABC local Radio news, Online News and TV News, has gone Fafblog’?

    Think you answered your own question, Harry. Followed up by Possum.

    I have been grumbling, so I assume I am among the discontented. Not confined, my grumbles, to those you mention. Specially discontented with Breakfast, so called, the name speaks for itself, really. Fran could do better, as I have said, but the producers are probably the real culprits.

    Will nip off now to find out what Fafblog implies.

  39. 84 Glen
    “ruawake – if you think all that was Rudd’s doing you’ve got serious problems….”

    Glen – if you think that ruawake thinks that all that was Rudd’s doing you’ve got serious problems….

    By the way – what’s the protocol when a subordinate salutes a senior?
    (Remember that the Bush clown saluted Rudd, and Rudd responded – there’s a clue in there for you)

Comments Page 2 of 7
1 2 3 7

Comments are closed.