With the election safely out of the way, we might have expected the heat to have gone out of the great blogosphere-versus-The Australian opinion poll wars. Turns out Dennis Shanahan has other ideas:
This week’s most eye-catching figures were Kevin Rudd’s 70per cent and Brendan Nelson’s 9per cent on the question of who would make the better prime minister, a Newspoll record high for a prime minister and a new low for an Opposition leader. After The Australian put the story, which I wrote, on the front page, it captured public attention and was reported, commented upon and retold in newspapers, radio, television and blogs. As Possum Comitatus said …: “While records are meant to be broken, this one was obviously meant to be smashed. Brendan Nelson has stormed into the worst preferred prime minister result in the history of Newspoll with an astonishing 9 per cent.” Peter Brent’s Mumble and William Bowe’s Poll Bludger, sites that panned the Newspoll reporting in the past, covered it without personal comment … Yet there was one key point missing from all the commentary that has previously cropped up in analysis of Newspolls: in Possum’s words, Nelson “stormed” to his rating by 2 percentage points. Rudd’s record on preferred PM was also reached by a rise of 2 percentage points. The margin of error for the Newspoll survey on a sample of 1140 is 3 percentage points. The leaders “stormed” to these records with movements of less than the margin of error. In the past, The Australian has been castigated for reporting movements of 2 per cent and placing stories on page one based on “record” lows … Statistical bloggers forever complain about reports of movements of less than 3 per cent and essentially want polls to be banished from newspapers and public debate except during an election. On this occasion, as on previous occasions, the simple news judgment was made in writing the story and placing the story, that a record, however it is attained, is newsworthy. The bloggers thought so, as they trawled the records to find Crean’s lowest reading in Newspoll and talked about the importance of the preferred prime minister figure for leaders. If Nelson’s preferred prime minister rating drops one point to a record low of 8 per cent, is that worthy of page one again? Or do we ignore that as being within the margin of error? Fat chance. Polls interest people, influence politicians and should be treated consistently.
For the record, I personally had very little to say last year about Shanahan’s Newspoll reporting. This was partly because the subject was being done to death elsewhere (not least in my own comments threads), but also because I had more sympathy than some for the idea that Labor’s bloated lead would indeed feel the effects of gravity before polling day. My post on Tuesday’s Newspoll even managed a sarcastic dig at those who paint him as a Coalition stooge.
In other news, the AEC has commenced a redistribution for Tasmania, it having gone the maximum seven years without one. The AEC’s figures respectively put enrolment in Bass, Denison and Lyons at 1.2 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent below average, with Braddon and Franklin 1.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent above. So the redistribution will presumably involve a transfer of territory from Franklin to Lyons, which is unlikely to make much difference to anyone’s electoral prospects. Changes to the more sensitive Bass and Braddon are likely to be negligible. Uniquely, Tasmanian boundary changes have effect at both federal and state level.
UPDATE: Shanahan’s central contention, that Nelson’s drop from 11 per cent to 9 per cent was within the margin of error, is questioned by David Walsh and Unicorn in comments. The latter tells us that the sampling error depends on the uniformity of the population, so the 3 per cent figure assumes a 50-50 response like you roughly get from a two-party split. Whereas the question of Nelson’s approval or non-approval in fact splits about 10-90, producing a margin of 1.7 per cent.
A few interesting statistics taken from Dennis Shanahan’s Blog.
For the last 10 articles he has averaged 46.9 comments.
The lowest figure was 11 and the average was inflated somewhat by the highest number of comments which was 74.
Today’s article is running at 39 comments which is a considerable improvement from yesterday’s which was 12.
All in all, I would suggest that Dennis is certainly struggling for relevancy even when he posts articles which are intended to be controversial but are no longer being responded to.
It serves him right for not allowing any comments that have been critical of his one-eyed stances throughout the previous 12 months.
99 Ron be that as it may, the claim by Sham-I am in this case is that Nelson has dropped to 9% from 11%. This 2% drop was less than the 3% margin of error, he claimed.
What David Walsh and Unicorn have both shown is that the margin of error is actually 1.7%. Sham-I-am’s two percent is obviously not within the margin of error as he claimed and why he bothered to write the article is a mystery.
And frankly, the issue is whether PPM was the right question anyway.
Nelson’s 40% approval rating, although still pretty poor, is probably a more relevant number for a poll taken at the end of apology week.
Another interesting issue about the Australian’s on-line Blog site is the strange disappearance of Caroline Overington from her site.
Her last posting was 2 days prior to the election, 24th November.
There has been no explanation from her boss as to why she has been absent and whether or not she is to return or been given the Channel 9 treatment.
She just might have been relegated to the reserve bench to be brought out in time for the next election to assist in Turnbull’s campaign.
All in all, I really do miss her entertaining contribution to the political scene.
yes I take your point Steve. Its just that the sudden Poll shift between 18/11 & 23/11 left me bemused & frustrated.
Dyno’s point is a good one that maybe some swinging Rudd to be voters then could not change from Howard when Polled on the eve. Maybe the questions don’t identify the degree of solid & soft voting intentions ?
perhaps Caroline being punished for that George Newhouse fracas
All a worry, Scorpio.
Albrechsten is holding the fort, though in a somewhat chastened fashion, I think.
Beware Sam Maiden though. A long time Liberal lover. Or should Caroline beware of Sam?
My local Radio Nat, MattnDave have long loved their morning media political contributors. Tony Wright, Sam Maiden in his absence. Never noticed a substitute who had a Labor lean.
Defended, did they, Caroline. To the hilt. As a worthy journalist at her low, perhaps even est, point. With remarkable reverence, piety and every nuance intended to sway the listening audience.
And our ABC is pro Labor? Not on that program.
105 Ron, it could also have been the advantage of incumbency, having staff to send out the absentee and postal votes with Tory propaganda is a huge plus. Glen, Howard and Senator Minchin were all convinced that the coalition was going to win on preferences so obvious was the advantage to them.
This has left the coalition with a lot of low hanging fruit for the taking at the next poll where the system will be to their disadvantage in 2010. Having the starters cracker in your hand is another big help. The opposition side have to guess the starting date while the Government knows.
Crikey Whitey , Rupert certainly was not impressed with Caroline’s antics & indicated disapproval.
Reading the published transcripts she seemed to have gone over the line and using satire allows one to retrospectively use satire as the defence
“This has left the coalition with a lot of low hanging fruit for the taking at the next poll”
….and we’ll gladly take it ! Hope John Faulkner or Tony Albanese rectifys the abuse of postals where the applications can go via the Party’s office etc as well as the unfair tightening of the pre polls definition
110 Is Caroline back from swanning around Paris yet? Heard she went over to sort out some rioters after the practice she had on election day.
Oh, and Ron. To my disgust, apropos my post on previous thread (loving Nicole), I hear on Tomorrow’s News that Kevin Foley is publically and to a wide audience castigating us as ‘whingers.’
Not, I think that you are a Nicole fan, but really, could Foley shut up!
Steve @ 108,
You have made a good point there.
I was quite surprised at how quickly and by how much the Labor 2 PP vote plummeted once the absentee and postal vote counts started to be accounted for.
It was surprising just how much of the absent and postal vote that the Coalition picked up given that there was no indication from the lead-up polls that that would happen.
Especially so since the postals and pre-polls were submitted prior to the polling date when the polls were showing a substantial lead to the ALP.
One must therefore conclude that the Coalition efforts in chasing postal and prepoll votes was very intense and successful.
I would have to agree with you that incumbency does seem an advantage with gaining support from postal voters as the ALP in Government were the masters at securing good returns in that regard.
I had considerable experience in that regard on behalf of the ALP and get the feeling that Labor operatives have taken their eyes off the ball somewhat in that regard in the past 8 or 9 years and the Coalition have filled the void left.
Quite a number of their current members would be very grateful for that in that it was these votes that resulted in them just scraping over the line. They may not be as fortunate next time if the ALP picks up its game and uses the advantages of incumbency to more actively chase up these votes.
absolutely Crikey.
I’ve never expressed an opinion at all before on Nicole mainly because I feel she
tried her best for the ALP & was severely savaged by the media.
I thought the media took the cheap shot at Nicole rather than responsibly question the process & criteria the ALP used to select the candidate for Boothby. Those ALP guys (who still remain publicly nameless) are the ones that got off lightly
Yes, Scorpio. I refer you, as I did Ron, to my post on the previous (Australia) thread.
Encouragingly, in compensation for Labor dunces, ABC News just reported that Alan Stockdale is elected as the new leader of the Liberal operatives. Long live the King, as they say.
glad you were involved previously Scorpio. Are you generally saying the posting of Postal vote Applications via the respective party’s offices is still an advantage to the encumbant Government or suggesting there are different advantages for postals for the encumbant ?
Crikey Whitey Says: @ 112,
[I hear on Tomorrow’s News that Kevin Foley is publicly and to a wide audience castigating us as ‘whingers.’]
Crikey, he’s probably been talking to Generic Person who seems to think that we are all a bunch of whingers and that we don’t appreciate GP having a whinge back at us.
The only problem with GP is that’s all he ever does. I did posts on this at 607 and 616 in the Newspoll thread, but I don’t think he has read them yet as there hasn’t been any explosive return mail forthcoming so far.
Or maybe he has read them and has pulled his head in a little after considering the points I raised about his method of responding to other posters.
Ron, they are not nameless. ‘They’ are Kevin Foley. But it was someone else who took the blame. In public. Labor operative, responsible for such matters. Cannot recall his name. Greek.
Scorpio. I am sorry to say that GP has nothing to do with it. He would no doubt be delighted.
In case you are not aware, Kevin Foley is the South Australian Deputy Premier, Treasurer, Minister for Industry and Trade, Minister for Federal/State Relations (just copied that from the website)
Labor, obviously.
Constantly in bother for outstanding bad behaviour.
sorry guys my replys crossed.
Crikey absolutely Foley should shut up. My sense is there were others also responsible for placing Nicole in that position which I thought was grossly unfair
to Nicole. if a person is not quite experienced then its the manager who decided who made the wrong call
Steve
“Or maybe he has read them and has pulled his head in a little after considering the points I raised about his method of responding to other posters.”
Steve , I hope you are right & one could add ESJ , but doubt it I’m afraid
Scorpio,
My hunch is that a lot of these come from retirement villages,nursing homes,etc…have anecdotal but no hard figures.
coincidently Megan my feelings are the same as yours
…anecdotal but no firm info
And further on the Foley. I don’t really appreciate being hit around the head by my Labor bouncer type. Not really working, for me. Perhaps wrongly I may think, Foley made his address to an audience present due to the Adelaide Solar Conference, attended by luminaries and speakers from across the world.
And someone told me earlier ,that MattnDave had pointed out the irony that Adelaide is at this very same moment holding the Clipsal car racing thing, whatever it is, consuming zillions of petrol, space, emitting etc.
Whinging, I know.
[My hunch is that a lot of these come from retirement villages,nursing homes,etc…have anecdotal but no hard figures.]
Also those of various religious organisations who observe the Sabbath on a Saturday, both J*ewi*h and Seventh Day Adventists – who lean towards conservative Govts.
Ron, advantage was gained from operatives using local knowledge about who would be most likely to require a postal vote and using information on prior postal voting habits from the electoral commission.
By far the biggest advantage was by chasing up postal voters on a personal basis. A friendly, helpful person from the local Branch was a big plus, especially if the intending postal voter knew that person. They usually did because the same people undertook to chase up postals election after election.
Similarly for pre-poll stations. The ALP Branch Members used to ensure that these booths were manned all day every day right from the opening of pre-poll booths until they closed just prior to the election.
From my observations, that has slipped considerably in recent elections. I remember manning a booth at an island resort a number of years ago for the ALP.
As the voters there were almost all absentee voters, they appreciated that the ALP were the only party thoughtful enough to provide a booth worker there.
In appreciation of the help offered in identifying candidates in their respective electorates, they chose to provide a 100% vote to Labor from that one booth.
thx Scorpio ….was not aware of those skills & techniques used so well
it makes your earlier post very compelling positve advice for the ALP
The nursing homes etc Megan re Scorpio.
Do you mean to imply irregularity?
I reported on a perceived irregularity in a Boothby nursing home. MayoFeral and another poster, whose identity escapes me, responded to my first mention on Pollbludger. The mysterious case of the votes and the nursing home.
Whilst nothing is yet known about the perceived irregularities, I am pleased to report that I have in my hand a clipping from today’s paper reporting that the owner of the nursing home has lost his accreditation and that the home is being taken over by another organisation. The loss of accreditation is not due to electoral matters, far more serious and recently mysterious, coroner and all.
Crikey Whitey, From something you said some time back, I believe you live quite near my inlaws.
My brother and sister in law live in Boothby also so I know where Nicole gained at least 5 votes.
Ah! I think I can name it, seeing as it has been on TV, the papers and so on. It is Brighton Retirement Home, I think now called. Formerly St Catherine’s. Name changed to protect the owners. Corner of Brighton Road and Mills St.
[The nursing homes etc Megan re Scorpio.
Do you mean to imply irregularity?]
It was all proper and beyond reproach when I was involved Crikey, but I have strong suspicions in regard to the manner in which the NLP operatives go about things.
I suppose filling out ballot papers on behalf of frail, elderly people especially those suffering from dementia etc is only being helpful, but I am in no way in favour of it.
I strongly suspect that the LNP have no qualms about helping out as much as possible and in no way could they be considered to be helping themselves to a clutch of easy votes.
{It is Brighton Retirement Home,]
Yeah, lovely poeple running it. Doctors, I believe.
Scorpio, I hunted in my computer for my first, well, allegation, but I have no record. Fool, am I. It is in William, somewhere, so I will locate it.
In sum, I discerned that something like 170 votes were recorded for the home, not in Nicole’s favor. I rang the home to ascertain the exact number of resident capacity. Something like, cripes, fifty or sixty. I reported this to Chloe Fox, State Member for Bright.
Yeah, it is only a small operation. Certainly nowhere near 170 inmates there for sure.
I think around the 60 mark may even be a bit high.
With a bit of digging around, I think you could find similar situations right around the country.
Dennis Shanahan’s latest Blog.
[AS the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade faces the task of cutting $57 million from its budget as its contribution to the cost-cutting, anti-inflationary fight, there is a grim observation about former diplomats who become ministers.
Foreign affairs officials bemoan that as a former diplomat Alexander Downer was always keen to demonstrate his readiness to cut costs as part of his aspiration to one day become treasurer. Now DFAT has to bear the burden of a former diplomat who is Prime Minister and wants to take a meat axe to the “bloated bureaucracy”. After 11 years of pruning, they feel unjustifiably put-upon to find savings through personnel reductions. ]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/welcome_to_the_world/
I am more concerned about former ministers who become diplomats. The amount of taxpayers money spent to ensure that people like Mandy are afforded the luxury to which they are unaccustomed is appalling.
Whatever, Scorpio, I had the exact figures. And 50 is likely close.
The other poster and I were having an occasional exchange about the potential for
mmmh, ‘rigging’ votes in aged care facilities. Which ultimately led to my examination of homes in my area.
Brighton was outstanding, as it had no associate homes.
And yes, it is, now was, owned and run by a married couple, both doctors. Who were in trouble before, and more deeply recently, as they certified a cause of death of a resident, called into question by the nurses, but unable to be taken further, as the deceased was cremated.
Now, legally, no wrongdoing can be imputed. But. The Coroner had cause to be disturbed at the conflict of interest, though no law was broken.
I assume that pressure has been applied, via HAAC if not others. Resulting in loss of accreditation. Sale of asset.
A friend of mine had worked in that home, a couple of years ago, as the sole nurse on overnight duty.
She refused to return.
And before I forget, Scorpio, I live near the Brighton Jetty just back from the Esplanade. Esplanade Pub nearerst. I’ll look out for your brother. Does he wear a rose in his lapel?
[She refused to return.]
I can understand that, considering concent was given to allow that cremation “PRIOR” to any Death Certificate being issued by – a Doctor who runs the place. Mmmmm
In-law. No, he’s not into flowers. He lives not far from the Sailing Club.
Used to spend time crabbing on the old jetty when he was younger.
The in-laws live on Broadway.
Broadway? South Brighton, my former family home. Tell him I am a McKeen.
[Esplanade Pub nearerst]
Had a number of schooners of Coopers there last time we were down.
Must catch up with you next time and either have a few pots or a coffee at Marylin’s or the place on the corner.
They would know you because they were one of the first to move in there when the estate opened.
Everyone was Aunt or Uncle. My wife is ringing her parents tomorrow and I will get her to mention you to them.
Results will be on-line tomorrow evening, sorry, this evening.
Cheers, I think it is a bit past my bed time and I need some beauty sleep.
In my case, probably a lot.
Truly amazing. I will look tomorrow night.
My wife is still awake and remembers the name although she has been gone from there for many years.
Did your parents move to WA?
Crickey, don’t get me wrong, love your politics, and agree with most of your views.
But I feel I have to ask you, are you related to Yoda? The linguistic similarities are profound.
I am not quite sure what is happening in this country, but things appear to be tipped somewhat upside down since the election.
Decided to fully read the latest Blog by Shanahan and was shocked to find that it is probably the best article he has written for ages. And reasonably balanced too.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/welcome_to_the_world/
Welcome to the world alright. He’s trying very hard to be noticed at the moment.
Way to go (some).
No, Scorpio, my parents are dead and the house at 1 Broadway, just a little back from Brighton Road, has been torn down and replaced by some modern debacles, about a year ago. I am one of twelve children, hence a certain infamy in the street. The Delahuntys, Lewises, Edwards, Aitchsons, Asshetons, Dykes, Whites are or were closest. Though numerous others up the street were known.
Fulvio, don’t know. Who is Yoda?
Doesn’t matter Crickey, just my silly joke. Yoda was a character from the Skywars movies who mangled his English by frequently putting his verbs after his nouns.
Poor Janet Albrechtson has been copping an awful pasting on her Blog.
Some of the best comments I have come across are tearing right into her and are well worth a read. Guaranteed.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_opposition_has_lost_the_emotional_plot/P25/
Oh how the mighty fall.
Crikey, the in-laws live just the other side of the little park.
I’ll get back to you this evening.
Love to meet up with Tim Dunlop next time we come down too. He doesn’t live all that far away either.