In Melbourne as elsewhere, the November 24 election produced a pattern of strong swings in outer suburbs and weak ones nearer the city, which cut across the partisan divide. The swing against veteran Liberal moderate Petro Georgiou in blue-ribbon Kooyong was just 0.05 per cent, while Peter Costello faced a similarly mild 1.7 per cent shift in neighbouring Higgins. This pattern carried over to the conservative dead zone of Melbourne, which swung only 1.1 per cent in Labor-versus-Liberal terms. However, the real story here was Greens candidate Adam Bandt’s success in edging out the Liberal candidate to take second place. The Greens’ primary vote was up 3.8 per cent to 22.8 per cent, 0.7 per cent behind the Liberals. This gap was bridged after distribution of minor party preferences, with Bandt leading the Liberal candidate 21,996 (25.1 per cent) to 21,405 (24.4 per cent) at the second last exclusion. Liberal preferences then took Bandt to within 4.7 per cent of victory, producing the first ever “Labor versus Greens” two-party result in a federal seat at a general election. This is the first time Melbourne has met the AEC’s definition of a marginal seat (6 per cent or less) since 1904.
Beyond the swing-resistant inner core of Melbourne, Kooyong and Higgins lay a band of seats separating it from the volatile outer suburbs. Batman followed the broader pattern of mild swings of around 4 per cent in inner suburban Northcote, and heavier ones of 6 per cent to 7 per cent at Preston and Reservoir further to the north. The Greens’ vote was up 3.2 per cent to 17.2 per cent, a potentially bridgeable 3.4 per cent behind the Liberals. Jagajaga, Chisholm and Menzies produced near identical swings of 4.6 per cent to 4.7 per cent, respectively staying safe for Labor’s Jenny Macklin and Anna Burke and the Liberals’ Kevin Andrews. On the bayside, Melbourne Ports produced a relatively gentle 3.4 per cent swing which was nonetheless the biggest movement in the electorate since 1993, while its safe Liberal neighbour Goldstein swung 4.0 per cent.
The two biggest swings were in the Melbourne area were in the outer suburban suburbs of Calwell in the north and Holt in the south-east. Calwell topped the table at 11.1 per cent, with swings topping 15 per cent at Craigieburn on the outermost urban fringe. The 10.1 per cent swing in Holt was most pronounced in the south, peaking with a mighty 17.5 per cent swing at the electorate’s largest booth of Narre Warren South. Swings in the north were in the range of 5 per cent to 9 per cent. In what might be regarded as the defining booth result of the election, a 10.96 per cent swing to Labor was recorded at Kath and Kim’s home of Fountain Gate.
Labor added some fat to a number of margins in traditionally safe south-eastern seats that were cut uncomfortably fine in 2004. After previous member Ann Corcoran suffered an unexpectedly close shave in 2004, newcomer Mark Dreyfus boosted the Labor margin from 1.5 per cent to 7.7 per cent in Isaacs, which produced heavier swings in the inland suburbs of Keysborough and Carrum Downs than along the coast. Immediately to the north, Simon Crean increased his margin from 7.4 per cent to 13.0 per cent in Hotham, with particularly strong swings recorded in Springvale. In Bruce the swing to Labor was an evenly distributed 4.8 per cent, increasing Alan Griffin’s margin to 8.3 per cent.
Liberal seats in the eastern suburbs mostly followed the trend of their Labor-held neighbours. Only in the case of Deakin was the swing enough for a seat to change hands, Labor winning the seat for only the second time since its creation in 1937. Their candidate Mike Symon picked up 5.7 per cent on the primary vote and 6.4 per cent on two-party preferred to prevail with a margin of 1.4 per cent, ending the 11-year parliamentary career of Liberal member Phil Barresi. Labor achieved an identical swing further afield in McEwen, which was famously 12 votes short of what was needed to unseat Fran Bailey. The swing peaked at South Morang (10.6 per cent) and Wallan Wallan (9.1 per cent), but there was no clearly discernible pattern to its distribution. Labor’s other disappointment was a 5.3 per cent swing in La Trobe that fell 0.5 per cent short of delivering them the seat. The Dandenong Ranges formed a rough dividing line between suburbs on the city side where the swing was in the order of what Labor required, and the hill suburbs and surrounding small towns where it fell just short at around 4 per cent.
On safer ground for the Liberals, Bruce Billson’s seat of Dunkley returned to the marginal zone with a swing of 4.2 per cent that was felt more heavily in Frankston than Mornington and Mount Eliza. In outer suburban and semi-rural Casey, Tony Smith suffered a 5.4 per cent swing that was higher in suburban Croydon and Kilsyth than in the satellite towns of Monbulk and Woori Yallock. It is interesting to note a particularly sharp 8.1 per cent swing in Aston, which memorably gave the Liberals a bigger margin in 2004 than Kooyong. Any thoughts that this might have marked a long-term realignment can now be laid to rest, as the respective margins are now 5.0 per cent and 9.5 per cent.
Labor’s safe seats in the west and north of Melbourne produced remarkably consistent swings of between 5.5 per cent to 6.7 per cent, excepting the aforementioned Calwell. Wills followed the pattern of neighbouring Batman in producing smaller swings of around 4 per cent at Brunswick at the southern end nearer the city, increasing to around 7 per cent at Glenroy in the north. Bill Shorten’s candidacy appeared not to make much difference one way or the other in Maribyrnong, which swung to Labor by a locally typical 5.8 per cent which was evenly distributed through the electorate. There was similarly consistency in the swings in Gellibrand (6.5 per cent), Gorton (6.3 per cent) and Lalor (6.7 per cent).
You’re not being terribly constructive, Brenton.
Diogenes @ 521
Cortical neurogenesis in adult monkeys may not be as clear cut as whatever research you’re quoting may suggest, and it almost certainly doesn’t create new neurons in the cortex of humans, at least not cells that survive for any useful length of time.
Probably the most authoritative study into this is by Jonas Frisen of the Karolinska Institute and colleagues. He used Carbon-14 levels in neurons to calculate their age. Dividing cells take in C-14 only during division and in quantities proportionate to the amount in the organism’s surroundings. C-14 levels spiked after each of the Cold-War atmospheric nuclear bomb tests so these can be used as markers to determine when the cell was created. Frisen et al found a clear correlation between the amount of C-14 in the tested cortical neurons and atmospheric C-14 levels at the time the individuals were born, pretty much proving that cell division rarely if ever occurs afterwards.
Frisen et al did make two qualifications: 1) The resolution limits of their equipment meant that they might have missed a few cells (<1%), however, they calculate this limits the amount of new cells that could be generated to a max of 0.007% in a 5 year period, and 2) earlier research on monkeys (Gould E et al, 2001) found that while new cells may sometimes be generated these are short-lived. If this also occurs in humans Frisen calculates the neurons would have a life span of <4.2 months. This probably addresses one of the points you raise.
David Fink, one of ANSTO’s principle scientists was a collaborator on this research and can provide you with more information – email: david.fink-AT-ansto.gov.au (replace -AT- with @).
The paper is available online: http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/103/33/12564
Neurogenesis has so far only been shown to naturally occur in the dentate gyrus region of the human hippocampus, and possibly, the olfactory bulb. However, the heat generated by proponents for and against the latter make the Oz/Indian cricket teams spat appear almost genteel.
Glen,
I gather that the standard presidential hopeful’s policy position is something like: “We are united and will win back this great country of ours and go onwards to victory and decency and do so without fear or favour or malice. We will put aside the old ways, the establishment ways and govern for all Americans. Join with me in this great campaign to rebuild and renew America, the greatest country on Earth, to make it a place that all its citizens can be proud of.”
It intrigues me that so many Americans become president after being governors, rather than after being senators. And now, being a mayor is enough?
Asanque
Rudd well he hasn’t really done anything as PM other than go to the First Days of the Melbourne and Sydney Test Matches and see the fireworks at Kirribilli so not much to comment about his performance but he sure is enjoying the high life atm lol. We’ll soon see the measure of Rudd in a few months because he’ll have a hostile Senate throughout his first term and alot of ‘green’ Ministers.
His lack of leadership experience will hurt him but we’re yet to see him in action and anyway the best time to judge such a thing would be 2010 when either Nelson, Bishop or Turnbull is running the Party lol!.
Alls i know is my petrol prices are going higher and Mr Rudd’s petrol commissioner isn’t lowering them lol 😉
BTW i wonder how long it is before we see Rudd v Nelson in Parliament oh and also BTW i don’t like Family First either just so you know. 😉
603
Chris Curtis – lol true but i suppose it’s because Governors have executive experience whereas Senators have none, even Giuliani has been a leader all be it of a city but Edwards, Obama and Clinton have not ever been a leader before.
Glen,
Given that the US is the world’s most powerful nation, I can see an advantage in a president who has had some experience of the rest of the world, something that governors and mayors do not really have. Neither the terrorist attack on New York nor having the UN in the city qualifies the mayor, no matter what executive power he has exercised.
Glen: I think he did a reasonable job at the Bali conference.
Many said that even if we ratified the Kyoto treaty, the US would still go their own way.
However, it seems being isolated resulted in the US actually compromising slightly at the Bali conference.
I think we’ve all seen the results of 8+ years of Bush and Howard.
I’m looking forward to 8+ years of Rudd and Obama 🙂
I know you don’t like Family First, and you are an agnostic/atheist?
This surprises me that you support the republicans, given the right wing republicans are so predominantly religious nut jobs 😛
However, I guess your right leaning tendences override small speed bumps 🙂
Not that the Democrats are much better.
You think Nelson will last until the next election? I’m expecting a Turnbull challenge.
Keep up the updates on the US election, its good reading. 🙂
Hey Glen… old chap,
What would you reckon if Mr T. broke away and formed another political force?
Would you support this???
There is 43% of the population that has been disfranchised…what the hell are you guys going to do about it?….Whinge…?
I apologise William! I have a thing about ‘religious people’. It’s best if I dont comment about them. The influence that they have in political circles and the effects that they have over peoples lives is enormous. I have fought my whole life to overcome particular forms of discrimination , William, so I become very passionate and PROBABLY not very constructive. But, I do note that just because someone says that they belong to a Religion , then they become a protected species. I wish I have been afforded that luxury during my life!
MayoFeral- Frankly, I’m very perturbed to get my neurophysiology PhD (it was 1995) trumped on neurogenesis on a political blog!!!
My reference is Neurogenesis in the neocortex of adult primates. Science. 2000 May 5;288(5467):771. by Gould et al. It has been questioned though but then again, what hasn’t!
MFeral @602
[Neurogenesis has so far only been shown to naturally occur in the dentate gyrus region of the human hippocampus, and possibly, the olfactory bulb.]
No, it suits my circumstances to insist my specialist was right (Diogenes), when he said that the frontal lobe neurons can regenerate. Still it’s good to know from your above excerpt that I’ll be able to remember what I smell with my regenerated bulb.
Scraper we’ve seen what happens when a strong political Party splits and it aint something you do unless you feel like being in Opposition for more than 20 years.
Mr. T won’t because Mr. T wants to be Prime Minister how could he form a Party that would win 76 seats????
Well Scraper i suppose you’ve heard the old joke about the difference between a bleeding heart left winger and a puppy…a puppy stops whining after it grows up. LOL but we tories will be looking forward to the day when we win back NSW or WA in future and then we’ll see…but until then we tories can only yell at the TV about Rudd this and Rudd that that’s all we got now.
It appears the Lib/Nat merger has dropped off the airwaves maybe it’s dead and buried?
I suppose it depends on how well Nelson goes, Rudd doesn’t have the same empitus to govern well for there is no one to take over from him just yet, but Nelson has Turnbull, J. Bishop and Tony Abbott potentially all wanting a go. All i ask of Nelson is not to go back any further and pick up a couple of gains in 2010 i don’t expect us to win unless there is a recession and it’s have to be one we had to have to have an impact.
Dear bludgers,
before this site turns into a God V God haters/atheist debate and we troll over history with general brushes to make a “valid point” lets put something into prospective. Human beings when in power if on a religious or atheist platform can abuse their office to suit their own ends contrary to the basic belief structure that is to help your fellow human.
Two cases in point –
* the inquisition was brought about by “mother church” to persecute, kill & rob those who wanted to be free of her so she could hold her power. Quite on the contrary to the teaching of “love your enemies & pray for those who use you” – How many millions where lost?
* when communism ruled USSR, China, Kampuchea & North Korea tell me how many millions died under Stalin, Mao tse-tung, Pol Pot & Kim Il sung? Isn’t this ideology suppose to distribute to to their own needs? Now these are atheist.
Is does not matter what the label is, Bad men are BAD men. There are good people who believe in God as well as good people who believe in nothing as well as good people who believe in anything.
Why paint every one with the same brush & do a dump job on them or is that humans are just generally rotten?
Omg. How can people criticise Rudd already?
News Flash!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Yes Glen i mean u)
“PARLIAMENT” has not sat yet. It would be extremley unreasnable and biased to judge a governments performance before it has sat yet geeeeez. Have you forgot it is the holidays.
Hey Brenton
We are all religious in some way because that is the life-force that drives us.
To me religion is about morals and beliefs.
God does not come into the equation for many of us.
It is best to live and let live…it can be achieved I reckon mate.
I’ll tell you guys something…my business name is scapers, hence the three dots for the people who know Morse.
What I have noticed over the many years…is being called scraper!!!
I have come to the conclusion that the letters confuse people…and I’m also talking about the so-called intelligent clients.
Just Google scaper…
scaper, after your delightful comments and a needed glass of wine , I have returned to a renewed spiritual plane! I will leave the conversations to the very ‘serious’ regular Poll Bludgers and will read with interest their comments, especially about the looming American situation in New Hampshire!
William I think you should also be doing a comparison of the previous swing in 2004 in order to gain a better perspective of the oscillation direction and frequency of the swing. It is also worth comparing the outcome with the 2006 State seat. I know the old wisdom is that voters vote different on state as to federal but the more I look at the past results the more I begin to question this wisdom. A comparison between the two can and will show the core part support base which needs to be taken into consideration if your dosing a high/low comparison. The 2004 Election is a good comparison as it shows more or less beyond doubt that Labor lost that election on its choice of leader. Where in 2007 Labor’s leadership team was much more appealing to the electorate. That couples with the fact that John failed to initiate a hand over and every one felt his time had come to an end. (Even Bennelong was of that view)
Analysis of the green vote needs to also reflect on the reduction of support for minor parties. The Greens picked up primarily from the decline in minor party support but overall they did not do as well as they did in 2004. Where as Family first held their position coming fourth in the Senate count.
Put your hard hats on – it will be trench warfare after New Hampshire.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/06/shaken-clinton-camp-prepa_n_80125.html
538
Jen @ 538 Says:
The nearest recent example would be John F. Kennedy and we know how that turned out 🙁
It seems The School Prefect (Bishop) has been outvoted 🙂
[OPPOSITION frontbencher Chris Pyne has promised the Coalition will support Labor’s industrial laws in the Senate.
Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson last year declared the former government’s Work Choices laws dead but Mr Pyne appears to be the first shadow minister to unequivocally state Senate backing for the new IR legislation.
In December, Dr Nelson indicated that the Opposition position – particularly in relation to unfair dismissal provisions for small business – would depend on the detail of the legislation.
“We will make a judgment on (whether we support) it when we actually see the legislation,” he said at the time.
But Mr Pyne was today more categorical about Opposition support for the laws.
He suggested Labor need not fear getting its industrial relations laws through the Senate, even though the coalition would retain control of the upper house until June 30.
He dismissed claims the Coalition would be obstructive and block Labor policy.
“We’ve already announced that we won’t be trying to stop Labor from changing Work Choices or the unfair dismissal laws in the Senate,” Mr Pyne told ABC radio.
“Brendan Nelson, the new leader of the Opposition, has made it clear that we recognise that the Australian public sent a very clear message to us in the Liberal Party about Work Choices at the last election.
“We’ve heard that message and we are not going to oppose Labor’s changes in the Senate.]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23018008-5005361,00.html
Brenton,
We had some ‘strongly felt ‘ discussions re Christian Fundamentalism on this site not too long ago, and like you, I found it difficult to write in a non-inflammatory way because of personal experience.
From memory,there are others who share your view(and passion),though can understand William needing to keep a lid on things.
Another interesting statistic to look at is where did each of the Minor Party votes split in terms of Labor/Liberal. It makes a mockery of the Greens and Democrats split ticket. the 50/50 Split clearly does not reflect their support base intentions.
Glen @ 604 says:
“Rudd well he hasn’t really done anything as PM other than go to the First Days of the Melbourne and Sydney Test Matches and see the fireworks at Kirribilli so not much to comment about his performance but he sure is enjoying the high life atm lol.”
Is that really the best your lot can offer? It is no wonder that they were treated with the contempt they deserved. Get over it Glen, we finally have a leader who has captured the imagination in a way your tired and cliched mob never could. If you want to talk petrol prices, look no further than your hero who is presently the incumbent in the White House (pro tem). Every time a Bush has been president, the price of oil has gone through the roof. The fact that this hideous family has its roots in the ‘bidness’ is, of course, incidental!
Megan 622 , Thanks for your comments! Amazingly, Senate Watch has brought me ‘down to earth’ and also my sense of humour has returned!
602
MayoFeral Says:
Neurogenesis has so far only been shown to naturally occur in the dentate gyrus region of the human hippocampus, and possibly, the olfactory bulb. However, the heat generated by proponents for and against the latter make the Oz/Indian cricket teams spat appear almost genteel.
Hah! Neurogenesis is a polite Sunday afternoon tea party for timid academics compared to the brutal turf wars going on over the so called ‘functional somatic syndromes’ (aka psychosomatosis, hysterical conversion, MUPS, etc, whatever term they are using this week).
You better be wearing the best armour modern science can provide, and have your affairs in order and your life insurance paid up, if you are going to venture into that area of medicine. Trust me, I have the scars to prove it, and I am about to dive back in for another round, noble truth-seeking masochist that I am. 😉
At least the neurogenesis debates are mostly confined to the research setting, and the patients are usually left out of it.
Ah Senate Watch – back again?
On about split tickets again – I’m thinking you’re talking about Senate GVT’s coz we all know that HTV’s for the HoR’s is just a recommendation. Now I don’t recall a Greens split GVT – do you?
On falling minor party vote – yes, the trend of the last 30 years has reversed of late, mostly down to the collapse of the Democrats, but also the fragmentation of the right vote (PHON notwithstanding – but PHON masked the falling Democrat vote to some extent in overall minor party votes). But to suggest the Greens didn’t do as well as in 2004 – I am perplexed! I can only assume you mean that they didn’t increase their HoR’s vote as significantly as in 2004 – but they did increase it in a very polarised election. In the Senate the vote was up 1.37% according to the AEC – that’s not bad when starting from 7.67%. But again, I assume you are suggesting that the magnitude of the rise is not as large as in 2004?
And Family First? Their national votes did not increase, but fell (even if marginally). 1.62% in the Senate is not an what I’d call a world beater, especailly when you consider the CDP vote also fell. My strongest impression was of a patchy election for them. A good rise in Vic (handy having a sitting Senator, eh!) was offset by a crunching fall in SA & QLD (over 1% in both cases).
Diogenes @ 610 –
After I retired I did some work with veterans with mental illnesses which blossomed into maintaining an anxiety & depression news blog. The, admittedly little, I know of neurogenesis was initially sparked by the fact that it probably is how antidepressants work, and then getting my fingers spanked by several leading experts in the field after I misrepresented their research in an article. They then kindly took time to educate me on the finer points.
Liz Gould also coauthored the later study referenced by Fisen which found that neurons produced by neurogenesis only have a “transient existence” The PubMed extract is at: http://tinyurl.com/2nay4r
jaundiced view @ 611 – There is nothing in science that should be considered as being worthy of chiseling into stone. It’s possible new research will disprove everything I’ve written, though I wouldn’t count on it.
However, you may be able to limit the damage by taking antioxidants before and after hitting the turps, plus keeping fluid (water) levels up. And Milk Thistle extract really can help the liver repair itself. N-Acetyl-Cysteine supplements may also help, especially if you take paracetamol (acetaminophen) to ease hangovers. It’s used to treat overdoses which kill by slowly, inexorably ‘frying’ the liver.
**Note to anyone who might get unfortunate ideas from the above – paracetamol OD is a really, really horrible way to exit life!
Frank
“We’ve already announced that we won’t be trying to stop Labor from changing Work Choices or the unfair dismissal laws in the Senate,” Mr Pyne told ABC radio. ”
Smart move by the libs, Work Choices cost them in the state elections in Vic, Qld and NSW as well of course federally.
We had the state lib oppositions and at times Costello saying that they would protect workers from Work Choices whilst the federal libs were saying how great it was. Pu Goward said it was worth at least 5% and cost them gaining seats in NSW.
If the libs did not kill Work Choices dead it would continue to hurt and haunt them in 08, 09 and probably 10.
Letting all of labors changes through places all of any problems with the changes in labors camp.
It will not be a smooth implementation as businesses have to negotiate CAs on a fair basis and offer employees fair terms as well as treat their employees like human beings instead of disposable inputs.
very interesting story on large demographic change in one of the most northern Southern States: Virginia. With its juicy 13 electoral college votes.
http://www.ncec.org/electioninsider/election_10_11_07.html
The pretty graphs pretty much sum it up. If they win it, then they would only need one more medium sized state to win. Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri or Indiana would be enough to seal the deal no matter which democrat won. Or two of the winnable smaller states with more than 4 electoral votes 🙂
That is as long as they don’t do something stupid like loose wisconsin 😛
Hmm, a discussion of simian neurophysiology at Pollbludger. This breaks new ground in “off topic.” Is William, like me, having a holiday? Anyway, I think I will conceal my vast erudition on this subject so as not to arouse further jealousy among the Bludger community.
Politics: It seems the Hon Christopher Maurice Pyne is finding his true vocation in opposition, making the transition from towel-boy to statesman in one balletic leap. Do I descry a Turnbull-Pyne ticket in the offing, a marriage of the Australian Club and the Adelaide Club? That’ll put the class back in the class war, what?
628
MayoFeral Says:
However, you may be able to limit the damage by taking antioxidants before and after hitting the turps, plus keeping fluid (water) levels up. And Milk Thistle extract really can help the liver repair itself. N-Acetyl-Cysteine supplements may also help, especially if you take paracetamol (acetaminophen) to ease hangovers. It’s used to treat overdoses which kill by slowly, inexorably ‘frying’ the liver.
If we are talking avoiding hangovers (from commercial, mass-produced booze), there is one very easy and effective way, only drink vodka or gin. Seriously. A hangover is almost entirely caused by other components in booze, not the ethanol (though enough ethanol on its own will still leave its mark the next day).
Adam- Turnbull and Pyne are both “wets” and would be unlikely to get up without a major meltdown from the Right. There are many rumours of Pyne transferring to State politics given his drubbing in the deputy note.
Adam
Pyne is very vulnerable, only needs 800 people to change their vote or preference, less than 1% and he is gone.
He is obviously thinking ahead to 10 or 11, not so much as winning government as saving his seat.
http://www.politicalcompass.org/test
Apologies if this site has already come up, but I find it fascinating. The premise of the test is that left / right is no longer a meaningful dichotomy and that it is more useful to see where people site on a quadrant. The site owners have profiles major world leaders including Howard but not Rudd.
All those “tests” are grossly biased and meaningless. I generally find less than half the questions answerable, since the correct answer usually is “it depends on the circumstances” or “it depends on how you define the terms.” Take question one of the test CL refers to: “If economic globalisation is inevitable, it should primarily serve humanity rather than the interests of trans-national corporations.” The question assumes that there is a dichotomy between “humanity” and “the interests of trans-national corporations.” Obviously most conservatives would reject that assumption, so they can’t answer the question.
If economic globalisation is inevitable, it should primarily serve humanity rather than the interests of trans-national corporations.”
Milo would have the answer.
Just Me-
in my younger days working in Alcohol and Drug rehab programs a number of (now dead) clients found metho to be a good way of avoiding additives. Could have been the passiona of course.
well, I must say what with neuorphysiology, United States elections. religion and the inevitable bleatings of Senatewatch, Pollbludgers is becoming a veritable chocolate box of treats – (the senatewatch bits: that’s like the turkish delight.)
Back for a moment to Obama – not having had the ime or inclination this evening to trawl the sites an I ask for an update on NH?
and I really can’t resist –
GWB at New Hampshire Jan 27,2000
“I know how hard it is for you to put food on your family.”
638
thatbwould be Time and Can.
sheesh.
with no ‘b ‘between that and would.
Fks sake.
Constant Lurker
Good to see you here.
No form, no spurn…I’m sure it will eventuate.
Adam @ 631 – How many years would I get for bribing 801 Lib voters to switch their vote in 2010/11? It would be almost worth doing a year or two in one of Her Majesty’s establishments to see off the second most annoying little @#$% in Fed politics. And a couple of decades to do the same to the most annoying, Milord Downer of Mayo.
I predict Hillary will win NH. Why? Because on the debate yesterday, John Edward “ganged up” with Obama to have a go at Hillary. I am quite sure that Obama wasn’t too pleased about it, judging from his expression.
I predict Hillary won’t win NH.
She is $5 at the bookies compared to $1.10 for Obama.
All polls are pointing to Obama.
Why wouldn’t Obama be pleased at Edwards backing him up?
Please explain.
Although Edwards is ideologically closer to Obama than Hillary, they are all playing tactics at this stage. The fact that Edwards locked in with Obama, and even Republicans like Huck are saying they admire him (not to mention McCain today claiming that he could beat him) shows just how successful Obama’s tactics and presentation are. He is way in front. All bookies have him firming incredibly. The Gallup poll of today has him 41-28 in front of Hillary in NH. She has no chance in NH and will need to go away for a regroup and tactical readjustment before Feb5 if she wants to remain in the race.
Maybe she’ll need to get Bill involved more? I’m sure she’d hate to do that though.
Some one told me this afternoon that if Obama is going to be attacked for a perceived lack of experience then perhaps he could form an alliance with Al Gore and be able to borrow his former vice President credentials while Al does his save the world from Global Warming thing.
The Finnigans-
not sure that I understand. You appear to be saying (correct me if I’m wrong) that Hillary will win because her rivals are strongly opposing her?
ie: she would lose if they supported her?
I’m pretty sure that Al wouldn’t want to play straight man to another charismatic leader. I think that if he chooses to throw his hat in the ring now it will only be because he thinks he can win. And that seems pretty remote with such a strong field. Had it shaped up like 2004 he’d have been in in no time. But it is more likely that he’ll wait for President Obama to make him some sort of Secretary for the environment now.