Newspoll: Turnbull 34, Nelson 18

The standout finding of a very interesting post-election Newspoll survey of 1125 voters is a question on preferred Liberal leader: 34 per cent responded for Turnbull, just 18 per cent for Nelson and 14 per cent for Julie Bishop, with the optimistic Tony Abbott on 9 per cent. Rudd predictably is streets ahead of Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister, leading 61 per cent to 14 per cent (91 per cent to 1 per cent among Labor voters).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,259 comments on “Newspoll: Turnbull 34, Nelson 18”

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  1. 1172: Glen
    Not in the HoR. I was trying to be ironic. Sorry for wasting your time. Do love your work though – the most decent tory I’ve never met – and perhaps one of the most realistic commentators here

  2. The danger of FF is the same problem the DLP was in the 50’s and 60’s

    They were a Catholic based Party whose Leadership ordered successfully preferencing against the ALP.

    Their 10% vote kept the ALP out of Federal power
    The DLP voters followed their leadership IRRESPECTIVE of whether Labor was offering better schools , roads and hospitals

  3. And Abetz – – – – – well… the less he says the better. I still find it amazing that Tasmania (jokes & nonrealistic assumptions aside) can produce someone that far to the right.

  4. What annoyed me more than anything during the Howard years was the way that healthy community groups were defunded and the money handed over to church groups to run. So come election day the church organisations had a reason to thank Howard and co at the ballot box.

    The churches have a natural advantage when it comes to filling out grant applications and being big enough to provide services over large areas than groups of hard working volunteers or localised groups. Howard Ministers ruthlessly exploited this organisational bias towards funding church groups rather than grow and strengthen community based groups.

  5. GG study a little history before you say stupid. Go back as far as the priest-kings of Sumer, then take it up to today, suicide bombers and the rest of it. Religion was invented by the exploiters, and for that purpose. Philosophy is a much sounder basis.

  6. 1201 [I was trying to be ironic. Sorry for wasting your time. Do love your work though – the most decent tory I’ve never met – and perhaps one of the most realistic commentators here]

    Don’t be so harsh on him Stuart!!!

  7. Socrates – 1120. Fielding of FF voted against WorkChoices.
    Megan – 1189. Abbott does not support Catholic teachings. He disregards Papal Encyclical Rerum Novarum and many others which support the right of workers to organise collectively through unions rather than be forced to negotiate individual contracts. When it suits him he completely ignores Catholic social teachings.

  8. Bushfires raged, SA. Young man dead. KI.

    Ban on new bores, finally, though not for existing.

    Advertiser, What the Papers Say.

    Bloggers having an impact?

  9. Beautiful googly Stuart. Glenn Gatting — clean bowled — Stuart.
    From irony to pure sarcasm with a wrong’un display rarely seen since the retirement of the greatest spinner of all time.

    [I was trying to be ironic. Sorry for wasting your time. Do love your work though – the most decent tory I’ve never met – and perhaps one of the most realistic commentators here]

  10. Crikey…what are you talking about??? The only thing I understood was a ban on new bores – which probably explains why Nelson brought an old bore like Bronwyn back to the front bench.

  11. 1216 [and perhaps one of the most realistic commentators here]

    I could’t decide if it was the ‘perhaps’ or the ‘realistic’ that reduced me to laughter, but a great spinner has been unearthed for sure.

  12. Oh Dear, they learn nothing these Queensland Libs.

    NEW Liberal leader Mark McArdle stumbled in his first hour over the same issue that infamously derailed his predecessor, Bruce Flegg.

    Mr McArdle yesterday could not say who would be premier under the remote scenario of the Coalition beating Labor and the Liberals winning more seats than the Nationals.

    “The issues in relation to the Coalition are not for today,” he said, before cutting and running from his first press conference, where he sought to convince Queenslanders he would build a credible alternative government.

    The blunder came after rival contender Tim Nicholls and his supporters capitulated after a nine-day standoff and handed Mr McArdle the leadership.

    In a compromise, Mr Nicholls has taken the deputy position, while Dr Flegg will be demoted to a lower-profile shadow portfolio. The deal avoided the mooted leadership “lucky dip” draw that threatened to tear apart the Coalition.,23739,22883360-952,00.html

  13. Fred @ 1195 – Those preference figures are from 2004, when the ALP was flirting with FF as a way of cutting out the Greens. Suspect the flow of FF preferences to Labor would be lower this time.

    Tony @ 1212 – Fielding may have voted against WorkChoices, but he backed relaxing media ownership restrictions, and made it obvious that he simply didn’t understand the most elementary things about media ownership in the process. See

  14. Steve, It’s hard to blame Mark McAddled when when he looks at his coalition partners and sees them led by Jeff Seeney. I never had much time for Larry Springborg due to his somewhat nasty style, but he at least is not a dope and can be effective in opposition (government may be a different matter). But for the sake of a credible opposition in Bananaland, it’s time for Springborg to come back, and for all 8 Libs to be disendorsed and replaced by decent candidates for the next election. They have to be able to do better than the current lot of 4 who owe Santo, and 4 who loathe Santo.

    ViggoP, amen to that!

  15. 1228 It looks like Seeney has already laid claim to the Premiership even if the Liberals get more seats. I think the only thing going for the Queensland Coalition now is the opportunity they have to be wiped out and forced back to the drawing board. It is a preposterous concept that the party with the majority of seats in a coalition would not provide the Premier.

    Asked whether the Nationals leader would be installed as premier if the coalition were to win government, Mr McArdle and Mr Nicholls walked out of their first joint media conference.

    The same question dogged the coalition throughout the election campaign in 2006, with Labor using it to attack the conservative parties’ unity.

    Opposition Leader Jeff Seeney said he had talked to both new leaders, and had their assurance the agreement – that the premier’s role would go to the Nationals – remained in place.

  16. Glen I was at the sydney town hall booth on electon day and have to report that the greens htv person was timid, raffia hatted,and lacking people skills…the libs had a tent at a prime position with no identification other than a sign saying ABSENTEE VOTES HERE .Don’t talk to me about stroppy greens as I had to stand next to that misleading tent ,eavesdrop on what electorate they had volunteered to the libs and then politely ask whether they would like info on how to vote for Kevin Rudd.Just saying his name was signif
    icant and it was nice to chat with people offer info on voting alp..only 2 really rude and negative

  17. I am disappointed the leadership was not decided by lucky dip

    Imagine if the winner was a guy who substituted his name for “Micky Mouse”

  18. Preposterous is a good word. Imagine a QLib lucky dip for Premier 😉

    However if Seeney somehoe gained the premiership he would probably ringbark it. Really as thick as a short plank and the QNats can do better I would hope. He’s definitely not the brightest spark in their campfire.

    The QLibs are another matter; their lack of depth is there for all to see. Eight seats may be a fond memory after the next election. How an opposition party can manage to be so on the nose is beyond me; surely that’s a prerogative of government?

  19. I live in Queensland and I did a snap poll to see if anyone knew who the Queensland Nationals leader was…. no one had a clue. I also can’t remember the blokes name off the top of my head.

    Now we have another Lib leader, and is about as rememberable.

    I thought Labor might have had half a challenge with Peter Beattie resigning, but I can see Anna Bligh being there for another 10 years now.

  20. What we are seeing in Q’ld , Wa and the extreme right Liberals controlling NSw
    is what the Liberals really stand for which is

  21. LaborVoter and the ironic thing is that the Qld govt have plenty of problems; from the relative trivia of various ministers with road safety responsibility racking up speeding tickets; to (SNIP: be careful not to pre-empt the courts, people – PB); and of course the weeping sore of public hospitals.

    A half-decent opposition would be rightly hammering the govt; instead it’s QLib v QLib; and QLib v QNat… what a hopeless bunch of drongos! Not that I would ever vote their way, but I really hope they can get their act together though it seems unlikely.

  22. Question

    the aec site says 91.7% counted
    Anthony Green’s site (ABC) shows 92.9% counted

    same thing happened last night where the ABC showed a higher count
    Yet when you look at seats on the ABC site BY SEAT the % counted seems the same as the aec site

    anyone had any success here ??

  23. #1236
    Ron Brown Says:
    December 7th, 2007 at 1:22 am
    “If McArdle fails as Leader , then what happens…another ballot ?”

    A drink off!!! XXXX Gold drink of choice

  24. 1239: There have been various attempts to ban bores in the past, but sadly it never seems to work.

    Wondering why my last post on QLibs is in moderation … perhaps dr0ng0s is on the suss word list?

  25. Ferny Grover don’t get too concerned about Hillsong’s errr… penetration. The Hillsong Fuehrer Bunker is within an easy half hour drive of over 700 000 souls in western and north western Sydney but even if you accept their claims of 15 000 attendance each weekend it’s not about to overwhelm us.

    I know people who attend every service of a weekend I suppose they get counted multiple times.

    But cashed up they are – partly from the previous government’s largesse but mostly from tithes.

  26. Crikey Whitey the only bit I didn’t understand was “Bloggers having an impact?”.

    I’ve been reading about the fires on KI and the man found dead, with smoke blanketing Adelaide and further afield. Hope the cool change has come through to help the fire crews.

  27. wysiwyg at 1246

    Bloggers ‘having an impact’ means that these pages, among others, are read and monitored, by the politicians, in particular.

    So the more we express our thoughts, the more they are urged to listen.

    The cool change has come through, though I am unsure, that it has helped, given the winds and no rain.

    Let us pray.

  28. Don’t you love the Doctor’s union. If the ACTU did this can you imagine the haste the Libs would whinge about it ?

    [DOCTORS have attacked the Australian Medical Association amid revelations it negotiated a deal for two associated companies to be paid a $1300 “placement fee” from public funds for every doctor they help to recruit for the federal Government’s indigenous intervention scheme.],25197,22883978-2702,00.html

  29. Cool as, Frank. A zillion schemes to be uncovered, dismantled.

    Cannot provide a link, but well remember,

    Workchoices, Unfair Dismissal.

    The unfair dismissed could approach a lawyer, funded by ‘that’ Government, to the tune of $4000.00, to be advised about their rights and chances.

    No more than that. No representation in Court.

    A straight forward easy money, for the private sector.

    Nothing for the dismissed.

  30. wysiwyg at #1246
    “I’ve been reading about the fires on KI and the man found dead, with smoke blanketing Adelaide and further afield.”

    I needed that info.
    A couple of hours ago I smelled smoke and went for a drive to see what was causing it. Had me worried.
    I live in the Murray a 100 plus kms east of Adelaide and, I’m guessing, about 200 plus north of KI.

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