What I don’t know about the Liberal Party could fill a warehouse, but most of the prescriptions outlined by Michael Kroger on Sky News on Tuesday accord with my prejudices:
The organisational wings around the country need to be reformed immediately, particularly in relation to the branch structure and preselections. There’s a lot of things that can be done, very quickly. The party is in a terrible electoral position, but it can very quickly put itself into a fantastic position. This is not a five or ten year repair job. You could actually fix all the organisational and structural problems in the Liberal Party within 12 months if you had the will to do it, and make whoever the incoming leader is in a fantastic position to fight the next federal election in three years’ time. But what tends to happens is people retreat to their corners, they want to protect their own power bases and nothing happens. It requires some strong decision-making from the senior people to fix this thing, they can fix it in 12 months … The branch structure is 60 years old and even though the branch members still do a fantastic job, it’s the structure, not the branch members, it’s the structure which is drowning us. We’ve got probably 500 people in the Victorian Liberal Party whose job is as honorary auditor … There need to be branch amalgamations, we need to base the party around state or federal electorates, you need to broaden the base of people voting in preselections, you need to have perhaps a senior committee of senior party people who have the final say over preselections to rubber stamp the selections, you’ve got to stop the petty branch stacking, we should amalgamate with the National Party, we should give the federal party some more power a little like the ALP does, we should make it a federalist party and not just individual states, we need to totally revamp the fundraising within the organisation and we need to give the federal executive some power … you just can’t have situations where five or 10 or 20 people can stack a few branches and take over a safe Liberal Party seat and preselect a C-grade candidate and be happy with that. I pay credit to the Labor Party for some of the candidates they preselected, I don’t like their politics, but the fact is in various places they strong-armed some tired old members out, put some new people in who may or may not succeed but on the face of it some of them have got very good credentials for parliament. That’s the way you have to operate in politics. To leave these things to the branch-stackers is a recipe for disaster.
Malcolm Turnbull – wealthy, assertive, independently powerful – struck me as being just the man for the job outlined by Kroger. Perhaps the party room knows better. Or perhaps, to use Kroger’s formulation, they have signalled an intention to retreat to their corners and protect their own power bases, and nothing will happen.
Recommended reading: Alister Drysdale of the Business Spectator reports that both parties’ internal polling showed a late Coalition recovery that was stopped dead in its tracks by the Lindsay pamphlet disgrace. It’s also argued that the fake Jeff Kennett letter regarding proposed funding cuts to the states had the same impact during the last week of the 1996 campaign. I personally do not imagine that either incident was single-handedly decisive, but this is not the first report to emerge of a sharp shift in party tracking polling following Jackie Kelly’s infamous “Chaser-style prank” interview of last Wednesday. There’s also a very intriguing article on the Liberal Party’s late-term leadership ructions from Pamela Williams in today’s Financial Review (subscriber only unfortunately).
George Newhouse: shares the award with Nicole Cornes for Worst ALP Candidate In A Marginal Seat
Progressive @ 850
Libs’ lead is still unchanged at 111 votes, according to the AEC. Not sure how far they are through counting the remaining votes though!
yeah…newhouse wasnt to crash hot was he. I remember seeing him & Hawke having a walk to meet the people. Poor old George didnt have clue…seemed like he did even want to shake hands with people. The look Bob give him when he let an old woman walk by without greeting her.
On the other hand, Nicole was just too green and well over her head. She needs some political work experience first.
Newhouse’s ex girlfriend would have made a better Labor candidate.
Only 78% of the vote counted in Wentworth – the rest to come is absentees/overseas votes? You might find Turnball’s 2PP vote goes back to 52%.
I did calculate uncounted absentees, informals,provisionals ,prepost ,postals,normal
RESULT:
Flynn ALP + 804
Solomon ALP – 79
Robertson ALP +114
Swan ALP -316
Bowman ALP + 29
Herbert ALP -268
Dickson ALP -149
McEwen ALP -239
La Trobe ALP -452
Expect
Labor wins Flynn
LCP wins La Trobe
LCP probably wins Herbert , McEwen & Swan
EITHER could win Solomon , Robertson, Bowman & Dickson
[George Newhouse: shares the award with Nicole Cornes for Worst ALP Candidate In A Marginal Seat]
I had already given the Nicole Cornes award to Bob Day in Makin for his performance of “He’s Got the Whole World” to a class of students at a Christian School.
http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/sa/content/2006/s2094755.htm
Registered postal voter.
The Liberal party became what it is because the liberals ignored politics and went off and did their own thing.
If you care now might be the time to join the party. Don’t leave it to others.
.
Power corrupts, that is just the way it is, in several years time Australia will need a viable alternative government.
It isn’t going to happen with the present bunch.
Bob Day, who has conclusively proved that you can’t buck the swing in a suburban seat no matter how much you spend. A useful lesson.
ShowsOn, I agree – I saw that Bob Day school visit on Lateline a few weeks ago. A truly scary thing.
The students looked thoroughly bored during his performance, but then when questioned, seemed to worship him.
I’m not sure which was more scary – Bob Day or the next generations of Young Liberals coming through that school!
I’m advised by a well-informed sauce (cranberry I think) that there are 7,000 absents, 5,000 prepolls and maybe 2,000 postals still to come in McEwen. Prepolls and postals have generally favoured the Libs in most seats, while absents vote much the same way as ordinary booth voters. Labor won the overall booth vote in McEwen, but not by much. So Labor will have to do very well with the absents to overcome Bailey’s advantage in the prepolls and postals. My sauce says it’s still possible, but not likely, that Labor can get up.
[Bob Day, who has conclusively proved that you can’t buck the swing in a suburban seat no matter how much you spend. A useful lesson.]
Yes, on election day he paid for BBQs at every single polling booth in Makin.
It seems that a lot of people enjoying the sausages didn’t vote for him.
[I’m not sure which was more scary – Bob Day or the next generations of Young Liberals coming through that school!]
At least those kids looked over the age of 15. The best thing about the election being over is I no longer have to see 12 year olds at local shopping centres wearing Bob Day T-shirts.
Ron i wouldnt be too quick to throw away McEwen…
Any reason the ALP front YR@W needs to keep going under a Rudd government? Seems very strange.
I thought it was your view that the Rudd government will betray the workers at the first opportunity, Bill. Surely YR@W needs to continue to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Adam, does your tasty sauce have anything to say about Flynn? It’s looking close but good to me, but I don’t know any party people connected there.
Those of you who are anticipating that provisional votes may have a significant impact on the election results in the closest seats should have a careful read of paragraph 12(b)(iii) of Schedule 3 to the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/sch3.html)
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Adam Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 6:31 pm
I thought it was your view that the Rudd government will betray the workers at the first opportunity, Bill. Surely YR@W needs to continue to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Yes thats right Adam but i thought that with God being elected all will be well. My kids cant wait to get their computers and extra cheap broadband. I wonder if we will still get the lump sum payment per child we got under Howard and we are going to miss out on rebate on school fees Howard promised. So the computers better be totally free and be able to take home
Adam 822 – the 04 election was a week after school/uni holidays, at least in Qld. Maybe that could explain higher pre-polling last time?
868
bill weller – considering Wayne Swan has said those payments aren’t real i don’t like your chances.
Bill – rebates for school fees was the worst piece of bribery masquerading as public policy I’ve ever seen. It would have distorted the already serious problem in educational opportunity. Thank god it’s gone the way of Medicare Gold.
Before the election, as part of its tracking of ordinary voters, the ABC had a nice interview with some farming types, with kids at private school, condemning it.
Glen you are joking? So the working class elects a ALP government and then ends up worse of? Those payments pay for School stuff. This is typical of the new DLP/SDA new leadership. Rudd was in poverty when he was young, does he want the rest of us to have the same. Gee i cant wait to tell all the people that look forward to those payments that they will be gone. Oh yeh and the computers are only 50% covered so many wont be able to afford them either.
Another Matt Price story from the archives:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19491811-12854,00.html
“Do or die for Labor’s union connections”, June 17, 2006.
Matt states towards the end of the article: “a Coalition loss could instantly reduce the Liberals to an impotent rump.”
He got that right.
Graeme Says:rebates for school fees was the worst piece of bribery masquerading as public policy.
Ok Graeme so what will the disadvantaged get to alleviate their burdens?
Dont you think the computer rebate isn’t a bribe? Bribe for people who can afford half the cost
So Bill, you wanted Howard to win?
wyzsiwig, sorry, my source was a Victorian one. But I think we will win Flynn and lose Herbert. Bowman is genuinely too close to call.
I see Bill has founded a new party, Marxists for Middle-Class Handouts.
Adam #861
Absent Provisional Pre-Poll Postal Total
Envelopes Issued 9,525 1,091 7,920 8,338 26,874
Envelopes Received 2,451 1,091 2,564 5,915 12,021
Rejected at Preliminary Sc2 0 4 11 0
Ballot Papers Counted 2,227 0 5,421 7,158
aec says different figures to your source
but how does they aec count MORE pre polls & postals than they received !!
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Gary Bruce Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 7:14 pm
So Bill, you wanted Howard to win?
No i want the poor and poverty stricken the single parents the pensioners to be better of under Rudd. But i think we will be worse off.
And your reasoning is? You seem to be putting Rudd down before he has even been sworn in. What hppened to the ‘give the bloke ago first before condemning him’ idea’, ie a fair go?
Adam what would be Rishworths beliefs on Gay rights and gay activism ? She thinks that abortion should be decided by the voters and not women themselves and Student Unionism should not be compulsory. So gays should be……. I love it when religion gets into politics it even has people like Adam who should know better standing up for religious bigots
Any ALP Members here got any thoughts on modernising membership criteria?
I’ve been an ALP supporter for quite a while, assisting in elections, supporting candidates etc but have always baulked at becoming an ALP member due to the requirement that you must be a union member.
For some professions such as mine (CPA), professional membership is already an expensive exercise, & the expense of union membership is difficult to justify given that the benefits of union membership, especially in a small professional practice seem to be negligble, if not non-existent.
I’m not sure how stringent the ALP are on the union issue, but it would seem to be in their own interests to expand their membership base?
Gary Bruce Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 7:18 pm
And your reasoning is? You seem to be putting Rudd down before he has even been sworn in. What hppened to the ‘give the bloke ago first before condemning him’ idea’, ie a fair go?
If he is going to change payments then he is not for the little person
Bill when your team gets another 4 million votes we may take you seriously. 😛
Average Green vote per seat – 5620. Pathetic. 🙂
Average informal vote 2982. At least the Greens beat someone.
Bill, Amanda Rishworth, like all other members of Caucus, will be bound by party policy. Kevin Rudd said on 8 November: “RUDD: We have said that we will remove all the discriminations concerning same sex couples when it comes to inheritance laws, social security law and other categories, I don’t have the list of 58 in front of me but can I say it’s a very extensive list that we have committed to.” Abortion is a matter of conscience for both parties and while I disagree with the Catholic view I respect it and Rishworth has every right to her views. Abortion law is in any case a state matter.
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ruawake Says:
December 1st, 2007 at 7:25 pm
Bill when your team gets another 4 million votes we may take you seriously. 😛
Average Green vote per seat – 5620. Pathetic. 🙂
Average informal vote 2982. At least the Greens beat someone.
ruawake, Age of major parties ?
Age of the Greens ?
Bill the Greens will end up like the Democrats, irrelevant.
For goodness sake, Bill Weller, Rudd used a night off in Melbourne, without any media in attendance, to go and find out for himself, what was happening in homeless shelters and require feedback from members (I think) of the government (that sounds so good) to further inform policy development. Does this sound like someone who is not going to pay attention to fact finding and developing policy to better address the needs of the people I work with day in and out? I know the particular organisation he contacted and went to meet. They wouldn’t be telling him any nonsense, and why would he be there unless he wanted to know, particularly without any tip off to the media. Did it off his own bat. I may yet be proved wrong, but he seems genuine to me.
Any chance of a cut and paste of yesterdays AFR article on Howard clinging to the leadership? Ddn’t get the paper, and it sounds like a good, satisfying read!
Re 886,
ruawake Says:
I wasn’t in Australia when the Democrats were at the peak of their power, but didn’t they have a very good leader then? When he left, the others who took over gradually were less and less able to do the job properly. I suspect that ruawake is right about the Greens insofar as when Bob Brown isn’t the leader any more, it will be a challenge for the next person who wears those shoes if they don’t want to follow the precedent set by the Democrats.
Triffid, You’ve got an interesting point, as many of my associates (health) have to fork up fees left, right and centre (so to speak!) for our various professional organisations, and on top of that for union membership. If anyone in the ALP who can do anything about it is listening, it would probably be worthwhile doing a re-think on membership. For example, a colleague of mine who is a consultant psychiatrist is a Labor supporter, but is up for close on $13.000 in professional indemnity insurance alone. Sort of goes whitish when he gets the annual bill, which I tease him about, given he’s Indian. He teases me back about how dark a whitey can go when I get my various professional bills.
[Any ALP Members here got any thoughts on modernising membership criteria?
I’ve been an ALP supporter for quite a while, assisting in elections, supporting candidates etc but have always baulked at becoming an ALP member due to the requirement that you must be a union member.]
I am a member of the Swan Hills (WA) Branch and am not a union member- which means that in WA, union membership preclude you from joining as a rank and file member.
Trifid @881. I am a member of the ALP in Hinkler, I am self employed and not a member of any unions and have not been a member for 20 years. One does not have to be a member of an union.I participated in all elections at our branch.
Triffid #881
I am a Western Australian Labor Party member and am not a member of a union. It is my understanding that to be a party member you do not have to be a member of a union and remember not all unions are affiliated with the Labor Party. If you are a member of an affiliated union you get a discount. It may be different in other states.
You may be thinking of the requirement for Labor candidates to be members of affiliated unions.
McEwen Update: Fran Bailey’s lead back up to 150
I’ll predict Labor picks up Flynn, Solomon, Robertson and Bowman.
Liberals retain Herbert and McEwen, and gain Swan
Labor 84 seats
I have been an ALP member in the ACT and Qld. I have never been a member of a union.
Wasnt it the unions wot won it? Why would all of you loyalists be wanting to dump the union connection now?
Not dumping ESJ just refuting Liberal Party garbage. 😛
Looking at the SA membership form, it definitely mentions that you must be a union member if eligible.
Perhaps the states each have different rules?
I am a member of a union, I think it is the least I can do to support myself and my fellow workers. Non unionists are a bunch of parasites happy to take every condition won over the years by unions and by extension their members. And by the way the ALP is still the political arm of the unions regardless of what latter day “modernists” think, and a good thing too. I for one am proud of that continuing link.
Labor rules vary from state to state. NSW requires union membership and it seems SA does too. I doubt the rule is enforced. In Victoria there is certainly no such rule. An employer can join the ALP provided they undertake to abide by all industrial laws and awards. I know several very large employers who are ALP members.