Federal election live


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LIVE ELECTION BLOGGING. Entries should be added at every minute or two. You will need to hit “refresh” to see new entries.

12.10am. ABC computer had Swan as Liberal gain earlier tonight, but it’s tightened.

11.54pm. Forgot about Paterson: turned out a narrow Liberal win.

11.46pm. Macarthur’s 58-year reign as a bellwether is now over. It is now officially Eden-Monaro.

11.37pm. 5.2 per cent in Victoria could have yielded Labor nothing, so they should be pleased with Deakin and Corangamite.

11.36pm. ACT: with no Senate boilover, a boring result.

11.36pm. Swing to Liberal in Franklin a measure of Harry Quick’s popularity. I figured the Libs were in trouble when Nick Minchin started tooking it up.

11.35pm. Bass closer than expected, but Labor. Contrary to expectations, Braddon was an easier win for Labor.

11.34pm. Okay, live blogging of ABC call of the board.

11.29pm. I exaggerated about the Coalition blocking majority. The clear loss of SA and Tasmanian Senate seats will leave them one short. But if they take the final seat from the Greens in Victoria, they’ll be able to do it if they can woo Steve Fielding or Nick Xenophon, and will have an absolute majority in both. A long-winded way of saying the Greens most likely will not have the balance of power.

11.28pm. Not much doubt about 3 LIB, 2 ALP and 1 GRN in Western Australia.

11.27pm. Straightforward Tasmanian Senate result: 3 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN.

11.24pm. Greens firming in SA Senate. Looks like 2 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 XEN and 1 GRN.

11.21pm. Greens falling behind in Victorian Senate. Looking more like Labor 3, Coalition 3. That leaves the Coalition with a blocking majority.

11.18pm. No surprises lurking in the NSW Senate count. A clear 3-3 for the majors, with Kerry Nettle losing her seat.

10.56pm. Straightforward contest between Labor and Greens for last Queensland seat, with Labor ahead. Most likely LNP 3, ALP 3; but possible LNP 3, ALP 2, GRN 1.

10.55pm. Pauline Hanson gets enough votes for public funding.

10.50pm. Libs home in Cowan.

10.47pm. Howard pretty much concedes Bennelong. And here I was buying Nick Minchin’s line about postal votes.

10.40pm. Still early Senate figures from Queensland point to a very tight race for the last seat between Labor and the Greens, with the Coalition clear on three. It is worth dwelling on the significance of the Coalition’s performance in the Senate: they will very likely win more seats than Labor, and will have a blocking majority when combined with Family First. There’s a good chance we’ll get a double dissolution during the coming term, if Labor has reason to feel bold.

10.26pm. Taking a step back, I believe we have a strong Senate result for the Coalition, who will only drop seats in South Australia and Tasmania.

10.23pm. Liberal ACT Senate vote fading a little, but not quite enough to trouble them.

10.21pm. Labor pulling further ahead in Hasluck, not going to win Stirling, probably gone in Swan, not quite dead yet in Cowan.

10.19pm. Lineball in Bowman. The Liberals might lose Mal Brough, and keep Andrew Laming. Great.

10.12pm. Big Liberal win in Swan, actually – over half counted, 0.1 per cent margin, 2.1 per cent swing.

10.12pm. ABC calls Swan for the Liberals.

10.10pm. ABC not yet calling Stirling for Liberal, but they probably should be: with over 50 per cent counted, the Liberals lead by 1.2 per cent. Slow count in Hasluck, but still lineball.

10.01pm. Another big loser from the evening: the tally room. Don’t think we’ll be seeing it again.

9.59pm. Greens Senate position in SA improving. They’re struggling to stay ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion. If they stay there they’ll get up on Labor prefs. Otherwise it will be ALP 3, LIB 2, XEN 1

9.55pm. Labor with a narrow lead in Solomon after half the vote counted.

9.54pm. Big Labor win in Flynn also: 10.7 per cent swing, 3.0 per cent margin.

9.53pm. Double-digit swings: Barker, Blair, Calwell, Dawson, Flynn, Forde, Groom, Holt, Leichhardt, Longman, Macarthur (yet not quite enough) and Petrie. Mal Brough conceding in Longman.

9.49pm. Raw AEC figures from Hasluck have Labor 1.25 per cent ahead from 31.6 per cent, ABC has it lineball from 12.6 per cent.

9.45pm. Labor behind in Swan and likely to lose Cowan, but likely to win Hasluck. Liberals looking good in Stirling.

9.43pm. Not much doubt about 3 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN in Tasmania.

9.41pm. Three seats for Coalition in Victoria, two for Labor, close fight for final seat between Labor and Greens with Greens in front.

9.40pm. Not looking good for Kerry Nettle. Likely NSW Senate result 3 ALP, 3 LNP.

9.38pm. Senate result currently pointing to 2 LIB, 2 ALP and Xenophon, with a very close battle between the Liberals and Greens for the last seat.

9.33pm. Twenty-three Labor gains now from ABC, but the Liberals have probably gained Cowan and are ahead in Swan.

9.32pm. ABC computer now calls Flynn for Labor.

9.30pm. Liberals keeping their noses in front in Sturt.

9.29pm. Stirling count into the teens, Liberal ahead but it’s not over yet. Lineball in Hasluck and Swan. Liberals look likely to gain Cowan.

9.26pm. Scratch that on ACT Senate, I’m now told otherwise. Liberal member Gary Humphries to hold.

9.24pm. Close race for ACT Senate.

9.21pm. Labor ahead in Bowman now.

9.18pm. ABC calls Petrie for Labor, meaning big money for me from PortlandBet.

9.17pm. Smith not sounding at all confident about any of the four Perth marginals.

9.16pm. Not looking good for Labor in Stirling, too early to say in Hasluck. Stirling would have more new development/urban infill than Hasluck.

9.14pm. Quite well ahead, actually.

9.13pm. But Labor now ahead in Petrie.

9.12pm. ABC downgrades Dickson to ALP ahead.

9.10pm. I’m told that early indications for the Senate suggest 3 ALP, 3 LNP in NSW, so Kerry Nettle in trouble, and 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN in Victoria.

9.09pm. WA no quicker at counting votes than Queensland. Perhaps it’s the heat.

9.06pm. Big result – ABC calls Forde for Labor. Very little of the vote counted though, as far as teh ABC website is concerned.

9.04pm. Labor probably enough ahead in Bennelong that they’re the favourite. Very tight in Petrie.

9.02pm. CLP 0.8 per cent ahead in Solomon with 15.1 per cent counted.

9.01pm. ABC calls for Dickson for Labor, too early I’d suggest: 0.2 per cent ahead, 14.5 per cent counted.

8.56pm. Very impressive Labor win in Leichhardt.

8.55pm. Very first results coming in from WA.

8.53pm. The ABC is explicitly calling 20 seats for Labor, but might be wrong about Bennelong and perhaps one other. The Coalition can still desperately hope for a scenario where everything else goes right and they can win Solomon, Cowan and Swan.

8.52pm. Labor now back ahead in back-and-forth battle for Flynn.

8.50pm. Narrow early CLP lead in Solomon. Labor out of trouble now in Lingiari.

8.50pm. Early, but looking very close in Forde.

8.46pm. ABC’s calls for Labor in Queensland: Blair, Bonner, Dawson, Leichhardt, Longman, Moreton. No significant figures from Herbert. Kerry O’Brien saying Dickson “in trouble”. Interesting early swing to CLP in Lingiari.

8.42pm. ABC calls Blair and Leichhardt for Labor and gives them back Bennelong.

8.40pm. Nationals have pulled ahead in Flynn.

8.34pm. Line-ball in Sturt, but the Liberals should get up in Boothby.

8.32pm. Labor 1.0 per cent ahead in Blair with 14.3 per cent. Still slow count in Queensland.

8.31pm. Ryan not living up to the hype on early figures.

8.30pm. Still lineball in Robertson.

8.29pm. Labor pulls slightly further ahead in Bennelong, but it will be very tight.

8.28pm. Julia Gillard calls it. ABC computer ticks over to 76 for Labor at that very moment.

8.26pm. Count finally building up in Bonner and Moreton, Labor swings of 7.2 per cent and 4.1 per cent.

8.26pm. Nationals looking good in Hinkler – not a huge surprise.

8.24pm. Big swing to Labor in Capricornia – unnecessary for them, but enforces the picture in Flynn and Dawson. Still nothing credible from Leichhardt.

8.23pm. Many crucial seats in Queensland counting agonisingly slowly.

8.19pm. ABC computer calls Bass for Labor.

8.18pm. Labor also hold narrow early lead in Flynn.

8.18pm. Very big early Labor swing in Longman.

8.14pm. Haven’t mentioned Sturt yet: lineball with a third of the vote counted.

8.13pm. ABC computer calls Wentworth for Turnbull.

8.13pm. Kingston now a Labor gain on ABC.

8.10pm. Early 4.0 per cent swing gives Labor a slight early lead in Moreton.

8.09pm. Very early 10.1 per cent swing to Labor in Leichhardt, 0.2 per cent short of the required swing.

8.07pm. Bob Hawke has called the election for Labor, just as he memorably did in 1993.

8.06pm. Big gain for Labor, according to the ABC: Dawson.

8.05pm. ABC has Macarthur as Liberal retain.

8.03pm. Bonner called for Labor, as expected.

8.02pm. Maddeningly slow count in most important Queensland seats.

8.01pm. Bennelong lead continues to narrow. Now line-ball.

8.01pm. Nick Minchin makes well-made but probably exaggerated point about postal votes in Bennelong.

7.59pm. Big early swing to Labor in Blair.

7.57pm. Finally, intelligence from Queensland. Dawson looking very interesting.

7.57pm. Only a slight early swing to Labor in Kingston, but enough for them to win if they maintain it.

7.56pm. Labor lead narrowing Bennelong.

7.55pm. Line-ball in Robertson. Labor back ahead in Bass.

7.50pm. Very slow count so far in Queensland.

7.49pm. Most of the booth vote counted in Bass, and it won’t be decided tonight.

7.45pm. Dobell down for Labor from ABC.

7.42pm. Not looking good for Labor in Boothby.

7.38pm. Sounds like the entire Poll Bludger readership is at the tally room. ABC computer still says “in doubt” in Bennelong, but surely Howard is gone.

7.40pm. Liberals back ahead in Bass.

7.38pm. Nine seats called for Labor by ABC computer so far.

7.37pm. ABC computer calls Eden-Monaro for Labor.

7.36pm. NEWS FLASH: ABC computer calls Bennelong for Labor.

7.35pm. Labor catching up but still behind in Cowper.

7.33pm. Labor now ahead in Bass.

7.32pm. Liberals doing very well in La Trobe and McMillan – areas which also went against Labor at the state election.

7.30pm. No big surprise here, but ABC computer gives Lindsay and Parramatta to Labor.

7.30pm. Couple of outer Sydney seats Liberals were getting excited about aren’t coming in: Hughes and Greenway, anyhow.

7.29pm. Deakin back to Labor gain.

7.28pm. More figures in from Bennelong and Labor lead still holding.

7.28pm. Early results in Sturt suggest it’s tight. Ditto Boothby, but they’re slightly behind.

7.27pm. Still only 6.3 per cent, Labor looking very good in Bennelong.

7.26pm. Very first figures from Queensland coming in.

7.25pm. Labor ahead in Eden-Monaro, but only just.

7.24pm. ALP computer has demoted Deakin from ALP gain to ALP ahead.

7.24pm. Labor now ahead in Robertson.

7.23pm. Have I said ABC computer calls Page for Labor?

7.22pm. Labor slowly catching up in Bass.

7.20pm. Big Labor swings being wasted in seats they already hold.

7.19pm. Early big swing in Lyne has moderated below 5 per cent.

7.18pm. Malcolm Turnbull looking good on the early Wentworth count.

7.17pm. Labor also falling just short in Robertson and Paterson. Let’s just say it will be interesting to see results from Queensland.

7.17pm. Liberals holding on in McMillan.

7.16pm. Swing in Macarthur also falling short at this stage.

7.16pm. No Labor coup in Hughes, by the look of it.

7.15pm. Nationals just slightly ahead in Cowper, but nothing in it. Lower than expected swing to Labor in Dobell.

7.14pm. ABC calls Braddon as Labor gain.

7.09pm. ABC computer calls Deakin for Labor.

7.09pm. ABC computer calls Page for Labor, Gippsland for Nationals.

7.07pm. Liberals pull further ahead in Bass. 10.5 per cent counted. Still close.

7.07pm. Labor swing perhaps picking up a little in Melbourne suburbs.

7.06pm. Corangamite a Labor gain, according to ABC computer.

7.04pm. Paterson count now in double digits, and Labor will need to do a bit better here.

7.04pm. Said McMillan then and meant McEwen. Corrected. Actually a small Liberal swing in McMillan.

7.02pm. Labor just ahead in Corangamite and McEwen, with almost significant number counted. Not looking like it will all be over before Queensland though.

7.01pm. Swing in Bennelong moderating – below 5 per cent now.

7.00pm. Still no sign of a big swing to Labor in Tasmania; they are slightly ahead in Braddon and slightly behind in Bass.

6.59pm. Double digit swing in Page holding up with 5.1 per cent counted.

6.57pm. Early 12.4 per cent swing to Labor in Macarthur.

6.57pm. Swings everywhere in New South Wales, but Tasmania looking a bit sticky.

6.56pm. Bass count starting to build up to almost interesting level of 6 per cent, and Labor swing surprisingly mild. Probably not from Launceston though.

6.55pm. Corangamite swing to Labor sticking at 6-7 per cent, 3.9 per cent counted.

6.48pm. Big early swing in Gilmore, as you all saw. I had a vague feeling about this one. But yeah, still too early to say.

6.46pm. The very early swing in Flinders caught my eye, but the next booth dampened it down. Still too few to mean anything though.

6.46pm. Tally room over-reaction to 0.2 per cent of the booth in Bennelong.

6.45pm. 15 per cent Labor swing in Page from 1.2 per cent counted.

6.45pm. Dean Jaensch observes 90 per cent of booths swings so far are to Labor.

6.44pm. All very small figures, but all seats with results from Victoria show very mild swings to Labor.

6.40pm. Also a big swing to Labor in Lyne – not enough to win, but significant to the Central Coast and North Coast generally. Throw Page and Cowper on that to-watch list.

6.37pm. Antony reckons he spots an 8 per cent swing on the Central Coast. We’ll be hearing a lot more about Dobell, Robertson and Paterson.

6.36pm. Less than 1 per cent counted in McMillan, only 1 per cent swing to Labor.

6.35pm. Overall swing to Labor of 1.2 per cent to Labor in Tasmania, but these are all small rural booths.

6.35pm. Five booths in from Braddon, only 1 per cent, but 4 per cent swing to Labor. These are the rural parts of the electorate.

6.33pm. Early 8.3 per cent swing to Labor in Robertson.

6.32pm. Antony Green says a 5.9 per cent swing to Labor in Eden-Monaro, regardless of what current figures say.

6.31pm. 6.6 per cent swing to Labor in Braddon from 488 votes.

6.20pm. First figures from rural New South Wales dribbling in. Slowly getting act together. Stay tuned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

985 comments on “Federal election live”

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  1. Thank you William Bowe for the opportunity to participate (if only passively) in your exceptional site.
    Regards, also, to those psephologists who 1) believe in evidence based psephology and 2) use sensible models and 3) got it pretty right and 4) kept out faith in rationality alive:
    – Adam Carr
    – Simon Jackman
    – William Bowe
    – Malcolm Mackerras
    – Bryan Palmer
    – Possum Commitatus
    – Peter Brent
    Congratulations to all the others who also got it right.

  2. Possum – well, pass on my thanks to your better half – it was a great touch.

    Anyone know that damn URL for the postal votes?

    And did anyone notice that Rudd only mentioned working families once in his victory speech, but rabbitted on about the nation about a zillion times?

  3. Turnbull ran ads in the newspapers saying Newhouse was inelligble to stand. That is likely to have cost him some votes. I would imagine that action was illegal and may give grounds for Newhouse to ask the AEC to investigate. He would be entitled to a by-election.

  4. Yeah Arbie Jay I know, but Labor isnt ahead. I dont trust the Greens. They do preference deals that we deliver on, but are they manning all the booths all the time? I reckon Labor are getting shafted. We should have done far better off Green preferences in Latrobe.

  5. Kina,

    Labor is not going to force the people of Wentworth into a By Election. They would probably just punish Labor for it anyway.

  6. Glen

    I thank you for your input, as others have said you have been great, A conversation about politics cannot continue if it is all in agreement.

    I like most others here dont agree with your comments but they are generally thoughtful and persistent.

    I have enjoyed reading what you have written,

  7. hey dont forget me!

    I predicted 53.5 2pp, 83 seats and Paterson was my last over the line and bob the bastard won it with a few hundred votes by spending 1.5 million πŸ™‚ moral victory yes!

  8. Oh Yeah Happy Cow

    And a lot of kudos to William and Possum, who remained unbiased throughout, yet provided their sites for the exchange of ideas and opinions.

  9. It would be worth Labor’s while to get rid of Turnbull..and I believe Newhouse wouldn’t have to be the candidate. Tactically it may be useful for Labor if they can find a notable candidate.

  10. Kina no chance Labor will challenge! Politically it would be a disaster and the voters would only vote Turnbull back in with an even bigger majority.

  11. Adz, that scares me. I just hope they can have a conscience vote in the senate over gay law reform and Im fairly sure if they did there would be a majority

  12. 840
    scaper… Says:
    A goat???

    It’s whale season….

    Nah, rodent season.

    868
    happy cow Says:
    I predicted 53.5 2pp, 83 seats…

    Me too. I am very happy to be wrong. πŸ˜‰

  13. I predicted the biggest swings would be in Macarthur and Ryan iirc, I was obviously wrong about Ryan but I was sop on with Macarthur. I was telling people to bet on the ALP taking it. Lucky nobody listened to me because it looks like the Libs just held on.

  14. gary if that is the case then there is no harm done. its the principle that counts. we dont want high flying lawyers to get away with breaking the law in the future.

  15. You wouldn’t bother unless you knew you had some sort of chance. But that is assuming the AEC would think it illegal.

    Where is LTEP by the way?

  16. No I dont want Turnbull to get away with it either, but the fact is that challenged results normally result in the candidate being challenged winning by an even bigger margin in the re-run.

  17. Gary

    I don’t know how the preferences are being done on the ABC computers, whether it is actual or an allocation.

    I thought that the greens had agreed to go with labor, but when it comes down to it it depends on whether people follow the how to vote card or decide themselves.

    Family First went with the liberals, but I don’t know whether tis automatically means that all their preferences go to the libs.

  18. Paul K #832: I’m after the results for each of the polling stations within my electorate. Do you know how long it takes the AEC to put them up on their site?

    I’m in the electorate of Flynn. I was pleasantly surprised to hear of Labor candidate Chris Trevor’s success up here. Now I’m curious to learn how Mr Trevor performed in places like Gayndah, Biloela, Barcaldine etc. πŸ™‚

  19. 867 Adz – That’s a good question.

    If the Rudd government were to introduce civil union legislation, and allow MPs to vote on confidence, its possible that there are Liberal senators who would cross the floor.

    There’s plenty of stuff for Rudd to get on with before coming to the issue of gay rights, though – and stuff that’s on politically safer ground. Labor don’t want to start off a term in government by scaring the social conversatives.

  20. yes of course hugorune he has more major issues to work through anyhow but Ijust would love to know how he is eventually going to get it past family first without having to get some liberals to cross the floor.

  21. Gary and happy cow, I can’t think of something that would be a better start for Labor losing the next election than to challenge Wentworth.

  22. Arbie Jay. Its hard to fathom many Greens supporters giving a second preference to a Tory, so I thought maybe the Green’s coverage of the booths may not have been too flash. You know maybe they werent handing HTV cards out to begin with in some booths.

Comments are closed.

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