D-day minus 11

• Big round of applause to whoever it is who runs this website, which looks like it will be the place to go for booth-level results on Saturday night. Included are maps of polling booth locations for every single seat.

• A “senior ALP source” tells the Northern Territory News that party polling has their candidate Damian Hale “just ahead” of CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon. The source further notes that such polls do not factor in the Defence vote at Robertson Barracks, suggesting the race is actually “neck and neck”.

• Independent candidate Danielle Ecuyer continues to capture more than her share of the media coverage from Wentworth. Yesterday she went public with an email from Caroline Overington of The Australian who told her, in what Peter Garrett might describe as a jocular moment, that she should direct preferences away from ex-boyfriend George Newhouse and towards Malcolm Turnbull, as it would be “such a good front page story”. In other Wentworth news, indignant gay rights campaigner Gary Burns has been dumped as a Labor volunteer after physically intimidating Lucy Turnbull and telling her husband he had a “middle-aged well-dressed ‘fag hag’ impersonator of a wife”. According to the Daily Telegraph, Burns reckons George Newhouse does “not know how to run a campaign”.

• The Greens will direct preferences to Labor over the Coalition in every Queensland seat except Wide Bay, where an open card will be issued as a gesture of protest over the Traveston Dam and council amalgamations.

• Hat tip to Sacha Blumen for drawing my attention to the fact that a state redistribution process is under way in Queensland. The deadline for submissions of “suggestions” passed yesterday, so publication of proposed boundaries is presumably still a few months away. A redistribution of Tasmanian Legislative Council boundaries is at a similarly early stage.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

486 comments on “D-day minus 11”

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  1. [4 corners is on again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Who said dumbing down the electorate doesn’t work???]

    Yep, the Tuesday Repeat, which used to be on at 1pm on a Tuesday Arvo, but was probably moved to 11.35pm cos of language issues in some of the stories, which made it difficult to replay during the day.

    Plus there is also the repeat tomorrow night (Wednesday) at approx 8.30/9.30pm on ABC2 as well

  2. Has all the signs of organised a deliberate push by some to get Turnbull re-elected.

    How will Overington’s slip play out for her? She says it was joking but the other lady certainly didn’t sound as though she was having jokes with CO. I gather this sort of thing is quite serious especially being part of a major National newspaper.

    I gather toying with democracy is one of the things that should not be treated lightly [ignoring the Howard govt’s last 11 years].

  3. Don’t need to question the media the entire group think collective, including what was once our ABC, are really just desperately trying to cheer lead for Howard, it is sickening clearly they have no self pride.

  4. I can barely do the slightest sum, but I can pose a question.

    If someone would like to figure this out.

    If one has a mortage of say, $300,000 over 25 yrs, what is the cost, in terms of an interest rate rise of .25%. Or more increases, beyond.

    Over that period, which is clearly of a shorter term in terms of child use by date, what exactly is the gain for individuals of the Howard education input/tax deduction? Versus mortage rate increases?

    For, let’s say, a two child family, one junior, one senior, being afforded an amount of $1000 pa?

    I realise that it all depends, but. ??

  5. “406
    Chris in LDN Says:
    November 14th, 2007 at 12:21 am
    Cmon, Sydney’s hardly international, honestly, is it?”

    Brilliant! And I thought I’d stirred up a hornet’s nest!

  6. VBotW – I did think afterward, I should have added , ‘I love it, and it’s beautiful, but…….’ 🙂

    As you’d know, the world’s meedya ignores Australia and even Sydney (gasp) when it comes to just about everything.

  7. Much of the media ditched pride for partisan politics.

    Having the Howard govt for so many years has helped conform the thinking of many a journalist to that of Howard. Many are simply incapable of objective journalism because they accept Liberal Howard thinking as the norm of society.

    Most have supported at one time or other racism, xenophobia, intolerance, lies, deceit, dishonest government, trashing of justice and democracy, brutality, corruption, false wars and, who knows about the 300+ plus deaths of the SIEV-X? – and they have felt chuffed because the Howard government has praised them the more for their loss of ethics. There are some journalists we know who get big thrills in supporting outrageous govt acts because they get a nice pat on the back and closer access to the powers.

    Another 3 years of Howard and it will become impossible to tell the difference between some newspapers and the Liberal party policy and marketing machine . Howard’s triumph over democracy will be complete and those journalist will no doubt feel proud that they have betrayed Australians.

    no names of course.

  8. A “senior ALP source” tells the Northern Territory News that party polling has their candidate Damian Hale “just ahead” of CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon. The source further notes that such polls do not factor in the Defence vote at Robertson Barracks, suggesting the race is actually “neck and neck”.

    Pure bullshit to try and prevent the sympathy vote.

  9. Not a major contributor but I have to wave the flag for Istanbul as one of the most fascinating cities in the world from the 50-60 I’ve had the pleasure of experiencing.

    Born and livid in Melbourne and it really is like a slow-mo experience after being away!

  10. Thanks to these helpful gaffes the Tories have a chance to make this election a squeaker lol. Oh Kelly how your star has fallen, more evidence the ALP plans to roll back its announced policies if it wins. Howie did well on education, he offered choice, defended choice and supported choice, a liberal philosophy down to the core something the great Ming would have been proud of.

    Kina you need to read The Australian more often, you’ll find they trash Howie as much as they praise him. Look at tomorrows or should i say today’s edition http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22754161-7583,00.html ‘So much for being an economic conservative’ by none other than Janet Albrechtsen. If anything the media have backed Rudd this election and throughout all of his leadership, any other leader would have been forced to resign for all his gaffes, mistakes and errors of judgment but not KR, not when you have the media pulling for you.

    I just hope Australian’s don’t wake up on the 25th regretting that they’ve just been sold a ‘pig in a poke’ by Rudd with his little experience and little talent on his front bench.

    It’s nice to know they brought up the red menace on tuesday, hey it worked for us in the 50s and 60s back in the golden era lol!

    Maybe from Rudd the Australian people will know just what kind of a Revolution his education revolution will be, so far its been light on detail, like his IR policy to date?

  11. “415
    centaur_007 Says:
    November 14th, 2007 at 12:41 am
    That’s Constantinople you are referring to Xamiam. Ah the shame of it all.”

    Perhaps, perhaps. But it’s still Turkish delight on a moonlit night…

  12. Just read the SMH. Seems like Newhouse is in some serious touble regarding his nomination and not resigning from a position of profit. I’m not sying he is guilty, but from what I read it looks real sloppy re his resignation letter not being dated etc. Not a good look at all. The Libs will be all over this threatening a challenge if Turnbull loses. I wonder what damage it might do to the campaign in Wentworth, if any? What really annoys me is that some minor NSW minister released the story. What a dope!

  13. Grog,
    The answer to your trivia question – previous PM and Treasurer who went to the same school – is Menzies and Holt, Wesley College, Melbourne. However, they weren’t contemporaries, unlike Rudd and Swan where there’s only a couple of years difference.
    The trick answer is Chifley who was simultaneously PM and Treasurer, so from 1945-49, it could be said that the PM and Treasurer went to the same school. I don’t know if the early days of the Commonwealth would provide any additional examples. I’m certain you have to go back to Bruce’s PMship or earlier to find any if they exist.
    Voter Boy, I lived in Stockholm for a year and loved it. I didn’t find the winter cold a problem so much as the brief daylight, but of course for a single year it was a novelty. I heard from people who stayed for a second year, that the 2nd winter was a real downer (pun intended). I’ve lived in very few places, but among those I’ve visited, I’d put in a word for Vienna, Salzburg, Berlin and Florence.

  14. “A “senior ALP source” tells the Northern Territory News that party polling has their candidate Damian Hale “just ahead” of CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon. The source further notes that such polls do not factor in the Defence vote at Robertson Barracks, suggesting the race is actually “neck and neck”.”

    Tollner is a real goose and a waste of a position any decent candidate would whip him – but unfortunately haven’t heard too much from Damian. I guess he is out there working the electorate. Heard him speak once, sounded pretty good.

    qualification: I hardly watch local tv so could be missing what is going on.

    Rudd just gave all their families free medical. That will no doubt add a few votes to Damian.

  15. 406
    Chris in LDN Says:
    November 14th, 2007 at 12:21 am

    Cmon, Sydney’s hardly international, honestly, is it?

    A bit harsh on the city that hosted the best Olympic Games ever. !

  16. Getting sidetracked by the Getaway flashbacks

    but Jack at 413…….. that’s how they do business up here.
    They know what they’re doing and it’s going to deliver the party another new seat to form a government.
    Tollner is a clown and he’s currently digging his own grave, the boys and girls are just about to give him a push into it. Hope that helps understand what’s going on bro.

  17. NOT SO MAD MAX

    Tollner has one advantage though and you must concede this to him, he has the redneck vote stitched up there in Darwin, maybe the locals like having a hick as their MP maybe that’s why he’s held Solomons for so long?

  18. Kina

    Would it not be fantastic for a PHD or journalist of serious mind, equipped with resources to track and document the real reasons for and consequences of John Howard’s decisions, since his coming to office? Rather than the type that is delivered by biographers to date.

    Point, to one only, for instance, on earlier thread.

    ‘Will From Kooyong 704 Says November 13th, 2007 at 1:09 am
    Bennelong and Herbert ‘polls.

    ‘Australia is soon to feel the effects of a 30% drop in postgraduate researchers since 1995. I wonder who is to blame for this? I was doing my MSc when Howard got in and cut funding out of universities and especially research’.

    I, for one, have only ever understood Howard’s cutting down of RnD, difficulties in the way of access to Higher Education, defunding of apprenticeship programs,
    I could go on….but he only wanted to wipe out anything in place, because it was not Howard. Didn’t matter, the worth, the value.

    The same tracking should be done for the future Labor Government.

  19. Just looked at the Newhouse stuff. If he didn’t sort all this out, he’d an idiot, and so are the people in Sussex Street and his campaign director. Sheesh…

    Meanwhile also read the SMH’s stories on the exchange of emails between Outhouse and Over-and-out. Colour writers should keep their jokes in their columns. Her emails are seriously unprofessional and she will get her @rse kicked on this for sure.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/emails-explore-reporters-own-preferences-then-turn-nasty/2007/11/13/1194766675346.html

  20. Well his is the third party in the coalition at the moment and as such, just scrapped over the line last time. The political climate has changed even further in the past 3 years and fortunately, the rednecks are less and the ones that are left are cringing when he speaks.
    Sorry to say bro, but Tollner has to go.

  21. The US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are costing nearly double the amount previously thought, according to a report set to be released by Congress.

    Democrats say the wars have cost $1.5 trillion – almost twice the requested $804bn (£402bn) – because of “hidden costs”, the Washington Post reports.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7092053.stm

    Obscene waste of money – and lives. How much as JH wasted on this so far?

  22. China’s central bank has moved to cool inflation by raising the proportion of funds that the county’s lenders must keep in reserve rather than lend out.

    Aiming to cut the levels of yuan in circulation, the People’s Bank of China is increasing the banking reserve ratio by half a percentage point to 13.5%.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7089307.stm

    One for the Smirk. China is not so shy in dealing with inflation.

  23. It would be interesting to get behind the motivation for Howard policies.

    Dr Hewson said Howard only made policies with a view to their political effect.

    I have always wondered if he didn’t have a bit of social engineering in mind – to create a right-wingish thinking country. Hence his desire to control school curriculum, teacher rewards, write his own history, religious types [counselors] back in school, exercising much more restrictive control of Uni research grants – it wouldn’t be long and Creationism would be taught. With his new working poor under control the real right wing religious middle class types can rule in peace and comfort or some such thing.

  24. Glen Says: 427 November 14th, 2007 at 12:53

    ‘Tollner has one advantage though and you must concede this to him, he has the redneck vote stitched up there in Darwin, maybe the locals like having a hick as their MP maybe that’s why he’s held Solomons for so long’?

    Glen. It will afford me great pleasure to send your post to the Labor candidate, describing the current MP as an ‘hick.’ And, by inference, the voters.

  25. 413
    Jacques Chester Says:
    November 14th, 2007 at 12:35 am
    A “senior ALP source” tells the Northern Territory News that party polling has their candidate Damian Hale “just ahead” of CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon. The source further notes that such polls do not factor in the Defence vote at Robertson Barracks, suggesting the race is actually “neck and neck”.

    Pure bullshit to try and prevent the sympathy vote.

    That is certainly my take on it. The ALP are playing the underdog. If anything, I would expect the defence vote to go slightly to Labor this time around.

    422
    Kina Says:
    Tollner is a real goose and a waste of a position any decent candidate would whip him – but unfortunately haven’t heard too much from Damian. I guess he is out there working the electorate. Heard him speak once, sounded pretty good.
    qualification: I hardly watch local tv so could be missing what is going on.
    Rudd just gave all their families free medical. That will no doubt add a few votes to Damian.

    I’ve seen Hale on the local news a few time, he came across all right. Speaks clearly, but down to earth, neither a fool or full of himself. I think he might do a lot better than some think.

    427
    Glen Says:
    NOT SO MAD MAX
    Tollner has one advantage though and you must concede this to him, he has the redneck vote stitched up there in Darwin, maybe the locals like having a hick as their MP maybe that’s why he’s held Solomons for so long?

    You’re full of shit, Glen. Solomon is not full of ‘rednecks’. Tollner has held Solomon for 2 whole terms. Solomon has only existed as a seat for two terms, it was created for the 2001 election. Tollner only just won the first time around by 88 votes, and his current margin is a massive 2.8% (sarcasm alert). As things currently stand, he is not looking too good.

  26. [ Democrats say the wars have cost $1.5 trillion – almost twice the requested $804bn (£402bn) – because of “hidden costs”, the Washington Post reports.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7092053.stm

    Obscene waste of money – and lives. How much as JH wasted on this so far?]

    My guess is the U.S. government could’ve developed viable Nuclear Fusion power for $1.5 trillion. We will probably get there eventually, but this could’ve sped up the research by decades.

    In other news, the Liberals have broken their pledge to keep the budget within surplus by 1$ of GDP:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22755441-5013871,00.html

    That is what you expect from the economic dunces and rejects party. Any sensible economic manager wouldn’t walk down and sign up at their local Dunces & Rejects party branch.

  27. Oh Dear 🙂

    [THE headmaster of one of the nation’s richest private schools believes John Howard’s tax rebate for school fees should be means-tested.

    The King’s School headmaster Tim Hawkes, who weathered the storm of former Labor leader Mark Latham’s decision to elevate his school as the public face of his hit-list policy, has also endorsed Kevin Rudd as “politically astute”. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22755440-5014046,00.html

  28. The great deceiver is in a class of his own
    “With John Howard’s record establishing him incontrovertibly as a serial deceiver, he has a nerve to point the finger about credibility.”
    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/12/1194766588117.html?page=2

    I think the latest poll showing people believe John Howard is the person most likely to stab you in the back have now worked out that non-core is equivalent to lie and the answer to the question ‘who do you trust’ is certainly not the PM.

  29. Paul Kelly stating the bleeding obvious (and why not):

    The contradiction in Howard’s prime ministership has become too obvious. While pledging to transform Australia from “welfare state to opportunity society”, Howard has overloaded the truck of middle-class welfare. He delivers opportunity through a big spending conservatism and publicly funded tax breaks rather than via genuine liberalism.

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/paulkelly/index.php/theaustralian/comments/pm_stages_his_own_education_revolution/

  30. Interesting stuff Kina @ 445. I’m always amused when journos question Howard on his track record of broken promises and Howard always says “well people will make their judgment”. I’m still waiting for one of them to reply – “well given that the country seems to be in reasonable shape and yet the polls show voters are itching to turf you out, is it possible that voters have judged you on this and have decided that you are a shameless liar?”

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