D-day minus 11

• Big round of applause to whoever it is who runs this website, which looks like it will be the place to go for booth-level results on Saturday night. Included are maps of polling booth locations for every single seat.

• A “senior ALP source” tells the Northern Territory News that party polling has their candidate Damian Hale “just ahead” of CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon. The source further notes that such polls do not factor in the Defence vote at Robertson Barracks, suggesting the race is actually “neck and neck”.

• Independent candidate Danielle Ecuyer continues to capture more than her share of the media coverage from Wentworth. Yesterday she went public with an email from Caroline Overington of The Australian who told her, in what Peter Garrett might describe as a jocular moment, that she should direct preferences away from ex-boyfriend George Newhouse and towards Malcolm Turnbull, as it would be “such a good front page story”. In other Wentworth news, indignant gay rights campaigner Gary Burns has been dumped as a Labor volunteer after physically intimidating Lucy Turnbull and telling her husband he had a “middle-aged well-dressed ‘fag hag’ impersonator of a wife”. According to the Daily Telegraph, Burns reckons George Newhouse does “not know how to run a campaign”.

• The Greens will direct preferences to Labor over the Coalition in every Queensland seat except Wide Bay, where an open card will be issued as a gesture of protest over the Traveston Dam and council amalgamations.

• Hat tip to Sacha Blumen for drawing my attention to the fact that a state redistribution process is under way in Queensland. The deadline for submissions of “suggestions” passed yesterday, so publication of proposed boundaries is presumably still a few months away. A redistribution of Tasmanian Legislative Council boundaries is at a similarly early stage.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

486 comments on “D-day minus 11”

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  1. I’m starting to feel like this election is in the ‘last week of school’ phase.

    The media is running a lot more stories about a lib defeat, the man who would be PM, etc etc.

    Fingers crossed for the final blows in the campaign launch todya.

  2. S

    The ‘feeling’ of a change is everywhere you go – on the street, backyard BBQ’s, the local RSL Club, in shopping centres, workplaces and so forth.

    Gee – even the little old ladies are starting to say, ‘Mr Rudd will be good PM’.

    Hello Kevin, Goodbye Johnny!

  3. Regarding city comments, let me put a word in for Boston, truly lovely. I have spoken previously about Spivney, the whole Wentworth luvvie fest says all about the joke that is Sydney. Take away the harbour and there aint much left.

  4. I commented that I thought this was a loaded question and then questioned him on who he thought he was conducting this poll for. Amazingly he stated that he had a good idea who given the nature of the question but didn’t elaborate further. I think at that point we both knew who it was for, internal the Liberal Party.

    LOL! The Libs are using push polling to continue their delusions. As I undertand it only Howie and the campaign director get to see the Lib’s internal polling because the rest of the party can’t be trusted, so
    this poll must be to keep the serial deceiver deceived. Maybe Janette requested it.

  5. 366: “I commented that I thought this was a loaded question and then questioned him on who he thought ”

    What possible use is push polling for internal polls???? Do they want the delusion to be propagated?

  6. Riding this election is like a roller coaster ride of the emotions. I thought we had it in the bag. Then I get to talking to my work colleague, a swinging voter, who last week was keen on JWH’s demise. Now though, after more exposure to liberal advertising, out come these questions from him…

    What about wall to wall labour governments?
    I’m worried about interest rates under labour?
    What about the economy?

    He’s become a sponge to Coalition smear campaigning. And if this is the sort of doubt manifested in your average swinging voter, some of those marginals may be harder to secure than we think.

    When’s next ACN?

  7. You Bewdy Newhouse, you’ve just handed Wentworth to the Tories without a fight 🙂



    “Mr Robb says the electorate has a right to know if Mr Newhouse’s nomination is valid.”

    “The Minister, Linda Burney, has refused to release the letter and Mr Newhouse will not say when the letter was sent…”‘

    Liberals vs Green hands down victory for the Malcolm, can Labor even pre-select a candidate 2 weeks out from an election???

  8. Hold your nerve tdt.

    As for Newhouse, this can only bite Labor badly if the following four things all happen.

    1. Newhouse wins Wentworth (50:50)

    2. Labor wins the election by just one seat (extremely unlikely)

    3. Newhouse’s election is successfully challenged (quite likely)

    4. Newhouse loses the subsequent by-election (unlikely, if he got elected in the first place).

  9. Good points Spiros. And frankly, it doesn’t seem like Labor has been putting a great deal of effort into the island that is Wentworth over this campaign. As opposed to Bennelong particularly. It doesn’t seem to be in the top 20 targeted.

  10. Not sure that is true Glen, particularly if there is conjecture about forms, dates etc. It would all need to go through the courts, and would not be finalised before the election. So in reality the actual challenge would only come after.

  11. I heard Antony Green on ABC Radio this morning and the election goes ahead as is in Wentworth and will get sorted in the courts afterward, even if Newhouse loses he can still contest in court!

    Anyone know about poll release dates?

  12. Glen (461), As I have already received my postal vote for Wentworth – and Newhouse’s name is on it – I think it would be a little difficult to prevent him standing at this stage.

    Funny you should say that about morale, Meng(449). Barnaby confirms this:

    COALITION MPs are getting depressed and frustrated over their parties’ poor performance in opinion polls, which are uniformly pointing to a Labor landslide, Nationals senator Barnaby Joyce has said.


    As for Boston (Stan @ 453), I think Sydneysiders feel quite at home there – it might be the higgledy-piggledy streets – it’s a lovely city with a terrible climate: long hot humid summer and long freezing winter (5 months each), and 1 beautiful month each of spring and autumn. Fall is spectacular, though.

  13. @ #
    ShowsOn Says:
    November 14th, 2007 at 1:47 am

    Does anyone know what time the Labor campaign launch starts tomorrow?

    Kevin o7 Website says 1:30 pm Australian Eastern Time, which is 12:30 in Brisbane.

  14. Jude, I notice Barnaby to his credit does mention the inland railway – I’m all for this and disappointed that nobody has brought this up before, AFAIK. Also would like to hear something about modernising ports infrastructure. This campaign has not had much substance but I guess Howard’s opening gambit always ensured that.

  15. Yes, Wysiwyg, Barnaby has every right to feel frustrated – as does every taxpayer – at the typical Howard strategy of scare and bribe, completely failing to lift those bushy eyebrows to take in a vision of the infrastructure that might have been. All those wasted surplus billions.

  16. If Kevin was clever he would trump howard’s sedge – he could answer with an education family and health bonus tax credit.

    i.e leaving the present rebate for computers books technology at $375 primary and $750 secondary which is targetted for education ‘enhancement’

    and then provide ‘working families’ with relief for other costs in bringing up secondary school kids with an emphasis on health outcomes for kids as well- as extra curricular stuff, sporting club fees, gyms, uniforms, school shoes, school trips, maybe healthy school lunches …and ……. and……….school fees (sorry comrades)

    Another $2.1 billion at 50% familes could get up to $1500 per kid.

    Howard could not roll out another $6 billion.

    Wedge gone …labour offering more to familes who need it while underspending coalition.

    game over.

    then the real work of rebuilding education can take place over succeeding years

  17. Chris in LDN, I work in infrastructure (railway control systems – our Brisbane office is our corporation’s R&D centre of excellence worldwide in this area). In the last decade we have done hardly anything in Oz, but lots of work worldwide esp China & UK. Part the states’ fault and part the feds; but the infrastructure rundown is verging on criminal, and very frustrating when the country has all the resources (human and financial) required to address this.

  18. Some media outlets interpret the following Howard quote from AM as an invitation for a face-to-face debate with Rudd. Is that right? Or is he simply asking for a debate in the broader sense from now until Nov 24?

    “If Mr Rudd wants to have a debate about surpluses between now and election day, make my day.”

    A big risk if Howard actually wants a face-to-face debate but then desperate times..

  19. I heard Barnaby Joyce on the radio this morning. What a tonic! Fearing annihilation, he dreams of railways and hopes things will be close. Without saying so much he is acknowledging what everyone knows: the coalition has been completely out-campaigned all year and continue to mess things up. From a disabled leadership to misguided strategies and fatal policy bungling, they have allowed their political fortunes to disintegrate. Really, a tonic!

  20. “The trick answer is Chifley who was simultaneously PM and Treasurer, so from 1945-49, it could be said that the PM and Treasurer went to the same school. I don’t know if the early days of the Commonwealth would provide any additional examples.”

    On that loophole, Watson and Fisher were their own Treasurer, as was Fadden and for parts of their PMship Scullin and Whitlam.

  21. Anyone catch Jenny Brockie on SBS with the swinging voters audience? IMHO, its frustrating to be reminded just how disengaged and ill informed some people are (shades of 4 corners). I’d be embarrassed not to have a clue by a few weeks into a campaign. OK they’re swinging (like windsocks I think) but what are they expecting to hear over the next 10 days?

  22. Yeah, infrastructure. Mr Sneaky and his mates have spent their political lives chanting the ‘private good/ public bad’ mantra and demonising public borrowing, so it’s no wonder our public hospital, education and transport systems are almost Third World standard.

    On the apparent Wentworth debacle – would not be surprised to learn that Labor has not seriously expected to win Wentworth anyway, but has used it as a diversion for sapping Liberal Party energy and resources.

    Still can’t see Labor getting the net 16 seat gain (but will be glad to be proved wrong, yet again) – everyone seems to have forgotten that after 2004 it was generally agreed 2007 would be very difficult for Labor. The Howard myth makers know this (and he wouldn’t have stayed on otherwise) and will portray a close victory for the Coalition (albeit with a minority of the vote, as in 98) as a great comeback for Mr Sneaky, when the reality is otherwise. Either way, we’ll be finally rid of him, but not his legacy unfortunately.

  23. 481
    EdenMonaro Resi Says:
    November 14th, 2007 at 12:40 pm
    Anyone catch Jenny Brockie on SBS with the swinging voters audience?

    I watched part of this program. The thing that struck me was the number of past-Liberal voters who were not willing to declare their voting intention. They are either geuninely undecided or just not willing to go public with their preference, either because they intend to switch to Labor or because they feel awkward in stating support for Howard. It was not a good look for the Liberals. The other noticeable thing for me was Gillard’s ability to be succinct while injecting warmth and humour as well as directness into her messages. She comes across as the human face of federal politics.

  24. If Kevin goes on Rove and is asked the “Who would you turn gay for?” question, he must answer NELSON MANDELA. This is an absolutely impregnable answer.

  25. blindoptimist – very much agree on Gillard’s presentation although going up against Downer is not like playing against the varsity team IMO. 🙂

  26. Apparently JWH ‘s values expressed in Monday’s launch were lifted from a 1942 Menzies’ speech.

    KR will perhaps create a national skills-based curriculum, like the Western Canadian Protocol. The WCP was drawn up by senior class-room teachers (not head office admin) and implemented grade by grade, subject by subject over a decade. If you’d like to see the result, it’s set out on the Alberta Ed website under the Curriculum Branch. The other Branch, Student Assessment is responsible for Diploma Exams and Achievement tests, given each May to grade 3, 6 and 9 rotating through a cycle of maths, language arts and social. The WCP was expensive because it involved substitute teachers, accommodation, travel expense etc for committee members coming from every school district in the province: these committees met for two years to design each new curriculum, then during the following year when it was piloted.

    If KR does choose this project as his “educational revolution”, it will
    (a) address a need already expressed by Australian parents
    (b) have the advantage of not being inflationary

    This is not the same as standardization- the old joke being that every geography teacher in Texas had to be on page 200 by April 1st, and each one’s name was Coach.

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