The Australian has produced another set of Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns, suggesting we will be getting such figures compiled from the previous two weekly surveys each Thursday. That means both today’s breakdown and last Thursday’s were half composed of the October 26-28 survey. To produce these figures, Newspoll has increased its samples from 1000 to 1700, the extras coming from smaller states so that each has a credible sample of between 650 and 700 over a fortnight. As well as this, Newspoll is evidently doing more specialised surveys on weekdays for publication on Saturday (sometimes, at least – there was no such survey at the end of week two). So far we have been given the Bass and Braddon polls that appeared at the end of week one, along with last weekend’s marginal seats survey. The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell, or someone who did a very good impression of him, appeared in comments a few days ago saying the latter exercise would be repeated later in the campaign.
The chart below shows how Newspoll’s projected swings to Labor have tracked out since the middle of last year. It seems that with the exception of Western Australia, the figures were closely knotted together until the election was announced, at which point they scattered: the swing has held firm in Queensland and South Australia, but returned to earth in New South Wales and Victoria. This provides corroborating evidence which had previously been lacking for the relatively mediocre NSW swing in the weekend’s marginal seat poll. That the Victorian swing is now level with Western Australia’s is perhaps more of a surprise. And then there are those swings in Queensland and South Australia, which seem firmly set in double figures. If that’s the case, Queensland will almost deliver Labor the election single-handedly, with 14 seats to fall from a uniform swing of 11 per cent. In South Australia, every figure Newspoll has produced since Rudd became leader suggests Labor should win big in Sturt and Boothby, a prospect most informed observers seem reluctant to countenance.
Last night’s comments action also brought forth some purported intelligence on Labor internal polling, which you can read here and here. This may of course be a red herring of one kind or another, but my instinct is to take people who name themselves after Ramones songs at their word.
71 Ralph
I can only hope that the Turnbull-Garrett environment debate does turn out to be a cancel out of gaffes, as you satirically suggested. Garrett will have to punch well above his weight to draw the bout with a person of Turnbull’s intelligence and toughening experiences whilst heading up the Republic Referendum campaign.
However, hard to imagine how this debate would be likely to change any votes. Younger to middle age voters will continue to back Garrett no matter how badly he stuffs up, but after today Rudd might be judicious to send him to wherever Team Howard hides its Ministers Kevin Andrews and Philip Ruddock.
Yes, Ralph, I know what you mean. Yes, they are the 2nd party of the Right and have been since neoliberalism came in …………its kind of depressing, but I am just hoping for some changes, and maybe in 30 years time when this ideology dies, they will be more in the centre/left
BY the way, I am in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, is anyone having an election party in inner west, city or east? I would love to come!!
Nope, it would be catastrophic if the ALP didn’t win this election, especially after all this consistently good polling and the decade in the wilderness. It would be the mother of all bloodbaths.
Right now is a perfect time for Rudd to outflank Howard on a strong Coalition policy area.
For instance, national security. Make a bold announcement beefing up coastal patrols up north. Something like that. Get Howard scrambling to “me too”. Change the subject. Now.
96 [Perhaps it would be a blessing in disguise if Labor lost this one.]
Dream on. There is no good reason for a divided rabble like the present Government to be re-elected.
Liberals to recognise gay relationships…not however while both partners are still alive…. there existence will only be legally acknowledged after the death of a partner. Sad and cruel.
Coalition have won the election.
Respect the result. Respect Howard
Sri Lanka won the toss and put Australia into bat. Ponting must be pretty happy I think 🙂
Ralph at 80
I think Mr Costello would strongly disagree with you.
“The Howard treasurership was not a success in terms of interest rates and inflation. He had not been a great reformer.”
At the end of Mr Howard’s treasurership, inflation was running at 11 per cent and bank interest rates for home loans were 12.5 per cent. Even Mr Costello challenges Mr Howard’s determination as a reformer and even his veracity in claiming to have attempted reform as treasurer.
Speaking of the Campbell inquiry’s recommendations for the deregulation of the financial sector under the prime ministership of Malcolm Fraser, he said: “He [Mr Howard] would say to you now, ‘Oh well, I was always in favour of it and Malcolm stopped it’.
“You know, the truth of the matter is if he had really wanted to push it he could have pushed it.”
Similarly, Mr Costello takes issue with Mr Howard’s record as a fiscally responsible treasurer. While Mr Howard has since said he threatened to resign in protest at Mr Fraser’s profligacy, Mr Costello questions this: “He was threatening resignation a long time after the event but there was no evidence at the time.”
I expect Garrett to hold his own and this will be good experience, as he is still wet behind the ears.
Turnbull is not far behind and he will have to perform, considering the government’s record on these issues.
I’m considering going to an election party in Adelaide. But not sure whether to go to the party or watch it at home on the tele with my feet up, some pizza and a few coldies. If you go to an election party and the result doesn’t turn out the way you want it to, it could end up being a wake!
Only if the Libs have control of the Senate. Over the life of the Whitlam government the senate reject more than 90 bills outright – compared to about 60 in total from Federation up to that point. Nobody can effectively govern in that environment.
I doubt this current crop of born-to-rule inbreds would try it again, but you never know.
What I will also say is that there’s a lot of people here seriously underestimating Peter Garrett. Tell me, who won this exchange?
I’d forgot about that biography. Why the hell isn’t the Costello line “The Howard treasurership was not a success in terms of interest rates and inflation. He had not been a great reformer.” Plasted on billboards, TV web , back of milk cartons?
It’s absolute gold. There are couple of campaign free kicks here for Rudd. Stop pussy fotting around. It’s not overly negative and gets to the heart of the mythology the Libs have spun on economic management
109 John Hunt is a Coward said: “Similarly, Mr Costello takes issue with Mr Howard’s record as a fiscally responsible treasurer.”
Good point, JHiaC, which is reinforce by the battle of the graphs between Howard and Costello yesterday.
Whereas Mr. Howard’s graph mentioned is cut discretely off on the left at the convenient year of 1983 so as not to reveal the soft porn of Mr. Howard’s 22% rates when Fraser’s Treasurer, Mr. Costello had an R-rated graph (might contain obscenities like a Recession and Higher Interest Rates) which pointedly did not bother to censor out the Fraser/Howard years. Could this be a subtle hint from Prince Peter that a re-elected Coalition might not be as totally harmonious as Mr. Howard wants to to believe?
Edward StJohn Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 10:41 am
Labor will win and we will see Whitlam Govt MKII
ESJ, a learned man such as you sure gets me worried when I read comments like the one above! I actually thought Hawke would have been closer to that mark but I was wrong. But for you to imply that “The Ruddster” is Whitlam MkII well now I’m going to check for ‘reds under the bed’. Fairdinkum you can do better than that ESJ!
This is the other line that Labor should be pushing. A vote for the Libs is an endorsement of Workchoices. You didn’t get to vote for it last time, so if you vote for it now they’ll think you like it.
Could be good strategy, Flash @ 104.
Could Rudd embrace some pseudo Hansonism to appeal to the battlers out there. Rather than labor fearing a wedge, they should launch their own Tampa.
What was wrong with Gough – he is a God.
Anyone know how the Nat’s campaign is going. I can see the polling results, which seem to be holding, but I was wondering if anybody has other info/views on their campaign.
I was looking forward to their increasing demise this election but that doesn’t seem to be occuring.
Paladin, that’s from way too long ago, and thus irrelevant.
111 [If you go to an election party and the result doesn’t turn out the way you want it to, it could end up being a wake!]
Even Howard’s handpicked cabinet doesn’t want him as leader. The one thing the Australian voters will not tolerate is public displays off party disunity. There will be a wake alright but not the from the side you were thinking of. Disunity is death. Just ask the Queensland tories.
I think Garrett is great when it comes to heart-felt passion, but a bit light on when it comes to reasoned logic. That’s why he struggles moving from activism, where he was so effective, into mainstream politics where he has to play a straight game.
I think Garrett v Turnbull will be similar to Costello v Swan. Garrett will be well-prepped and won’t offer up any gaffes, he’ll appear professional and he’ll stick to the party line. It’ll be a fairly neutral outcome with no knockout blows on either side.
Lord D @ 120. irrelevant??? I disagree. This is a comment from his deputy and PM aspirant. Labor didn’t say it, a commentator didn’t say it. Peter Costello said it. It’s gold and should be used.
Turnbull is a smart guy. He will bait Garrett; lead him in to a trap, I fear. Hope I’m wrong but just consider the disaster if a Garrett blooper led the TV news tonight.
ESJ-Suggesting Whitlam MK2 is the silliest thing youve psoted on here. Like Rudd is anywhere near the reformer Gough was. Good Grief-You are normally more astute than that. But if you are suggesting that an incoming ALP Government is about to inherit a an economy that is on the way down like it was in ’72 and that the Tories have squandered good economic times there might be some truth in that.
Most likely unemployment will be down – with Christmas casuals, holidays, etc. Maybe it’s too early. On the other hand a blog over at the SMH had lots of people describing the bitter experience of Centrelink and finally needing to walk away.
As the Rats tax cuts are delivered as welfare for Liberals, many of them will be telling similar stories of Centrelink battles.
Queensland Labor uses ads focusing minds on the coalition infighting. With the coalition ads already doing the hard work of advertising at least 70% unity for Labor. Labor could exploit the factional splits in the Tories.
Good Lord, you’re describing him as the consummate politician!
ESJ is just yanking your chain to get a response.
Required reading by all.
Sheep too. Especially Comments.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/line_dancing_labors_way/P0/
Agree, the nightly news with Garrett running off at the mouth is the last thing labor needs right now. He needs to be very careful and stick to his script.
Hope I’m wrong Ralph but there is something about the guy that makes me extremely nervous. Maybe that old footage used in this week’s Coalition ad has fuelled my fears.
I agree: Rudd needs a nice wrap up couple of weeks, emphasizing positive vision, and let Howard make all the running on his confusing interest rate story, and his bizarro world workchoices equals high wages AND wage restraint nonsense.
Emphasises the its time factor, play it safe, not too negative, on the front foot with vision, wrap up the climate and education message nicely.
I suspect he’ll do exactly that.
ALP to romp in. Watching the Tories lose their marbles over the next fortnight will be a fun sideshow.
The sudden change in NSW seems to come from females in the 35-49 age bracket.
The previous big change in Victoria seems to have come from the over 50s.
Calling the election/tax cuts made the Victorian over 50s jump to Howard but not the NSW ones. A week or so later it appears calling the election/tax cuts made the 35-49 NSW females jump to Howard.
The precipetous changes in Vic and NSW appear disconnected in demographic and timing.
108 – we in england dont like cricket and regard it as an irrelevance!
LOL
I would encourage you to think of how EGW was perceived pre-1972. He was seen as a class traitor who would have fitted in better to the English Liberal Party rather than the ALP and remarkably enough as an economic conservative.
I think whilst there is a consensus that Rudd is a control freak there is also a wide divergence of views in the ALP on issues such as the role of unions, spending etc and a lot of ministers getting in for the first time in their fifties. Like Whitlam people getting into the ministry in their fifties after a long time out will be anxious to make their mark and spend, spend, spend. With a small majority too – anyone who is knifed or denied will make all sorts of noise and trouble so there will be a real reluctance to spend. Where there is a divergence in views you get lots of internal arguments and disputes.
If Labor doesnt get control of the Senate you can expect the Liberals to be ruthless in blocking bills – even to the point of voting with the Greens to block legislation.
Finally I think there is a real prospect of the economy tanking in 2009. Just in time for KR to wear the blame a la Whitlam. It will be interesting as to the level of control he will be able to exercise – for example does anyone think he will really be able to give Mike Kelly or that Bennelong women a ministry over the heads of people who have waited 15 years or so for a go?
Sorry should have said real reluctance to deny anyone
What amazes me is that Labor doesn’t make more of the Coalition’s duplicity on WorkChoices. On one hand, they boast that real wages are up. But in the next breath, they say that it’ll keep a lid on inflation and therefore interest rates. Which is it? How can it boost your wages more than Labor’s IR system but simultaneously prevent wage breakouts and inflation? Doesn’t make sense to me.
Have we confirmed that NLP have won the election?
Where is Will and Lord whatsitname?
LOL Labor
Geez, a couple of people buying into Malcolm Turnbull’s superficial glam.
He’s a smart person and can make nice pre-prepared wishy washy big picture speeches, but his off the cuff media performances suggest that he doesn’t have the ability at the moment to lead anybody into a “trap” in a debate.
Ralph,
Instead of a tribunal saying everybody gets 4% wage increase it means areas where an employer can afford it getting 10% and areas were the employer cant afford it getting less than 4%.
LOL labor = finished.
Liberal = 40 maj
[Instead of a tribunal saying everybody gets 4% wage increase it means areas where an employer can afford it getting 10% and areas were the employer cant afford it getting less than 4%.]
ESJ, you are of course ignoring the fact that ALP IR policy has been since Keating built upon enterprise bargaining not central wage fixing.
141 – ESJ: which is also the ALP’s policy and has been since decentralised wage fixing and enterprise bargaining came in in 1993 or thereabouts.
How the media lets the PM get away with sprouting off that pattern bargaining will come back if Labor gets in is beyond me.
ave it 07 = tabitha
ave it 07 = sad, sad man.
I’m reposting a question and reply on the Meganomics Blog, because I thought it was particularly enlightening for those of us who are not economists.
Ave it 07, drunk on power and completely deluded like his IDOL JWH.
EStJ, the ALP needed (and got) a control freak. it’s got them where they are today, staring down the barrel of a major hammering of el rodente et al.
ESJ
Whitlam Govt MKII?
One could argue that a better analogy is Sir William McKell in NSW. He inherited a narrow pool of talent, as has Rudd. He saw that in order to win government, he had to win the rural vote. Rudd sees he must win and maintain the support of the middle class. McKell chose key candidates, with mainstream credentials, many not members of the ALP. So has Rudd.
This moderate, right-wing NSW Labor Party crafted by McKell held power for 24 years, and his legacy remains to this day.
As for the Left, there is nobody there today who can hold a candle to the persuasive passion of Jim Cairns, the intellect of Lionel Murphy, or the numbers ability of Tom Uren.
Times have changed, for sure.