Newspoll has been sprung on us a day early, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor’s primary vote is up from 47 per cent to 48 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down from 41 per cent to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd has taken a slight hit on his satisfaction rating, down from 65 per cent to 62 per cent.
Daughter 8 of Sanjay the Omnipresent said
Sigh! watch this space. Pollbludger seems to be going the way of OzPolitics. A victim of it’s own success, infested with blogojerks. Is this the end of online debate? Is every free forum doomed to be swamped by the rabble? What chance does rational debate have against the tide of uninformed and irrational polemics.
#492 Generic Oracle. For your information.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/201045.stm
It is getting off topic. And I shall leave it there.
Generic Oracle… I’d like to believe it’s not all ‘left-leaning’ people who are so intolerant. I’m sure you’d agree that making a blanket assertion on left-leaning people is kind of what you’re objecting to to start with.
I agree Noocat. 😉
Glen how long do you think Cossie will last as opposition leader and who do you prefer to take over, Bishop, Turnbull or your old favourite Oil Nelson.
Marsupials are tough creatures.
Never before have I seen a Possum get run over repeatedly by a Carr only to get back up and ask for more.
This blog is fast becoming a spectator sport, and a blood sport at that.
Glen,
What has the ALP done for the bush you ask?
More to the point, what has the National Party (the so-called “bush partyâ€) done for the bush? Nothing. The Nats have had 27 years to fix broken towns in the Riverina and they’ve achieved nothing – diddly-squat. And you question the polling figures of the former Country Party? Riverina and similar rural divisions would be much better served by independents: Tony Windsor has demonstrated that by his actions. The Nats are dying a slow and miserable death, and little wonder; they’re nothing more than a superfluous rabble of yes-men (and women) to the Liberal Party.
On topic:
Any word on the “extra questions†contained in the latest Newspoll survey?
If there’s one thing I just can’t stand, it’s intolerance.
[ woe betide any blogger here who has the audacity to believe in a Judeo-Christian God ]
Which is code for there should be no separation between Church and State.
Possum,
Thanks for your beakdown of the quarterly newspoll numbers. Very interesting. It provokes the question: Why is the measured swing so much greater in safe coalition seats? Is there anything that stands out? Workchoices is not an obvious factor? Is it climate change? Afterall, if climate change is not dealt with, eventually there will be no economy to worry about. Or is it that the “scare factors” have less bite among the more affluent?
Any thoughts?
Regarding the discussion on Govt Advertising, I fully support John Howard over Glen:
On September 5, 1995, John Howard issued a statement as leader of the opposition: “In a desperate attempt to find an election life raft, the prime minister [Paul Keating] is beginning an unprecedented propaganda blitz using taxpayers’ money. This soiled government is to spend a massive $14 million of taxpayers’ money over the next two months as part of its pre-election panic. If the full communications barrage runs its course it could reach $50 million …
“This grubby tactic will backfire.
“Taxpayers will see through it. They don’t want their money wasted on glossy advertising designed to make the prime minister feel good. Keating is about to boost government promotion to a massive new high. It’s time a brake was put on this fraud. There is clearly a difference between necessary government information and blatant government electoral propaganda. Now the government is going to use taxpayers’ money on a disgraceful scam.
“In any other business, the shareholders would revolt and throw out the management which wasted their money. The problem for the government is not communication. The problem is that it is tired, it has broken too many promises, it has hurt too many people. This propaganda blitz will make the electorate feel even more angry.”
Now, that’s what I call hypocrsiy!
And assume Keating’s $14mill was double that for today, we have 28 days of Howard government advertising at the current one mill a day now.
How much has Howard spent this year–$100/200 million?
Keating was wrong. Howard is multiple times wrong by comparison, question is how do we stop it?
Blindoptimist, for what it’s worth, I made a few humble suggestions on the subject back in post 316 (without even mentioning climate change or WorkChoices).
Generic Oracle Says:
Thank’s for the kind words. I don’t think that some people understand that they can sometimes unknowingly, make allegations about something that they know very little about and which can deeply offend something that a person regards as being very precious to them.
I don’t think people like Ackerman fall into that category and am always hopeful of them eventually getting their just deserts.
Coonan was atrocious tonight, trying to defend the Coalitions disastrous privatisation of Telstra. This has to be one of the Libs most diabolical stuff ups of all time. Other than IRAQ and AWB of course.
Some people including the Coalition front bench are wondering why the polls are looking so bad for them all year. They should take off the “Rose coloured” glasses and take a good look at interviews such as that tonight. The answer is staring them right in the face if they care to look.
Interesting sign of the times. I live in the electorate of Isaacs and just received a political flyer. It is green all over and it reads: It’s easy being green…
You guessed right…it is of course from Ross Fox the LIBERAL (not green) candidate. There is no mention of Howard, there is no blue liberal colour, there is lots of green and only a tiny little Liberal logo on top of a photo of a beach.
Has the Liberal brand suffered so much that is is now mud and they have to hide it? Has Howard turned into Mr Nuclearactive?
459
Glen Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 9:04 pm
Left E Rudd is a tourist when..
I admire loyalty, as a rule. But empty repetition of Abbottisms is hardly worth the effort. I guess I don’t mind a whole lot though – the pugilistic style of Mr Abbott is one of the reasons the coalition are going to get the biggest thrashing of all time. I know, in my own case, his over-blown and yet nakedly cynical rhetoric was the one final thing that clinched my vote for Mr Rudd. Let him sound off the more, and may you echo him as often as you can. So much the better for Labor.
515
Pauline Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 10:53 pm
Interesting sign of the times. I live in the electorate of Isaacs and just received a political flyer. It is green all over and it reads: It’s easy being green…
You guessed right…it is of course from Ross Fox the LIBERAL (not green) candidate.
…
Pauline, the Liberals now stand for nothing but a desire to hold onto office. You are quite right to point out their brand has been debased. Perhaps that’s why their greatest losses are in their (hitherto) strongest areas.
Glen: I feel a little sorry for you! It must be a hard job being the only vaguely sane defender of the Howard Government here LOL And even that statement has to be qualified, based on the absurdity of your most recent statements.
Tony Abbott: behaving like a petulant 5 year old. How dare the Australian people not reward his wonderous government blah blah blah!
513
Antonio Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 10:51 pm
Blindoptimist, for what it’s worth, I made a few humble suggestions on the subject back in post 316 (without even mentioning climate change or WorkChoices).
…
Antonio, thanks. i’ll have a read…
Generic
I read your comments with interest, as I do all contributors. It makes me sad that otherwise rational persons have this unhealthy attachment to a set of beliefs formed in prehistoric times, but I will defend to the death your right to express them.
Antonio says #404
“the alternative is for Labor voters to swing more strenuously towards themselves.”
Hey, is this the “hubrication” we’ve heard so much about? Is there any chance that a flogging with nastertiums is involved.. We could do that!
316
Antonio Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 5:21 pm
Ten possible reasons why the swing to Labor may be stronger in safe coalition seats:
…….
Antonio, your list contains lots of plausible ideas. I wonder if there is any data on voter motivation that would shed more light?
Baz 488
Adam and I are of the same mind on that issue I suspect.
[Glen how long do you think Cossie will last as opposition leader and who do you prefer to take over, Bishop, Turnbull or your old favourite Oil Nelson.]
Assuming Labor win, if Costello is smart he will let Turnbull have the job, lose an election or two, then Costello could have a go in 6 years.
In the mean time, Costello could try to broaden himself, say as shadow foreign affairs or perhaps education.
BAZ 488
Adam and I are of the same mind on that issue I suspect.
Whilst I dont agree with the specific seats on his coloured map – generally I would agree the quantum that Labor is looking at a net gain of approximately 20-25 seats at the moment. Whether that holds up to election day is a different story.
There’s no denying that the climate changes, it’s been doing so under natural causes ever since the earth was formed. The question today should probably be whether or not and if so, to what extent man’s activities worsen (or maybe improve?) the effects of natural climate change? IMO very important but complex and difficult questions to answer.
More importantly, what is the chance that the poisonous political and social climate of the recent past can be changed for the better?
[The question today should probably be whether or not and if so, to what extent man’s activities worsen (or maybe improve?) the effects of natural climate change?]
Even if it isn’t caused by humans if the effects of climate change have the capability of killing people, reducing food production, and damaging world economies, then it is a problem that needs a solution.
Pauline 510
Can you please cite the source for that?
That really has to become widely circulated.
Let me know if you have any objections.
I just got onto portlandBet, & they’ve suspended their seat by seat market… What does this mean? they’re quoting 1.40/2.90 for the election 67.4% chance of ALP victory.
The Liberals are the Nasty Party, I think that the majority of Australian do have a moral conscience and have had enough of things like, training scab labour for the warf dispute, Bathing seniors in Kero, the Iraq war, David Hicks, Dr Haneef, the AWB cover up, Dividing Australia over race, lying about GST, keeping us in fear with terrorisim, Mud Slinging political opponents yadda yadda yadda.
Leading Australia should be not just about looking after the coin, it should also be about developing a future for all Australians, a future where our children have job security and communities are built, a future where we are Australians together not Australians alone.
“Liberty, Equality, Fraternity”, its french for Fair Go Mate
I know that this was a rant but i need the election to be call my brain is frying.
Blindoptimist (at 509) asked:
Why is the measured swing so much greater in safe coalition seats?
IMHO it is a quirk of how we measure swings. If 10% of coalition voters change to Labor, this 10% represents a greater proportion of the total number of voters in a marginal seat.
For example:
In a seat with 50% Lib – 50% Labor vote. If 10% of Lib voters change to Labor, there will be a 5% swing (10% of 50% is 5%).
In a seat with 75% Lib – 25% Labor vote. If 10% of Lib voters change to Labor, there will be a 7.5% swing (10% of 75% is 7.5%).
In a seat with 25% Lib – 75% Labor vote. If 10% of Lib voters change to Labor, there will be a 2.5% swing.
If the swing was going the other direction, it would be greater in safe Labor seats.
Please let me know if there are flaws in my logic.
Given how out of touch Howard has been with public sentiment this year I am guessing he might be stupid enough to strongly support a unilateral US strike on Iran, in opposition to a UN approach. History repeating itself.
If there happens to be a UN plan [I think they have or are planning nuclear inspectors] of action Rudd need only support that and urge caution etc and he will win popular support.
If Howard was looking for annihilation then he could find it this way.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/vote.aspx?v=9&q=
531
Barry Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 11:41 pm
Blindoptimist (at 509) asked:
Why is the measured swing so much greater in safe coalition seats?
IMHO it is a quirk of how we measure swings. If..
….
Sounds too simple to be true, but I suspect you are a genius, Barry.
I don’t think Howard will be stupid enough to involve Australia in Iran, except perhaps to supply the oranges to US troops at half-time.
When is the next poll out? Is it next weeks AC Nielsen?
Did anybody watch Agenda on Sky News today.
Miranda Devine, from the SMH, believes that Kevin Rudd is still in a “honeymoon” period. This is why the polls are still good for the ALP.
There you go. A 10 month honeymoon, involving more personal scrutiny than any previous opposition leader.
But it gets better. Ms Devine then muses whether Rudd will stand up to the pressure and personal scrutiny during the heat of an election campaign.
Where has she been this year? In America?
And of course Ms Devine raised the issue of 70% of ALP MPs having a union background. I don’t know why she said this but she just threw it in mid conversation. It had nothing to do with the topic of discussion.
The fourth estate can be rather depressing.
At the risk of myself descending into the fray here, I believe a little adjudication is in order on this thread. I hesitate to make the kind of “blanket assertion on left-leaning people” that CTEP warns us against. Nevertheless, there is a definite tendency of some on the left to hold lazily hypocritical attitudes about religion. Julie @ 337 and Chris B @ 461 have both made comments they would not dare make about a certain other religion, and which I frankly would not dare publish. Both need to think harder before mouthing off in future.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
Gippslander @ 521
The definitive of “hubrication” is now resolved: Labor voters swinging with vigour among themselves.
Sounds all right to me.
Neil
Didnt you know Glen is Miranda Devine 🙂
“Didnt you know Glen is Miranda Devine”.
Couldn’t be Gus. He writes better than she speaks.
Its a sad day today. Not because of another great poll results its just the anticipation of an election so close yet we as a collective are put on hold… all denied. This phony war cost. By that I mean what support the government has is to surely erode away little by little. A death by a thousand cuts if you will.
I think all who add to this blog would rather pour themselves into writing about a real campaign than to wait on the PM to be an opportunist and dream on some good luck to occur and turn around from certain political annihilation. Dream on Howard. Yet we are here today/tonight just waiting, waiting and more waiting. It reminds me of a tooth that needs pulling out.. yet painful.
This in my mind has to be the most anticipated election in living memory – bigger than ’72 & yes the world will be watching us just like the Sydney Olympics.
Time to go & see the ‘electoral dentist’ Mr Howard.
Neil
Its all part of the cover 🙂
If you look at Seats by State at Portlandbet, they are predicting that Labor will win 26 seats, including 8 in NSW, 6 in QLD, 2 in Vic, 3 in WA, 4 in SA, 2 in Tas, 1 in NT.
Gus,
It’s a bloody good cover.
The insight was frightening.
Barry, I’ve thought it through and you’re right. Your observation helps identify the basic problem for the Liberals: a substantial proportion of their (very large 2004) primary vote has migrated to Labor. (This is a necessary consequence in a closed, binary system when change occurs…a good thing to remember.)
Miranda Devine one of those few who refuse to face reality and instead shake their fists at the sky in defiance of the approaching storm. A faith based response, the faith being Howard-anity.
A 10 month honeymoon? She is insulting the Australian public, suggesting that they have been blind for 10 months and also can’t see through a cynical govt.
How do media continue to employ journalists that are unable to see the world for the way that it actually and instead embark on some fantasy.
I am sure the Howard govt would like to cancel this election on the basis that Australians are sleepwalking and should be put into care.
kina @ 532 Says:
For some reason William doesnt see a link between Iran and the Federal election Kina, but on Friday I came across a Blog News site on Google News which I did a post on with a link but lost it in the bin.
Basically it was quite scary in that it had an article quoting 2 senior Naval Officers who were blowing the whistle on the US Govt bring forward refurbishment of an Aircraft Carrier which was to leave as part of a Battle Group to the Gulf today.
Apparently this Carrier Group was bristling with cruise missiles and was due in the gulf in about 20 days time. The Carrier Group which it is due to replace there has been instructed to remain at station in the gulf.
These Officers believe that orders have been given for an attack on Iran soon after the Group reaches the gulf which would be a major reason why Howard is dragging out calling the election.
From comments coming out of the US and the UK as well as from Downer, I believe there’s a good chance that Howard is banking on an electoral bounce from an attack on Iran just prior to polling day.
“Who do you trust with Australia’s security” will be the mantra, trying to capitalise on a tendency of people to stay with the current Government during a time of hostilities. Nothing is beyond the ability of this man to capitalise on anything to remain in power.
Just look at what Piers Ackerman is spewing out ad nauseum at present on the “Heiner” case. I hope he gets hit with a truckload of lawsuits by the end of the week for his trouble.
Surprise, surprise. Low paid workers now work more for less pay under AWAs
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/awas-more-work-and-less-pay/2007/10/01/1191091031239.html
That’s what this entire policy was for, to lower the cost of jobs for low skilled workers.
Why a country with a $17 billion surplus needs to do this to low income people I have no idea.
Kina #545
I have never been more amazed then when I watched Agenda.
It was surreal.
Howard ought to be careful. Playing with this sort of fire could backfire very badly like it has all year. If he makes the wrong move on something like this he might lose the Govt another 5 points. This is not 9/11 and the people may be afraid what Howard would committ Australia to.
Neil,Kina
Seriously i actually admire to a degree denialists such as glen and miranda
their zeal and solid support is worthy of the greatest propagandists
the only problem is they leave facts out of their tirades and instead rely on fairy stories and unverifiable data
though the 70% union members has me wondering still (insert spooky music)