Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Morgan’s now-weekly face-to-face poll, from a sample of 844, shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 59-41 to 56.5-43.5. The Coalition’s primary vote is up from 36 per cent to 39.5 per cent, and Labor’s down from 51 per cent to 49.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

828 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. BTW I haven’t seen any reason at all of why the polls should narrow yet and, it was only a week ago where many thought it might widen given APEC and Howard’s leadership woes. I would predict a 56-57

  2. What frustrates me about the News Ltd press in Australia is that it tends to provide reasonably balanced coverage of the two parties up until a certain point in time.

    Get anywhere near an election campaign, or even a phoney “lead-in” election campaign like we are currently experiencing and BAM they’re right there backing Howard and Co to the hilt.

    They flirt with the alternative right up until the point it counts. Then they’re back in bed with the devil they know.

    There was an article a few weeks back on Crikey suggesting that Murdoch was hedging his bets. I just don’t think that’s the case. I think it’s illusory.

  3. Ctep, this is one little ducky that they have lost.

    I have been buying News Ltd papers for 37 years and have now stopped all except the QLD Sunday Mail and after today’s effort, I won’t be getting it again either.

    I did a rough estimation of what it has cost me in today’s figures and it has been a considerable contribution to the Murdoch finances.

    Hopefully, enough similarly minded people really make it hurt their bottom line as their efforts during this election campaign have been abysmal and the “Rags” are only worthy of contempt.

    Strangely enough, I don’t really miss them as much as I though I might. I think I have gained a measure of control and can read what I want on-line anyway.

  4. Adam (739)

    An ALP 2PP of 57+ could have all sorts of unpredictable results. Can’t envisage any scenario where this will occur, though. The Libs attack on Rudd will bite to some extent.

    I am going for 54-46. Back to where it was a few polls back. Still good for Labor, though. Anything less than that and we can start to get nervous and hope the ALP have a humdinger of a campaign, running hard on WorkChoices.

  5. If the letters page is any indication, I think a lot of Labor voters have abandoned News Ltd for the Fairfax papers(SMH, The Age). It’s very rare you get a pro Howard letter published in the SMH.

  6. This is getting Surreal.

    The liberal party campaigning against itself. The Australian, unloading vile and dirt on Rudd but putting up long, well thought out and interesting comments that pull the opinion pieces apart. What is going on?

  7. 741
    Peter J. Nicol Says:
    September 23rd, 2007 at 10:15 pm

    Can someone please tell my why people consistently attempt to predict a random variable?

    These polls are far from random. They represent a trend, a theme, and have far reaching effects on the political landscape. The leadership meltdown in the Liberal party at the end of APEC for instance. Solely caused by the Newspoll that came out that week. We almost had a change of Prime Minister as a result of that one poll, on the back of a long term trend.

    And, as Barbara said, it’s fun 🙂

  8. Peter J. Nicol Says:

    “Can someone please tell my why people consistently attempt to predict a random variable?”

    It is not a random variable. Throwing a coin is random, the next outcome is not related to the last. How people will vote tomorrow is probable related to how they would have voted yesterday.

  9. Kina (745),
    I am a cynic but I don’t believe this theory of yours!
    If the nuclear industry was going to use lots of money to influence the election in favour of Howard, wouldn’t they just find a way to give the money to the Liberals’ campaign? Numerous bloggers have noted the Libs’ financial woes.
    Also, the whole point about sampling and other polling techniques is that they are part of the pollsters’ professional responsibilities. So yes, it would be dishonest to deliberately bias the sample as per the client’s instructions, for a publicly published poll. (If it’s a poll for a party’s own use only, I suppose they can do whatever they like).

  10. Kina @ 745.
    {There is enormous sums of business involved in this alone. AND where there is huge amounts at stake don’t be too surprised at what some might do. }

    Don’t forget the enormous financial muscle of the energy & oil industries. They have a lot to gain by retaining a Howard Government.

    Saw an interesting article on Nuclear Energy discussion taking place in the UK at the moment.

    {Most existing nuclear power stations are due to close by 2023 and the government has said its “preliminary view” is that new stations should be built – to reduce carbon emissions and Britain’s reliance on foreign oil and gas imports. }

    What is a worry is what they intend to do with their stockpile of Plutonium, a whole 100 tons of it and growing.

    {The UK has built up a stockpile of 100 tonnes of plutonium – enough to make 17,000 nuclear bombs, according to the country’s national academy of science. }

    {“Just over 6kg of plutonium was used in the bomb which devastated Nagasaki and the UK has many thousands of times that amount.

    “We must take measures to ensure that this very dangerous material does not fall into the wrong hands.” }

    And no mention of the many, many hundreds of tons of ordinary nuclear waste from forty years or so of Nuclear Power generation.

  11. Probably I am overly cynical having worked for a govt that was in power for 20+ years where what you thought was wrong was par for the course for them.

  12. Kina, I think if a polling firm/organisation were to do this, it would be at odds with other polls, and would also discredit said poll when the election results are also at variance. Surely the best approach is to get it right, and ensure your reputation is good, and stay in business.

    I understand your concern, and it’s an interesting angle to consider, but I just don’t think it is happening this way. Given that so many elements of the media are biased one way or the other, I grant that it’s not too much of a stretch to think the pollsters might also be affected in the same way. However, it’s in their best interests to avoid this trap at all costs.

  13. When you read stuff like this, one could almost be forgiven in thinking that there could be a link between what is being canvassed in the UK and what the Libs are pushing here.

    {Nuclear power is needed to help reduce carbon emissions and to ensure that the UK has secure energy supplies in the future, the prime minister has said.
    “We are not going to be able to make up through wind farms all the deficit on nuclear power,” Tony Blair told MPs.

    The government’s Energy White Paper has backed renewable energy and efficiency measures – but said the “preliminary view” supports more nuclear plants.

    Critics said more nuclear power could be a “dirty white elephant”.

    They also said a new consultation launched on the merits of nuclear power was a “farce”. }

    Maybe they are going to have a “Plebiscite” on it as well.

  14. I’m willing to go out on a limb and guess the Galaxy doesn’t show a major move. I suspect if it did the result would’ve been leaked by now?
    CETP 739

    That what I was thinking.

    And 739 comments! Is that a record? Will it be broken several times before election day?

  15. Chris B, I had them printed myself in Lismore and used global warming and not the Republican-inspired “climate change”. I have about 200 left. 1,800 have already been handed out. Where shall I send them and how many (maybe William can pass our addresses to each other)?

  16. Scotty, I don’t disagree with you there. Just a healthy sense of scepticsm that has been missing from many Aussies for a number of years now. ;]

  17. Adam,

    I quite like the “grainy”, less-than-slick, hand-held-camera quality. This is as down to earth as you can get. The message is “I like these people and I care about the things they care about.” It is a far cry from the smoooooth and creeeeeeamy Mr Turnbull.

  18. The number you get from each poll is random. If you did the same poll, asking the same question, 3 times on the same date, it is very likely you would get 3 different numbers. It cannot be predicted accurately and consistently except by giving a range.

    It is a bit like throwing two dice and taking the sum. It results in a number that is most likely to be 7, but could be anything from 2 to 12. You can’t predict each result, but you know that over time, they will cluster around 7.

    The polls are a bit like that. The number is +-MOE around whatever the ‘true’ result is.

    It is only luck, and not much else to pick a fixed number. The individual poll could be lower than the previous one, even though the trend is going higher.

    I might say, for instance, that the ‘true’ number is 57% TPP for Labor. The last poll was 59%, and this poll is 55%. Looks like a big result for the Liberals, but as it is all inside the 3% MOE, you wouldn’t know. It could even mask a 1% rise in the ‘true’ TTP for Labour in the second poll.

    Once again, I am happy to be corrected if I am wrong.

  19. “When former British prime minister Winston Churchill was urging the world not to appease Hitler, Mr Menzies described Churchill as a “menace”, Mr Hawke said.”

  20. If you all though 16 seats was a tough ask the Tories in the UK need 116 seats to govern the country…

    Ha typical Hawke…took him a long time to rear his ugly head in public after being dumped…even though Menzies has a far better record as PM than the Bobster!

    If Howard loses i wonder what sort of an influence on Australian politics he’ll have???

  21. If there is one thing that Labor are getting right this year, it is using the visual to frame and support the textual. The advertising as well as the set-piece media numbers have been brilliant. They tell subtle, emotive stories that will replay in voters’ memories.

    The best of them are far away from Parliament House – in the open streets, schools, farms, hospitals, workplaces. Rudd looks genuinely at home and in sync in these scenes. He looks confident and purposeful and at ease as well as personally connected. He’s one guy you would like to have visit you…Just brilliant at times.

    The more of this he can do, the better it will be for him. I think he will campaign the a*** off Howard and Costello.

    It’s no wonder the Liberals are feeling so cranky and no wonder Howard is unwilling to call the election.

  22. Bob Hawke also said this, Glen.

    {Mr Hawke predicted the coalition would run one of the worst smear campaigns in years during the election because it was so worried about the polls.

    “They are very worried,” Mr Hawke told reporters.

    “Now I’m not saying … every Liberal is going to play hard ball and dirty ball, but I think there is going to be more of it this time, because they are more worried than they’ve been before.”}

    Seems like he is well aware of the Libs “Dirt Unit”.

  23. Glen,

    Bobhawke is very popular in WA. He will add votes in the marginals here and fire up the party members. He’s still a real feelgood factor.

  24. And it looks like Beasley is helping Gray in his campaign too.

    Kim is also very popular with the locals and if he is seen to be strongly endorsing his replacement, it should assist Gray’s chances even more.

  25. This is just a tactic by Labor saying ooooh the Coalition is going to smear this and that and everything…but i dont consider smearing people when you point out their…inexperience…woeful policies…having an inexperienced front bench….no leadership skills….or past record under Wayne Goss…

    The ALP are just saying the Libs are going to smear so that any scrutiny of Labor during the campaign can be fobbed off by Rudd as just smear…another PR job if you ask me!

    Rudd wouldnt have lasted the difference if he’d faced the scrutiny Hewson had to in 1993…you complain about newslimited but your Wonder Boy Rudd has sailed through with 0 to none scrutiny…face it your boy Rudd has got off the hook on more than one occasions that would have had ministers or MPs heading for retirement!

    blindoptimist the most Hawke can do is rally the faithful he aint going to swing any votes…

    Scorpio all of you are forgetting that if you claim Abbot is running a dirt unit then clearly Albanese is running Labor’s dirt unit…no side is clean get that through your head!

  26. The fabricated ALP smears in the GG’s today are an obvious attempt to paint the campaign as 6 of one… Bad journalism.
    Rudd would be wise to avoid all temptations to smear, theres plenty of government policies that already scare the living S out of the electorate : WC, nuclear, Iraq, global warming….
    It should be like shooting fish in a barrel, they just need to shoot straight and avoid their feet!

  27. Hey Piping Shrike 345 other thread Sept 20

    ‘Crikey Whitey, what are you talking about, Rann losing? Because of Downer going back? I don’t think so’.

    Did you read the article on same in the GG Weekend?

    Makes you wonder where they get their news items, really.

    PS in case: Friend of mine brought the paper over, so have not betrayed my post Tampa no purchase Murdoch paper until and unless.

  28. Ha TofK but using Rudd’s definition of smear attacking the Government over nuclear power, workchoices and Iraq would constitute smear…

    Adam…nuclear power, Iraq and global warming are not going to decide this election though it is hard to see that IR wont be a strong issue but after all its the only issue the ALP differ with the Government just about the only original Labor policy…

  29. glen,

    you stick with those lines. just keep repeating them. eventually you will persuade yourself – if no-one else – that you are indeed the oracle of blogsville.

  30. Richard Jones I live in Melbourne. I could give out as many as you have. The more the merrier. William can pass on my email. Thanks this is wonderful. I suspect I will find lots of people wanting to do the same. As I have been saying all along on this site Global Warming is one of the hot button issues.

  31. Glen, I never said nuclear power, Iraq and/or global warming would decide the election, though obviously they are influencing some voters in middle-class seats. I have said all year that WorkSerfdom would decide the election, by driving a million socially conservative working class voters back to Labor, destroying the coalition that Howard built in 1996. Thanks a lot, H R Nicholls Society, IPA, BCA, etc etc. Great thinking there.

  32. A little birdie just told me that tomorrow’s Galaxy poll shows no significant change. No figures, sorry. So most likely a status quo or within MOE. Time is running out…It is not a good look for desparate Libs to hang on for dear life. It did not work for Keating and it won’t work for Howard.

  33. Oh, and whilst I remain awake, did anyone listen to ABC The Big Idea, George Munster award to Leigh Sales?

    Michael Duffy was second speaker.

    Actually spoke of Howard having let events pass him by! Time for a fresh leader (bit ambiguous, that bit) S’pose he meant C the outrider.

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