Roy Morgan seems to have moved to weekly face-to-face polls, today’s offering being a survey of 955 voters conducted on Saturday and Sunday (so before the early week leadership non-event). It shows a 1 per cent shift in the Coalition’s direction on two-party preferred, with both major parties up on the primary vote: the Coalition from 34.5 per cent to 36 per cent, Labor from 49 per cent to 51 per cent.
bmwofoz Says:
Gilmore is a funny seat, its held by 9.5% is looks safe, would I be right in calling it a rural area, if so it could bolt considering all the attention in SE NSW in on Edan Monaro.
Aristotle Says:
bmwofoz, Gilmore’s coastal regional and was held by the ALP until 1996. It sits on 9.5% only 0.3% less than Kooyong, and that’s blue ribbon. Gilmore is not blue ribbon, maybe more blue rinse.
I sense she may be in trouble, particularly in her campaigning behaviour.
There has been a huge influx of retirees to this electorate over the past 4 to 5 years. Don’t know how this will play out (Libs get the grey vote), but Gilmore contains Nowra (prob the highest unemployment city in Oz).
I think Madame Gash will hold, but for no other reason than she is always campaigning. She’s at EVERY town meeting/fete/sports day etc. Over the years I have emailed her twice over separate issues. No reply to either! But I can understand this – she wouldn’t have time.
Well, if the issues poll on the Australian website has any ounce of accuracy, the Coalition is doomed. With Workplace relations (42%)being so dominant, it will be hard for the Liberals to survive in Government.
Looks like it was just that one issue that was enough to tip the balance back towards Labor. 🙂
bmwofoz
Add Fisher to the list. 🙂
Our fearless leader has now announced that he will serve a full term as Member for Bennelong. I mean really, are the Australian public this stupid….oh dear, after the the last 10 years I fear so.
If the ALP play this right there goes the second week of the parliamentary sittings for Team Limpet Custard.
So just how accurate and popular is betting on politics? With betfair, the total bets matched on the AFL to win the grand final is $995k and on NRL to win the grand final is $1m50k. Note AFL supporters, Rugby League is more popular, hah hah. Geelong 1.73 and Storm 1.95 are the favourites.
On politics $650k is the total bets matched. This provides a strong indication as to how tuned and focused people may be for the election. Glen, Rupert and Freeman, read and weep:
ALP 1.39 / LIB 3.40.
The SMH has some quantative polling in todays edition. It is too long to post the lot but interestingly it supports the Morgan “soft Labor” vote.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/election-mind-games/2007/09/14/1189276983771.html
The focus groups confirm that while the sentiment that Howard’s time is up is widely held, it is also, among these undecided voters, rather weakly held. It is tempered by the regard for Howard.
And if the rejection of Howard is feeble, the embrace of the alternative is tentative.
“I think we’re afraid of change … that’s why we’ve had John Howard for so long,” Maureen says.
“John Howard has done a good job and he’s had the experience, but he’s been there for so long he needs a reality check, and that’s why people are leaning towards Rudd, because he’s young and he’s fresh and he has ideas.”
“Freshness” and “fresh ideas” were commonly cited as reasons for supporting Rudd and his team.
But when the Nielsen moderator pressed the group of young families from Lindsay for further detail, none could immediately identify a specific fresh idea with which the Labor leader or his team could be readily identified.
Gary, after thought, observed that Labor was proposing to restore the old system of industrial relations. In the pollster’s trade, these are called “soft” opinions; they are readily offered, but crumple under questioning.
The Government’s hope is that when an election is called and voters apply themselves to the business of composing a final opinion, Rudd’s impressionistic appeal to the electorate will fade, and be replaced by a harder scepticism.
According to the Australian poll my seat
The Economy = 28%
Workplace = 24%
War in Iraq = 21%
Climate Change = 21%
Education 7%
If we accept that Workplace and the Economy to be the same for they can’t live without the offer then 52% consider it the issue.
While Iraq, Climate Change and Education make up 48% but these issues I suspect will have the biggest impact on the minor parties for the Liberals and the ALP haven really moved on these issues since the last Election.
Suave Qui Peut 385
Lot of truth in that.
Prime Minister John Howard has announced that if he wins the election he will serve a full term in the seat of Bennelong.
JWH
I’ll believe that only when I see it. Hopefully, the question doesn’t even arise (ie he loses both the overall election, and with a bit of luck his seat as well).
Lord D #446 People on this site were just saying how unpopular Peter Beattie was. If that’s a state poll, it certainly doesn’t look like it. The statement was probably made by some Liberal supporters on here, they tend to exaggerate.
Center I think us Conservatives will save the weeping for you on election night.
bmwofoz@449 why so optimistic in QLD? Please tell me as some of these seats are still $5ish on Portlandbet.
Marco. In your dreams. See #460.
Barbara #462 The betting follows the polls. There is a lag.
Barbara,
My picks are based on worst case scenarios, some of those seats don’t have a history of voting for the ALP, I think at present we are doing a fair bit of naval gazing but with polls showing an average of 58-42 something funny is happening which wont become clear until Election night.
well I had better put some more $ on Qld seats, lol, pronto
Call me “Conservative” but I would rather keep my money by some good grog some nibbles then sit back and enjoy what is looking an interesting night.
I’m looking forward to the dummy spits and the excuses about protest votes and the name calling from the losing side.
And of course the Lefties to say sorry for questioning the intellect of the voters for rejecting Latham.
Message to Conservatives: I admire your courage that this election will be for you what it was for Labor in 1993 – ‘unloseable’ for the Opposition.
Good for you. 😉
449
bmwofoz Says:
September 15th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
In Queensland I have as ALP gains
Moreton, Bonner, Bowman, Petrie, Dickson, Ryan, Forde, Herbert, Hinkler, Flynn, Leichart, McPherson, Longman, Wide Bay = 14 seats
BMW I have Moreton, Bonner, Bowman,Petrie, Dickson, Herbert and Hinkler on my list- anything more than 6 or 7 will be decoration prompted by a Ruddslide which I am not yet convinced is in the making.
Yes Chris B, polls provide an indication as to voting intention whereas the betting indicates the probability as to the outcome of the election. The betting must be and is more accurate than the polls because polls are factored in to the betting – not vice versa.
The Queensland Liberal’s are almost broke, they have not been getting any donations since the State elections.
They will be vastly out resourced by the Labor Party. The Libs will try to hold NSW hence very little funds for Qld.
I was being flippant before but 10 seats is highly likely. Longman is a certainty to go.
PS: I have 22 seats on my list as gains for Labor, and only half are in the top 16 marginals Adam so kindly ranks for us {below} based on a conservative national swing of 5.5 percent which will be closer to 10 percent in ‘safe’ Coalition seats which are the one’s Labor are currently doing serious damage in.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/guide3.shtml
Ruddster’s “Unofficial Campaign Launch” got underway this arvo.
*Anytime you’re ready, Team Smirk/Rodent*
Might have to sort a dozen or so seats with candidates first, and perform due diligence on Monday night’s Newspoll. Routine housekeeping for this stage of the game one would have thought. Nothing to be overly concerned about. Just ask Dolly. He and Hef are enforcers.
Wonder what no.3 on the Qld Coalition Senate ticket, The Honourable Ronald Boswell, thinks about THAT ad the Socialists are running about Mr. Howard’s proposed nuclear reactors? Hope they have factored in the cost of “Terrorist- Proofing” them in early estimates. Those ratbags could strike out of the blue any old time at all. The National Interest is not to be trifled with. Voters need to know how their communities will be protected. They are fearful that Mr. Howard has made a hasty and ill-considered decision(or perhaps this was this one of the Teams?)
An early clarification from Ron would help settle the horses because stampedes, like chain reactions have a habit of turning ugly.
I just got back from my local supermarket. Tony Zappia, the mayor of Salisbury, and ALP candidate for Makin was there: http://www.alp.org.au/people/index.php?task=qs&seat=makin
He wasn’t campaigning, just shopping. He must be pretty confident, because my supermarket is in my electorate (Sturt), not in Makin. 😛
I was browsing thru the betting market, & came across this in the CV of one of the candiates
“Currently, Andrew is also Co-Chair of the bipartisan group, Parliamentary Friends of Schizophrenia”
Sounds like he’s having a bit each way on bi polar disorder.
Just watching Sky News, and it said the government has scrapped sending out it’s Climate Clever booklet in favour or telling people to go to a website. Please tell me they hadn’t printed booklets and they now have to be pulped. Still, $22m is a lot for and advertising campaign.
Just saw Kevin on Ten news with a new slogan. “New Leadership” coverage was pretty good. Along with the coverage of the Magpies.
A very good source in WA advises me that the ALP is now very confident of holding Swan and Cowan, and very confident of winning Stirling and Hasluck. They think Canning is now on a knife-edge (which represents a 9.5% swing). They do not expect to win Kalgoorlie.
Adam am I right in thinking your from Melbourne Ports if so what was the feedback from the voters at today’s by-election considering Melbourne Ports is simular in some ways to Goldstein, Higgins and Kooyong.
Team Smirking Rodent need …. actually nothing they do can help unless they start inventing things, get one of the arch forgers out of jail to fake some dirt on Rudd maybe then use parliamentary privilidge. Maybe they will use the last day of Parliament to do this then call the election. They will say sorry got it wrong after the election. ONLY problem is Mickey Mouse could take over and Labor would still win – the people seem to want change, and Mickey Mouse is a kinder Rodent.
I was told the other day by an ALP member that they don’t expect to win Dunkley, they hope for a large swing but Billson is a very popular local MP.
That’s interesting – the Latham Effect is completely washing out of the WA seats which was where it hit strongest, as well as adding a fair swing on top.
Let’s hope that story gets around to spare us all more delusional fantasies about WA looking good for the Coalition.
My swingometer, stuck to the wall in front of me now, tells me the highest ever ALP TPP in Qld was 50.7% in 1961. So talk of 59/41 is a tad bizarre. But it does seem likely that there is something remarkable going on and that old record will fall.
Bluebottle 469 you list as a gain Bowman, but leave out the more marginal Blair and Longman. Is Cameron Thompson well loved in Blair? I think Bowman got pushed further into Lib safe territory with a redistribution…
Maybe I need an updatwed view of Queensland but when I looked at Blair I though no its rural and west of Brisbane and that area is very strong for the Liberals, but with the polls as they are who knows!
Bowman’s got a signature all over it? 🙂 It will be a Labor gain.
“Crispy Says:
September 15th, 2007 at 5:34 pm
My swingometer, stuck to the wall in front of me now,”
Sounds painful, Crispy. Bit of araldite remover might do the trick. If it works, send some to Peter Costello, he could sure use it.
My ‘impressively large swingometer’, I hasten to add.
And it’s actually thumbtacked. Ouch.
bmwofozm, I did a turn on the HTVs in St Kilda this morning. There were a few angry Greenies after our successful sting on their silly selective schools policy, but since the Libs squibbed the fight the by-elections really have no federal relevance. The recent federal shenanigans mean that the by-elections have had very little coverage, so the Greens have got no traction.
IMHO the Greens blew their chance of winning Albert Park by picking a “typical” candidate (geeky-looking male with beard) instead of finding a star candidate, and then being baited by Labor into arguing about Labor’s allegations rather than promoting their own winning issues (bay dredging, Grand Prix). They should stick to what they are good at – why does a greens party need a selective schools policy at all?
I don’t think there is any anti-state-Labor sentiment in Victoria, so I don’t see any prospect of a big swing. Most Liberals will either stay home or vote DLP or FF, with preferences to Labor ahead of Greens.
Of course, I may be totally wrong. We will see in an hour or two. William, are we getting a by-elections results thread?
Kevin Rudds launched his election campaign. The official slogan is “New Leadership” loads of coverage on Nine News. What a contrast to tired old Johns clips. I’d say Kevins stolen the march on the Liberals. Putting them firmly on the back foot.
Predictions for Queensland from a New Southwelshman.
LABOR GAINS:
Bonner
Moreton
Blair
Ryan
Longman
Potential gains if the council amalgamation thing doesn’t bite:
Flynn
Petrie
Leichardt
I’ve had a day in the garden (okay, it could be argued that the sun got to me) but I think the Howard strategy is all about going out with a bang.
As in, “if I go, I’m taking all youse with me.”
My tip: The polls will be proved right, and accurate. But when the results come in as predicted all the experts will be astounded.
And I forgot to say I think Labor can win Bowman too, because of Andrew Lamming’s current troubles with Printgate.
I think some of that focus group stuff today in Fairfax was rather sobering. With the polls as they are, and the government falling apart, it’s been easy for those of us hoping for a Labor victory to think that the election is already won. We would do well to remember that the election will in the end be decided by those who don’t take any interest in politics, and who will largely vote on “the vibe”. There’s still some residual effection out there for JWH (God knows why), and Kevin Rudd still has a ways to go before he gets to the Lodge. It would be quite extraordinary for Howard to win from here, but it’s not impossible.
You’d think for the Libs to win, everything would have to right for them, and enough would have to go wrong for Labor. Given the performances of the the respective leaders (and others) over the last few months (and especially over the last couple of weeks), it’s hard to see that happening. Rudd looks to be playing a much shrewder hand than Howard, and that might be the difference. It would be a fitting end to the Howard era for him to go out outsmarted by a younger version of himself (and make no mistake – I think we may be seeing the birth of a substantial political figure in Rudd).
Aristotle @ 433.
You mention Joanna Gash not mentioning the libs and John Howard in her advertising.
ALP candidates in regional seats have been doing this for years. Jim Snow the former ALP member for Eden Monaro did that a few times, If I recall correctly,at least once all his campaign material was a different colour.
Its an old trick.
Got this on the ALP e-news list (Yes, I am an ALP Member)
[Federal Labor today (September 15 at 10.45am) launched its official 2007 election slogan.
“New Leadership†was unveiled at the Dame Joan Sutherland Performing Arts Centre in Penrith.
Federal Labor Leader, Mr Kevin Rudd was the keynote speaker at the community gathering.
Mr Rudd outlined his vision for Australia’s future:
• Education revolution;
• National plan to fix our hospitals;
• Decisive action on climate change;
• Balance and fairness in the workplace;
• Maintaining our national security; and
• A strong economy that delivers for working families.
To read more, visit: http://www.alp.org.au/media/0907/msloo150.php ]
Beat that Johnny 🙂
from the mobile- when is the galaxy due?
Galaxy due Monday 24 Sept. Newspoll on Tuesday (or Monday night for the politics tragics who watch the start of Lateline for a prelude).
This has probably been said already, but ho hum:
If we connect some dots between the following:
1) Howard recasts the government as a “team” in order to widen attention on his ministers rather than having it rest purely on himself
2) Howard later suggests that the government is “nothing without him” and effectively implies that he is doing well but the team overall is not
3) Possum Comitatus’ analysis of the Crosby/Textor polling pointed to the idea that Howard probably already knows that he has lost and is therefore putting in place a defensive “firewall” strategy to try to minimise the damage in terms of number of seats lost
4) Howard has always had a tendency to never accept responsibility for anything bad that happens
…then, it is quite possible that Howard is not just being a dithering old fool, but cunningly planning to make sure that his party goes down with him. With an eye on his legacy, he is perhaps trying to set up a situation where blame is not wholly levelled at him but also at Costello and the rest of his “team”. It is ultimately destructive stuff, because it could mean that a future coalition opposition is heavily tainted with the incompetent, mean, and tricky brush for years to come rather than Howard fully absorbing the political fallout.
Of course, Howard is in fact a dithering old fool, and possibly starting to go senile, because history will probably make a special effort to single him out anyway, just as it usually does on all the leaders of previous governments. But there is something very nasty in the way that Howard is trying to spread the responsibility and blame for a future defeat, especially if it is a big defeat, which probably forms much of the background for his recent comments about him doing well in voters minds but the rest of his party not being up to scratch.
If Howard believes he will lose (and it is possible that he still thinks there is some chance of pulling off a win, and he will certainly pork-barrel like there is no tomorrow in order to try to get there), it is very likely that Howard wants to take the whole ship down with him, just to make sure that fewer fingers point towards him when all the recriminations start.
If this is the case, Howard really is a very selfish egomaniac, who lacks proper human decency… but of course we knew that anyway 🙂