Movement at the station

I have just awoken to a barrage of “Turnbull and Downer deny calling for PM to quit” headlines, capped by Andrew Bolt‘s sensational assertion that Peter Costello will be Prime Minister tomorrow. No time to absorb any of this, but a new thread is clearly in order.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

647 comments on “Movement at the station”

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  1. Possum: I said in the ‘Peter Out’ thread that Labor has been trying to do policy announcements in the last 2 days. They need to cool off, regroup and go in for the kill when the time is right. Not getting media attention on these positive policies isn’t going to do them any good, better to let the air clear. Also talking about the Libs leadership spills could look like hubris, Rudd just needs to say ‘They need to sort it out for the better of the country’ and not comment on anything else.

  2. I sure hope the rodent’s not for changing (to paraphrase Maggie T); i wish to see him utterly humiliated by losing his seat and having his party reduced to a parliamentary rump.

  4. Perhaps the best strategy is to ask no questions at all.

    Alternatively just one..”Ïn view of Mr Beattie’s graceful resignation, does the PM intend to proceed with the Council amalgamation referendum?”

  5. Michael (44) is right. You can pull back some of a 57-43 split, certainly not enough to win a majority, but to a respectablish 54-46 (maybe) but you can’t pull back 59-41 and save nearly enough face. At this rate, there’s enough defeat looming to keep the ALP in office for eleven years. We’re talking about a realigning election.

    Howard’s big mistake will be waiting too long. Because soon the stories will be about things like “Julia Gillard: Australia’s first female Deputy Prime Minister – isn’t that just neat?”, and “what will Labour’s first 100 days in office look like?”. It’s when stuff like this is cemented in peoples’ minds that the fan gets stinky. And if nothing else, John, if you’re there are reading this; the press are bored. And any old thing is going to be a story.

  6. Gecko, the party forms a government with a leader elected from the caucus. This may be undone at anytime during the election cycle by a simple vote of no confidence (cue Iron Bar Tuckey) at an official caucus meeting. There happens to be one such meeting tonight by the way.

    From there the party disendorses the leadership of Howard and elects a new leader. That leader forms the head of the elected government. The GG is informed and passes the leader into the status of PM at which time he is sworn in.

    Thats my understanding of how these things go. There is no law suggesting Howard must be removed, rather that he is disendorsed from the party. The GG will then deny any motions to dissolve parliament if he is not endorsed.

  7. Or maybe a policy question like:

    “Considering the harm that gambling does to Australian families every year, how can the Prime Minister justify encouraging thousands of families across the country to take a punt on the election betting markets as a result of his inability to control his own party. For the sake of Australian families that are impacted every day by problem gambling – can the Prime Minister get his act together?” 😉

  8. I know this is pushing it and was talked about yesterday, but a vote of no confidence or a censure motion of the PM that would test the parties numbers could be interesting. Since it would force the Libs to publicly back the PM, or dump him. Of course it would go down to party lines, but any speculation after that would just show it was a hollow vote. I’m just dreaming, I think I will just wait for the blood to flow tonight or tomorrow

  10. what a fitting end for someone nicknamed “the rodent”, cornered in his hole in parliament house by both sides of politics, stamping his foot and demanding obedience. He’s such a Billy Hughes character, small, angry and defiant.

  11. Like Mr Swing Lowe, I have been following the bookies. What amazes me is how the bookies have so many seats still safely in the Liberal camp. If what I am hearing about the polling in SA, how is Southcott so far ahead in Boothby (even allowing for the Barbie-Doll factor)? Same goes for Sturt (even though I reckon Pyne will hang on). Also stacks of other seats like Wentworth, Longman, Dutton’s seat in Brisbane and Page. I also reckon Howard will go down with ship in light of what has occurred the last few days. That is why there is something to be said for him resigning now.

    The way things are going, I will be pleased if we get out of this train wreck with 60 seats.

  12. [Possum. Can you please tell me the legality of Howard’s position within the party rules. Can he remain leader if that is his wish?]

    Look what he said today at the press conference I’ve ‘never run from a fight before and I don’t intend to do so now’.

    He is publically saying to Turnbull / Downer “If you want me to go you are going to have to challenge me, I won’t resign on my own accord.”

    In other words, if the challenge happens, and if it succeeds or fails is irrelevant, Howard simply wants to be able to blame someone else for bringing the government down, he isn’t going to help them out.

  13. 46
    Will Says:
    September 11th, 2007 at 1:12 pm ….Rudd just needs to say ‘They need to sort it out for the better of the country’ and not comment on anything else.

    48
    Possum Comitatus Says:
    September 11th, 2007 at 1:13 pm ….I’m with you Will

    I’m not so sure. I think there is a lot to be said with sticking to your game…getting the policy out, being seen to be running your own race…..while the libs writhe in agony elsewhere…

    As I’ve remarked before, the main role of the political parties these days is to serve as standing electoral colleges – to recruit, protect, promote, elect and support leaders – and if necessary, remove them. The Liberals have to exercise this function now, or the public will remove them instead.

    I cannot think of a more compelling situation than the current one: a fatally flawed leader and an election to fight: we will see what the Liberals are made of….

  15. Hi All!

    Been a big fan of this blog for awhile and here is my first post.Howard will fight to the death to stay as PM. He is addicted to power as a junkie to smack. The question arises does he have the numbers? I don’t know but it is interesting that the current poll in the Oz (on who should led the libs to the election) has Howard (33%) just nosing in front of Drovers Dog (32%) followed by Costello (19%) and Turnbull (12%).

    I think that the rodent will just hang on unless Peter Beattie lends Rusty to the libs.:) Can’t see Yello Costello with his sultana balls getting more votes in the electorate than the rodent.

  16. Waiting for question time to start, the house of reps media stream is playing “ride of the valkyries”.

    From wikipedia: “In the opera-house, the Ride, which takes around eight minutes, begins in the prelude to the Act, building up successive layers of accompaniment until the curtain rises to reveal a mountain peak where four of the eight Valkyrie sisters of Brünnhilde have gathered in preparation for the transportation of fallen heroes to Valhalla. As they are joined by the other four, the familiar tune is carried by the orchestra, while, above it, the Valkyries greet each other and sing their battle-cry.”

  17. Mike F, 54-46 is not “respectable” – that is a rout and would be the Tories’ worst result since at least 1946, and perhaps earlier

  18. Possum (52) – Touche 😉 … you are good 🙂 ….

    Sky News which I have on in the background says that they are cutting momentarily to the “official lunch” for the Canadian Prime Minister. If there is a lunch going on now, and QT is supposed to be from 2 to 3 and the Canadian PM hasn’t yet addresses Parliament I don’t think – won’t QT be just shuffled off of the schedule today?

  19. The term to use for Costello, Downer and Turnbull is ‘gutless wonders’. Step up to the crease, swing your bat, and if you miss go back to the dressing room with your golden duck.

    The electorate has lost respect for Costello with his ‘I was promised the position’, he shows no leadership, zip! Downer and Turnbull allow the rumour to start and hope Howard would put his neck on the line and they can ‘deny deny deny’.

    How many times has Howard really been tapped on the shoulder, for him to say ‘show me the numbers and I will stand down’? That would be interesting to know.

  22. What indeed, Gecko? I’m waiting for something massive and unscrupulous from Howard, attempting to change the media narrative. A 9-11 anniversary terrorist plot uncovered and foiled? Sudden lockdown of airports and ports for unspecified reasons? Stay tuned…

  23. [Canadian PM hasn’t yet addresses Parliament I don’t think ]

    He has already made his speech, it started at around 10:30.

    What I worry about is this. This terrible leadership speculation will probably feed into Newspoll, say it is unchanged at 59 / 41, then that will just provide more support for the Dolly-Turnbull faction to tip Howard out.

    I wanted him to get voted out 🙁

  24. It might be time for the PM’s Department to release copies of that grainy old photo of Rudd having lunch with Osama. Can’t think of anything else that might do the trick.

  26. Simon (65),

    “I wanted him to get voted out”

    In the final analysis, no one will worry about how the result happens just that he is bloody gone already

  27. just remember howard has form re distractions

    what better distraction than a faux challenge followed by the “the man of steal’ standing firm and leaderlike

    takes all oxygen out of bad series of polls and rudds ascendancy

    also shifts agenda back to leadership

  28. Re (62)

    ruawake Says:
    September 11th, 2007 at 1:35 pm
    QT is at 2.30 today

    Crap 🙁 ……… have to pick up the kids at school today, I am going to look for a portable radio that carries the AM band so I can get ABC coverage while out of the house

  29. 53
    Will Says:
    September 11th, 2007 at 1:22 pm ……I know this is pushing it and was talked about yesterday, but a vote of no confidence or a censure motion of the PM that would test the parties numbers could be interesting. Since it would force the Libs to publicly back the PM, or dump him. Of course it would go down to party lines, but any speculation after that would just show it was a hollow vote. I’m just dreaming, I think I will just wait for the blood to flow tonight or tomorrow
    …

    Will…..it would be a great idea if some libs could be counted on to defect…..but they won’t….this matter has to be settled in the party room by the Libs themselves. Rudd should stay as far away as possible from the turmoil and keep offering his own story….fresh ideas, strong, unified and stable leadership, letting the people have their say….

    Howard, by declining to call an election and defying his Liberal challengers, is making things much much worse for himself and his party. He is more or less declaring to the world that they are unelectable and inviting his fraternal execution. What an ego! It is too late for him now….

  30. blindoptimist: Problem is, is that Rudd had released 2 policies yesterday, one being funding a road in Eden-Monaro, and the other is increasing the war veterans pension. Labor had a round table with the manufacturing industry yesterday about Labor’s plan to increase productivity. Most people would not have even seen it as it got swamped with post APEC stuff, Beattie resigning and the whole leadership speculation. A day or two break won’t be much and Rudd and Labor will get more media attention than they need.

  31. I think everyone should take a deep breath. As Paul Keating said a few weeks ago, JWH is “araldited” to the seat. You either put the sword through him or the electorate will put one through the lot of them. Senior government figures are plainly bewildered. I reckon they can’t really believe it is happening. They won’t push Howard. It is not so long ago that seasoned Howard supporters were fixed in the view that “Howard does nothing without a reason”. Blind faith and toadying were and remain the order of the day He seemed impregnable and, to them, we never had it so good. You see, these guys didn’t read the census figure that put the median wage for all employees at $480 per week and understand what it means. Their constituents are the guys who managed to speculate on $0.02 and $0.03 uranium stocks in May to gain windfalls of several hundred percent when the Government’s uranium mining expansion announcement was made. Contemptable – the lot of them. But be careful what you wish for. Remember the old Who song “meet the new boss…”

  33. The Hon the Leader of the Opposition:

    PM, given that more than three years of your Government will have passed, before the 2007 election, will you immediately act in the national interest to give Australians the choice between the Liberal Party and the Australian Labor Party thereby ending the unhelpful speculation and confusion by calling on Her Majesty’s representative the Governer General of Australia to dissolve Parliament and issue writs for an election ….

  34. What sort of political party is it when a figure of public merriment like Dolly can be a senior figure with real authority? Dolly Downer… King Maker!

  35. hey Chris from Edgecliff (59): you’re right.

    As is, I’m seeing the wilderness years for the Libs ala the UK tories and the NZ National Party, who after being toppled in 97 and 99 respectively are still stuck on the opposition benches, and in both cases are still running the risk of being beaten again at their next elections.

    54-46 is a lot easier to recover from; it can be 51-49 in three years, if you’re clever. 57-43 means that John Howrd will probably not live to see the next Liberal PM.

  36. Some posts above beat me, my thinking is this stuff is either about liberal ‘post election loss’ positioning or is just trying to buy more time. Mr Rudd should just make the point that given an election is due, it is silly and unhelpful for the nation to be distracted by internal Liberal fighting, the nation should be focusing on the choice between Liberal and Labor.

    Any questions after that back to policy and govt failures.

  38. People here believe what they want to believe, and their speculation now is over the top. Today will be a big fizzer for the Howard haters.

  40. Possum (72 ),

    “How very practical of you Julie ”

    It has already paid off, Piers Ackerman was just on in an interview trying to hold the party line. More or less told the reporter that Bolt and Milne didn’t know what they were talking about. Is he that stuck into the mud that he can’t see the handwriting on the wall?

  41. Re (78)

    Rupert Says:
    September 11th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
    People here believe what they want to believe, and their speculation now is over the top. Today will be a big fizzer for the Howard haters.

    ONLY because the Libs party meeting isn’t happening until tomorrow. Don’t think I would expect any move prior to that point.

  43. This leadership speculation is wonderful! This will last until at least Thursday! Meanwhile, no one is at the wheel of the nation.

    [have to pick up the kids at school today, I am going to look for a portable radio that carries the AM band so I can get ABC coverage while out of the house]

    Thsi would be a good investment for the election campaign, just keep it locked on NewsRadio: http://abc.net.au/newsradio/

  45. Will (71)… yes…though someone must have noticed the releases.

    On the other hand, this turmoil in the Liberal ranks could go on for quite a long time: with the notable exception of Wilson Tuckey, the Liberals dont seem to have the ticker needed to defy Howard, so this could just descend into a comic melee….

    If I was Rudd, I’d be doing what he’s already doing….staying on schedule, staying busy and demanding an election..

  47. Rupert why are you even here?

    I’d say “Howard haters” (lame name by the way) are torn on this one. They want to see him embarassed by being unceremoniously dumped… but aren’t sure whether by his people would be more satisfying than by the public.

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