I have just awoken to a barrage of “Turnbull and Downer deny calling for PM to quit” headlines, capped by Andrew Bolt‘s sensational assertion that Peter Costello will be Prime Minister tomorrow. No time to absorb any of this, but a new thread is clearly in order.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Marktwain @ 490
Do these people know you consider them bellwethers? Not sure I’d be entirely flattered 🙂
It is a good point though. Howard is clearly on the nose with the bloggers and other enlightened souls but he has an approval rating higher than his party’s 2pp.
This is a stat I’ve need quite understood. But maybe is just simple the whole govt is going under and Howard is the most popular thing about it. It makes no sense to me but I’m just a single vote.
gecko….interesting concept you’re putting forward.
watching politicians of the liberal persuasion doesn’t do much to lift my opinion of humanity….it is very grubby stuff – deceit, pride, revenge, cowardice, malice…and endlessly self-satisfied too, in the case of his excellency the foreign minister.
Will Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 11:28 pm
[ No he would not. He could do what Australian cricketer Damien Martyn did – resign by email. ]
He could do a Damien O’Connor (NZ Corrections Minister), and try to resign by text message.
Can’t you imagine, driving by Lake Burley Griffen, typeing his text message, & he accidently runs over some old codger who’s energetically walking around the Lake
I’d give Howard the benefit of the doubt and say that he genuinely believes that switching leaders this close to an election would not be in the best interests of the party (and yes I know that this does coincide with his own self interest).
Can’t see how this will be resolved tomorrow as it’s my understanding that while there is a joint party room meeting tomorrow, there is no separate Liberal party room meeting. Therefore, as I said earlier, next Tuesday (Newspoll day and the Liberal Party room meeting day) will be the end game to all of this.
Simon #498, I’ll report back tomorrow with the results of my planned interrogation of my bellwethers, but I have a suspicion that the traditional Labor lady would go Rudd and the traditional Lib bloke would go Costello or the donkey (is there a difference?) Either way, it’s still movement of the Howard battlers back into the Labor fold, and considering my male colleague is from Mitchell and therefore not important, the difference would be enough for a good Labor sweep in the marginals.
Having spent a while reflecting on the issue, as a Liberal supporter, I have finished the day somewhat depressed, when it started so promisingly. Not that I’ve been overly happy with the party for some time now, but you catch my drift.
I spoke to a chap this morning, who is an actual member of the Liberal Party, and has sources here and there (like everybody else does today!) He said from what he had heard, as of tomorrow either Howard would resign, or there would be a leadership challenge. This was, however, before JH spent the day digging his heels in, and besides, Bolt was saying similar stuff this morning.
The semantics of today has (in my view) confirmed what I have been muttering for the past week or two: the only chance the Coalition has this election – and it is now even slimmer then it was 24 hours ago – is for JH to have a change of heart over the next 12 hours, and resign from parliament, effective immediately. This appears unlikely, courtesy of Downers waffling tonight.
I think in the end, there were two winners today. The first is obviously Labor, who you can bet tonight will be fast forwarding preparations for some solid, populist policy, ready to announce to the public tomorrow afternoon, just after Costello announces (under threat of death) that he is locking in behind Howard. It is what Rudd does best – look ‘prime-ministerial.’
And the second winner is the media, who – after 11 years – finally managed to get past Howard’s armour today and give a few sold prods. And it turns out that in the end, he is just like any other politician. Nobody is invincible, nobody irreplaceable. For once, the media wasn’t late in arriving – the cabinet was left floundering, leaks spouted everywhere, and Matt Price had a field day. And the libs kept digging their hole. Gah.
(isn’t that much more enlightening then talking about bloody train wrecks and rails and so forth? You people need better metaphors)
#496 Kina – let’s be honest here. Labor was just as bad when disposing of their leaders over the past decade, one by one. Think back to barely a year ago, they were in a mess. Even worse two years ago. I recall many Labor members consistently making public comments attacking one leadership candidate or another, generally in a nice, snide tone. Taking Beazley down was a good six-twelve month consolidated effort I imagine.
They’re all the same in the end.
Gippslander
He could do that, but then he would have to explain why he put the car in reverse and repeated the manevuer a few more times.
new article on the australian just went up
majority of cabinet members believed costello was the better horse to back for leadership
Ever since Costello launched that over the top attack on Rudd over meeting Burke, I have thought that Costello has tried to damage Howard at every opportunity.I think Costello has long given up on the leadership and has settled for screwing Howard even if he brings the house down.He certainly knows that the leadership now, is not worth a pinch of nanny goat shit, pay back is a bitch! Howard humiliated him too many times,this is Costello`s last chance for payback. IMHO.
Max (505) – Hell, remember what the Liberals were like for most of the 80s and the first half of the 90s. Brutal leadership battles aren’t the exclusive domain of either side.
I’m not convinced the personal popularity number that Abbott &c are trotting out means much of anything. A couple of months back wasn’t it the preferred PM number that was all-important (apparently). Rudd gets ahead of Howard there, and suddenly it’s the personal popularity number that’s all important.
Max,
Yeah I feel for you mate. I’m a Liberal supporter too yet it only took me about 24 hours (22 of those despairing over the Newspoll!) to work out that the only team that can win this thing for the Libs is Howard and Costello. Neither of them can win on their own – and even together they probably only have a 30% chance. I simply cannot believe that Liberal MPs and Ministers cannot work that out in a similarly short space of time.
Albert F, my bellwethers wouldn’t know a ewe from a ram even if they were eating it, but they are very interesting people nonetheless. I do think we all get a bit carried away by what Tony or Kerry or the stormtroopers from the Government Gazette have to say for themselves. My friends wouldn’t watch the ABC or read anything but the Terror if you paid them, and yet they have reasonably strong opinions on certain things and dislike being sneered at by chardonnay sippers such as myself. I still remember working in a restaurant in Brisbane in 1996 and hearing the Italian-born kitchenhand, who had voted Labor for 30 years, saying it was time for a change. Once she said that – and she was the mother of two newly registered voters – I knew Keating was sunk. I get the same feeling this time.
People wondering about the 50% popularity for howard, it just means they like Howard, but they like Rudd more.
what is a neutered girl sheep called?
Not sure that this piece is what Price was talking about on Lateline – he said it was going to be by Paul Kelly. There’s some interesting meat in there. For instance, the cabinet (with the exception of Howard and Costello) had a meetup last week to talk things over. And coalition MPs are blaming Turnbull for the leaks.
If this is the explosive details promised, then *yawn*. Ok, whatever. Nothing much here, imho. Howard will easily see off Costello. The only question for me is whether Costello will suck it down and come out smiling and supporting Howard after the meeting. Maybe he can trade his support for a dinner at Kirribilli.
Adam, why would you neuter a girl?
i have no idea – my knowledge of agricultural practices is fairly limited.
Marktwain Says:
September 12th, 2007 at 12:17 am
Adam, why would you neuter a girl?
I can see you don’t have a female dog (I don’t say Bitch out of deference to Bronwyn Bishop)
Maybe the issue was Howard at the begining and all his baggage but then Rudd started winning all the issues which, he has in spades. Maybe Howard has less to do with it now.
People are happy they have found themselves a competent viable alternative and have over the past 8 months become welded on. They are now Rudd/Labor supporters and the Govt has to ‘win’ them back not just change leaders.
A Costello govt is a new govt, newer than the Rudd alternative. They have to start from scratch, produce policies that compete and give a good reason for people to change back. That is going to be hard without their number one salesman.
Changing leaders may just lose those that were hanging on because of Howard. AND lose those that hate Costello. To balance this they hope to win back a heap of those not yet welded on to Rudd. But looking at Labor’s primary for 8 months doesn’t produce much hope in that quarter. AND to be frank Rudd has performed superbly this past 8 months, for a brand new leader!
Some commentators have intimated this scenario has been festering as a probable reality for some months.
If Victoria’s ‘old libs’ were aware of an impending coup then… you’ve got to assume Costello was asked when it was muted, or what would be the point?
Given Howard has had until the eleventh hour to show improvement in the polls… I just can’t see why the Liberals would not give their only gun parliamentary performer a shot at saving them from electoral oblivion. There really doesn’t seem to be any other choice.
Rudd himself has stepped up criticism of Costello’s reformist credentials in what may be a clue to how the ALP see things turning out.
Downer in an interview during APEC said if he wasn’t Foreign Minister he would like to be Treasurer if the chance arose. (What the?) Why even go there… if Costello is ensconced?
I don’t know whether I’m trying to convince myself or if the reality is staring us in the face.
Mr Squiggle; Is this the article that you mentioned. If so, not bad.
ALEXANDER Downer told John Howard last Friday that a majority of cabinet ministers believed the Government’s best election prospects were for a leadership transition to Peter Costello.
In reply, Howard told Downer that he would not be quitting. He said he would not be resigning the prime ministership before the election. It was a firm and visceral reaction, an act of assertion and a calculation by Howard that the Liberal Party lacked the guts or fortitude to depose him. Howard will have to be dynamited out of the job.
Downer’s report to Howard came at the instigation of the Prime Minister. It is a critical point of the story. After the bad Newspoll early last week, Howard asked Downer to sound out cabinet sentiment on his leadership. Downer spoke to cabinet ministers and reported to Howard in Sydney on Friday before the APEC leaders meeting.
It seems Howard was surprised at Downer’s report. While different versions of Downer’s soundings are sure to be spread, the majority sentiment was for a change. One cabinet minister reported yesterday that the sentiment was “overwhelmingly” for change. Another said the mood was for change by a distinct majority. The word from another, on Howard’s side, was that a variety of views were expressed and sentiment was equivocal.
But Howard was never intimidated. Just the reverse. A veteran of power contests, he is prepared to bet his own “will to power” against anybody else in the party. This process has been playing out over the past five days and Howard seems to be winning.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22402810-12250,00.html
Mr Gipps@516, livestock is a far different proposition to companion animals. You’re not supposed to eat the latter, as far as I’m aware.
I think I should clarify what I said before. My male bellwether would seriously consider Costello or a donkey vote, but I have a sneaking suspicion he might go the Ruddster. His wife’s a teacher (albeit private school) for one thing, but I think the bandwagon might be the biggest temptation this time if Howard is out of the game. Next time he would probably revert, but he’d be fifty-fifty this time. Certainly it’s not scientific data that I’m presenting, but as any pollie knows, gut instinct is a goer.
If one thing is for sure, neither of my two bellwethers look at their local candidates. It’s presidential all the way.
I think we need to remember thagt Howard’s supposed electoral invincibility heretofore is largely a myth. Elected with a huge majority in 1996, he came within an inch of defeat in 1998 when he got less than 50% of the 2PV as his “mandate” for the GST. In 2001 he was headed for certain defeat until saved by 9/11 and Tampa. In 2004 he had the good fortune of L*th*m, but still got only 52.5% of the 2PV. For a PM presiding over a boom economy, this was a mediocre record at best. WorkChoices was electoral poison from Day 1, and even when Beazley was there, Howard was trailing. As soon as Rudd appeared, the punters said, “at last, we can get rid of Howard with confidence that nothing too alarming will follow,” and nothing he has done since December has changed that. This is of course exactly the same thing that happened in reverse when Howard replaced Downer in 1995, so he shouldn’t be too surprised.
Grattan:
Mr Howard ordered a regular separate meeting of the Liberal Party to be held this morning after media and MPs expressed surprise when only a Coalition meeting was planned.
The Liberal meeting gives the chance for anyone to move for a leadership spill, provided they get a seconder. But backbencher Wilson Tuckey, an outspoken critic of Mr Howard, said last night he would not do so.
That Will Hutt was some piece http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Harold_Hutt – he even tried to make out that Apartheid was a trade union plot.
What was surprising was the number of ministers who refused to say if they supported Howard when interviewed on TV, slight panic may be setting in.
As to when the election will be called, there will be quite a few upset people in Sydney, the equine flu claims more.
“Sydney’s popular Melbourne Cup meeting at Royal Randwick has effectively been cancelled due to the equine influenza outbreak, Racing NSW chief executive Peter V’Landys says.
The annual meeting usually attracts 50,000 racegoers who spend millions of dollars at the traditional Cup day knees-up.”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/randwicks-melbourne-cup-day-off/2007/09/11/1189276709157.html
And it looks like we will have a second rate Melbourne Cup day meet, IF it does go ahead at all.
“The majority of NSW and Queensland trainers have given up all hope of participating in this year’s Melbourne spring carnival with only a handful paying up for the feature races.”
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=417641
May influence election timing, but as others have pointed out each weekend is starting to have its own negatatives now.
“His critics were accusing him [Turnbull] of hoping Mr Costello would take the leadership, lose the election and leave him to contest a subsequent ballot.”
I suspect Turnbulll’s name is going to be mud for a while but good to see he has learnt how to be a polly.
I’m waiting to see how Costello responds to all this. He hasn’t seemed an enthusiastic campaigner so far this year. Maybe a few nasty barbs closer to election day just ensure Howard gets trashed and he moves off to mcbank.
The white South African unions were indeed strong supporters of apartheid. The South African Labour Party’s slogan was “workers of the world unite for a white South Africa.” Many of them were of course transplanted Australians who went to the Rand gold rushes, and took White Australia with them.
My favourite piece of political dialogue at the moment:
Source: Peter Hartcher, SMH 12/9/07
495
Arbie Jay
I suspect there has always been a little tension between John Howard’s goals and the rest of the Liberal Party.
My, perhaps unfair, view of John Howard’s agenda is to do everything Malcolm Fraser wouldn’t let him:
* Refugee Rights: wriggle out of
* Progressive Taxation: considerably flattened
* Federalism: whacked about a bit
* Unions: de-legitimised (Malcolm understood they had a role in liberal democracy even though they annoyed him)
* Indigenous Land Rights: whittled away at
* Corporate Accountability: Oh well, bottom of the harbour bobbed up and the AWB didn’t stay under the carpet, so there’s still work to do.
* Militarism: Its a fun duty rather than a regrettable necessity
So that leaves John Howard’s subconscious remaining agenda as:
* Create more loopholes for corporate taxation
* Finish off disenfranchising Aboriginals by subterfuge
* Get rid of fairness tests and such, once re-elected (non-core)
* Actually make unions illegal as a restrictive trade practice
* Suck up state’s water and land, education and health responsibilities
* Increase GST and reduce highest marginal tax rate
* Make all of Australia a migration exclusion zone.
* Stay in Iraq once everyone else has left.
* Find a racist pariah nation to trade with or else become one
* Celebrate as Prime Minister when Malcolm Fraser dies and dance on his grave.
No wonder he appears to be running out of puff and imagination.
Spinning those goals as “looking after the nations interests” gets harder and harder.
Hmmm, after that rant I realise I’ve never really warmed to the man!
I’d have found it easier if he retired to a Bungalow at 55 sipping tea. Eccentric lovable codger with wacky ideas… OK, but PM?
They are better off finishing Howard off. Like Michelle Grattan suggests Howard has been “winged” and the best thing that can be done now is to put him out of his misery. How the government could ever let it get to this is beyond me. The whole episode highlights why Howard has been able to run rings around these jokers for years. They couldn’t even get his political execution right in the end.
May of course all be stage managed to show that Howard is a strong leader and it will all be resolved with libs firmly behind Howard.
Focuses attention back on the libs which Crosby Textor said needs to be done, then they can start releasing policies, modifying Work Choices and present themselves as a new invigorated government with a vision and plan for the future.
The SMH story sounds better, only because it’s painting JWH has the leader to dampen the damage. JWH won’t win them the election, but neither would Costello. JWH is stubborn and won’t move, Costello is gutless so we have an impasse, that will only be solved by going to the election and perhaps hope the a miracle they somehow hold on to power. Matt Price sounded like he has something juicy, and in the end the GG didn’t provide much.
The Liberal backbench must be just about ready to lynch Costello by now. Next week’s partyroom meeting could get very ugly.
[JWH won’t win them the election, but neither would Costello.]
If they think they are going to lose, then sticking with Howard is probably a good decision.
If they are actually pursuing a firewall strategy as Possum suggests, then Howard is probably the leader to aid that strategy.
Here I was hoping that Costello would become leader resulting a landslide so big that the Left faction of the ALP became the opposition. 😛
RB, they could “focus attention” on themselves by comitting mass hara-kiri on the steps of Parly House, but I doubt it would do them much good. Come to think of it, that’s just about what they did today. And they have another whole week and a half of this before they can escape back to their electorates!
comitting? committing? commiting? yikes
Disaster
A lot of Howard’s agenda is below the surface.
Work Choices already allows the banning of unions in workplaces where requested, the Exclusive Brethren obtained this dispensation from Howard to not allow unions into the workplace in their businesses. A workplace does not have to accept a collective agreement if the employer does not want one.
As for militarism, Work Choices, housing affordability and Howards $100,000 plus university degrees are a type of economic conscription that operates in the USA where the young are pushed into the armed services as the only way of getting a better life.
Bottom of the harbour tax schemes flourished under Howard when he was treasurer in Frasers government but his welfare for the rich outdoes that. His massive tax subsidies to investors place home ownership out of reach of the ordinary home owner but not investors. His changes to super means people with an income of $200,000 a year can claim the health benefits card.
His take over of the OH&S laws from the states is also a worry as he has always stated he favours as little regulation on business as possible, we will see a winding backof the OH&S laws as he did with Work Choices.
As for water, Howard and Turnball refused to help fund QLD and Victoria in their pipelines as the resources would remain in government ownership.
The ACCC is a complete joke, part of Howard deregulation approach.
If he is re-elected he will still have a senate majority and the ability to do what he wants.
Grattan ends her column with this:
“Pro-Costello sources said last night that even if Mr Howard succeeded in resisting pressure to stand down this week, the issue would not go away.”
Surely that means The Duchess of Sturt is working on the numbers for Costello. They just want parliament to rap up so Costello doesn’t appear on TV in the guise of the lunatic P.M. at the dispatch box.
[May of course all be stage managed to show that Howard is a strong leader and it will all be resolved with libs firmly behind Howard.]
No, it just makes him look stubborn, and the rest of them look gutless. It’s a lose-lose no matter how rose-coloured the glasses are.
Adam
It has focused attention back on Howard and the liberal party and away from the disaster of APEC.
It has also taken the focus off Rudd and his policy announcements.
There is the old saying that any publicity is good publicity and maybe people will be watching the next few days to see what happens with Howard giving him the media attention and not labor.
Can’t agree Arbie. The last thing a government or opposition wants to be doing with a maximum 2 months left before an election is fighting amongst themselves. Voters turn off, and don’t come back.
Pistol pete shooting blanks.
“Senior Liberals say Mr Costello personally rang Cabinet ministers, including Howard loyalists, telling them he wanted the job but the PM would have to hand him leadership without a challenge.”
“According to one source, Mr Howard told Mr Downer that his detractors would have to “blast me out”, echoing the words he used in September, 1988 when he was being challenged as Opposition Leader. ”
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22403488-661,00.html
I agreee with Dario, voters want a plan for the future they don’t want to hear about the navel gazing of the Liberal Party.
This Herald Sun article directly implies that Costello is behind it. He wants the P.M. to hand over, he is TOO GUTLESS to challenge! I guess he is worried that a challenge at this late stage will just doom the government.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22403488-661,00.html
“For days, Mr Costello has pursued a behind-the-scenes strategy designed to force Cabinet ministers to tap Mr Howard on the shoulder.
Key Costello supporters were instructed to keep quiet because the Treasurer wanted to avoid open warfare in the party room.
Senior Liberals say Mr Costello personally rang Cabinet ministers, including Howard loyalists, telling them he wanted the job but the PM would have to hand him leadership without a challenge.
There would be no bloody spill, Mr Costello said”
Dario
Maybe you and Adam are right, that would mean Howard is acting in his own interests only and stuff everyone else including his so-called beloved liberal party.
I think what Costello was thinking of Hayden and Hawke, didn’t Hayden step down in favour of Hawke once the election was called, allowing a bloodless and united transition.
Costello is right in that respect, it would have to be done in the style of the Hayden/ Hawke handover for it to be successful.
Perhaps Costello should have offered Howard the governor-general job ala Hayden. That way Howard gets to keep the waterside mansion and views, would just have to move to Admiralty House, Jannette would be happy.
Max (#506) just wrote the best suicide note I’ve ever read.
490 Frank
‘Govt to increase Veterans’ Pensions’
Immediately endorsed by Kevin Rudd.
Apologies. Can’t immediately locate it, but the poster who suggested that ‘they’ are reading the blogs.
I’ll bet they are.
I sent a blog a couple of weeks ago to the GG advising them of my findings after surveying, on my own methodology, a very fair basis, six of their politically oriented forums.
Suggested they must be aghast and possibly may account for the toning down of anti Labor sentiment.
‘Govt to increase Veterans’ Pensions’
Immediately endorsed by Kevin Rudd.
Rudd announce this on Monday. 🙂
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22391400-5005961,00.html
Does any one know what time the Lib party room meeting is on today?
I think Howard will win any challenage. costello just hasn’t the ticker to contest a bloody spill. Howard’s legacy : the destruction of Liberalism in the Liberal Party and the Party itself. What a selfish b*stard.