I have just awoken to a barrage of “Turnbull and Downer deny calling for PM to quit” headlines, capped by Andrew Bolt‘s sensational assertion that Peter Costello will be Prime Minister tomorrow. No time to absorb any of this, but a new thread is clearly in order.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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so says matt price on lateline
It’s bad for the government when it’s own gazette is going to be lising ‘explosive details’. I cant wait. 😀
Bolt is turning positively feral against the Man-o-Steelo.
Matt Price suggesting some juicy detail in tomorrow’s Oz.
Price is saying the GG will report tomorrow that the majority of cabinet doesn’t want Howard and have told him so. Dunno what time they put the next day’s stories online – they’re not there yet.
Anthony usually about 1am
Is it possible that postponing the election is the circuit-breaker the liberals have been holding out for?
Is it possible that defying his party, the polls, the media and common sense constitute howard’s vision for the future? that stubborn defiance alone has become the essence of leadership?
Is it possible that “heading in the right direction” is now a synonym for political self-destruction?
Is it possible that howard has now also destroyed (any remaining hopes for) costello?….forever?
So Downer and Turnbull make their mind and tap the Prime Minister on the shoulder with perhaps one month to an election… and then decide that he is the Coalitions’ best bet…
Real thinkers these people… So why do it?
and for them to actually consider someone like Costello whose poll results are far worse than Howard..
Real thinkers these people…
hehehe.. Bolt calling Johnny a dork and loser, and being quite scathing about Costello’s lack of cojones. I wonder if his and Kroger’s phones are running hot or if they will be the new Lib pariahs.
Hugo, great link.
Well worth a read by anyone interested in how the betting market is not only following the polls , but also the media commentary.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they are monitoring the Blog sites also. The comments as far as I can determine are overwhelmingly against Howard and the Libs.;
Bolt: “Costello is a very long shot. But he’s a long shot versus almost a no-shot”. Wow. He’s really left the reservation. He also doesn’t believe that Costello has the cojones to actually step up tomorrow. I’d agree with the latter point – he makes Beazley look like the King of Ticker by comparison.
They should interview Keating on lateline tonight
I might have been somewhat influenced by Possum’s thoughtful analysis, but I did notice that Downer managed to hit all of the topics that are still “owned” by the government.
This is depressing in that I really don’t think the Coalition being obliterated is good for our country in the medium to long term.
So one month to an election Downer and Turnbull decide to tap Johhnie on the shoulder and ask him to go, and then decide that Howard is the Governments’ best bet… Real thinkers these people…
and to actually think that Costello would be a better alternative when his poll results are worse than Howard… Real thinkers these people…
Desperate politics from people breathing for air…
The energetic Howard. Good, to work on one’s fitness.
Don’t want to make age an issue. But JH insists, draws one’s attention! The flappy trackies. The Oz colours. The paradox.
Alexander has not shown up in costume..since.
Until Costello publicly endorses Howard to lead at the election, and publicly declares his full support, I would not assume that the fat lady has sung. I suspect they’re all really unsure what to do, and, quite understandably, can’t work out who’d be the best leader to improve their vote. Howard, meanwhile, has abandoned his claim to lead for “as long as the party wants me”. Could that statement have been a lie? He has decided to apply some extra araldite.
Andrew A… I tend to agree what would be best is for a major party to be in government with the independents having the balance of power… that way we get some checks and balances…
In Victoria there are some checks and balances with a upper house but we have a government screaming its’ head off when the Greens don’t agree with it. So much for democracy.
If Howard gets pushed out for Costello, don’t be surprised if he becomes bitter and turns on the party. When he was Opposition Leader and got rolled he was scathing of those who had not supported him.
Well I stand corrected bmwofoz – and I’m very sorry for writing a couple of posts in your name and I’m very sorry for accusing you of not being you! But… in my defence … it just seemed strange, the comment going so anti-leftwing all of a sudden. But nevermind, I was in error and I apologise! I hope we can put this unfortunate incident behind us!
What a bizaar day.
1. Howard is wounded but nobody has touched him.
2. We have a challenge without a challenger.
3. Downer mobilises the forces for change but now leads the defence for the incumbent.
What is going on?
As for Newspoll next week I think we should refer to the last example of a major party imploding. Look at late 2004 when Latham imploded. The ALP primary vote collapsed to 33%.
All this on the cusp of an election that the PM, in hindsight, should have already announced. Amazing!
Andrew A – if the coalition lose the federal election, their talent will go to the States and you’ll see some changes at that level sooner or later. The liberals are nowhere near a spent force.
Be interesting to see the GG tomorrow. I suspect it’s pre-today information, which makes it painful but not “new” in the current climate. JWH has made it clear that it will take welding equipment to cut him loose of the PMship and its hard to see the party room seeing that as the best option, given the uncertain benefits of a change of leaders at this stage. However, it will damage them yet further.
I wonder if Bolt has bought a “Kev 07” t-shirt?
Red Wombat.. Lateline continues to have on dingbats and conservative speaking drones… and Matt Price, Mark Latham in his book summed him up superbly… an attention seeker big head, who thinks he knows something… no just another pretenious journalist with a big ego and stupid crappy comments… as soon as i heard these dills were on off went the TV… Feel sorry for Tony Jones… All those years as a journalist and you get to interview dills…
Red Wombat your right Keating should have been on at least something of value would have been said…
[Price is saying the GG will report tomorrow that the majority of cabinet doesn’t want Howard and have told him so.]
If this is true then Howard will be gone before the election. You just can’t have a leader in charge without the support of cabinet.
Costello is a loser! He should either challenge, or announce “I will not accept the leadership”. Costello is killing the government.
Hell, if this gets reasonable media coverage and is picked up by Labor, then Howard is even more trouble.
ELEANOR HALL: The unpopularity of WorkChoices has been one of the political difficulties dogging Prime Minister Howard, though business groups insist it’s a key economic reform.
Now, though, one of the world’s leading labour market economists has attacked WorkChoices as an outmoded policy fighting a war already won.
Professor Richard Freeman of Harvard University is visiting Australia this week, and he spoke a short time ago to Economics Correspondent Stephen Long.
RICHARD FREEMAN: WorkChoices is a law that is based on thinking from 20-odd years ago that has proven not to be valid. Rather than deregulating the labour market and freeing workers and firms and unions to make more and better agreements, it’s actually re-regulated it in a way that is completely unfair to collective interests of workers.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s2029927.htm
Costello should resign unless he does one of two things by lunch time tomorrow:
A} Annonounces he will not accept the leadership
B} Challenges
He is murdering his own party otherwise.
Is Wilson Tuckey still planning to put any motions to the Lib party room meeting tomorrow?
Maybe they’ll all vote no confidence in themselves.
[Costello should resign unless he does one of two things by lunch time tomorrow:
A} Annonounces he will not accept the leadership
B} Challenges
He is murdering his own party otherwise.]
Exactly! It is one thing for Costello to be gutless and hurt his own leadership ambitions, but now he is hurting his entire party and the government.
Perhaps Costello WILL resign, and announce he won’t contest the next election. They’ll then have to find another Treasurer, and a new candidate to save the seat of Higgins. That’s all fantasy though. To resign, he’d have to break his vow of silence.
[Is Wilson Tuckey still planning to put any motions to the Lib party room meeting tomorrow?
Maybe they’ll all vote no confidence in themselves.]
Heffernan will be trying to sure up support for Howard.
[To resign, he’d have to break his vow of silence].
No he would not. He could do what Australian cricketer Damien Martyn did – resign by email.
(Assuming that Costello doesn’t challenge) I could see Howard demanding that Costello publically support him as part of the partyroom meeting tomorrow. As others have pointed out, he really has to do it to stop the bleeding. Unfortunately I think that if he does, he’s killing his chance of ever being PM, even for a couple of months.
On the other hand, maybe Costello just doesn’t care any more. Howard clearly doesn’t care about the overall health of the Liberals if it might conflict with his personal political health – why should Costello be any different?
All online betting agencies have now removed Bennalong from their sites pending resolution of the leadership issue.
This may take days.
paul k @ 467
“If Howard gets pushed out for Costello, don’t be surprised if he becomes bitter and turns on the party.”
Howard seems to be prepared to throw everything at staying in power. Hard to say what he would do if it all fails – maybe your suggestion is the threat that will keep him in power.
I’ve was surprised today at how hard in fought to be tied to trainlines.
He must realise he has lost. Does he think an election defeat is more honorable than being knifed by your party.
Dunno – maybe he is not quite on planet earth now.
There has never been a more important Newspoll for Howard than next Tuesday. Anything less than 56-44 and, with the conspirators together for Parliament all next week, he could well be gone.
Has Mr Rudd got the Libs so spooked that they are prepared to bring their own party to the verge of collapse and leave it with zero credibility.?
As an outsider looking in it seems amazing to watch these people who have been in power for so long behave like this.I have no doubt that whatever follows after this that the government is finished.
If there is a vote on rhe leadership tomorrow,the loser of Costello or Howard has to resign,because in my eyes if the loser stays the tension between them will still be there.They will try to destabilise each other.They are already doing it with the leaked Crosby Textor Report.Its nasty politics at ten paces and its no holds barred.
The ALP must be rubbing theur hands with glee with this happening so close to the election.
[ No he would not. He could do what Australian cricketer Damien Martyn did – resign by email. ]
He could do a Damien O’Connor (NZ Corrections Minister), and try to resign by text message. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10462890
The Lying Rodent is finally going to pay for all his untruths.
His final lie is “I will stay on as long as it is in the best interests of my party.”
He could not even be honest to his own colleagues!!
Yeah Sondeo. The Liberals (or at least Howard-Costello) are where no party wants to be this close to an Election – hating each other more than their opponents. I know the tactic from Labor is don’t say anything and let the Liberals sink, however I’d be out there in the next couple of days delivering the old chestnut: “If you can’t govern yourselves, you can’t govern the Country”.
Possum should have kept quiet and let them walk over the cliff. ;]
There would be no personal gain at all for Costello to take over the leadership except to make a concession speech on election eve, then to resign for a Mcbank job.
He wouldn’t have to much love for his party members either since they are the ones that have kept him out for so long. I am sure Costello doesn’t want the job now and he will have to be coerced into taking it.
As good as he performs in parliament outside in front of the camera he has proved to be fairly poor, so far. He may well be a worse option. AND who would be his Treasurer? None have any economic credibility. It has always been Howard and Costello – their strength and the ‘owners’ of their ‘success’. The broken pair breaks everything.
The Rudd team I think will for once seem clearly superior!
Govt to increase Veterans’ Pensions.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/11/2030328.htm?section=justin
This is madness by the Coalition. My bellwether is a middle-aged male colleague who lives in the Mitchell electorate. He’s not a rusted-on Lib voter by any means (although it’s doubtful he’s ever voted for anyone but the dreaded Alan Cadman in his life) because he’s not too up on current affairs or even how the parliamentary system works. I tried to get him to take a look at the new Liberal candidate, Alex Hawke, and his dastardly role in the re-election of Iemma, which my colleague thought outrageous (Iemma’s re-election, not Hawke’s machinations), but he wasn’t interested in the slightest. However, when I mentioned to him this morning that Downer (whom he agrees is a fool) and Turnbull (about whom he has no opinion whatsoever) were thinking of giving Johnny the tap, he was gobsmacked. I honestly believe that if Howard is forced out, my colleague would vote Rudd, not because he likes him or Labor, but because he would go along with everyone else and back a winner. My other bellwether is the hugely pregnant Lebanese lady who works part-time in the cafe next door (I don’t know what electorate she’s from but I suspect it is as red as mine). She said to me recently that she and her family are traditional Labor voters but that she thought Howard was not given the credit he deserved and I got the impression she might vote for him out of sympathy and respect. If he’s dumped, so are the rest of them. That won’t matter in either of the electorates, as one is solidly blue and (I think) the other red, but it will matter an enormous amount in some of the swinging seats, particularly in western Sydney but far more importantly in suburban Brisbane, where I grew up and know well. If Howard goes, the game’s up. And I don’t want that, as my dearest heart’s desire is to see Johnny’s concession speech and him relegated to the dustcovers of history. All of the speculation is fascinating for we political tarts but out there in suburbia the only thing that will matter is that if Howard goes, the lot of them are stuffed.
Frank, Rudd announced the same thing on Monday. It’s a tit-for-tat policy so it’s not a vote winner. In fact the government has dragged its feet on the issue, it might mean some will turn from him.
Greg,
I’ve been impressed with how the ALP has responded and, in this case, not responded to events. A far more proffesional effort than the Latham campain.
No doubt they are waiting for the right moment .. but, for the next day or so, silence, catch up on a bit of reading, tidy the desk is by far the best option.
Once the libs have locked into one choice or another – let the floodgates open.
[Possum should have kept quiet and let them walk over the cliff. ;]]
Surely the leaking of the Crosby / Textor material to Crikey was from the non-Howard / Costello alliance. Downer explained today they spent all of last week sounding out opinions on Howard’s leadership, it is too much of a coincidence that the C / T material came out last week.
If it is true that only half of the cabinet support Howard that means, Howard is gone. Maybe not tomorrow, but but he won’t stay leader before th election.
Howard just wants them to make a formal challenge so he can write in his memoirs “I was preparing for the election, but then disunity and a lack of loyalty by the actions of …. and …. ended my chances of winning another term.”
Howard wants to be rememberd as the good guy, and wants everyone else to be considered the bad guy that stopped him from winning.
This is wonderful, Howard’s stuborness is stopping a smooth transition to Costello. Costello’s desire not to cut down Howard means he can’t challenge, the fact he is gutless stops him from doing it as well. Either way they are dooming the government.
I’m wondering if tomorrow will see one or the other resign. You’ve got to ask yourself if Costello doesn’t get the leadership now… why stay? A no show in Higgins would certainly crush Howard and create mayhem. No Costello = no Howard.
He certainly looked disinterested today. And he did promise to destroy him.
Scorpio
Work Choices is based on thinking from 1925, from the writings of William Hutt, a right wing academic, who wrote from the isolation of South Africa.
Rafe Champion presented a paper to the HR Nicholls Society, Costello’s and Minchins think tank.
Champion basically said that we will not have a labour market regime that is free until Hutt’s writings are accepted as gospel.
Champion goes on to say that Hutt exposed the “myth” of the workers and unions struggle to get decent wages and safe conditions and freedom of association during the industrial revolution of the 1800’s.
Hutt says that the unions impeded the progress of the labour market and that improvements in wages and working conditions came about through benevolent employers recognising that they should reward employees with higher wages and benefits and safer working conditions.
This was the central pitch of Work Choices, Howard said that employers would not take advantage of employees and that there would be increased benefits. 18 months later Howard had to amend Work Choices with the “Fairless Test” after a long union campaign when he acknowledged that employees were being taken advantage of and there were not increased benefits. Work Choices is still a one sided system that would get a nod of approval from Hutt for a step in giving all power back to the employer.
Costello and Minchin are champions of the HR Nicholls Society and prefer the fully deregulated employment market that Hutt wrote of.
Howard wanted to take Australia back to the 50’s of the white picket fence, but Costello and Mnchin want to take us back to the early 1800’s in terms of industrial relations and the work force.
Just shows how weak and pathetic the Liberal party is if they have to leak this and that information to undermine their leader and the party just so they can challenge him. These people look like shakey knee kiddies compared to Keating. How on earth can the run a country if they cant fire a badly performed worker?
Interesting to note Bolt’s line repeated on lateline –
He is a player on the field, and wants one outcome in particular, whereas Matt Price is simply reporting and intepreting the facts
I agree with Simon above, Costello won’t have the numbers so
….is he backbenched or out to the private sector?
The only way to close this speculation down is for Peter costello to repeat his line that he will go the next lection as treasurer
Labor beenfit either way
[ If he’s dumped, so are the rest of them.]
Is there a consensus about what a Costello leadership would do?
I think there are lots of people who are sick of Howard, so they are currently voting Rudd. Would these people come back to the Liberals if Costello was in charge?
Alternatively, I know some people that only vote Liberal because of Howard! These people are more likely to vote for Rudd if Howard goes.
Do these two groups just cancel each other out? Or does anyone think one group is bigger than the other?
For the Liberal’s sake, I hope there isn’t a leadership change until the end of parliament. Costello’s constant YELLING at the top of his voice at the dispatch box is not very prime ministerial.
[I’ve been impressed with how the ALP has responded and, in this case, not responded to events.]
Exactly, they don’t need to do anything, Rudd should just hang back and let the government destroy itself.
{Govt to increase Veterans’ Pensions.}
Will Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 11:43 pm
Frank, Rudd announced the same thing on Monday.
Actually, Rudd first anounced his intention to increase the Veterans Disability Pension on the 6th of May.
Howard playing catch up again pinching Labor policies.