Westpoll: 51.6-48.4 to Labor in WA

Westpoll’s monthly survey of 410 voters in Western Australia, conducted last weekend and published in today’s West Australian, has federal Labor with a 51.6-48.4 lead on two-party preferred. This points to a 7 per cent swing to Labor which, if uniform, would cost the Liberals Hasluck (1.8 per cent), Stirling (2.0 per cent) and Kalgoorlie (6.3 per cent). The Coalition can at least take comfort from the fact that this is better than Labor’s 54-46 lead in the previous poll, although that result always seemed hard to credit. Preferred prime minister ratings of 47 per cent for Kevin Rudd and 41 per cent for John Howard are unchanged from last month, prompting pollsters Patterson Market Research to argue that the shift to the Coalition on voting intention is meaningful and not the result of sampling issues. No primary vote figures are provided, but the Patterson site should come through here eventually.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

122 comments on “Westpoll: 51.6-48.4 to Labor in WA”

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  2. Dennis Shanahan on ABC WA Morning Program today said, no way that Costello would challenge and the Libs still had hope because their focus groups were not telling them what the polls were.

  3. In any case, “send a message to the state government” ranks up there with “look at the inexperienced front bench” in terms of successful federal election tactics.

  5. Glen,

    ‘look what happened the last time we elected an inexperienced Labor Party to Government in 1972 and their leader had 3 years of leadership experience compared for around 1 year for Rudd’

    You know you’re in trouble when you have to reach back 35 years into the past. I myself was not even born then so for me something that happened in 1972 is irrelevant.

    Anyway I love the way you operate Glen. Throw comments out there that cannot be proven or disproven in anyway because no evidence exists for them.

  6. As I’ve said before Keenan is starting (a bit late perhaps?) to get active in the electorate again.

    Tinley spotted at local shopping centre over the weekend, I expect Keenan had to get across to Canberra, which halts the campaign effort for a week or so.

  10. [ #44
    Greg Says:
    September 10th, 2007 at 11:47 am

    Very insightful analysis Julie @ 38.

    More evidence of the decline of this forum.

    What about some analysis rather than boring, unintelligent rants.

    Gets mighty boring, day after day. ]

    Greg,

    While I would agree that a lot of the posts are “unintelligent rants” I think that election times are times where passions run riot and well thought out arguments sometimes evaporate. It is the nature of politics that it stirs passions. We’ll be seeing a lot of rants from both sides between now and election day. Where I differ from you is that I don’t see this forum necessarily declining as a result. It’s simply become more popular and also I might add I think more entertaining. Some of the rants are quite funny. I still think there are enough diamonds amongst the rough stones to make this site worth visiting. I for one hope it remains popular even if the price we pay is having to put up with “unintelligent rants”.

  11. full of semantics and empty platitudes….
    Glen 30

    Oh the irony.

    ripuarine
    Adam 51

    riparian.

    Habit out of the Rat

    Old joke.

    What is the difference between a stage magician and a research psychologist?
    One pulls rabbits out of hats, and the other pulls habits out of rats.

  14. Ripuarine (a pronoun) is a real though obscure word. It refers to a group of Franks who settled on the Rhine river in the fourth century, and also to the related Germanic language group. It is closely related to the word ‘riparian’, with the same etymological root, and means something like ‘river-dwellers’. You were actually quite close.

    Just my dose of pedantry for the day. Sorry. 🙂

    Normal service will now be resumed.

  16. [Dennis Shanahan on ABC WA Morning Program today said, no way that Costello would challenge and the Libs still had hope because their focus groups were not telling them what the polls were.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/damned-if-he-does-damned-if-he-doesnt/2007/09/09/1189276542059.html?page=2

    I just can’t imagine that all the polls are wrong. According to Phil Coorey, the government’s internal polling still shows them ahead in a majority of seats:

    “The Government believes is has a good message to sell. There are some who still think it can beat Labor. The internal polling shows it ahead of Labor in a majority of seats.”

    Again, for them to be ahead in most seats, their polling must be flawed because it disagrees with all the published opinion polls for this entire year so far.

  17. The OED gives “Ripuarian” refering to the river-bank dwelling Franks. It doesn’t give “ripuarine” at all. Google turns up one example: “The creek is almost entirely at the surface level and unaltered although its ripuarine habitat is largely destroyed in the more developed areas…”

  18. Fair point Jasmine, I’m just regurgitating what I hear. Benig on the east coast and not in the mining industry, I have no idea what plays out in the nickel belt. Does anyone have an informed view of what moves voters out that way?

  20. Oops, outpedanted. 🙂

    I knew I have should have double-checked and not relied on 25 year old memories from first year uni linguistic lectures.

    Note to self: Stick to your own technical specialty.

  22. From Crikey, an further analysis of the Crosby Textor report leaked a week or so ago.

    “Clearly there is a firewall strategy in place, but equally clearly, it is just too many points and seats deep for the finances available to run it effectively. The only question left to answer is which seats the Liberal leadership has actually decided to sacrifice and which ones will be properly funded in the firewall. Howard has conceded the election, but hasn’t told his marginal seat holders. Talk about an election being a circuit breaker is simply for internal Coalition consumption. The Liberal leadership knows they’ve lost. They’ve conceded the election, which is why they are running a firewall strategy. They have lost but cannot tell their own marginal seat holders because a riot will break out and turn a defeat into destruction. ”

    http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070910-Never-mind-the-Nielsen-heres-the-death-sentence-2.html

    [Simon @66, thanks for agreeing with me and also for making my point in a more subtle way ;-)]

  23. The internal polling shows it ahead of Labor in a majority of seats.”

    This would be polling at odds with the coalition’s own leaked polling (Crosby-Textor) which said they were behind on just about every issue and that Labor “owned” most of the issues important to voters.

    This would be polling at odds with every published and every leaked poll in the last 10 months.

    This would be polling at odds with reality.

  24. Hey, Ozymandias. . .

    You sure that skull/cap helmet of yours hasn’t fused itself with your skull? Perhaps your blog entries are being controlled by aliens! 😉 For the uninitiated – please refer to “The Tripods” on Amazon.com

  25. [Howard has conceded the election, but hasn’t told his marginal seat holders. Talk about an election being a circuit breaker is simply for internal Coalition consumption. The Liberal leadership knows they’ve lost.]

    Must be true if it’s from Crikey!

    Howard plays to win and would still believe he can.

    Talk of them just going through the motions is silly.

  26. That be possum’s work (as crikey acknowledges), hope Crikey is sending you a big juicy pile of money Possum, poor ol’ Christian couldn’t do that unless every second paragraph ended with ‘Howard will win because ….’

  27. [Christian couldn’t do that unless every second paragraph ended with ‘Howard will win because ….’]

    To be fair, he now thinks the most likely scenario is Rudd winning comfortably.

  29. I stopped subscribing sometime ago; the new management felt too polished for my liking. Thanks for the update; but it wasn’t that long ago he wrote the ‘economy stupid’ peice as the way / reason Howard should win. It is my view they are looking at the wrong bits of the economy.

    The best numbers in the universe are meaningless if you’ve got a 20K debt riding on your credit card in your pocket. And the forces of darkness can say it is my fault 7 billion times and it is not going to make me even a touch happier.

    And for those tending towards and autobiographical interpretation my credit card was cleaned last week, anyone want to tackle my mortgage as a gift?

  30. Blair, Beattie, Bracks, Carr and in sadder circumstances Gallop and Bacon show the Liberal Party that you can re-generate in office.

    I am afraid it might be too late John Howard. Trying to present a plan for the future, when you’re 68 and have been around for 11 years is a very difficult task. Whether or not its impossible or not we’ll see soon?

  31. [I am afraid it might be too late John Howard. Trying to present a plan for the future, when you’re 68 and have been around for 11 years is a very difficult task. Whether or not its impossible or not we’ll see soon?]

    Exactly, and according to Crikey he didn’t get off to a good start promoting the “vision thing” on AM this morning:
    http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070910-A-belated-search-for-the-vision-thing.html

    Howard: Well I suppose the best way you do that is you demonstrate that your plans for the future are better than the other person’s. That’s how you do it.

    Uhlmann: But what are they prime minister?

    Howard: I beg your pardon?

    Uhlmann: What are those plans for the future?

    Howard: Ah well, they are to use, I don’t have time on a short interview like this to detail all of them, but they are essentially to use the prosperity that we now have to deal with the difficulties some people still have and also to build a stronger and more prosperous future and I think we have to shift the balance of the debate and the projection to those things rather than spend all our time saying how well we have done over the last 10 or 11 years.

  32. Re (80)

    “Blair, Beattie, Bracks, Carr and in sadder circumstances Gallop and Bacon show the Liberal Party that you can re-generate in office.”

    Costello must be spitting chips to see that Howard hasn’t followed the examples set by the premiers to (excepting those sad circumstances) of knowing how to go out on top.

  33. WOW. Maxine McKew is now on $2.00, down from $2.35 on Portlandbet. Howard is out to $1.70.

    I guess Portlandbet are covering themselves a bit in case he resigns before the election.

  34. [Costello must be spitting chips to see that Howard hasn’t followed the examples set by the premiers to (excepting those sad circumstances) of knowing how to go out on top.]

    Costello’s line is that the Howard / Peacock contests during the 1980s was bad for the party. This is the excuse he uses to explain why he has never challenged. The real reason is that he is gutless and thinks the job should be handed to him.

    He is more like Beazley than Keating.

  35. I didn’t expect Beattie to go until after the federal election, but it may be savvy timing and departue for Labor.

    His replacement has a good profile and will get more than the usual honeymoon: a little of this may rub off on Labor generally in Queensland, especially as she has been kept away from the ordure of council amalgamations. (Conversely she’s led the Mary River dam project which will be swaying a few votes to the Coalition in the Wide Bay and far north of the Sunshine Coast area – but those seats are hardly within Labor’s reach).

    Am still laughing at Glenn Milne’s frothing-at-the-mouth column. He clearly wants Howard out for Costello, without a second’s delay. (Does this imply this is what Costello wants??) One of the dafter arguments is that Howard is as unpopular as Beazley (and by implication that Costello would bring Rudd’s freshness…)

  37. Bit hard on Costello, yes Keating had a two shot plan, challenge, lose and wait and grumble until the PM is thrown out.

    Whether or not Costello (plus the boy bits that some seem think critical to hard decision making and courageous stands taken daily by women without the boy bits at all) would have had this impact is debatable.

    The self-delusion amoungst the Howard believers is still amazing, even as Andrew bolts and Janet dumps on Howard. Costello would have had to rely on being able to defeat this self-delusion before the party dumped Howard and chose him. He is right it might have done the liberals more harm than good.

    The reality is while the Labor caucus is responsible for Latham and now gets some of the credit for chosing Rudd, the whole party room should be taking a good hard look at themselves. 11 years of blind unquestioning belief (something we are ever likely to see on ourside of the fence) really blinded them to the need for change.

    Howard for not having the courage to go, rather than Costello for not having the courage to knife him, should suffer more in the telling of history if there is a bloodbath on election day.

  40. Adam, the same was with Goss. The whole Goss Gloss was what people turned away from. At least Beattie bowed out before getting the tap on the shoulder or worse, losing an election.

  41. [Beattie has been very successful electorally, but I can’t say I will miss him much. His shameless populism is a bit much even for me to stomach.]

    How does someone become a Labor premier in QLD without being populist?

    [At least Beattie bowed out before getting the tap on the shoulder or worse, losing an election.]

    You’re saying he didn’t do a Howard 😛

  43. The Crikey-posted commentary on Crosby/Textor is startling.

    It does make me wonder why the Crosby/Textor stuff was leaked. Is it a ploy? The really good thing is Rudd still has some ground to poach from Howard & The Liberals .

  44. Howard for not having the courage to go, rather than Costello for not having the courage to knife him, should suffer more in the telling of history if there is a bloodbath on election day.

    Oh he will, no doubt about it.

    Then again, Costello will not feature very prominently in the telling of history. 🙂

  49. Re: Beatie leaving.

    Will he now be able to go out full time and work the marginal seats for Federal Labor? And if he does would it make any difference? It also allows him as a private citizen to make himself available to the media in the Federal campaign though whether the media continues to pay him any attention is another matter.

  50. “According to Crikey Poss is: “the unflappable and astoundingly incisive Possum Comitatus”

    How true. But I think that means they’re not paying him.”

    They should pay him, else he will invade their roofs!

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