Sky News is broadcasting four “Voters Verdict” programs each night until Friday at 9.30pm EST. These feature American blow-in Frank Luntz and a 24-member focus group divided evenly between Labor-leaning and Coalition-leaning undecided voters. These voters will participate in “instant audience response dial sessions” that will measure their reactions to statements made by the two leaders. As you may have guessed, the instant audience response dial procedure is better known in this part of the world as “the worm”. Luntz was in the news yesterday after describing the Prime Minister as “a world leader for invective”, which suggests he is taking his time to acclimatise to Australia’s political culture. A preview program which aired last night can be viewed at The Australian site.
Lord D i think if things go as badly for the Libs as they did for the ALP ill probably just do what you did in 2004 instead of watching Howard go down in flames…i knew we were going to hold on when we got those 2 tassie seats…but since they’ll both be lost in the first hours of coverage they get stuck into Eden Monaro…and if thats down the tubes then its just 14 seats to go…
But to the ALP supporters you’ll enjoy the ‘victory’ every so much more if you can keep your hubris under control…granted if the Coalition was ahead by 14 points id be pretty confident too but it aint over till the fat lady sings and while she’s a hummin right now she hasnt started signing…
Of course i was wary of the 2004 election after all Latham needed what 12-3 seats to win and alot of Liberals were wary of the election we had to come from behind in the last 3 elections…Howard likes the underdog status and i think it should help him this time…but what they (Libs) need to do is scrutinise with a fine comb Labors policies especially economic policies (if they have any) and find any mistakes or blunders this could hurt Rudd…
Yes Tony, but parliament is prorogued once the election is called, and if we are to have “short parliamentary sitting” after APEC, that might involve the House sitting on, say, Monday or Tuesday. The 33 days thing means that an election must be called by midday on a Monday, though it could be called before that. It would be grossly improper to embroil foreign dignatories in a domestic election campaign, and it would look grubby, so JWH can’t call the election till they’ve all gone home.
Moreover, the government will need all the media it can get. Burying the start of the formal campaign under footy blather (go the Rabbitohs!) usually suits the incumbent, but not this time, not when they’re so far behind. Much more sensible to run the campaign through October, one of the few Sport-free months in the year. Ergo, 27 Oct or 3 Nov.
Of course, they could go as late as 15 December….
Don’t want to hog too much web space, but just had a very random thought.
If John Howard thinks he might lose his seat, and be out of politics after election day, what would he want to do then? I reckon he’d like to sit down and watch the cricket on telly. Thie first cricket test of the summer starts on November the 8th.
If he lost the election, he’d need a few days to lean out his offices and hand over to the new PM and the new Member for Bennelong. So I reckon we should discount a November election!
If the polls don’t improve, the longer Howard delays calling the election, the more chance there is of his party tapping him on the shoulder…
Tony,
If John H loses he’ll be very busy for weeks shedding papers and destroying the evidence.
Well I still reckon he’llcall the election after CHOGM, as Howard is such a media whore he will want to be there amongst all the Commonwealth leaders that one last time.
Also, as well as the footy finals of late sept, there are also School Holidays on which means that people will be away, and thus hard for candidates to doorknock/campaign.
I predict 8th December.
Then it could be a January election…but Tony i dont think Howard can leave now and he wont Tony he’s not a coward even Keating admits this fact…he’s banking on the polls shifting back to the Coalition once the election is called and people have to start really thinking about the election and the prospects of a Rudd Government.
Paul k i know you dont like Howard but dont compare him to Nixon…i think Howard has done more good for Australia than Nixon did good for the USA.
Did I mention Nixon???
Well, I trust all of us are encouraging youngsters to enrol !
The new cutoff is a scandal.
[Then it could be a January election]
Glen, that will NEVER happen, for a start it’s smack bang in the middle of Xmas/New Year – people on holiday etc, heaps of postal and absentee votes – you wouldn’t get any result on the Saturday Evening.
Secondly, I believe State laws forbid the use of local schools outside of gazetted school terms – something to do with security amongst other issues.
Aw Glen,
I’m so glad you are ready to make nice. And, just to prove there is a place for you in the socialist workers paradise after the election we have allocated a job for you that recognises your special talents.
You get to collect the semen for horse breeders to use in artificial insemination.
Goodnesa knows, you know the motion and you have been practicing for awhile.
Could be a great career move.
Your reference to shredding documents was in reference to Nixon im assuming…
By the way does anybody know where Michael Brissenden has got to he’s not been on the 7:30 Report for a while??
Wonder who’ll be on lateline maybe Joe Hockey after Gillard’s performance…god she had a shocker Jones ripped her apart last night her delivery is well below par and to think she could be the next Deputy Prime Minister…
the latest an election has ever been held in a calendar year was on 19 December 1931
Paul K im assuming that was the one that brought the UAP to power under Joseph Lyons…against Scullian so there is evidence the longer a Government waits the less chance it has to win??
Glen,
You are taking my posts far too seriously. Anyway I like Nixon. May have been a crook but aren’t they all. At least he opened the doors to China and reduced tension with the Soviets. As opposed to our current crop of leaders who refuse to talk to our potential enemies and just keep trying to talk up the reasons for first strike attacks, even including using nuclear weapons. I’d rather a Nixon than a Bush any day.
Too much further delay will make calling the election itself a big issue; people are sick and tired of this eternal campaign.
[the election must be held on a Saturday – Section 158 Australian Constitution]
Coincidently, I’d vote for Howard on any day, excluding Saturdays.
I conceed one point to Glen, I don’t think a new Labor government would have a ministry as good as the 2nd Hawke ministry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Hawke_Ministry
Sure it didn’t have enough women, but there weren’t as many in parliament then. Almost all of them are some of the best Labor MPs ever. No wonder they got so much done, it was a ministry full of talent.
Well it’s certainly got all of us agitated. I feel like a footy player must before playing the Grand Final – I just want to get on with it! However it’s certainly possible that JWH will hang on, hoping for a miracle, and we won’t get to vote till December – still three months away! I’m not sure how much more of this phony campaign I can take.
Nixon as a world statesmens i have no problem with at all and i would have voted for him were i an American…ok sorry Paul ill start not taking them so seriously maybe i ought to do the same for Greeensborough Growler’s…
“A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits.”
Richard M. Nixon…
This is exactly why Howard wont quit now…no matter how much Iron Bar wants him to do so…
[the latest an election has ever been held in a calendar year was on 19 December 1931]
I think December 1st is an option, but I think 8th or 15th would be too late. Everyone would just think he is desparate, and knows he is going to lose.
My current guess is that an election will be called sometime during or at the end of the next parliamentary sitting that fllows directly after APEC – which means an election date late October or early November.
the comment by Rudd today on the three years being nearly up suggests that the ALP is about to put the pressure on by suggesting that the government is trying to hang on to power and this suggestion will gain greater resonance the later the election date.
Just in case Rudd loses he can take solace in a quote from Richard Nixon….
“A man who has never lost himself in a cause bigger than himself has missed one of life’s mountaintop experiences. Only in losing himself does he find himself. Only then does he discover all the latent strengths he never knew he had and which otherwise would have remained dormant. ”
That’s why ive said Rudd wouldnt be so bad as a Labor PM but in 2010 not 2007 that’s what id prefer and i think the country would be better for it…
Glen,
Do you have a Nixonian quote for Howard if he loses? How about ” I am not a crook”.
Glen goes away, Cedric shows up, Cedric goes away.
Glen shows up
nah hmmm lets see Paul k ive got this one for Howard…
“A public man must never forget that he loses his usefulness when he as an individual, rather than his policy, becomes the issue. ”
Richard M. Nixon
OR
“If an individual wants to be a leader and isn’t controversial, that means he never stood for anything. ”
Richard M. Nixon
and if he Beats Rudd…
“You’ve got to learn to survive a defeat. That’s when you develop character. ”
Im sure you’d like the first few…
Ok. Make it December 8. That’s my birthday.
So Much for Howard holding plebiscites re Nuclear Reactors in the NT.
[But Mr Howard ruled out holding a plebiscite on whether low and intermediate level waste should be transported and stored in the territory, calling the NT government’s request for a vote “hypocritical”.
“We’re negotiating with the traditional owners of the land and let’s see how those negotiations proceed,” he told ABC radio.
“I know the territory government is adopting this incredible attitude and that is that the waste has to go somewhere but it has not got to go in the Northern Territory.”]
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/PM-backs-off-nuke-waste-dump-referendum/2007/08/29/1188067184789.html
You won’t have Glen to kick around anymore, because, this is his last blog.
Another broken Liberal promise.
Glen,
How about this quote from Nixon for Howard preparing to debate Rudd:
“I wish I could give you a lot of advice, based on my experience of winning political debates. But I don’t have that experience. My only experience is at losing them.”
Or this one:
“Sure there are dishonest men in local government. But there are dishonest men in national government too.”
Greeensborough Growler Says:
August 29th, 2007 at 8:57 pm
You won’t have Glen to kick around anymore, because, this is his last blog.
Another broken Liberal promise.
LMAO ,Classic 😀
William
Slipped a wee bit into your kitty via paypal to help with bandwidth, reference for the payment was “Ratsak”. Thanks agin for providing the blog.
.
I’ve asked this question before, but no-one came up with an answer. Has any government in Australia EVER gone to the people significantly beyond its completed term? Most governments which believe they can win an election actually go early. Few government go full term unless there are fixed terms, or they are set to lose. I can’t recall any government, not even a certain loser like Keating in 1996, trying to do extra time.
Howard may theoretically be able to hold off calling an election till January, but his three-year term is up in October. I can’t see him delaying the election, because he isn’t stupid. Nor can I see Labor letting him delay the election. He can be accused of “clinging desperately to power” if he hasn’t called the election by the end of September.
There’s really no evidence his polling will improve by delaying the election, his best hope is to call the election, get voters minds concentrated on it, and campaign well.
Hugo says ….
“An election campaign must be for a minimum of 33 days and must be held on a Saturday. Following the above timetable, that would make the election on 20 October, though personally I think either of the following two Saturdays (27 Oct & 3 Nov) are more likely. Calling an election in mid-September means that the first two weeks of the campaign will be drowned out by the footy finals (go the Rabbitohs!), time the government can ill-afford to lose.”
Whatever the PM does he has problems.
1. October 27 coincides with the transition to daylight savings and campaigning begins while the footy finals are on.
2. November 3 has the footy finals problem as well. But this day is also Derby day in Victoria, the biggest race meet in the Australian racing calendar. It is also the weekend before the Melbourne Cup and many people take long weekends, especially in Victoria, Tasmania and Southern NSW.
3. November 10 is after the Reserve bank meets and possibly jacks up interest rates.
4. November 17 onwards leaves the PM open to the charge that he delaying the election well beyond his alloted 3 years. The media in particular will run this line.
Some choice. What is the lesser of all these evils?
For me its October 27th and the potential of a 6 week campaign as soon as the Canadian PM leaves the country.
And what would Howard want to delay the election so he could go to CHOGM? CHOGM is nothing compared to APEC, in terms of being photographed with significant world leaders wearing Drizabones. And (correct me if I’m wrong) CHOGM is in UGANDA!
I’m not sure Howard will worry too much about “hanging on too long” – after all he’s already done it by not retiring last year, so a few more weeks won’t make any difference. He may well wait and hope and pray that “something” turns up – a significant terrorist attack, a natural disaster, a boatload of refugees, anything. I don’t think there’s much can save the old bugger now, but he’ll go on believing he can win and so might yet have another three and a half months before we finally get to vote.
Essentially the PM is a tribal member of the Liberal party. If holding out further damages his party’s electoral prospects then I think he’d call the election sooner rather than later.
I don’t think hanging on would win him many votes even if something did happen. People are sick of this. The phoney campaign has been going on since February.
From ABC Online…what do you all think of this? I reckon it’s hardly a surprise…and 25,000 public comments suggests this is an issue that could sway votes.
Federal Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull has delayed his decision on whether to approve the controversial Gunns pulp mill proposed for the Tamar Valley in northern Tasmania.
Mr Turnbull was required to make a decision on the proposal by today or extend the time available for consideration.
Mr Turnbull says he has been advised by the chief scientist that a decision can not yet made and will therefore be delayed for 30 working days.
Nearly 25,000 people have made submissions to the Minister during the period of public comment.
It would really only be a month over his 3 year term i dont see what all the hoopla is all about its the Prime Minister who has the power to call the election and all the crowing from Rudd will not get him to call it whilst Rudds popularity is soaring…no wonder Rudd is asking John Howard to go to the polls now because the polls say he’ll win easily…
I am predicting a early November election…
Maybe Howard has anointed Rudd because he does not believe there is any one on the Liberal side who will carry on his legacy.
There is a remarkable lack of fight from the leader of the Libs.
[Mr Turnbull says he has been advised by the chief scientist that a decision can not yet made and will therefore be delayed for 30 working days.]
Turnbull is obviouisly going to delay it until the election is called when he CAN’T make a decision without the consent of the ALP.
[I am predicting a early November election…]
If he calls it then he will be lucky to get 46% of the vote. I think it has to be late November, or December 1st.
( lack of fight from the leader of the Libs )
Actually watching Howard on TV today he looked tired and like someone whose heart is not in the fight. Maybe he just had an off day, but he can’t afford too many of them.
[Maybe Howard has anointed Rudd because he does not believe there is any one on the Liberal side who will carry on his legacy.
There is a remarkable lack of fight from the leader of the Libs.]
I wouldn’t be surprised if Howard mentions in his memoirs that Rudd is probably the best ALP prime minister, i.e. better than Hawke, Keating.
This is the shortest blog entry I’ve ever seen. A very succinct argument you put forward there, ChrisD. Does it mean that you think the election is over, done, finished, and there’s no more to be said, full stop??
That means Simon and you are probably correct about your predicition that Rudd will be squealing for months about when the election is going to be called…this has positives and negatives for both…for Howard it makes him look arrogant and unwilling to give up power and for Rudd it makes him look cocky and full of hubris…
[That means Simon and you are probably correct about your predicition that Rudd will be squealing for months about when the election is going to be called…this has positives and negatives for both…for Howard it makes him look arrogant and unwilling to give up power and for Rudd it makes him look cocky and full of hubris…]
No, it makes Rudd look like he is ready and can’t wait for the challenge. It makes Howard look like he knows he is going to lose.
Because polls are polls and the election is the election.
Very differant beasts.
It will come down to 1-3 seats , a .5 swing in one day can decide it.
So can a boatload, (pun intended)
Neil (234) – I’m with you on those arguments for the election date. You make very valid points. Especially the Derby Day election date. He’ll lose thousands of votes in Victoria alone if he goes on that date. Particularly with the raised profile of horse raising now that the flu virus has hit the news.
All that being said, although I like the uncertainty and tenterhooks for the election date (kind of like an AFL game where you don’t know when the siren will go), I think we’re overdue for fixed terms.
Rudd might be ready Simon but is his invisible front bench that is the question???
Its going to be a Rudd Rudd Rudd election and we’ll hear nothing from his front bench for obvious reasons he wants people to choose between him and Howard…
[It will come down to 1-3 seats , a .5 swing in one day can decide it.]
Isn’t this the easieast prediction to make, because it means whichever way it goes you probably won’t be wrong by much, even though the result may change.
Most elections produce a clear winner by at least 8 – 10 seats. If it is 1 – 3 seats it will be a very unusual election result.