Before any post-election events, Turnbull has the challenge of holding Wentworth. It’s on 2.6 per cent although in practice rather more, because in 2004 then incumbent Peter King ran as an independent. Turnbull is locked in battle with lawyer and Waverley mayor George Newhouse. Liberals say Turnbull’s polling is good. Labor polling a few weeks ago had Turnbull on 47 per cent, Newhouse 42 per cent and Greens 11 per cent.
On those figures, Newhouse would still win the seat if he received 73 per cent of Greens preferences. Labor was shown to have received 74.8 per cent of Greens preferences at the 2001 election in a study by the Parliamentary Library.