Unsafe as houses

Having done my bit to fan the flames of anti-Australian hysteria, props are due to the paper for this morning’s typically excellent piece by George Megalogenis on regional variations in housing price movements. Crucially, a “two-speed housing market” is identified in New South Wales, promising to hit the Coalition hard in marginal suburban and hinterland electorates (specifically Parramatta, Lindsay, Dobell, Robertson and all-important Bennelong), while delivering worthless dividends in the rich inner suburbs (where double-digit swings to the Coalition were recorded in the March state election). There’s a particularly handy cut-out-and-keep graphic listing the 20 electorates where prices have moved most heavily either way, the “price rises” list being monopolised by Western Australia. This ties in nicely with localised polling showing the Coalition collapsing in NSW, while holding ground or better in WA. Also instructive are Possum Comitatus‘s renowned observations on the ratio of interest payments to disposable income. Further analysis of Megalogenis’s data from Simon Jackman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

344 comments on “Unsafe as houses”

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  1. Only fools would believe a poll that emanated from the left-wing dogs of the Fairfax press. There is absolutely no need to change leaders – Howard will win the election and go when he wants, and that may or may not be during the next term.

  2. Abbot too polerizing not PM material
    Turnbal seen by dominant faschist faction of the Liberal party as a raging pinko
    Costelo is hated and would be a looser

    therfore Howard by defalt alone.

    Nostradamus i always though you were an absolute nutcase, but the more I read your works the more I begin to realise your just joking around, right? right? I sure hope im correct or else you’d probably be loony enough for the Citizens Electoral Council! Fairfax, Left Wing? Ha Ha LOL LOL!

  4. A-C Says:

    July 17th, 2007 at 11:39 pm
    How many of you reckon Howard was ready to stand down yesterday?

    Not me. I think it is a carefully crafted editorial inspired peice to show Howard as caring and willing to listen to the electorate. “I am only serving as prime minister because the party and the people love me so much – I am really doing this as a favour to the people…” Piffle. Also, it was released at the same time as his youtube site.

    Tom.

  5. Anyone who saw Turnball being hung, drawn and quartered on last night’s 7.30 REPORT wouldn’t be voting for him to succeed Howard – what an inept performance!
    I’m hardly popping the champagne cork yet. I’d never underestimate Howard’s capacity to win another election, but he seems to be running out of options and time to engineer another great escape. Rudd is untested in an election campaign, Swan is a dud shadow treasurer, Gillard has a proven record of policy stuffups – yes, the ALP could very well snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
    The two things working against the Liberals this time are Rudd’s freshness and youth vs Howard’s age, and the perception he’s been there too long.
    I believe the actual election result will be far tighter than the landslide the polls are currently predicting: 52-48 either way.

  6. I think you’re right Kina. Howard relies of fear, uncertainty and doubt FUD. It worked in the past, but it looks like the electorate is now onto him. Witness the enormous cynicism about his motives for the NT invasion.

    Howard has always been good at re-inventing himself. Can he he do it again? I think he’s lost credibility with the majority of voters and that means it won’t matter what he comes up with. I think his best bet is genuine honesty. Admit Iraq was a mistake, admit Workchoices was a mistake and reverse them . People may then be prepared to believe him, but they still wouldn’t vote for him. That’s the problem with holding yourself up as a strong, unflinching leader. When you make a mistake, you’re stuck with it.

    My prediction ALP/Coalition 53/47 TPP and the man who cried ‘wolf’ losing in Bennelong

  7. Does anyone know of anywhere that has the estimates of the electoral redistributions from the last election on primary votes rather than the usual TPP vote?

    The reason I need this is I’m just about to produce the ALP primary vote projections for Coalition seats at the forthcoming election based on the most recent quarterly Newspoll data rather than Q1 data which I used a few days ago.The most recent quarterly data is so astonishing that I had to run a barrage of statistical checks to make sure it was real and that I wasnt imagining things or stuffing my data manipulation up.Hence my use of the Q1 data.But Q2 is ready to go and I’d like to be able to project it using the current redistributions.

    Can anyone help?

  10. Did the Government intend to use the Haneef business to make some wedge points for itself? And is it now in the process of blowing up in their face? [Rudd did well to stay out of it – another wedge avoided].

    It certainly looks untidy. And now Ruddock is threatening harder laws blaming the judiciary of not adhering to the spirit of the terrorism laws . ie the magistrates gave Haneef and, the Timor persons bail.

    Seems the goverment wants to have kept in prison anybody it wants, regardless of the process of law. Scary government this one!

  11. Possum asked: Does anyone know of anywhere that has the estimates of the electoral redistributions from the last election on primary votes rather than the usual TPP vote? Can anyone help?

    Ask Antony. He spends half his life doing this sort of thing. Malcolm would have done it too. Having tried it myself, I can say it is a tortuous and thankless task.

  15. Swan is a dud isn’t he, they will need a new treasurer quite quickly I suspect. Gillard has peaked, you can’t go much further with that voice, or look. I remember Hocky saying she was prettier than me. Was that sarcastic? They would make a great Shrek and Princess Fiona together.

    A lot of talk on swings. I remember Beazley got 52% and lost. They have to swing in the right places, and swing they will. I predict a labor majority of 4 at the end. IR alone will win it, hammer it home boys. Remember that 46% voted for ML, meaning 46% would vote for Humphrey B Bear. There is not that much to make up.

    As for a date you’re all creeping me out on the 10th Nov as I am going away, and watching it on tele is better than live sport. I saw an astrologer predict the 24th, I’m hoping he is right. anyone other guesses?

  16. William, rightio

    Kina, wedge avoidance is how I read it too. Burke was careful to say “based on what Andrews had presented to the public” Labor gave in-principle support — implying that if anything significant had been omitted…

    I notice Abbott is calling this general strategy me-tooism; I call it tight marking and it has served Rudd well this year. Particularly NT where Rudd made himself look a bit silly but the alternative was to be wedged royally. While Rudd has made several mistakes this year, this is one area where he got it right from day one IMHO. I’m convinced he’s a chess player. Anyone know for sure?

  17. Aristotle, I don’t think it’s a case of Howard acquiring a reverse Midas touch; it’s simply a case of him losing his Midas touch; he’s still got an approx 45% approval rating; it’s just that all his tricks don’t seem to be working.

    If you want someone who DOES have a reverse Midas touch, just try George W. Bush. With Bush, everything he touches does in fact turn out crap, to the extent that in the 2006 mid-term elections many Republican candidates avoided him. For this reason, I’m looking forward to great pics of Bush and Howard acting like best buddies at APEC.

  18. 45% approval rating kind of over states Howard’s support if the primary polling and 2pp estimates are anywhere near the mark.

  19. Nostradamus Says:

    July 18th, 2007 at 6:17 am
    Only fools would believe a poll that emanated from the left-wing dogs of the Fairfax press.

    And what do you make of the cumulative Newspolls from the right-wing dogs of the Murdoch press, showing a 12% swing in safe Coalition seats?

  22. Kelly seems to be under the misapprehension that Howard’s IR laws are popular, a winner, and that Rudd’s are a loser. The polls on this issue refute this of course but hey, why let the facts get in the way of a good story.

  23. Actually, Dinsdale and Gary, the swing in Coalition safes is 14% from last election – Labor lead 44-43 primary and 52-48 2PP in those seats in Apr-July newspolls.

  25. I would class Dunkley (where I grew up) as an urban seat. It consists mainly of Frankston, a socially mixed suburb with some strong Labor areas, plus Mt Eliza and Mornington, wealthy outer suburban areas. In 2004 the Labor 2PV was 57% in Monterey (in north Frankston) and 22% in Mt Eliza Central. Who holds Dunkley depends largely on redistributions. When Labor last won it (1993) it had more Labor-voting suburbs to the north and didn’t have Mornington.

    La Trobe is a genuinely outer suburban seat. It’s usually thought of as a Dandenong Ranges seat – in fact the majority of its votes are in the Berwick-Narre Warren area, which is fast-growing, affluent/aspirational and increasingly Liberal, although Labor holds all of it at state level. The hill towns such as Belgrave and Sassafras still vote Labor. Both its boundaries and its economic profile have changed since Labor last won it (1987).

    Casey is even more “outer” – apart from Croydon, which is middle-income suburbia, it’s mostly Yarra Valley ponyclub country. Towns like Mooroolbark, Lilydale and Lilsyth are pretty prosperous and solidly Liberal. The only Labor booths are hill towns like Kallista and The Patch. Labor hasn’t won it since 1983 and I don’t think will do so again.

    Both Bruce Billson (Dunkley) and Tony Smith (Casey) are Costelloite moderates with good local images, and even Billson (on 9.4%) will be hard to beat unless there is a big swing across Melbourne. Jason Wood in La Trobe (5.8%) is a more Howardish figure and is more vulnerable.

  27. I’m sure Ron Walker, former federal treasurer of the Liberal Party and chairman of the board at Fairfax, would love being described as a leftwing dog. If there’s one thing more than another that persuades me that Labor will win the election, it’s the utter feebleness and stupidity of the defence of the Howard government being put up here. I could make a ten-times better argument for the Liberals than shallow, cynical, abusive fools like [you know who you are] have managed so far. Obviously all the intelligent Liberals, of which there are many, have given up on Howard and are preparing to fight the 2008 double dissolution under Costello.

  28. “The AEC classes Dunkley, La Trobe & Casey as ‘Outer Metropolitan’ (and McEwan as ‘Rural’)”

    These are probably just administrative labels. The AEC classifications are moreso coarse-grained labels than useful descriptions.

  29. Ah Adam,

    Scared yourself with your comments last night?

    Any sensible person wouldnt vote for either party! No need to make any case on that point its open and shut. Its more who is less bad I would say!

  30. Dinsdale Piranha Says:
    July 18th, 2007 at 12:15 pm

    “I think this characterisation of Rudd by Paul Kelly as a younger Bob Carr is pretty accurate. Much more so than a young Howard.

    Of course, he manages to ruin the blog with a tiresome critique of Rudd’s IR policy, which isn’t a liability at all. But check it out anyway.”

    Gary Bruce Says:
    July 18th, 2007 at 12:21 pm

    “Kelly seems to be under the misapprehension that Howard’s IR laws are popular, a winner, and that Rudd’s are a loser. The polls on this issue refute this of course but hey, why let the facts get in the way of a good story.”

    I think Kelly is running an agenda on IR and is writing to instructions.

  31. Laurie Oakes summed up just how intellectually bankrupt the Rudd 2007 campaign is when he got Wayne Swan to admit that Labor could do nothing to reduce petrol prices, grocery prices or housing prices.

    I do disagree with the last of those though, when Labor implements its job killing policies, raises taxes and imposes its Jurassic Age system of workplace regulations, combined with the Garrett recession, housing prices will collapse as people’s wages fall due to mass retrenchments and a flood of stock comes on to the market for sale.

  32. You are kidding right swordfish … there is no question the Government of the day CAN DO ANYTHING to reduce petrol prices, grocery prices and housing prices, so long as a corporation is loosely involved in the process. Like workchoices was setup to create a market that could destroy wages and conditions it is easy to imagine legislation that could destroy these markets from the supply side. And your ‘example’ is indeed an own goal in that is shows how easy it is, just you the example provided is an extreme unrealistic unfair and illconsidered example of how it can be done.

    The argument is not about whether or not something can be done – it is whether or not what is proposed will have the desired impact in a way that is beneficial for the consumer, economy and supplier. And frankly a Government that actually cares about the rights and needs of ordinary Australians and makes it obvious it is watching out for them can do a great deal of good indeed.

  33. I’ve just broken down the quarterly newspoll data, but this time the latest quarter, rather than Q1 which I used for my primary vote projections the other day.

    This time its seat by seat TPP estimations based on the 2006 redistribution, state weights, capital vs non capital city weights and marginal vs safe weights.

    http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/07/18/pollycide/

    I think I’m ready to call the election.

    I’ve been hesitant to use the Q2 newspoll results on TPP swings because the gravity of what they showed for the Coalitions electoral stocks.They are taking the biggest vote hits in the areas where they have the most seats.Its an annihilation.

  34. Swordfish supports my theory that concervative voters are either uneducacted or selfish and self centred. I think in this case both. Here’s a thought how about taking GST of petrol, instead of double dipping. That would reduce it by 12c in one go. This would have a knock on affect to groceries.
    As for housing put interest rates up a few percent and see where this sends housing prices, they will drop faster than downers pants at a drag show.

  35. Edward, last night I reminded people that it is possible to be ahead in all the polls and still lose the election. That is perfectly true. But *usually* a party which is miles ahead in all the polls a few months before the election, and has been ahead for six months, will go on to win. For Howard to win from here, he would have to pull off the biggest electoral turnaround within my political memory, and I don’t see on what basis, on what issue, by what tactic, he can do that. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I am ready to say it is highly unlikely.

  37. Coalition only winning 12 seats according to Possum??!! Sounds MUCH too good to be true. If it does happen, it would be great!!!

  38. Humor only – no serious comment:

    Perhaps Bryan is missing our company terribly, has called the election, packed up his laptop and spreadsheets and gone fishing?

  40. Possum, I think your prediction formulas need some work. While a ridiculous result like that definitely appeals to you, quite frankly it is absurd.

  45. Sorry folks, I went to edit the column headings on the redistributed TPP (which I brilliantly managed to get back to front) and sent the whole post up in a puff of smoke by pressing delete instead of edit.

    Whoooops.

    Anyway, its back, including with correct headings thanks to, I think, Mark (although I cant tell because I dont have the comments anymore!)

    Ever had one of those days? I wrecked one of my databases this morning, then I spilt my coffee over my scrawled notes, and now I’m deleting my posts.

    I might go to bed.

  47. A-C,
    All those seats obviously aren’t going to fall, but that is what the last quarter Newspoll results suggest is roughly happening.The reason that it is so dramatic is because of the enormous swing in NSW combined with the big swing in QLD, and both combined with the enormous swing in non capital city seats.

    Now some of that NSW and QLD swing may be feeding back into the large non capital city issue (in fact, it probably is), but even if it is, that still only lops a few points off a few seats, and maked other seats elsewhere even larger.

    You cant have a 14.6% national swing towards the opposition in safe government seats without losing vast vast quantities of them, yet Newspoll states clearly that a 14.6% swing against the government has happened in their safe seats as a national average.

  48. ‘No party has won a federal election without carrying a majority of the seats in NSW’, the article says.

    The Coalition won the federal elections of 1951, 1954, and 1961 without carrying a majority of the seats in NSW.

    Is it likely that George Megalogenis would be interested in the correction? If so, what is likely to be the best way of letting him know?

  49. Another promising thing abou the Polls for labor is that Kevin Rudd hasnt really had to jump up and down to get attention on issues and numbers in the polls. Bomber toward the end was always on full volume, tearing up this and ripping up that without much poll movement.

    The other positive for Labor is people in Australia like backing winners, A lot more Aussies followed the Football world cup than they did the qualifying for it, so strong polls will have a snowball effect.

  50. “centaur_007 Says:

    July 18th, 2007 at 2:31 pm
    Swordfish supports my theory that concervative voters are either uneducacted or selfish and self centred. I think in this case both. Here’s a thought how about taking GST of petrol, instead of double dipping. That would reduce it by 12c in one go. This would have a knock on affect to groceries.
    As for housing put interest rates up a few percent and see where this sends housing prices, they will drop faster than downers pants at a drag show.”

    Now Centaur, either you are ignorant or dishonest. No changes can be made to the GST without the consent of all state and federal governments; the Commonwealth controls not one cent of where GST revenue goes. The Qld Government has effectively ended the double dipping by offering a commensurate subsidy on petrol prices; if you want that to happen everywhere then demand State Governments follow Qld’s example.

    It’s also interesting that you have now decided it would be a fantastic idea to lift interest rates. What a way to make mortgagees have the banks foreclose on their properties due to an incapacity to service the debt.

    Evidently neither you nor your socialist comrades support the home ownership aspirations of Australians.

    As for your snide remark about those who happen to sit on the spectrum to the right of Lenin, one would have thought that grocery prices, petrol prices etc all related to the “self interest” of voters. The real issue is people not taking personal responsibility and being disciplined in their spending – JW Howard does not control family budgets. He does, however, continue to reduce the amount of tax they have to pay, unlike prospective Treasurer Swan who will raise taxes across the board.

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