We’re apparently back to the routine of fortnightly Tuesday Newspoll surveys. Tomorrow’s effort shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 56-44 and their primary vote up from 46 per cent to 48 per cent. The increase comes at the expense of minor parties and the Greens, with the Coalition vote unchanged at 39 per cent. Also featured are questions on the government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities (strong thumbs up) and whether troops should be returned from Iraq (two bob each way). The Prime Minister has at least narrowed the preferred leader deficit to 42-43, his best result since February.
…”We all need to remind ourselves, every day, that The Australian is an elite paper which swinging voters in the marginals don’t read”.
True. But while disintermediation is supposed to be the order of the day, a lot of mediation still goes on, even in politics.
The Australian, I suggest, has an impact through the maven factor, especially as an election approaches.
A maven is someone in a social group who is perceived to be something of an expert, someone who will be consulted by peers when a major decision is needed. Buying a new car? You may consult the petrol-head in your circle. Want a new grunty laptop? You are likely to consult your local nerd. If he can’t help, he will consult a super-maven who can. You do not necessarily accept the advice of the maven, but it is a factor. Advertising in specialist publications is often mainly directed at mavens – the advertisers do not expect the readers to buy the products, but to recommend them.
My point is that The Australian is something that mavens or super-mavens read.
So, IMHO, it is a mistake to think that what it says has no relevance to blue-collar swinging voters. Its views in some form are likely to find their way down the chain through the maven factor. Sure, it’s not decisive, and it’s likely to be minor. But a factor nevertheless.
One can argue who exactly the political mavens are. An often unsuspected political maven, IMHO, is The Boss in a workplace. The boss’s views are not decisive, but are an influence.
Mr Squiggle,
Could you please elaborate on your most interesting post?
My impression, maybe wrong, was that the assets test was pretty sharp, ie in practice you were likely to be either in or out. Are you saying now that a lot of people who are now self-supported will get a part-pension, and at the other end of the scale those on a part-pension will double that pension?
Is it going to be paid in September? Or after? Have the beneficiaries any incentive not to pocket the money and vote Rudd?
I hear anecdotes that retirees have tired of JWH’s spin. Can’t imagine why.
Jasmine – didnjasmine_Anadyr Says:
July 10th, 2007 at 4:00 pm
“In Perth we wake up to the mummerings of the formal Liberal Member for Stirling …”
How is Vowels Cameron? Thought they’d pension him off ny now. Best thing about jibberers on the radio is the tuning button.
Now this is good – Max Walsh’s farewell column in the Bulletin. Has always among the more erudite and insightful of the commentariat and he’s saved one of his best for last. Articulates very well what I suspect many of us have been thinking.
http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=277768
With a bit of luck he’ll spend some of his retirement here.
The Oz is amusing these days, but if its ability to analyse a real world situation is representative of contemporary conservatism the fiasco of the Bush presidency is explained. Still the next Liberal government may be a very long way away.
“Tide turns against Labor
“The public rejection of Kevin Rudd in his third attempt to win control of the Senate and Labor’s loss of ten House seats clearly demonstrate that the voters of Australia are unimpressed with his repeal of the job-creating flexible IR laws. They have put him on notice that at the next election he is likely to lose office to a newly invigorated Liberal Party under Malcolm Turnbull if he does not finally cut his ties to the antediluvian union movement.
“The reform process has stalled. The government’s inaction on the latest Centre for Independent Studies Report, Making the Army Competitive, with its proposal to replace the centralised and inefficient public sector army with privately funded mercenary companies that would compete for contracts on assigned sections of the battlefield with key performance indicators such as the enemy kill ratio, is hard to comprehend.
“There are also serious questions over Labor’s economic record, given its failure to get the unemployment rate below 3.2 per cent, a figure far higher than the one Australia enjoyed under Liberal leadership in the 1960s. Time is running out for Kevin Rudd.†(The Australian, ? November 2011)
“Voters punish Labor
“Kevin Rudd’s failure to embrace reform has left him looking at the end of his honeymoon with the voters. Every attempt to win control of the Senate has failed. He has lost a further seven seats in the House. He has continued to endorse Big Government by rejecting the latest Institute of Public Affairs Report, with its farsighted plan to corporatise and contract out on a whole-of-government basis. We accept that Mugabe Senior Citizens Enterprises would not be a suitable corporation to take over the management of Australia, given the difficulties there are with removing it at the end of its contract period, but there are other possibilities such as Bush, Bush and Bush Incorporated, which has paid magnificent dividends in recent years. The endorsement of four-year terms means that by the next election a newly invigorated Liberal Party under the leadership of Sophie Mirabella will be well placed to win and recommence the ongoing reform process to bring greater flexibility to the workplace. Only by cutting Labor’s ties to the unions can Kevin Rudd regain a place in the political debate.†(The Australian, ? November, 2017)
Black Jack – I think it is quite clear how the Australian and the Newspoll act together as a maven. The other news sources take their headlines and arguments as gospel, assuming that they have done the work properly in analysing their data and considering the consequences.
The other papers, radio and TV generally accept what each other do.
The Australian and Shanahan act as agenda setters. Get the story out there and others will repeat it, even if they doubt it i suspect.
Fargo61 Says:
More seriously, can anyone suggest a plausible reason for the odds quoted for the ALP in the seat of Brisbane, which when I last looked were $1.36?
I’m already on that one for $100.
Might as well put $1000 on it, it’s better than an investment fund.
Get on an election on a quiet weekend toward the end of October. Say 20th or 27th. That way School Holidays and APEC will be out the way, but it’ll still give voters a nice (from the incumbent’s point of view) sense of deja vu. I.e. remember 3 years ago? Remember that guy?
Well Chris two can talk about alternate headlines:
Combet’s wrong turn back to the 70’s
New Labor Opposition Leader Mr Greg Combet pledge to return the Labor Party to its core values is a wrong turn which will end in tears for the Labor Party.
Mr Combet’s promises to abandon economic rationalism and explicit disawowal of the Hawke/Keating era and the politics of me-tooism (in a poorly veiled reference to his predecessor Mr Kevin Rudd) is a worrying development for the future of the country.
The refusal of Labor to modernise and indeed reversal of previous modernisations has its closest parallel to the Labor of Evatt and Calwell in the 1950’s. Surely no one can argue that a Labor front bench of 25 comprised of 19 former union officials realistically portrays modern Australia. Although sadly it seems Mr Combet does.
Mr Combet’s policy promises of income tax surcharge for high incomes (those earning over $150,000 per annum) and graduated death duties also promises a return to class warfare in Australian politics. Rightly they should be rejected and stand in stark contrast to the moderate welfarism advocated by Prime Minister Costello and Treasurer Turnbull.
The Australian October 2009?
Love your work Chris …
Don’t forget…
“Hailurton-News Limited (HNL) today announced that The Australian newspaper would cease publication at the end of the week. The Dallas-based newspaper had been suffering steady declines in circulation since mid-2005, when the editorial content and reality began to diverge in what became an unbridgeable gap.
Said Haliburton-News Limited CEO Paris Hilton: `Apparently someone forgot to tell the editors and journalists at The Australian that partisan bile totally divorced from reality was not what consumers wanted from a newspaper … it’s what they want from blogs. With the deaths of the vast bulk of baby-boomers, the market for fantasy-based news has just dried up.’
However, The Australian’s final editor, anonymous-Liberal-Party-Hack (ALPH), was optimistic about the future. ‘There’ll always be crazy people, and where’s there’s crazy people you’ll find us taking their money … or at the very least, employing them to write op-ed pieces for us.’
Haliburton-News Limited shares remain unchanged in slow trading.
AAP – March 2015?
“
Mr Squiggle – welcome to what I believe is one of the best blogs in the business. I’m only going by those polls that show a breakdown in voting. Newpoll do this from time to time. They indicate Howard’s vote is strongest in the plus 55 age grouping. If people are really anti Howard a few more dollars will not do the trick. Where is that budget bounce?
Cameron is fine, highlight of this morning was an inappropriate suggestion involving fingers and their appropriate relocation. Local ABC is almost worth it just for Peter Kennedy’s appearances, even if he does seem a little leant to the right (probably fair enough for WA).
The Bulletin Article was brilliant and tip of my hat to Adam who not so long ago mocked and ridiculed me and my wanting labor branches and members again. Clearly my connection to reality was provided by Telstra that day and was not broadband, as everyone agrees a corporate type machine is better for the Labor (once was a movement) Corporation. Time I got with the programme and bought shares.
My turn:
LABOR WINS MAJORITY IN HOUSE, FAILS TO GAIN MANDATE
The results of Saturday’s election have resulted in a deadlock. While Labor has won 90 seats in the House of Representatives, it has failed to gain a majority in the Senate which will now be controlled by a combination of the coalition and Family First’s Senator Field.
It was that Solomon of Australian Jurispudence, the late Chief Justice Sir Garfield Barwick, who correctly advised the Governor-General, Sir John Kerr, in 1975 that a Government that did not have control of both houses of parliament did not have a mandate to govern.
The first task of the Governor-General, Professor Sir David Flint is to decide who should be his chief advisors. Precedent suggests that when the electorate fails to deliver a clear mandate, the incumbent government should continue to rule. The Australian emphatically calls upon Sir David to continue Mr Howard’s commission.
The loss of the seat of Bennelong by Mr Howard, is no impairment to his continuing tenure as Prime Minister and indeed, it works in his favour. The Constitution permits the Governor-General to choose his advisors from non-parliamentarians, provided that they gain a seat in parliament within 3 months. This allows plenty of time for Mr Howard to replace one of his colleagues in the Senate without causing a costly bye-election in Bennelong.
While the electorate has given mixed messages through Saturday’s poll, it is obvious that the failure of Labor to gain control of the senate shows that Mr Rudd’s anti-reform policies have failed. It is now up to Mr Howard to defend and extend the reforms that Australia desperately needs. This will be difficult given the parliamentary environment, but if anyone can achieve the impossible it is Australia’s greatest ever Prime Minister, Mr John Winston Howard (The Australian ? November 2007)
Astonishingly, Shamaham is back blogging again today, with some confected outrage over his ludicrous interpretations of the polls.
Even more hilariously, he’s still copping it in the comments.
Love your stuff Dembo.
I cant fathom the line coming from the Australian. As someone pointed out, the influence of The Australian in marginals is ‘marginal’ at best. So what is the motivation for this nonsense? All they gain is contempt from those people who can read the polls. Unfortunately The Australian is marred by Shanahan, Sheridan and the editorials. Compare their twisted grasp on reality with the cool analysis of George Meg.
For anyone interested, I’ve just pulled apart that load of piffle coming from the OZ about Preferred PM ratings being leading vote indicators with regression equations.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/07/11/poll-wars-episode-1-–-the-phantom-metrics/
Honestly – what a load of twaddle.
While the GST has broadened the tax base, the quantum reliance on income tax has remained excessive, and inappropriate to a modern economy.
Dr Nelson has recognised the fact in his first Budget. By raising the GST to 17.5 per cent, and by introducing a new top marginal rate of 33 cents, he has introduced a new, durable and welcome balance into Australia’s public finances.
As with the sale of the ABC also announced in the Budget, questions are being raised by the Opposition about the Government’s mandate. Last night on Fox, Prime Minister Howard dealt comprehensively with this, reminding the critics that in the Westminster system a mandate is given after a government has announced and implemented its decisions, not before.
The electorate’s endorsement of Work Choices in December last year proves his point.
Ms Gillard’s apparent refusal to accept what is obvious to everyone else must raise serious questions about her likely tenure as Opposition Leader.
– The Australian, May 2008
NEWS shut off comments for todays article defending the ridiculous from yesterday with (as pointed out by mumble) inaccuracy today – hilarious.
You’ve certainly got talent with stats Mr Comitatus.
Labor to honour Whitlam
Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd announced upon election to government that he would be introducing a new $200 note to deal with the effect of high inflation and economic mismanagement by the Howard Government. The note will feature Gough Whitlam. The Opposition Leader said “Labor is a party that honours its heroes and there is no bigger one for us than Gough”.
Shadow Treasurer Julia Gillard said that a competition would be held to nominate a face for the other side of the $200 note with a particular emphasis on a Your rights at work theme. Yasmine Anadyr from the West Australian ALP corporation has been appointed Balance Commissioner by Ms Gillard to ensure that an “appropriate person” is nominated for the other side of the $200 note.
The Sydney Morning Herald March 2010
What’s interesting is that Dennis Shanahan has cut off any more comments on the way bloggers have reacted to his bias towards Howard.
Only 16 have been allowed through, whereas hundreds were allowed on others. Every one but one had over 100 comments. Must be a sensitive soul.
There’s no question there’s a mood for change in the electorate. There was in 2004 but people did not feel that Mark Latham was right. Rudd is safe.
Of course Howard was going to get a personal lift and that’s what he has been campaigning for. He was also hoping for a poll lift.
Howard has been all over the media during the NT invasion and Rudd has remained relatively quiet, so Howard was bound to gain.
But now Rudd has seized the headlines again in the SMH and Australian with yet another initiative, which according to one instant poll is well supported by the electorate who think supermarkets gouge. Now Howard has to play catch up again.
Also the Iraq war is back in the headlines big time with Bush standing firm and Howard beside him. Howard will want the war to be lost in the election campaign proper.
The truth is Howard will indeed be going either in four months or sixteen months. The question has to be asked: who are Liberals actually voting for as PM? And who do they want if not Howard?
Edwards honey, you know how naming in corps works; surely it will be
ALP (WA) Pty Ltd
jasmine, apparently ALP Pty Ltd is already registered.
“Astonishingly, Shamaham is back blogging again today, with some confected outrage over his ludicrous interpretations of the polls. Even more hilariously, he’s still copping it in the comments.”
But after only 16 comments, his blog has been shut down to any further comments. I guess The Oz could already see another backlash on the way, so they took some pre-emptive action this time.
I really do not understand why they treat their readers like total fools. The arrogance of that paper astounds me – they seem to believe that what they say should be taken with some kind of authority and therefore accepted. Shanahan’s defence of his pro-Howard spin was simply woeful. He doesn’t seem to realise that his readers are not just annoyed at his latest article but by a long string of articles that continually distort and spin the facts that don’t even go close to concealing what is obviously a pro-Howard agenda.
The best thing that Shanahan can do is actually come out and announce that he is planning to vote Liberal, just like Tim Dunlop has done with respect to him voting Labor on his Blogocracy blog. And then this whole charade of trying to make people think that he is being objective and fair when he isn’t can finally be put to rest.
But they simply destroy their credibility by trying to pull the wool over the eyes of its readers.
Thanks for update Jasmine. Peter Kennedy is a gent. Unlike Vowels never took himself too seriously. Certainly never fancied himself as Premier.
Re ALP Inc, back in Bennelong there was an hilarious piece in the local throwaway about Maxine being in trouble because the ALP struggling for numbers in the branches. Really?
These cold damp mornings I often see the hire car (no taxis please) outside Maxine’s new trophy house down the street ready to whisk her off to her next fundraiser – usually interstate. Wonder if she’s on an AWA or an incentive-based fixed term contract?
I really do not understand why they treat their readers like total fools.
There was a bit of contempt in Dennis’ swipe at the ‘armchair PhD’ types or whatever, yet the quality of political comment on the average blog is probably more insightful than his newspaper at the moment.
“The Happy Revolutionary Says:
Astonishingly, Shamaham is back blogging again today, with some confected outrage over his ludicrous interpretations of the polls.
Even more hilariously, he’s still copping it in the comments.”
Even funnier is that after 16 comments it seems that Dennis’ fragile ego has taken enough of a battering for one week:
“Commenting for this article is no longer available, try one of the articles below for more from the Dennis Shanahan blog.”
Chicken.
Now The Australian is “going” Peter Brent and Charles Richardson.
http://www.mumble.com.au
Whatever you do, don’t rock their little boat with facts or anything.
This is getting way beyond farcical.
Bob last happened on kristalnacht
What have I started?
Edward,
I think you are premature with Greg Combet as PM, though any such editorial in The Australian would be as funny as the one you have written.
“Voters deny Rudd mandate
“Kevin Rudd’s honeymoon is over after 14 years – just as The Australian warned it would be. The voters, aching for the reform and workplace flexibility so long denied them, have rejected his bid to outlast Sir Robert Menzies as the record prime ministerial office-holder and granted the coalition a four-seat majority in a landslide. In Mr Rudd’s time in office, he failed to win control of the Senate at any of his attempts and allowed the continually newly invigorated Liberal Party under Messrs Costello and Turnbull and Msses Mirabella and Albrechtsen to maintain the political lead in debate all through his term. He failed to keep unemployment below the 3 per cent that Australia reached in 2012 thanks to the previous Howard reforms. He failed to ditch the dinosaur antediluvian unions, and he left average living standards only 20 per cent higher than when he first snuck into office with a 14-seat majority in 2007. Coupled with an increase in school retention rates to only 95 per cent and only a 25 per cent real increase in the minimum wage, his failure to deliver fast broadband to the final one per cent of the country stuck on 12Mbs explains the voters’ swift rejection of his party.
“The new coalition government will need to act swiftly to change the electoral laws so that the Greens’ balance of power in the Senate is ended once and for all. Labor should see reason and support the coalition to eliminate this party which will frustrate the will of the people by rejecting the mandate given to the Liberals. If Labor will not co-operate, this essential reform to make the Senate more democratic will require a double dissolution and a joint sitting.
“The new PM has announced plans to introduce WorkFreedom. Labor would do well to support this legislation and put aside any misgivings about its not being announced during the campaign as anyone who pays attention to politics knows where the Liberals stand. Labor must now follow the advice given more than once and decouple itself from the backward-looking union movement and commit to ongoing reform which will deliver workplace flexibility and more realistic wage levels to the unskilled. If it does not, it will face decades out of power†(The Australian, ? October 2021)
Whatever your smoking Chris, keep it up, reminds not to take myself too seriously cause i certainly cant take you seriously: you are a dreamer- I like dreamers.
Ironbar’s at it again http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22054205-953,00.html
The Australian has no right to be sensitive about its blatant bias. It is not as though it is subtle. We only need to look back a few days to see hundreds of terrorism related stories – none flew.
Attacking Crikey and Mumble would actually be a dumb thing to do as it will certainly increase its readership by orders of magnitude. Better than paid advertising!
Iron-bar forgets the yellow factor.
Yellow Costello has no guts to tackle Howard and I think he is actually dead scared of being PM, even if for only a few months. Who would want a scardy cat for PM? Like Keating said -you gotta want it bad. They will have to push Costello into the job after telling Mr Howard that he has a medical problem – Lameduckitis.
Good point Kina but the reference to PJK was unnecessary.
Run a regression analysis on 2PP & preferred PM. There’s no relationship.
There is, however, a relationship between Howard’s satisfaction rating and the Liberal 2PP. Howard has in years past pulled the Libs up over 50% – now he’s a drag on them.
To claim that “Howard’s trend lifts him out of the trough” is simply bollocks – satisfaction with Howard was in the 50s prior to the 2004 election. He’s still languishing in the mid 40s. Unless he improves this rating, the Liberals will struggle to win this election.
Also, to look at Howard’s Newspoll satisfaction rating prior to the 2001 election is interesting:
10-12 August 2001 41%
24-26 August 2001 40% – Tampa incident occurs
31 Aug-2 Sept 2001 50%
7-9 September 2001 50% – 9/11 occurs
21-23 Sept 2001 61%
Oh well.
“All political lives end in failure”
Enoch Powell
People often say that about PJK nowadays.
i wonder if this is what killed oz politics ?
Now The Australian is “going†Peter Brent and Charles Richardson.
http://www.mumble.com.au
The Oz is going right round the twist.
Although Mr Shanahan is right on a couple of points today: the first is that Better PM has definitely been narrowing over time, and the second is that approval ratings and better PM do effect politicians behaviour. No-one sensible (I think) would be disputing that. But it’s childish: invent a straw man, knock it down, and announce you’ve won the debate.
The problem with his reporting is that he reports as if opposition leader approval ratings and better PM affect VOTERS behaviour on election day. And the available evidence indicates that is not so. It follows that politicians SHOULD ignore them – and that’s what a sensible political journalist would report. But because Dennis, Mr Carney etc report otherwise, politicians continue to believe in approval ratings as a significant measure of electability.
PS – Kina, Keating didn’t challenge until he had 40% of the party room. Costello has no numbers. He would just have looked like a git if he challenged – thumped 90 votes to 20 or something similar.
I really can’t see a change of leadership happening for the coalition. Wilson Tuckey thinks it can still happen even this close to an election:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22054205-953,00.html
He says that Hawke was installed as a new leader only a month before the 1983 election, which he then went on to win. But the scenario was completely different. This was an opposition party, not a government that had been in power for 11 years. If anything, Tuckey’s reasoning would support the idea that Rudd could be replaced and Labor could still go on to win the election, because just as it was in 1983, the opposition is up against what appears to be a tired government that the majority of people are keen to vote out.
Even Tuckey’s example of Labor replacing Hawke with Keating back in 1991 doesn’t really fit today’s situation because back then, Keating at least had more than a year to refashion the government and reconnect with voters. Costello would only have, at best, maybe four months if he replaced Howard.
In saying all this, I wonder if Tuckey is working behind the scenes to oust Howard anyway, just like he robbed Howard of being opposition leader back in the 80’s?
ENOUGH already about The Australian! If you don’t like it, don’t read it. I don’t, and I am much more relaxed and comfortable as a result.
“Now The Australian is “going†Peter Brent and Charles Richardson.
http://www.mumble.com.au”
All I can say is that The Australian has now shifted from the childish to the infantile. What has Peter Brent and Charles Richardson done other than point out some simple facts that The Australian continues to ignore or distort in order to serve their pro-Howard agenda?
Just a tip. Before posting, refresh the page and check earlier posts. There’s a lot of echos happening here.
Adam, I was motivated to comment by the apparent threats being levelled at online commentators for daring to criticise Shanahan. And it isn’t really ‘off-topic’ in this case.
But you are right, in general discussion of the Oz is pointless.
You wonder what “The Australian” hopes to gain with this sort of behaviour. I have not seen any comment at mumble that could be described as personal about Shannahan. I think he has been quite tame and civilised compared to some of the comments at Shannahan’s blog which might be what has put their nose out of joint. Welcome to the knew world of media Dennis. These days I find his work amusing and uninformative rather than upsetting in anyway.
Labor Preselections in NSW:
Cut and Pastes from the July political briefing:
Lyne James Langley
New England Luke Brand
Macarthur Nicholas Bleasdeale
North Sydney Mike Bailey
Preselection ballot on 14/7
Page:
Isaac Smith
Ian Tiley
Janelle Saffin
Melanie Doriean
Peter Lanyon
Ian Tiley is the Mayor of Grafton. Janelle Saffin was a Leftist MLC. Peter Lanyon was the candidate for Lismore in this year’s election.
I don’t know the others.
Melanie Doriean was the candidate in Ballina. Isaac Smith is an associate lecturer at Southern Cross University. His web site: http://www.rr07.com.au/
I was told yesterday (I don’t know on what authority) that Saffin has the numbers
All I want to say is that the Preferred Prime Minister stat is mostly academic, and is consistently demonstrated to have little effect (if any at all) on primary voting intention.
It really doesn’t seem to do much. At some point, if an Opp Leader is in the low 30s on that rating (as Latham often was), then it’s reasonable to speculate that he’s more of a hindrance than a help to his Party.
But given that Rudd’s Better PM rating actually still exceeds the real Prime Minister’s, I’d say this poll contains nothing but still more bad news for the government. No matter how certain newscorp political editors might choose to spin it.