NSW election live

5.05am. Looks like the Coalition vote continued to build as upper house voting continued into the wee hours, probably putting the final seat beyond the reach of the Democrats, AAFI and Fishing Party. Likely result: Labor 9, Coalition 8, Greens 2, CDP 1, Shooters Party 1.

2.05am. A considered assessment of the upper house from Stephen L in comments.

1.38am. Apologies, I had not noticed other developments in the upper house count: Labor is now looking at nine seats, not eight; and the Liberals’ eighth candidate is currently leading the Democrats, AAFI and Fishing Party in the hunt for the final place. The other seats have gone two Greens, one CDP, one Shooters Party.

1.28am. In fact, the Fishing Party has fallen behind Australians Against Further Immigration, on 45,817.

1.16am. The gap between the Democrats and the Fishing Party has increased to 49,320 to 44,677. May it ever widen.

12.55am. Did kind of okay with my predictions: wrong about Camden, Murray-Darling, Pittwater, Tweed and Wollondilly, the latter two of which I foolishly changed at the last minute. Goulburn, Lake Macquarie, Dubbo, Newcastle, Port Stephens and Maitland are still up in the air.

11.05pm. A little critique of the media coverage. I have been flicking between ABC Television and Sky News, trying to favour the latter because I know most of my audience is watching the former. I wished this had not been necessary because the ABC was greatly superior, despite some very good talent on Sky. No prize for guessing what makes the difference: Antony Green. His presence and authority keeps the coverage focused on the actual election, whereas Sky was forced to fall back on tedious big-picture chat. If Sky hopes to establish its brand among political bigwigs – which seems to be the rationale behind things like NSW Votes 2007 and interactive election night coverage – it should appreciate that such people tune into election coverage for election results.

I got a bit cranky earlier on at the NSWEC for what I falsely diagnosed as a slowly updating XML feed and a "virtual tally room" that did not provide booth results. It turns out there were booth results, but to get them you had to click on a link identified as "Election Night". Why? As for the XML feed issue, this turned out to be limited to one page on the ABC website. So qualified apologies are in order.

Finally, bouquets to my spendid web hosts, Unlimited Space, who got an undeserved cranky email from me this morning and subsequently shamed me with the quality of their response. I am entirely lost for words in attempting to compare their performance with the incompetent scumbaggery I had to suffer from Lycos.

10.38pm. Tony Burke’s guess is that the Fishing Party and the Democrats, but not the Shooters Party, will win upper house seats.

10.29pm. Upper house count trending in favour of the Democrats. Please let it be …

10.26pm. Reader John Thompson, who seems well on top of the Newcastle count, says: "A few more preferences from Newcastle must have come through and put Gaudry ahead of Tate for 2nd place. And therefore Labor will retain. Assuming the indicative count is correct".

10.18pm. The Democrats and AAFI can by no means be ruled out for that last upper house seat; the Fishing Party have slipped a little with another 150,000 counted.

10.10pm. My hurried initial upper house assessment: Labor 8, Coalition 8, Greens 2, CDP 1, Shooters Party 1, Fishing Party (please, no …) 1.

10.04pm. Nearly 1 million votes counted in the upper house, and my prediction of an AAFI win is not looking good: they’re on 1.5 per cent.

10.01pm. Lot of talk still about Port Stephens – they lead 14,118 to 13,610 on the two-party count with two booths to come, but one of them is Tea Gardens, which is a weak booth for Labor.

9.53pm. News flash: Pru Goward now leads in Goulburn on the notional count with only one booth to go, 14,619 to 14,309. And shouldn’t she do well on pre-polls and postals?

9.50pm. Debman is trumpeting swings that have reduced margins to winnable levels, which is true up to a point, but there were also swings to Labor in important seats: Monaro, Penrith and Keira.

9.45pm. Peter Debnam isn’t talking like a man who’s about to surrender the leadership, or who in any way has anything to be ashamed of.

9.29pm. The invaluable Oakeshott Country in comments tells us that Labor’s vote "shot up with last booths to 40%". With Peter Blackmore on 27.1 per cent, he would need an extremely strong flow of preferences to get up.

9.25pm. Kerry Chikarovski’s observation just now of a 9.0 per cent Liberal swing in Lane Cove is not an isolated case. 8.1 per cent in Cronulla; 10.5 per cent in Epping; 10.6 per cent in Hawkesbury; 13.3 per cent in Hornsby; 10.2 per cent in Ku-ring-gai; 7.2 per cent in North Shore; 9.1 per cent in Vaucluse; 8.8 per cent in supposedly endangered Terrigal. These are incredible results, exactly where the party needed them least. Could it be that the Labor’s success in painting Peter Debnam as a Vaucluse toff prevented similar results elsewhere?

9.22pm. Nationals look to be recovering from their scare in Barwon.

9.18pm. Reader John Thompson has emailed me with an extrapolation from the Newcastle preference figures provided earlier by Anthony Llewellyn, which have Tate winning over Labor 13651 to 12695. But as Llewellyn himself notes in comments:"Word is the booth I was at is at the more conservative end of electorate. Pref flows better for alp elsewhere. In which case I may be vindicated in predicting alp retain. Still early days."

9.15pm. Actual two-party figures from Goulburn, with about 15 per cent of the booths still to come, including a few from Goulburn: Stephenson 7955, Goward 7791.

9.10pm. Looks like Pru’s stuffed, if talk on the ABC about a big flow of Greens preferences to the independent is anything to go by.

9.06pm. Geoff Provest credits his win in Tweed to the Casino to Murwillumbah rail closure. Yeah, I remember now, Charles Richardson – that was why I backed him.

9.05pm. Sorry, that Epping swing was based on the premise that independent Martin Levine would run second, which is way off the mark.

9.02pm. Some laughably big swings to the Liberals in their safe Sydney seats: 7.9 per cent in Castle Hill, 9.4 per cent in Cronulla … 16.8 per cent in Epping! Labor now home in Balmain.

8.58pm. ABC computer has independent Greg Piper 0.2 per cent ahead in Lake Macquarie, but there seems to be a perception preferences to Piper will be stronger than this assumes. Several days of fun await us from Goulburn: a double contest, with Labor threatening to beat the independent to second, and a tight contest between Goward and the independent.

8.57pm. Raw figures from Dubbo: Dawn Fardell 14,128, Nationals 14,655, Labor 3,819, CDP 726 votes, Greens 789 votes. Surely Fardell will get up on preferences.

8.55pm. Haven’t said anything about Dubbo for a while. The ABC computer 1.2 per cent ahead, but that may be based on speculative preference predictions.

8.51pm. Some Broken Hill booths finally in from Murray-Darling, and just looking at raw figures it appears the Labor vote has plunged here also (and the population of Broken Hill seems to have gone down by a third).

8.49pm. Nick Greiner on Sky News says he will “take a punt” on independents winning Maitland and Lake Macquarie. Bit of a repeat of 1988 with respect to the Hunter, if nothing else.

8.43pm. More from Leopold on Goulburn in comments: "Goward still 251 votes behind in Goulburn. Two very good booths for Goward, Bowral (3,200 votes) and Moss Vale Central (2,300 votes) yet to report 2PP. On the other hand, Goulburn High (2,500 votes) is very good for Stephenson and is also yet to report. May well not be decided tonight".

8.41pm. Was off line for about six minutes. What did I miss?

8.37pm. Tony Burke on Sky News observes that state Liberal governments have suffered from Coalition control of both houses at the federal level, leaving voters searching for other ways to redress the power balance.

8.30pm. Star comments performer Oakeshott Country says: “The Marrickville and Lewisham Booths are still out. I think Labor will be safe in Marrickville.”

8.27pm. The assessment on the ABC just then didn’t look so good for Labor in Marrickville, but we all know that the ABC computer is less reliable with no Labor-versus-Coalition contests.

8.25pm. Liberals definitely home in Pittwater, almost definitely in Manly.

8.22pm. ABC computer says Labor retain in Maitland, but it might be underestimating Liberal preference flows to Peter Blackmore. It seems Newcastle is down to who finishes second out of John Tate and Bryce Gaudry; if it’s Tate he’ll win, if Gaudry Labor will win.

8.20pm. Thanks to Adam for pointing out that the Nats are under the pump from independent Tim Horan in Barwon.

8.19pm. Big lead for the Nationals in Murray-Darling, but no Broken Hill booths in yet.

8.18pm. I came into Pru Goward on the ABC half way through.

8.16pm. Big reverse in Labor’s favour in the previously interesting Riverstone.

8.15pm. Leopold on Goulburn in comments: “a whopping booth in from somewhere – maybe Bowral, though for all I know it was a bunch of small booths. Unless the trend turns around later in the count, Goward should get home. Anything above 40% primary will be hard to beat under OPV.”

8.13pm. Anthony Llewellyn in comments: “Just finished scrutineering in a newc booth. Pref flows for libs 56 Tate 24 gaudry 16 exhaust 4 mckay. Greens 9 m 8 t 50 g 34 e. Gaudry 15 m 32 t 53 e. Tate 40m 25 g 35e””. Make of that what you will.

8.11pm. Returning to earth now with aggregate vote figures: Labor now down 4.8 per cent. Conspicuously lower lift for the Liberals than the Nationals. Other parties’ gains lower than I would have expected.

8.09pm. Andrew Stoner has conceded defeat.

8.09pm. Labor by no means out of the woods in Port Stephens, only 0.6 per cent ahead with 35.6 per cent counted.

8.07pm. Thanks to Rebecca in comments for calling attention to Lake Macquarie – drat, Antony’s discussing it now. Independent Greg Piper might get up, but it depends on unpredictable preferences. And as Antony says, booths to come are mining areas, so who knows.

8.06pm. Do I have this right – that the independent might lose in Goulburn because Labor might get ahead of him into second place on Greens preferences?

8.04pm. ABC computer’s call of Camden as a Labor gain looks bold – only 0.9 per cent ahead.

8.02pm. But the notional two-party count, which I don’t think you can argue with, shows the slightest narrowing the margin in Goulburn, in absolute if not relative terms – from 303 votes to 294 votes (comparing 4813 votes counted with 8308)

8.01pm. Too much chat on Sky News and not enough results.

7.59pm. Talk in comments about Pru Goward’s primary vote edging upwards. What was that Barry O’Farrell was saying about the Labor exhaustion rate? I only caught the odd phrase here and there.

7.58pm. Big swing still there in Riverstone, Labor leading to 2.6 per cent.

7.54pm. Goulburn notional two-party count has Goward trailing 2,558 to 2,255.

7.51pm. ABC computer has Newcastle down as a gain for John Tate.

7.49pm. No trouble in any of the other Liberal-held seats like Lane Cove, South Coast and Terrigal.

7.47pm. Interesting early figures from Riverstone – a huge swing to the Liberals. The booths are Marsden Park, Schofield and Vineyard. Anyone know about them?

7.44pm. Looking very grim for Pru Goward in Goulburn. I am greatly surprised. Barry O’Farrell pretending to be unhappy.

7.42pm. 4.4 per cent swing to Labor in Penrith, a correction after a big swing in 2003.

7.38pm. New figures at the ABC site: Close in Balmain, but Labor should get over the line. The computer has Labor winning Camden, Keira, Kiama, Menai, Miranda, Monaro and The Entrance. Liberals down as winning Pittwater.

7.38pm. Liberals well ahead in Wollondilly but only 3.0 per cent counted.

7.38pm. Liberals home in Hawkesbury.

7.37pm. Liberals looking pretty good in Manly.

7.36pm. STILL no new results on the ABC site. Liberals apparently home in Pittwater.

7.34pm. Aggregate figures are interesting: Labor down 7.0 per cent on the primary vote with 12.7 per cent counted, although there are a lot of rural booths here and it has been coming down.

7.33pm. Labor doing better than expected in Newcastle, but preferences are wildly unpredictable.

7.32pm. Turns out you can see booth results on the NSWEC site by clicking on “Election Night” on the electorate page.

7.26pm. Nationals chap (only listening, couldn’t see who it was) disagrees with Antony, talking of “a lot of seats that are coming across”. But he might be seeing a better performance from the Nationals than the Liberals, consistent with the Victorian election.

7.24pm. Sky News says the Nationals are well ahead in Monaro, though only from 2 per cent of the vote.

7.23pm. “No signs of Labor losing any seats at all, says Antony, whose figures are half an hour ahead of anything I have access to.

7.22pm. “Menai looking better than Miranda”, says Barry O’Farrell. Antony calls the election. Says Labor have lost Tweed, which is the first I have heard of this. Curse you, Charles Richardson …

7.21pm. Still no new results on the ABC site. Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this the fault of the NSWEC XML feed? If so, they are doing an extremely poor job.

7.20pm. Labor in front in Miranda.

7.19pm. With 10 per cent counted, Pru Goward looks to be in trouble; but this is from Goulburn. I expect the northern areas to do better for her, and ABC talking heads concur. But a downcast Barry O’Farrell is talking of disappointing results at the other end of the seat. This is a big surprise for me.

7.19pm. Peter Blackmore looking very good in Maitland from about 4 per cent of the vote.

7.18pm. First booth in Pittwater has a massive Liberal primary vote; God knows where it is.

7.17pm. Nick Greiner says a booth in Miranda shows an 8 per cent swing with a “good” preference flow and high rate of Greens exhaustion, suggesting a close result perhaps favouring Liberal.

7.15pm. John Gatfield on Sky News is talking about Liberal confidence in Pittwater and a better than expected performance in the Hunter Valley.

7.14pm. Adam Carr hears the Greens are not as doing as well in Balmain as the first booth suggested.

7.13pm. Listening to Sky News now. Liberals looking very good in Miranda; 49.1 per cent on the primary vote from 5.9 per cent.

7.12pm. Slender lead to the Nationals in Tamworth, according to the ABC computer. Primary figures looked okay for the independent though.

7.10pm. Looks like the NSWEC have a slow-updating XML feed, and a website that doesn’t give booth results. The only way of knowing what’s going on is to watch ABC TV.

7.09pm. Chris Hartcher looking okay in Terrigal.

7.08pm. ABC site hasn’t updated for a while; I gather the XML feed is updating in fits and starts.

7.06pm. Early figures from Balmain looking almost interesting for the Greens, though we’ve been here before.

7.04pm. Very early booth in Hawkesbury has Pringle better than I would have expected.

7.02pm. As always, the first booths to come in have mostly been small rural ones; they point to swings to the Nationals in the 3 per cent to 4 per cent range.

7.01pm. Small early swing to the Nationals in independent-held Dubbo; on this indication, it should be close.

6.59pm. Apparently Antony said Labor looking good in Monaro.

6.58pm. Someone on Sky News was talking up Orange. God knows why; Nationals looking safe from independent John Davis.

6.57pm. The Murray-Darling swing to the Nationals is 16.1 per cent, though only from 1.5 per cent. “No particular swing in Lismore”; yeah, Labor looking okay in Bathurst.

6.56pm. General early impression is of small swings, consistent with the exit poll.

6.55pm. Also looking better for Labor in Bathurst.

6.54pm. Looking better for Peter Draper in Tamworth now.

6.53pm. Antony Green has called The Entrance for Labor. Slowly getting back into the loop here …

6.52pm. Sorry, offline for a while there.

6.50pm. Early figures from Murray-Darling look very good for the Nationals.

6.48pm. First very small booth in Camden has the Liberals slightly ahead – I’m just seeing this from Sky News though and it might be a raw figure.

6.44pm. Stephen Loosley talking about losing five seats on Sky News.

6.43pm. First booth in from Tweed, worth 0.9 per cent, shows 6 per cent swing to the Nationals, enough to cost Labor the seat.

6.39pm. Early swing to the Nationals in independent-held Tamworth. Most of the other seats with results in are not of interest.

6.37pm. A very early result from Murray-Darling shows a very small swing, enough to make it lineball.. Labor guy not sounding optimistic.

6.36pm. Antony discussing Goulburn on ABC TV. One very small booth in, and a great result for Pru Goward. Their Liberal talking head (can’t see him) saying another booth is also good. I can’t say I’m surprised.

6.33pm. ABC2 no good to me in Perth – apparently it’s delayed two hours, like everything else they broadcast. But as Adam tells us in comments, you can see it online here.

6.30pm. Bloody hell, no individual booth results from the NSWEC. There’s a tiny country booth in from Murrumbidgee, but no way of knowing which one.

5.38pm. The poll covered Oatley, Riverstone, Wyong, Londonderry, The Entrance, Miranda, Menai, Camden, Port Stephens, Monaro, Tweed and Penrith. The Coalition would have wanted to be looking at a 54-46 lead here to be on the track for a majority, but it’s actually the other way round. The primary vote was Labor 46 per cent, Coalition 41.1 per cent, which sounds disappointing from the perspective of the non-major parties.

5.30pm. Hawker Britton exit poll announced on Sky News, based on polling in 12 key seats, says a 5 per cent swing against Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

326 comments on “NSW election live”

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  1. Do the Greens do better in the more ALP type seats in NSW or Libs.In SA we seem to do better in the more affluent Lib areas

  2. A lifelong campaigner and activist, Freda Brown is a highly respected figure in the history of Australian women’s organizations. She was a Communist Party of Australia candidate for Newtown in 1947 and a Senate
    candidate in 1949 and 1961.

    Highly respected! seems good to me. Not many pollies are respected at all let alone highly

  3. Assuming that the ALP retains Port Stephens, Fardell retains Dubbo and Goward wins Goulburn, the Coalition needs to win seven seats in 2011 for a hung parliament and 12 for a majority in their own right.

    At this stage, current counting (as of a few minutes ago, at any rate) had the new figures looking like this:
    Port Stephens – 0.1
    Miranda – 0.7
    Menai – 2.8
    Wollondilly – 3.6
    Camden – 4.1
    Londonderry – 4.3
    The Entrance – 4.8
    Gosford – 5.2
    Wyong – 6.3
    Monaro – 6.7
    Coogee – 7.5
    Heathcote – 8.0

    An improvement, but still not exactly pleasant reading for the Coalition, which can probably only hope to take power with the help of independents. The ABC projections give a marginally more pessimistic outlook:
    Port Stephens – 0.7
    Miranda – 0.8
    Menai – 2.5
    Wollondilly – 2.8
    Camden – 3.2
    Gosford – 4.4
    The Entrance – 4.9
    Monaro – 6.1
    Wyong – 6.7
    Londonderry – 7.3
    Coogee – 7.5
    Drummoyne – 8.1

  4. Bill,

    Greens do well in Inner City & Eastern suburbs (mostly ALP areas), Northern Rivers (National held seats – 20% in Ballina & 18% in Lismore), Blue Mountains (16%).

    All the results are on Electoral Commission website.

  5. Adam is there more anti Green ALP members in the Eastern States because here in SA there seems to be more friendly relationships between members and voters

  6. If the Coalition can get a 3% swing with Debnam as leader, if he’s not there four years down the track, they might have a shot at picking up those seats.

    Assuming everything else stays constant. Which in politics, is a sure thing.

  7. Mittagong South is a small booth, but good for Goward on primaries, so she should lead by about 400 when it comes in. I agree she should do well on postals. Her, Greg Smith and Mike Baird all entering parliament – some minor good news for the Liberals.

    As for Debnam – the government is back with at most 3 seats lost, and while I haven’t spent the time to do a precise calculation, you’d be looking for a swing of at least 8% for a Coalition majority in 2011. If he calls that a good result, I hate to think what he bad one would look like.

    Surely – surely – Debnam must be rolled and Barry O’Farrell take the leadership job. They would have to be barking mad to hang onto him – oh, I forgot, I’m talking about the NSW Liberals.

    Has anyone got an overall 2-party figure or estimate? 53-47 would be my guess from the primaries.

  8. bmwofoz Says:

    March 24th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
    In Victoria The Greens do best in the inner suburbs and the outer East and around the Dandenongs/Yarra valley

  9. Greens booth coverage is very patchy outside inner city areas. They do better in booths whey they have someone to hand out HTVs. In areas in western Sydney where GRN booth coverage is good their vote improved. The GRNs had for the first time two full time area coordinators working in western and south western Sydney.

  10. Bill:
    I take it you don’t read Andrew Landeryou’s blog ? He’s ALP.

    A comment he made today: ” good luck to all patriots of all parties except the Greens for whom we wish broken legs.”

  11. bill, I don’t know in whose opinion Freda Brown is “highly respected”. Certainly not in mine, or anyone else who really knows her history, I suspect. She left the CPA in 1971 because she remained a hardline Stalinist and rejected the CPA’s criticisms of the Soviet Union, and specifically the invasion of Czechslovakia. She has spent the last 70 years defending Stalin and denying his crimes. If she was a diehard Nazi who denied the Holocaust you wouldn’t call her “highly respected,” yet her position is exactly analogous. Far too many people on the left STILL make apologies for Stalinism and old Stalinists like Brown.

  12. “I guess the Lib spin will be that they have at least cut the margin in Miranda, Camden, Menai, Port Stephens and a few Central Coast seats to under 5%, which is gettable for 2011.”

    So is Marcus writing for Debnam? 🙂

    Is “5 seats under 5% margin” – when next time you need at least 8 for a moral victory and 12 for a real victory – not a pretty weak peg to hang ones hat on?

    “first swing since 1988” was a bit better, but only in a pathetic way…

  13. Thats the thing in the last SA election where i had no no booth coverage my vote dropped by 2 % . . HTV cards can be worth up to 3% here

  14. Hmm,

    Gratified by 53-47 (as predicted by moi) but thought they would do slightly better in terms of seats (1 – 3 more but then agan some were out by less than 1%)

    Must hurt for the Libs to miss out on Miranda and Menai, will be very interesting what Morris does now he has 4 years. I suspect the swing/seats will be irrelevant if the Libs manage to stay united as it will be there time in 2011.

    I suspect if the economy tanks (and therefore GST receipts drop) a lot of State governments will be screaming. I hope Iemma adopts a Keatingesque view of the world and decides to do some worthwhile things with the time he has got (although I doubt it) – after all he will have had 5 years as Premier and a pension to boot – he has a wonderful opportunity given to few people and after all what is the point of Government if you dont actually do something with it – amalgamate local councils, privatisation of electricity, build a truly multi-hub rail system, congestion charging in the Sydney CBD etc etc

  15. Then you will like to know that Freda and Co also spent years denying Soviet anti-semitism. Since the reforming CPA leaders Aarons and Taft were both Jewish this was a big issue in the CPA split of 1971.

  16. Just a thought on Lake Macquarie.
    The electorate contains Cooranbong, the headquarters of the Seven Day Adventists. It is a ghost town on Saturdays.
    My understanding is that SDAs vote but not on Saturdays- i.e. they postal vote. I also understand they vote strongly conservatively (the legendary Michael Chamberlain was the Liberal candidate in Lake Macquarie in 2003).

    The point being that Hunter’s advantage as an incumbent in postal votes may not be so strong and it may be enough to tip the seat to Piper. This is all speculation and I can’t see a trend in the 2003 election – does anyone know

  17. OC,

    Lake Macquarie 2003 – postal votes went 55.11% ALP, 34.48% Lib.

    2003 & 1999 results (at booth level) are on the EC website.

  18. William said:I got a bit cranky earlier on at the NSWEC for what I falsely diagnosed as a slowly updating XML feed and a “virtual tally room” that did not provide booth results. It turns out there were booth results, but to get them you had to click on a link identified as “Election Night”. Why? As for the XML feed issue, this turned out to be limited to one page on the ABC website. So qualified apologies are in order.

    The XML feed on the ftp site worked well, except for the files with the booth data (“EMA”). Here there was a distinct difference between the trials and the real results, inasmuch as before a particular booth had reported in tonight, it appeared in the feed without the candidates’ names. I guess no-one else was using this data, but it sure threw my parser into a loop.

    In the dreaded seat of Manly, TCP votes were delayed until about 10pm. The reason probably doesn’t have anything to do with the fact that some ROs decided to have a cup of tea and cake after they closed the doors and before they started counting. Oncxe all the TCP was in, by about 10:30, Baird is ahead 53:47. Absentees will pull him back, but it won’t be enough.

    Sorry William, but it looks like the Fishers and Shooters and not the Dems will win in the LC. Poor old Arthur.

  19. Bill,

    In 30 plus votes in the Victorian Legislative Council, the Greens have not voted with Labor once. The DLP has done so five times. To put it another way, the Greens have voted with the DLP far more than they have with the ALP. I’m not saying that the Greens were wrong in every vote as several of them are accountability votes, and I expect the Legislative Council to put pressure on the government. But you can see that there is no natural affinity between the Alp and the Greens.

    Nor do I think the ALP’s going “left” is such a good idea, though on some things like PPPs, I would agree with you.

    As Adam implies, there’s democracy and there’s dictatorship, and the communist dictatorships, whether Stalin’s, Mao’s or Castro’s, deserve not one second’s respect or excuse. The same goes for neo/quasi/ex-Marxists like the scum nutcase Mugabe.

    Oakeshott country,

    The SDA delegates were certainly voting on a Saturday at the ALP conference.

    I’ll let you get back to the NSW election, which is not really good news for John Howard.

  20. The mean notional ALP TPP in the seats where they are one of the two, seems to be about 54.5%

    This would be about 1.5% less than what the polls were finally pointing at this morning.

  21. I think people have always overplayed the so called relationship between the Greens and the ALP, I feel this in part is because the media tends to want to simplify the ways of Politics.

    The Greens are to the ALP what the Nats are to the Liberals

  22. ABC2 coverage finished WAY too ealry at 9.30 WA time which means that we never got to see the concession and victory speeches, I don’t know why the ABC didn’t just run the whole coverage live in every state and finish the coverage when the NSW local coverage concluded.

  23. Looking at this result for Federal implications.

    This result is somewhat like the last Victorian Election both had nice swings to the Liberals, but failure to make gains in a climate of post I.R Laws, while Lemma is considered worst than Bracks the result for the ALP was better than the one obtained in Victoria which is interesting.

    Lib/Nats made 7 gains in Victoria and a swing of 3% with much bigger swings in safe seats,
    NSW Lib/Nats made 3 or 4 gains and a smaller swing, considering the Liberals won the Victorian campaign, and the Lemma Government are seen as a joke and this is Howards heartland with the near failure of a high profile Howard person in Pru Groward.

  24. We don’t hear the name Bernie Taft often enough in election savant circles. Props to Adam.

    One thing I’ve been meaning to ask you AC, is it true that Terry Lane once ran for ALP preselection.

    Couldn’t add much tonight that hadn’t already been said except for some idle gossip, but again congratulations to William for his dilgence and attention to detail, to the above election savants and above all else to life-long Labor Right hack made good, Morris Iemma. Now like that other leader of Italian heritage, his priority must be to get the trains on time. Perhaps Mussolini’s methods might be an option.

    And the chap pointing out the Vic Greens voting record is spot on, they are voting with the Libs very solidly, not just more than the DLP but more than sometime Coalition partners, in the National Party.

    Click the link to download John Lenders’ (the patron ministerial saint of election savants btw) spreadsheet showing their voting record


  25. Adam,

    EC website has result after Notional distribution of preferences as:
    HUnter (ALP) 14,799
    Piper (IND) 14,641

    This is all booths counted but no absentee, postals, pre-poll, section etc.

  26. Besides the bleeding obvious that this was not a good result for the libs a few observations on the results to hand:

    1. The North Coast seats all moved away the ALP (Myall Lakes excepted) with an average swing across the region of about 5% and provided in Tweed one of the few gains – was there any issue that provided what was a fairly large swing? Oakeshott your insights would be appreciated.

    2. If the swings are compared between the outer west and south west of Sydney with the Central Coast – similar sorts of demographics, electoral Howardlands at fed level and where similar issues would resonate (transport ALP-, workchoices ALP+), the swings were low in W and SW Syd but noticeably better on the CC. Would this mean that the libs are seemingly more secure in Robertson and maybe Dobell than they would be in Macarthur and Lindsay?

    3. The Sutherland Shire noticeably moved to the Libs though not by enough to deliver Miranda and Menai. A reaction by the ‘white’ Shire to post Cronulla disturbances?

    4. The ALP did very poorly vis a vis the Greens in the safe liberal seats – the Greens outpolling Labor in Vaucluse and North Shore and coming close in Davidson and Ku Ring Gai – a new trend perhaps?

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