Photo finishes

I will use this post to provide ongoing commentary of late counting in doubtful seats over the coming days/weeks.

UPDATE (27/3/07): Christian Kerr points to a slow count in today’s Crikey:

The ever-protracted count for the NSW Legislative Council election is likely to be even slower this time, with the Australian Electoral Commission refusing to authorise any more overtime for the AEC staff engaged for the count. There have been unprecedented levels of cooperation between the AEC and the NSW electoral authorities this election, but after just two days of preparing for the Upper House count over the weekend, the AEC has gone into a panic about the likely level of overtime, and has literally ordered its workers to take a “rest”. Counting will now finish each day at 5pm, with no approval for overtime to complete the count. With Easter imminent, this delay is likely to push back the announcement of the Upper House results substantially. The NSW Electoral Commission is understood to have expected the AEC to finish the Legislative Council count by Wednesday. The AEC told staff that the Electoral Commissioner has been informed that he will have to adjust his timetable. No amended timeframe for the conclusion of the count was suggested. A major outcry from furious Government, opposition and minor parties about the delay in finalising the count for the Upper House count in 2003, marred by slow counting and a total meltdown in the computer software used for calculating the results, saw new procedures adopted for the 2007 election. Efficiency was supposed to have been increased by the use of AEC staff in the count.

Legislative Council

Roy Smith (Shooters) 83,320 0.61
Trevor Khan (Nationals) 57,727 0.43
Arthur Chesterfield-Evans (Democrats) 50,335 0.37
Janey Woodger (AAFI) 46,332 0.34
Robert Smith (Fishing) 45,460 0.34

Sunday 3pm. I’m not doing too well here – I now realise the Legislative Council Summary figures I was just getting excited about have been little changed in the past week. They tell us of 3.3 million votes out of roughly 4 million in total, including 293,240 "other" votes that include (I believe) both informals and below-the-lines. The progressive totals figures show us the destination of 13,566 out of a probable total of about 80,000 below-the-line votes; from these the Democrats have polled 5.6 per cent and the Coalition 17.2 per cent, bearing in mind that not all of these votes will stay within the party ticket. Using these figures to extrapolate the as-yet-uncounted votes, I have the Democrats with a fractional lead over the Nationals’ Trevor Khan, but the margin is far too close (and the method far too crude) for anything to be stated with confidence.

Saturday 11pm. Okay, turns out all that effort on the previous entry was wasted. Because as well as the daily PDF file update, the NSWEC also has on its main page a different count with 3,278,467 votes. This includes 293,240 "other" votes, which probably means about 200,000 informals plus yet-to-be-counted below-the-line votes. There would be about 700,000 further to come. These figures show that the Shooters Party are home, while the gap between the Coalition and the Democrats has narrowed considerably. If the Coalition’s share continues to decline at the same rate as it did between the 1.9 million count and the 3.3 million count, the outcome will be very close indeed.

Saturday 10pm. A further 765,023 votes have been added, bringing the total to 1,938,396 out of a likely 4 million. This has resulted in a significant shift in the aggregate vote from the Coalition (down from 35.4 per cent to 34.4 per cent) to Labor (up from 40.4 per cent to 41.4 per cent). If there was reason to think that trend would continue, Labor’s number 10 candidate Barry Calvert might still be out of the hunt. However, aggregate lower house figures (Labor 39.0 per cent, Coalition 37.0 per cent) suggest that won’t be the case, even when taking into account the Coalition’s traditionally lower vote in the upper house (33.0 per cent against 35.0 per cent in 2003). In the meantime, the drop in the Coalition vote has reduced their surplus over the seventh quota from 0.78 to 0.56, almost enough to return the Nationals’ Trevor Khan to twenty-first place, with the Shooters Party up from 0.53 to 0.55.

Friday 8pm. The NSWEC has published a group and candidate votes report, based on the results of 1,168,246 group votes and 5,127 below-the-lines. The totals in 2003 were 3,721,457 and a bit over 70,000. Ben Raue says the two combined suggest the Nationals’ Trevor Khan has moved up a spot from 20 to 21; if this continues, the final spot looms as a race between the Shooters Party (0.53 quotas), Unity (0.35), the Democrats (0.35) and AAFI (0.30), with the Fishing Party slowly but surely headed for the exit (don’t let the door hit your arse on the way out, Bob Smith).

Friday 3pm. Props to Upperhouse.info for pointing out the following message from the NSWEC: "Legislative Council progressive totals will be provided daily in this directory from the evening of Friday 30 March 2007".

Sunday 5pm. The raw numbers at present look straightforward enough: Labor 9, Coalition 8, Greens 2, CDP 1, Shooters Party 1. However, Stephen L in comments cautiously offers that the Democrats (and perhaps also AAFI and the Fishing Party) might do well enough on below-the-lines and preferences to stay in the hunt against the Nationals’ Trevor Khan, eighth Coalition candidate and Poll Bludger fan.

Lake Macquarie

Greg Piper 12,913 30.3 18,656 50.1
Jeff Hunter 17,294 40.6 18,550 49.9

Wednesday 2am. One more change of lead in the final strait has given Greg Piper a 106-vote win after the full distribution of preferences.

Monday 2.30pm. Another 940 absent votes have produced yet another change of lead, Jeff Hunter now ahead by 65 votes. Antony Green notes in comments that the closest outcome in modern times was the Liberals’ eight-vote win in Coogee in 1973; this was overturned on a legal challenge, and Labor won the ensuing by-election by 54 votes.

Monday 1.30pm. The lead changes again after the addition of 496 further absent votes, which have put Greg Piper 44 votes in front.

Friday 5pm. In an exciting late-count development, Greg Piper has done very poorly from the addition of 1,988 absent votes (23.7 per cent compared with 30.7 per cent overall), which have turned Labor incumbent Jeff Hunter’s 272-vote deficit into a 22-vote lead.

Thursday 10pm. More than 3000 postal votes and about 700 further pre-polls added; still no absent votes. Greg Piper’s lead has changed little, from 263 to 272.

Wednesday 9pm. Excellent account of today’s slow progress from Sally McEwan in comments, along with informed talk of deep Labor pessimism.

Tuesday 4.30pm. Very good call yesterday from Sally McEwan – the second batch of pre-polls has been very similar to the first, barring a slightly higher primary vote for the Liberals. This boosted Greg Piper’s lead by 243 votes; however, 122 "Dec Inst" votes have reeled him in slightly, going 59-15 in Labor’s favour. Piper’s lead is now 263, but with well over 5000 postal and absent votes pending, it’s still too close to call.

Monday 11.30pm. Sally McEwan corrects my previous description of Carey Bay as a conservative area: "Carey Bay pre-poll is different from Carey Bay conservative lakeside waterfront booth … The remainder of the pre-poll votes will favour Piper in the same proportion or greater".

Monday 10pm. Partial pre-poll results have been posted, 999 votes out of what scrutineer Sally McEwan says is about 2000. These votes are "a mix of Cooranbong and Carey Bay", which is to say they include the much touted Seventh Day Adventist community, along with another conservative area. As expected, these votes have strongly favoured Greg Piper, whose 158-vote deficit has turned into a lead of 64. This sounds a little disappointing from Piper’s perspective, because the remainder of the pre-polls will presumably be strong for Labor. Next comes about 3000 absent votes and 2250 postals – these differed only slightly from the polling booth results in 2003, though Labor’s vote was notably a little lower and the "others" a little higher.

Monday 2.30pm. Looks like those Dora Creek votes for Piper stayed missing – his tally there has gone from 533 to 508. No word yet on pre-polls.

Monday 4am. A scrutineer at the count, Sally McEwan, says in comments she can "confirm the expected advantage to Independent Piper from the pre-poll votes from Cooranbong". These votes "will be counted and distributed tomorrow". McEwan also reports that "24 or so Piper votes" from the Dora Creek booth are "missing", "leading to extra State Electoral officers being called from Sydney for a reconstruction of the Dora Creek booth tomorrow".

Sunday 5pm. Labor incumbent Jeff Hunter leads independent Greg Piper by 158 votes. That would normally be difficult to close, given Labor’s organisational efficiency with respect to pre-poll and postal voting. However, Lake Macquarie has the quirk of the Seventh Day Adventist community at Cooranbong, which produces a big flow of mostly conservative pre-poll votes due to its observation of the Sabbath on Saturday. In 2003, Labor polled 795 votes (34.2 per cent) to the Liberals’ 1173 (52.4 per cent) on pre-polls, compared with overall totals of 54.9 per cent and 30.7 per cent. Pre-polls accounted for 5.1 per cent of the total vote; also still to come are the less quirky absent (7.3 per cent) and postal (5.3 per cent) votes. The latter might go a little better for Labor than last time, as consciousness of their danger might have resulted in a better organised postal vote campaign.

Port Stephens

Craig Baumann 17,894 42.5 19,375 50.1
Jim Arneman 17,544 41.7 19,311 49.9

Wednesday 2am. The margin widened to 64 votes after completion of the full preference distribution.

Friday 3pm. The notional preference count has been completed, and it points to a 19-vote Liberal victory. However, a "proper" preference count will now follow, and these can turn up anomalies. For example, the primary vote recount cut Chris Baumann’s vote by five votes and Jim Arneman’s by six (UPDATE: And more pertinently, as Geoff Lambert points out in comments, there were variations of up to five votes at individual booths).

Thursday 10pm. Absent and postal votes are now coming in at a fair clip, and while it’s still extremely close, the trend has been with the Liberals. Antony Green‘s regular updates show how Labor candidate Jim Arneman’s lead narrowed and then disappeared in late afternoon counting, with the Liberals’ Chris Baumann currently ahead by 56 votes.

Tuesday 8pm. Not much progress today: polling booth re-check completed and 213 "Dec Inst" votes added, increasing the Labor lead from 76 to 86.

Monday 10pm. Either Port Stephens has had an extraordinarily high number of section votes, or the pre-polls have been entered on the wrong line – I will assume the latter. There are 1,244 of them and they have tipped the see-saw back towards the Liberals, whose deficit has narrowed from 153 votes to 76. However, the 2003 figures suggest Labor should do better on absent and postal votes. Slow progress on the polling booth re-check for some reason.

Monday 4am. The Daily Telegraph reports confident noises from a Liberal scrutineer, as "many votes were exhausting because of a decision by the Greens not to preference Labor". Conversely, the Australian Financial Review reports that "Labor strategists are sounding increasingly confident".

Sunday 5pm. Labor’s Jim Arneman was 153 votes behind the Liberals’ Chris Baumann at the close of counting last night, but is now 111 votes ahead. Pre-poll and postal figures from 2003 are probably no guide, as the seat was less fiercely contested last time.

Newcastle

Jodi McKay 12,951 31.2 13,793 50.7
John Tate 10,003 24.1 13,430 49.3
Bryce Gaudry 8,774 21.1

Friday 9.30pm. Those two-candidate figures quoted in the Herald have now been posted on the NSWEC site.

Thursday 10pm. Yesterday, the Newcastle Herald told us that "an Electoral Commission notional distribution showed Ms McKay on 13,793 votes and Cr Tate on 13,430". Today it reported that "preliminary counts show that Cr Tate would gain more than 2000 votes on McKay once preferences are distributed". On present indications, that would leave him about 700 votes in arrears.

Tuesday 2am. The NSWEC reveals nothing of the two-candidate preferred count that has evidently been conducted between Jodi McKay and John Tate, but the Sydney Morning Herald reports Tate conceding he is 700 votes behind. Morris Iemma is claiming victory.

Monday 4am. Yesterday’s recheck of first preferences from polling booths has increased Tate’s tally by 18 and reduced McKay’s by 12. The aforementioned Anthony Llewellyn says: "having reviewed the results in total now, my guess is a McKay win over Tate by around 500 … Gaudry will not pull ahead of Tate (of this I am now very confident)". The Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor "has become more confident".

Sunday 5pm. Still anybody’s guess as far as I can see. There is a 2.6 per cent gap between John Tate (24.1 per cent) and Bryce Gaudry (21.5 per cent), which might be closed with preferences from the Greens (11.2 per cent), who directed to Gaudry. Last night’s NSWEC notional preference count assumed Gaudry rather than Tate would finish second; if that is so, Labor’s Jodi McKay will win quite comfortably. If not, the race between McKay and Tate will come down to unpredictable preference flows. Last night, reader Anthony Llewellyn provided a preference breakdown from a booth at which he was scrutineering: if this is applied consistently, Tate emerges ahead with 12,792 votes to 12,327 (not counting preferences from the CDP and three other independents, who collectively account for 915 votes). However, Llewellyn also spoke of better preference flows for Labor at other less conservative booths.

Goulburn

Pru Goward 16,994 39.9 18,632 51.3
Paul Stephenson 10,544 25.3 17,657 48.7

Thursday 8pm. Paul Stephenson has conceded defeat after being buried by absent and postal votes, widening the lead to 975. This entry, and the figures above, will not be further updated.

Tuesday 2pm. A further 670 pre-polls have gone rather better for Goward than the previous two batches, increasing her lead by 10 votes. Even better for her are the 154 "Dec Inst Votes" (declaration and/or institution?), which have run 70-31 in her favour.

Monday 10pm. I was mistaken to say all the pre-polls were in – it was in fact only about half. The newly added second batch was not quite as bad for Goward as the first, but it still cost her another 40 votes or so.

Monday 2.30pm. Pre-polls are in (all of them, or almost all), and they are surprisingly poor for Goward – she has polled 35.7 per cent compared with her 39.8 per cent of ordinary votes, while Paul Stephenson has 30.6 per cent compared with 25.1 per cent. If preferences follow the same pattern, this will narrow the gap by 134 votes to a little over 300. In 2003, pre-polls were 5.6 per cent of the total – still to come are absents (8.8 per cent), postals (5.6 per cent) and a few others (0.7 per cent).

Monday 4am. Yesterday’s recheck of first preferences from polling booths appears to have unearthed 38 extra votes for Stephenson and only one for Goward. It appears that Goward is better placed than it seemed on election night due to an across-the-board increase in "plumped" voting (numbering one box and then exhausting) at this election.

Sunday 5pm. An updated count (polling booths only) has seen Pru Goward’s lead after preferences increase from 311 votes last night to a fairly handy 455. Talk of the Labor candidate beating Paul Stephenson into second place on preferences has faded.

Maitland

Frank Terenzini 14,819 39.7 16,741 50.9
Peter Blackmore 10,093 27.1 16,157 49.1

Friday 9.30pm. The NSWEC has finally unveiled its notional Labor-versus-independent two-candidate preferred, which shows Frank Terenzini a comfortable 584 votes ahead. That wraps it up for my coverage of this seat.

Thursday 10pm. This count has stayed on ice for some reason, at least as far as the NSWEC website is concerned, but the ABC reports Labor is more than 1,000 votes ahead.

Tuesday 2pm. Very slow progress in the count, but Morris Iemma has claimed victory for Labor.

Monday 4am. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor "has become more confident".

Sunday 5pm. As with Newcastle, this is one that will depend on preference flows we don’t know about yet because the notional count was Labor-versus-Liberal, rather than Labor-versus-Peter Blackmore. For what it’s worth, the primary vote figures (Blackmore 27.1 per cent, Labor 39.8 per cent, Liberal 20.1 per cent) are similar to those Pru Goward faces in Goulburn (Paul Stephenson 25.0 per cent, Liberal 39.9 per cent, Labor 22.4 per cent). The difference being that Blackmore will need a strong flow of preferences from the Liberals, while Stephenson will need them from Labor. Can anyone suggest if supporters of one party or the other are more dutiful with respect to how-to-vote instructions?

Dubbo

Dawn Fardell 17,158 41.9 19,270 50.9
Greg Matthews 17,518 42.8 18,590 49.1

Wednesday 8pm. With most postals and about 600 absent votes now in, any remaining doubt is now gone. Fardell’s lead has now widened to 680 votes, or 0.9 per cent. No further updates will be added to this entry.

Tuesday 4.30pm. Pre-poll figures are now up at the NSWEC site, and they tell a different story to the Financial Review – 2318 for Dawn Fardell and 2177 for the Nationals, widening Fardell’s lead to a surely unassailable 521.

Tuesday 2am. It falls to the Australian Financial Review to inform us that "two-thirds of the pre-poll votes have been counted, according to the returning officer. The results have favoured Nationals challenger Greg Matthews, who garnered 1495 of the pre-poll votes on offer while 1453 went to incumbent independent Dawn Fardell". These results are yet to appear on the NSWEC site. However, this makes only a modest dent in what had been a 401-vote lead.

Monday 2.30pm. Re-checking of polling booth first preferences has now been completed, giving a 42-vote boost to Dawn Fardell. Most notably, 37 votes have been deducted from the Nationals at the Forbes booth.

Sunday 5pm. Independent candidate Dawn Fardell leads Nationals candidate Greg Matthews by 401 votes. The precedent of 2003, when then-independent member Tony McGrane did somewhat less well on non-ordinary than polling booth votes (from a near identical vote total to Fardell’s), suggests this could yet narrow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

542 comments on “Photo finishes”

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  1. The NSW system seems to work well. Processing time was about 40 minutes and the result in terms of who was elected, and when, seems to be exactly what was expected based on a simple ranking of above the line primaries from about 11 pm on election night.

  2. Well, I have some research to do this evening at the NSW State Library on the 1872 NSW election, then the rest of this week is Federal Election graphics design. Couple of publications for State Parliament on the election results coming up over the next few months, but I’ll talk to the Electoral Commission about the data sources for that next week. Lots of preperation for the Federal election, and the WA and QLD state redistributions. Plenty to keep me going for the rest of the year. Holidays will be next year, not this year.

  3. Oh well, congrats to those that participated! The word on the street is that ACE will run for NSW Dems preselection at the 2007 campaign.

  4. I guess ACE could always go back to defacing billboards – that would be more productive and useful than being a Democrats Senate candidate.

  5. Well done to Trevor. That makes twice in my life I have congratulated a National – the first was John Forrest when he resigned as whip over the immigration bill. I must be getting soft in my old age.

    ACE is probably the best-known Democrat in NSW (where is Aden Ridgeway now?), but he has as much chance of being elected to the Senate as I have of being elected to the Qld Legislative Council.

  6. I hope all of you will understand that I am exhausted…I have not had a good night’s sleep since th election. I am shortly going to bed.

    I was told that ACE was at the count and was distressed. If that is is so, I genuinely feel for him…not only are we two old Wollongong Boys together, both the sons of doctors, but also both committed in our own ways to advancing the interests of the people of this state…I am sure he still has a lot to offer.

    As I say, I am buggered….I thank you all, and I will be back soon.

    Trev

  7. Interesting you should say that, Adam. It had occurred to me that if he were interested, the ALP could certainly do a lot worse than to approach Ridgeway. Do you think he’d consider jumping to a major party now that the Democrats appear extinct?

  8. Bill, you’re very critical of the type of people that are getting ALP preselection. Surely you’re not ALSO critical of suggestions of talented outsiders to approach?

  9. I’m critical of candidates that don’t live in the area from a pro company union and rides on the back of people like myself who promote YR@W. As for talented outsiders why go that way again? What happen to the last Demo the ALP took? Its been mentioned by a few on these lists before what is needed is some “ordinary” people in government not union bosses, Stars, or Millionaires

  10. Congratulations Trevor, I really wanted ACE to win as I saw it as one of the very few chances the Democrats have of making a comeback and I think Australian politics needs them. However, I have been very impressed by your comments on the site, both in style and content.

    Although at the moment I have less in common with National policies than Labor or Liberal, I think that as a smaller party they are far more likely to be influenced by a few individuals, and where good people in Labor tend to struggle to make an impact I look forward with a lot more confidence to you making a difference to the Nationals party culture.

    (And I’m very glad the AAFI did not get a look in – or Fishing for our host’s sake).

  11. Adam Says:
    I hope Trevor doesn’t share the political views of his great-uncle Genghis. Perhaps he can tell us when he has had some sleep.

    YOU really cant help yourself can you Adam?

    When in doubt pull out the race card – thats what the political text book says doesn’t it. So what if Trevor’s ethnic background isn’t British ?

    AND Adam – I actually know Trevor – not in his capacityas a politician but in a prior life in his occupation as a lawyer – and i would hardly describe him as a “red-neck” as you infer without having met him or knowing anything about him.

    BUT then you really are brave – you wait until he goes to bed before launching into your snide remarks. ~END~

  12. Oh do grow up, Alex. I neither know nor care what Trevor’s “race” is (not a concept I like much anyway). And nor did I say or imply (which I think was the word you wanted) that he is a “redneck”. I assume he is a conservative, and I’m not, but I haven’t directed any political comments at him at all since he’s been here. I enjoy a well-turned insult but spare me this level of childish political correctness.

  13. Bill

    Would you prefer another union boss, or someone who had life experience involve in politics. I had heard Aden Ridgeway speak many times, and it is my believe he belongs in Federal politics. He is smart, articulate and has a good grip on reality and he would make an excellent addition to parliament, whether it be an Labor/Coalition/Democrat candidate.

    In my opinion, he is one of the few who had any sense in the whole Democrat party

  14. Alex, Be kind to Adam, Adam only knows 2 groups of people in the whole world – Union leaders and ALP parliamentary members……. Wait, that would only be one group of people. Anyone else is just “foreign” to him 🙂

    Trevor, congratulations, we need more different group of people in parliament, not just machinated drones that often forms the Labor and Liberal party. From what I have read here, you will be a great addition to parliamentary.

  15. ADAM – I do really want to assist you so that you can make informed comment in the future.
    Go to your friendly newsagent and get a copy of todays (11th April) Northern Daily Leader.
    It has a full coverage of Trevor Khan.
    Front page story plus pic, a profile and an opinion piece.

  16. Pendulum update: Based on final prefs distribution. ALP now loses its majority with a 5% swing (Gosford and The Entrance) but the Coalition needs 7% (Wyong) to win outright.

    Anyone on the Central Coast need a new road, school, hospital, sports facility?

    Start on your wish list because your chances will be pretty good come 2010-11.

  17. Saturday Nite Fever

    There was some discussion here during the recount about how much the final result might differ from the Saturday Night implied result, due to changes in the patterns in non-booth votes and possible miscounts in the booth votes.

    Leaving aside those seats where the Notional TCP candidates differed from the final TCP candidates (and there were some of these in perhaps unanticipated electorates), the average change in numbers for the Saturday night counts between Saturday and Declaration Day look like this:

    Avg Min Max %age
    Booth Primaries change 48 0 622 0.13%
    Total Booth TCP change 110 0 922 0.36%
    Booth Cand. TCP change 74 0 512 0.14%
    Non-booth TCP advantage to conservatives 1.37%

    There was no significant difference in these changes between hotly-contested seats and walkover seats, implying that the scrutineering intensity doesn’t have a big effect on miscounting on Saturday night.

    These numbers would make predictions based on Sat night TCPs a bit more uncertain than mere statistics would point to.

  18. Presumably as he is a member of parliament, he must be an Australian. (and I thought Port Macquarie was stuck in the 1950s) Geez!

  19. “What nationality is Trevor?”

    Interesting that this question keeps coming up…indeed it has come up throughout my life….I’ve got past the point where it causes me any offence.

    Below is one of seventeen sets of questions put to me by my local paper, together with my reply…it deals with a similar theme.

    Read on, Trev:

    2. What is the origin of your family name, Khan? Do you have Indian/Pakistani heritage? If so, to what extent did that influence your upbringing?

    My paternal grandfather Fazzee Gulam Mohammed Khan, came from the Punjab, northern India in the 1890’s. My grandmother Grace Kelhear, married him late in his life and bore him a number of children. Fazzee passed away in 1944, well before my birth.

    It is safe to say that my father’s memory of his early life are not entirely happy. My, father at least in part, defines himself by reference to the circumstances in which he grew up, that is as an anglo-Indian, living in fairly straightened circumstances, during the depression years in Surrey Hills, Sydney.

    From my perspective the experiences of my father reflect on to me.

  20. Sorry I let this thread get so long, everybody. I’m really feeling it now I’m having to put up with dial-up internet. Also, apologies for dropping the ball on the later stages of the upper house count – fortunately, the comments thread pretty much did the job for me. Thanks to all concerned, and congratulations to Trevor.

  21. oakeshott country Says:

    Presumably as he is a member of parliament, he must be an Australian. (and I thought Port Macquarie was stuck in the 1950s) Geez!

    I meant no offense to Trevor i am actually interested in peoples heritage etc. I gathered he is Australian and was speaking about his ancestors.
    No Hanson here

  22. As Trevor says: He is past the point where this causes him offence.
    I believe that someone having a “funny name” does not excuse the implications of your question.

    To me it does however, indicate the nationalism/xenophobia implicit in much of the Green Movement in the west. My argument is this: People of the western world are the most affluent in the history of the world. They have achieved this affluence with a complete disregard to the environment and plundering of the natural wealth of the rest of the world – Europe no longer has significant forests and has the greatest population of all the continents.

    Meanwhile, the third world, despite its inherent wealth of resources, lives with endemic disease, a lack of food, fuel and drinking water. The green movements response is to attempt to stop the third world developing – e.g. Don’t cut down trees in Brazil so that you can feed your family, Don’t dam that river in India for irrigation, power and clean drinking water because you’ll upset the tigers who live in the area, Don’t have more than two children – even though infant mortality is shamefully high and children are an investment for your old age.

    In fact don’t do what I do but do what I say and don’t expect us to share our wealth because of your restraint. Greens as watermelons? More like fascists for mine.

  23. Actually I have read your web site and I gather that the Greens think that motherhood is, in general, a good thing.

    Apart from feeling warm and fuzzy I couldn’t find any answers to how the third world can use its resources so that its population is fed, watered, clothed, housed and free of malaria.

  24. oakeshott country Says:

    Apart from feeling warm and fuzzy I couldn’t find any answers to how the third world can use its resources so that its population is fed, watered, clothed, housed and free of malaria.

    Gee i think the removal of capitalist plunder of the third world would be a good start. And maybe less profit motivation by the west. We produce enough now to feed and clothe the world yet we would rather throw it away.

    oakeshott country Says:

    As Trevor says: He is past the point where this causes him offense.
    I believe that someone having a “funny name” does not excuse the implications of your question.

    Did i said he had a funny name? In fact for everyones information i have only seen him as Trevor until someone said about Genghis then i noticed his last name. As i have a vast library on both political and Indian religious topics i then became interested in his ancestors. To hint that i am racist is very disappointing as anyone who knows me can tell you i am the total opposite.

Comments are closed.

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