As promised quite a while ago now, here are charts tracking New South Wales state opinion polling by Newspoll and Roy Morgan during the current term. These have been numbered to identify the approximate timing of the following events:
1. Caucus revolt over pokies tax (Aug 2003)
2. Claims of harassment by whistleblower nurses (Nov 2003)
3. Redfern riots (Feb 2003)
4. Clover Moore elected lord mayor of Sydney (Mar 2004)
5. Orange Grove affair; Bob Carr rebuked by ICAC over health inquiry (Jul/Aug 2004)
6. Federal election (Oct 2004)
7. Treasurer Michael Egan retires; Macquarie Fields riots (Jan/Feb 2005)
8. Bob Carr retires; John Brogden resigns (Jul/Aug 2005)
9. “Triple M” by-elections; RTA chief executive forced to resign (Sep/Oct 2005)
10. Liberal defeat in Pittwater by-election; Cronulla riots (Nov 2005)
11. Deficit budget (Jun 2006)
12. Carl Scully resigns (Oct 2006)
13. Milton Orkopoulos charged; Peter Debnam raises claims against Bob Debus in parliament (Nov 2006)
There have also been three polls conducted by ACNielsen since the middle of last year:
A big thank-you is in order to regular reader and stats guru Geoff Lambert for providing me with the figures, and also with a chart illustrating his very interesting contribution to comments five days ago (note that this was before Tuesday’s Newspoll and ACNielsen figures):
Swing â€¦ what swing? The last two years of polls in NSW before the 2003 election showed an upward drift in the ALP TPP which, when projected forward as a linear regression to the election, gave a TPP of 59.6%. This was calculated on the basis of Newspoll+Morgan+Nielsen polls. Over that two years, the ALP TPP grew by about 0.07% per month. The actual election returned an average TPP of 56.2%, an error on prediction of 3.4%. This was due mainly to a â€œdroopâ€ occurring from about December 2002.
In the two year period 2004-early 2007, the upward drift of the ALP TPP is also about 0.07% per month. Projected to election day, the line points at a TPP of 58.6%. So far (to Jan 2007) there is no sign of a â€œdroopâ€, indeed the ALP TPP seems to be inching up even faster. But, if we DO get a 2002/2003-type â€œdroopâ€ (3.2%) from the polls done in early 2007, the TPP on election day would be 55.2%, a swing of 1% against the Government and lead to a loss of zero seats, if evenly distributed. Recent Iemma schemozzles might enlarge the droop. It needs to be about 6.3% average before the Govt. will start losing seats. Sounds like a big ask.
There are no Nielsen numbers in the 2004-2007 data. Nielsen has a long time record of posting lower ALP TPPs than the other two.