Nowhere fast

The Sydney Morning Herald has just previewed a poll to be published tomorrow which shows Labor leading 57-43 in New South Wales. This hardens my impression that, for all the government’s extensive list of negatives, the Coalition will make very few inroads at the March 24 election. I will now set to work on charts tracking opinion poll results through the current term and add them to this post when I have finished. In the meantime, you might like to take another look at my election guide: seats on the Labor side of the table down to and including Heathcote have been brought up to date with photos, further candidate information and, in some cases, analyses of booth variations.

UPDATE: It’s even worse for the Coalition in Newspoll – Labor leads 59-41, "its best result on the two-party preferred measure since the eve of former premier Bob Carr’s third election victory in March 2003".

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

104 comments on “Nowhere fast”

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  1. “As for “As Mumble puts it, ’something is afoot in the Australian collective psyche’.” I agree and I”ve already stated what I think it is – something you reject. ”

    I reject your version because state Labor is getting worse results now than it was before WorkChoices was introduced. Labor’s results (Rann and Bracks particularly) have been a bit down on previous performances. Beattie had a result similar to Carr in 2003, but the Queensland economy (house prices, jobs) is roaring ahead right now, and there was a small issue named Bruce Flegg. Bracks was returned with a big majority because that is what voters have been doing with state Labor governments seeking their 2nd re-election. He lost an unusually high number of seats and got an unusually low vote – that is what requires some explaining.


    The way I recall the polls, they varied between a Labor 2PP of 53 and 56.

    And what I am saying is not that anything Gallop would do would effect votes in Victoria, but that (essentially) state election results in the last 8 years have had little to do with individual state issues, or with the qualities of leadership on display from either, but with a collective state of mind that has led to essentially duplicated results in state after state after state (and territory, for that matter). It is a question of national mood. To say that Beattie, Carr, Bracks, Rann and Bacon all followed exactly the same electoral scripts, but somehow it was all some coincidence because of specific individual factors in each case is to stretch credulity past breaking point.

  2. PS – Your case requires the Bracks government to have been more on the nose – a lot more on the nose – than the Carr government in 2003. Do you really believe that?

  3. Geoff R,

    at the last UK election the tories had a 1% growth in the vote but picked up 30+ seats (by memory, could be more)

    the do you think what im thinking angle was very effective.

  4. Leopold – I’m afraid we are not going to agree on this. I can’t add anymore to what I’ve already stated. I’d just be going over old ground. Thanks for the debate. Time will tell I suppose.

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