Six weeks after the previous survey prompted The Australian to carry a front page headline reading "ALP faces poll rout in the west", it appears the elastic has snapped back. Yesterday’s Newspoll had the parties even on two-party preferred, with Labor up 7 per cent to 42 per cent on the primary vote and the Coalition down 6 per cent to 44 per cent. Labor’s figure is 3 per cent higher than any Newspoll result since the election of the Gallop government. The other remarkable fact is that despite the Coalition’s slump, it’s also their second highest result in that time. If the figures are accurate the non-major party vote at the coming election will fall by more than half, from 28.4 per cent to 14 per cent. All minor parties are affected – the Greens’ 6 per cent is their worst result since June 2002 and compares with their 7.3 per cent at the 2001 election; the Democrats have sunk beneath 1 per cent to score a "statistically insignificant" rating for the first time; and One Nation are clearly destined to lose all but about 1 per cent from their 9.6 per cent in 2001. Despite what my hit counter says, Western Australian voters have clearly been paying too much attention to this website because 43 per cent expect the Coalition to win against 36 per cent for Labor, although the Coalition had an even bigger lead on this measure going into the last election.
