Labor in decent poll shocker

The Sunday Times has turned in a handy poll showing Labor ahead in Geraldton and Mindarie but heading for a drubbing in Swan Hills, although a collective sample of 450 suggests the results should be treated with caution. Unusually the report provides two-party preferred figures without distribution of the undecided – had this been done the results would have looked a little something like this:

Geraldton 49 41 9 54 46
Mindarie 44 37 18 54 46
Swan Hills 32 52 15 39 61

The results runs counter to the prevailing wisdom in that Labor are ahead in regional Geraldton and behind in suburban Swan Hills. Earlier reports suggested that the Liberals had been disappointed by recent polling in the latter electorate, while no less an authority than Paul Murray reckons psephologists should classify Geraldton as being held by an imaginary Liberal member and not by Labor’s all-too-real Shane Hill.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.