Late polling

Taken together, there’s an impressive symmetry between three of the late opinion polls – Newspoll has it at 50-50, Galaxy have the Coalition ahead 52-48, while ACNielsen continues its recent trend of stronger showings for the Coalition with a remarkable 54-46 split and Coalition primary support at 49 per cent. Only Roy Morgan bucks the trend, reverting to its traditional ways with a 51-49 lead for Labor, though the state of play in the marginals is such that such a result might not win them the election. Yesterday the Courier Mail ran TNS polls for Queensland marginal seats (sample sizes about 300 each) that had the Coalition leading well in every one – by 56-44 in Herbert, 61-39 in Hinkler, 56-44 in Longman, 59-41 in Dickson, 53-47 in Moreton. They also covered Petrie but appeared not to provide a result, although Liberal member Teresa Gambaro was apparently in the clear. The Gold Coast Bulletin also ran a poll for the Brisbane Labor seat of Rankin that had Craig Emerson set to hold on with 42 per cent of the primary vote (after distribution of the undecided) against 40 per cent for the Liberals. They also spread their tentacles across the border with a poll of the New South Wales border seat of Richmond that had Nationals member Larry Anthony on 42 per cent (again after distribution of the undecided), Labor’s Justine Elliot on 36 per cent and the Greens on 15 per cent, which would give Labor a slight edge in a seat they desperately need to win. Sample sizes here were around 450.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.