It’s a shame about Roy

This time a fortnight ago, just before the announcement of the election, visitors to the Roy Morgan website were met with the confident declaration "ALP Would Easily Win Election – Not a Conducive Time for L-NP to Call the Election". The organisation obviously expected its advice would be heeded as it went about its normal business that weekend, conducting the first half of its regular fortnightly face-to-face polling with the other half to be completed the following weekend. The results it released yesterday have thus arrived in the manner of a visitor from another planet, including many responses taken before the election was called and none from after Labor’s tax announcement on Wednesday. By any measure its findings are remarkable – Labor has 56 per cent of the two-party preferred vote despite a reasonably modest 43 per cent on primary, no doubt assisted by preferences from the Greens who have broken through the 10 per cent barrier, perhaps for the first time ever. The Coalition is on 38.5 per cent, its lowest level since early February. Gary Morgan presented the findings fairly cleverly, saying "until the bomb in Jakarta the ALP looked set to win the federal election. The bomb in Jakarta has essentially reset the clock". It’s a plausible argument that distances him from findings which run counter to those of every other polling agency.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.