Judgement day

Entries to the New South Wales election guide have now been appended with predictions; taken together, these point to comfortable Labor majority with 52 seats out of 93, down from 55 at the last election. The Liberals are tipped to go from 20 to 21, with the Nationals steady on 12; eight seats are down for independents, compared with six in 2003. I do in fact anticipate a fairly solid drop in the Labor primary vote, particularly in Sydney, and for a lot of fat to be trimmed from Labor two-party margins. However, this will not produce a big haul of seats because of the lack of low-hanging fruit. Camden is rated as the sole metropolitan exception, due to the profile of the Liberal candidate (local mayor Chris Patterson) and the substantial boundary changes that will curtail sitting member Geoff Corrigan’s incumbency advantage. By contrast, I am tipping the new seat of Wollondilly to go Labor’s way despite a smaller margin (4.6 per cent compared with 8.7 per cent), due to a) their coup in landing formerly independent mayor Phil Costa as candidate, and b) its location in Sydney’s semi-rural hinterland, which I imagine will make public transport less of a factor. Elsewhere in Sydney, the verdict on Penrith, Drummoyne, Menai, Miranda and Londonderry is "close but no cigar".

Outside Sydney, I am tipping the Nationals to gain Tweed while suffering a notional defeat in Murray-Darling, where Peter Black’s larrikin charm will reverse the effects of a redistribution that has put him 1.4 per cent behind the eight-ball. My assessment is that there will be a net decrease of one in the number of independents, if you include Steven Pringle in Hawkesbury and Bryce Gaudry in Newcastle (respective Liberal and Labor members who quit their parties after preselection defeats). Former Liberal member Peter Blackmore is marked down to win Maitland from Labor, while John Tate gets the nod in Newcastle (although it was a tough choice between him and Gaudry). The Liberals will finally recover Manly due to the appeal of their candidate Mike Baird and the low profile of the incumbent, David Barr. Sitting independents in Pittwater, Dubbo, Tamworth, Sydney, Northern Tablelands and Port Macquarie are tipped to be returned; I state this with great confidence in the latter three cases, but am less sure about the first three.

Damage control

One more round of Campaign Update’s before I take the plunge tomorrow (by which I mean today, it being 3am) and post my predictions:

Lane Cove (Liberal 2.8%), South Coast (Liberal 1.6%) and Epping (Liberal 7.6%): Despite last week’s public transport nightmare, pundits are increasingly turning their attention to seats held by the Liberals. Anne Davies and Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald report that "a Young Liberals ‘flying squad’ has been sent in to help the seat of Lane Cove, as the party moves into damage control to protect its marginals in the final week of the election". Liberal member Anthony Roberts is said to have been "hurt by a report he was asked to leave the Longueville Hotel following an incident", which he denies. The report also says the Liberals are now concerned about South Coast, having rubbished confident talk from the Labor camp earlier in the campaign. The two parties have found a new source of disagreement further up the pendulum, in Epping; Labor reportedly believes vote-splitting between Liberal candidate Greg Smith and independent Martin Levine might deliver them an upset, which is "dismissed as fanciful by Liberal campaigners". Also mentioned are Terrigal and Goulburn; Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph concurs that "MPs are talking about possible losses in Terrigal, South Coast and Goulburn".

Sydney (Independent 15.0% versus Labor): Clover Moore continues to get a hard time from Imre Salusinszky in The Australian. On March 5, Salusinszky reported Moore had potentially breached parliamentary guidelines by using her electorate allowance to "spruik achievements from her other role as Lord Mayor of Sydney". This time she faces "a former campaign insider accusing her of hypocrisy over donations from property developers". In other inner-city news, an assault complaint brought by independent Malcolm Duncan against glamorous Liberal action man Edward Mandla has been given way too much media coverage. Writing in the gay and lesbian magazine SX, Sydney blogger Sam Butler describes the avowedly gay-friendly Mandla as "powerfully built, with exfoliated and moisturised skin, distinguished grey hairs and a handsome smile … an ideal ‘Daddy’ fantasy for many of the otherwise politically-ambivalent twinks residing in and around Stonewall". One wonders if the Stonewall twinks’ ardour for older authority figures extends to Fred Nile; as with all other Liberal candidates, Mandla’s how-to-vote card suggests voters might care to give him their second preference in the upper house.

Newcastle (Labor 15.4%): Morris Iemma was up against it yesterday when he visisted Newcastle to shore up the floundering campaign of his personally chosen star candidate, Jodi McKay. As well as being ambushed by ferals, the Premier had to face the embarrassment of McKay’s inability to identify the Premier of Queensland. The Poll Bludger had previously felt that McKay had a better chance than was commonly believed, due to the split in the independent vote and the likelihood that most of these votes would exhaust. This theory is now harder to sustain, presenting the dilemma of who to back out of lord mayor John Tate and Labor-turned-independent sitting member Bryce Gaudry.

Technological inexactitude

I have had a few people complain recently about comments failing to appear, and have upgraded to the latest version of WordPress in the hope it might solve the problem. I am inevitably encountering a few teething problems, one of which should be immediately obvious. Can any of my more technologically minded readers work out why my header won’t appear? I have uploaded it here, which I’m reasonably sure is where I kept it in the good old days.

UPDATE: Things are now back to an acceptable state. Many thanks to The Speaker for his efforts in bringing the house to order.

Top secret

The arrangements that govern public disclosure of how-to-vote cards for New South Wales elections have to be read about in depth to be believed. Antony Green explained it thus on this site yesterday:

If you are on the electoral roll for a NSW district, you will be allowed to visit your local Returning Officer on Saturday and examine registered material. But you cannot do it beforehand and you cannot look at it unless registered for that district. Parties are currently distributing pre-poll how-to-vote cards, but this does not mean the same preferences will be recommended on how-to-votes on Saturday. As for lower house preferences, you are only allowed to examine how-to-votes for your own district. The law prevents you from looking at how-to-votes in the other 92 districts. And access is only allowed on Saturday during the hours of polling.

Some further elaboration from Antony in today’s edition of Crikey:

Remember last November when the Liberal Party directed preferences against inner-Melbourne Green candidates in pre-poll voting, but on polling day recommended preferences to the Greens. Many candidates may play the same trick in NSW. As in Victoria, all how-to-vote material must be registered and approved. Unlike Victoria, there is no public access to the material before election day …

Now let me plead self-interest here. On Saturday, I’d like to know as much as I can about how preferences might flow. In other states that register how-to-vote material, the answer is to visit the Electoral Commission and examine the material. In NSW, that is not allowed. Instead, on Saturday I will visit the Returning Officer for my own electoral district of Marrickville, where I will be allowed to examine material registered for Marrickville, and registered material for the upper house. The law prevents me from examining material for any other electoral district, even if I visit those offices.

The stupidity of the laws may yet create a farce on Saturday. The problem is, how will party workers know that material being distributed by other parties and candidates is correctly registered? The answer is, they can’t. The only legal access to the material is in the office of each Returning Officer. The material cannot be examined in polling places. So if a candidate is handing out dodgy how-to-vote material in Deniliquin this Saturday, the only way anyone can check this material is registered is by checking with the Returning Officer in Broken Hill, several hundred kilometres away.

Also on this site, Antony politely described as "silly" the contrast between how-to-vote card secrecy and the availability of each candidate’s four-page child-related conduct declaration form on the Electoral Commission website. Owing to a populist afterthought by some underworked legislator, the Commission has been required to waste hundreds of megabytes and God knows how many hours of labour in publishing 793 of these identical forms, which are of no conceivable interest to anybody.

Idle speculation: 61-39 edition

Via Lateline (which will not be broadcast for another two hours in the Poll Bludger’s remote western outpost), Blair in comments informs us that Newspoll has jumped on the 61-39 bandwagon set in train by ACNielsen and Morgan. An appropriate note on which to open another exciting new instalment of Idle Speculation.

Debnam’s curve

Last Tuesday’s post on Peter Debnam’s pitch for sympathy by portraying himself as something less than an underdog might have been ahead of its time. He was then only going so far as to say the election should be seen as a chance to "send Labor a message". On Friday, he upped the ante by declaring: "the Labor Party is going to win the election in a week. If the polls today are correct, they’re about to win the election and you’re about to get another four years of the same". Compare and contrast this with the 1996 statement from Geoff Gallop, then the WA Opposition Leader, cited in the earlier post: "Information I have seen in the polls throughout this campaign indicates the Court Government will be returned comfortably on Saturday". Brad Norington and Imre Salusinszky of The Australian nonetheless felt able to report that "publicly admitting to likely defeat is unheard of in politics".

Reaction to the manoeuvre was perhaps not as Debnam would have hoped. An unnamed Liberal MP quoted in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph described the decision as "stupid". The ABC’s Quentin Dempster was even less charitable on Friday’s edition of Stateline, putting it to Debnam: "I now ask you, in the interests of restoring some healthy democratic competition to this election, to step aside immediately as leader, to allow Barry O’Farrell to lead the party to the election". Debnam has since been trying to have it both ways, arguing that he did not mean what he appeared to mean when he said that "the Labor Party is going to win the election". Yesterday a Liberal election rally was told: "I’m fighting to win this election. There is not one defeatist bone in my body and never has been".

Debnam can at least take heart from yesterday’s editorial in News Limited’s Sunday Telegraph, which made a torturously qualified call for a change of government. It correctly noted that the Liberals would be much better placed if O’Farrell was leader, but concluded that a Debnam-led Coalition "could hardly do any worse" than the incumbents. However, Fairfax’s Sun-Herald went the other way, with a verdict headlined: "Unfortunately, it has to be Labor".

A few more Campaign Updates for the election guide:

Camden (Labor 8.7%): Today’s Sydney Morning Herald carries an ACNielsen poll from an impressive sample of 952 voters in this seat in outer south-western Sydney. The results are relatively encouraging for the Liberals: a 53-47 two-party split in Labor’s favour, or a swing of nearly 6 per cent. The primary vote figures were Labor 47 per cent, Liberal 41 per cent, Greens 5 per cent, independents 3 per cent and other parties 5 per cent. However, the poll was conducted "last weekend" – before the politically bewildering double whammy of the Liberals’ transport policy failure and Wednesday night’s public transport fiasco. On Saturday, Caitlin O’Toole of the Financial Review reported that "polls" showed the Liberals were in fact ahead here: none had been published, so this presumably referred to party polling.

Pittwater (Independent 5.4% versus Liberal): Alex McTaggart, who won this blue-ribbon seat as an independent when John Brogden quit in late 2005, has obviously not been studying his election campaigning textbook. McTaggart modestly informed the Sydney Morning Herald’s Andrew Clennell that he need not bother coming to see him, as he was "going to win anyway". Clennell made the trip regardless and was told by McTaggart that he did not believe in doorknocking, which he considered "in your face" and unpopular with voters. McTaggart also said his own polling showed "a 2 per cent swing from him to the Liberals on primary votes", a hard statement to read given there was no Labor candidate at the by-election. Last Saturday’s Financial Review reported that Liberal polling had them trailing 57-43 on two-candidate preferred.

Hawkesbury (Liberal 14.6%): It seemed an awful stroke of bad luck for Liberal-turned-independent member Steven Pringle when another candidate bearing his surname drew top spot on the ballot paper. However, Steven Pringle says he smells a rat with respect to Australians Against Further Immigration’s Gregg Pringle, telling the Penrith Press: "I was surprised and somewhat flattered, but then discovered he doesn’t even come from within the electorate. Now you have to be suspicious. Why would anyone with the same surname, from outside the electorate, nominate for Hawkesbury, just two weeks out from an election?" One explanation might be that the AAFI, in its determination to field no fewer than 71 candidates, was relaxed about their connections to the electorates they were running in.

Train kept a rollin’

Today’s Daily Telegraph carries a Galaxy Research poll of 1000 voters in the marginal seats of Camden, Gosford, Kiama, Londonderry and Menai, which suggests Labor will "almost replicate its two-party preferred vote of 2003 with 58 per cent of the vote after preferences". Presumably the hard copy comes with a table breaking all this down; perhaps one of my NSW readers will be kind enough to send me a scan. The poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and thus gives no indication how voters in these mostly commuter electorates might have reacted to Wednesday night’s transport chaos.

UPDATE: No table breakdown – I have been widely mocked by those more familiar with the Telegraph than myself for expecting such a thing.

Beginners’ guide to the NSW upper house

This was intended to be the first of a three-part series covering the forgotten war of the New South Wales election – the contest for the upper house. It was to consist of a general introductory overview to the state’s upper house system, combined with a form guide covering Labor candidates whose ticket positions were winnable or better. However, it appears that the not inconsiderable notes I gathered earlier this week on the Labor candidates failed to save properly. Fiddle-de-dee. So instead, I bring you the first of a four-part series covering the upper house, which will be limited to the introductory overview.

Created in 1824 as an appointed body advising the Governor, the New South Wales Legislative Council is Australia’s oldest parliamentary chamber. It was also perhaps the slowest to modernise; members continued to be appointed by the Governor until 1934, and were henceforth elected indirectly by members of both houses under a system of proportional representation. Direct election was finally introduced transitionally starting with the 1978 election, when 32 of the existing 60 members were retired and 15 new members directly elected. The 1981 and 1984 elections each saw the retirement of a further 14 appointed members and the direct election of 15 new ones, bringing the total number up to 45. The intention was that a third of the 45 members would then rotate at every third election, for a maximum nine-year term.

These term lengths were inevitably criticised as excessive, and further changes were made under a package of reforms endorsed at a referendum held in conjunction with the 1991 election. The reforms included fixed terms of four years for lower house members and eight years for upper house members, along with a cut in upper house members from 45 to 42. The cut in numbers took effect immediately, cutting short the careers of three existing members who were entering the final third of their terms (one Labor, one Nationals and an independent who had originally been elected as a member of Fred Nile’s Call to Australia). Henceforth, elections have been for 21 members, reducing the quota for election from 6.25 to 4.55.

The most recent round of reforms followed the celebrated fiasco of the 1999 election, at which voters were presented with a "tablecloth" ballot paper sized 100 by 70 centimetres. Even worse, from the perspective of those with the power to do something about it, was the election of no fewer than seven candidates from minor and micro parties. The two phenomena were linked – many of the 81 groups that bloated the ballot paper (one possible example being the brilliantly appealing Three Day Weekend Party) were set up to gather preferences for the benefit of electoral entrepreneurs, who cut mutually supporting deals to take advantage of each others’ "preference harvesting". The major parties were thus able to claim they were acting in good conscience when they took corrective measures.

Whatever the motivation, the changes have produced the best upper house voting system in Australia, and it is a great shame the federal, Victorian, Western Australian and South Australian systems have not followed its example. Firstly and most importantly, the above-the-line voting option was changed to do away with the monstrosity where voters number one party’s box and have that party determine a full preference distribution for them. This was replaced with an optional preferential system in which voters number as many above-the-line boxes as they wish, with preferences flowing down these parties’ lists and then exhausting. The 2003 election demonstrated that the overwhelming majority of voters will continue to number one box above-the-line; in effect, a party gets a seat for each quota it receives, and leftovers are apportioned to those with the highest remainders. Preferences will only affect the outcome when the result is very close – most importantly, they will then do so as a result of the conscious intention of voters who choose to number more than one box.

The new system resulted in an increase in the number of seats won by the major parties (from 14 to 17, although this was assisted by an increase in their share of the vote from 64.7 per cent to 76.8 per cent), and there are those who criticise it on this basis alone. However, the Poll Bludger has never understood how a system that gives the Coalition six seats from 28.6 per cent and the Outdoor Recreation Party one seat from 0.2 per cent could be described as "proportional representation". The new system penalises micro parties not because it is flawed, but because they don’t get enough votes. It is still among the country’s friendliest systems for minor parties, with a low quota for election and little chance of one party gaining a majority.

The following charts show the number of seats won by the parties at each election since 1978, and their total numbers after the election (i.e. including members who were not up for re-election).

The following phases should be noted:

1978. Fifteen new members are directly elected, joining 28 of the 60 existing indirectly elected members, for a total of 43.

1981. A further 14 indirectly elected members retire and 15 new members are elected, for a total of 44.

1984. The final 14 indirectly elected members retire and 15 new members are elected, completing the transition to 45 members.

1991. The passage of the referendum results in an immediate cut in numbers to 42, with three long-term members having their terms cut short.

1995. First election under the new system of eight-year fixed terms, with 21 rotating at each election.

1999. "Others" includes Liberal and Democrats members who had quit to sit as independents in the previous term.

2003. First election with optional preferential above-the-line voting.

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