Examiner examined

For the second time in the campaign the Launceston Examiner has run results from a poll conducted by EMRS covering about 200 voters in each of Tasmania’s five electorates and again the results are bad for Labor, perhaps implausibly so. The following table details the latest figures (which come from the days before Labor’s campaign launch on Wednesday) with results from the survey of three weeks earlier in brackets.

Bass (ALP 2.1%) 48 (46) 52 (54) 40 (37) 46 (51) 11 (11)
Braddon (ALP 6.0%) 52 (46) 48 (54) 43 (37) 45 (50) 9 (8)
Denison (ALP 14.3%) 64 (64) 36 (36) 48 (44) 31 (30) 17 (22)
Franklin (ALP 8.1%) 64 (53) 36 (47) 49 (39) 31 (41) 15 (15)
Lyons (ALP 8.2%) 48 (59) 52 (41) 37 (51) 45 (39) 13 (10)

The Lyons result can be safely written off but it could be that Labor will indeed have their margins garnished here and in Braddon, although it’s unlikely to be enough to cost them the seats. Bass on the other hand is looking as interesting as ever and will be the subject of intense scrutiny when the first results come in on Saturday, which will happen earlier than for mainland electorates since Tasmania is the only state to have already begun daylight savings.

Also today, The Sunday Age carries an ACNielsen poll of two Victorian seats from a sample of 1013. La Trobe is a Liberal-held seat with a retiring member and a margin of 3.7 per cent, while McMillan is held by Labor’s Christian Zahra but was made notionally Liberal with a margin of 2.9 per cent following the redistribution. In keeping with the Poll Bludger’s current assessments for these seats, Labor is narrowly ahead in McMillan (52-48 – Coalition 45 per cent, Labor 42, Greens 7) and slightly behind in La Trobe (49-51 – Coalition 47 per cent, Labor 35, Greens 13). The latter result suggests a slightly excessive flow of minor party preferences to Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.