BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Tony Abbott’s standing continues to sour on both personal ratings and voting intention, but a recent improvement in Bill Shorten’s ratings also appears to have been short-lived.

After three new polls this week – from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research – the BludgerTrack poll aggregate comes in at 53.6-46.4 to Labor, with Labor picking up one each on the seat projection in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. However, the movement is partly down to a methodological tweak involving Morgan, for which bias adjustments are now based only on the pollster’s track record within a year of the poll in question, and not as before over the entirety of the term. The same change was made for ReachTEL a couple of weeks ago. Over the long term, the effect of these changes is neutral – but in the short term they’re favourable to Labor, as both these poll series appear to have leaned less to Labor lately than they did earlier in the term. Newspoll and Essential also reported leadership ratings this week, which have had the effect of furthering Tony Abbott’s decline, while also stymieing Bill Shorten’s gains over the previous fortnight.

Two further snippets of recent attitudinal polling:

• The Guardian relates a Lonergan Research poll had a 57-43 split in favour of taking in more refugees in response to the Syria crisis, although there was a 54-46 split in favour of “Operation Sovereign Borders”, namely boat tow-backs and related policies. The results suggest these were “forced choice” questions, in which the only alternative to jumping off the fence was to hang up on the call – which Kevin Bonham has his doubts about. The poll encompassed 1109 respondents and was conducted on Tuesday night.

• The Australia Institute has conducted online polling (note the self-selecting kind) on extra funding for ABC regional news services, which was found to have 59% nationally and 64% in rural and remote areas. Further polling on the same question specifically targeted the electorates of Eden-Monaro, New England, Wide Bay, Sturt, North Sydney and Wentworth.

Also:

• The loudest of hosannas are in order for David Barry’s election results resource, which features – in the most streamlined, intuitive and accessible fashion imaginable – aggregate and seat-level results for all House of Representatives elections since federation, including preference distributions and preference flow data; facilities to explore data as bar charts, line charts and scatterplots; and interactive results maps which, on top of anything else, mark the first time all historical federal electoral boundaries have been brought together in one place.

• A Liberal National Party preselection process is under way to choose a successor to Bruce Scott in the remote Queensland seat of Maranoa. The Chronicle reports that David Littleproud, a manager of a Suncorp bank branch in Warwick, and Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor who works for the Queensland Disaster Management Committee, are “joint favourites”, while the Warwick Daily News narrows it down to just Littleproud as favourite. Other nominees are Lachlan Douglas, southern Queensland regional manager for Rabobank; Alison Krieg, a grazier from Blackall; and Rick Gurnett, a grazier from Charleville. Maranoa mayor Robert Loughnan was named earlier, but would seem to have dropped out of contention. The preselection will be conducted by a postal ballot, with the winner to be announced on October 23.

• Liberal MP Andrew Southcott last week announced he would bow out at the next election, after 19 years as member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby. Labor came close to toppling Southcott at its high-water marks of 2007 and 2010, but the 2013 landslide boosted his margin from 0.6% to 7.1%. Southcott is 47 years old, and speculation about his motives in pulling the plug have rested on two factors: his recent failure to win the Speakership, and the threat posed to his seat by the Nick Xenophon Team, notwithstanding that it is yet to announce a candidate. It is expected that the Liberals will be keen to field a female candidate. Sources quoted by The Advertiser suggest potential contenders include Carolyn Habib, a youth worker and former Marion councillor who ran unsuccessfully in the marginal seat of Elder at the March 2014 state election; and Nicolle Flint, a columnist for The Advertiser; and Caitlin Keage, a staffer to Senator Simon Birmingham. Labor has already preselected Mark Ward, a teacher at Urrbrae Agricultural High School, Mitcham councillor and narrowly unsuccessful candidate at the Davenport state by-election in January.

• Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports numbers from the Tasmanian Labor Senate preselection that has seen incumbent Lisa Singh dumped from third position in favour of John Short, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union. Singh outpolled Short in the rank-and-file half of the vote, which respectively gave 221, 123 and 110 to the incumbents, Ann Urquhart, Helen Polley and Lisa Singh, with Short on 74 and another 14 voters scattered among various also-rans. However, Short closed the gap when the half of the vote determined by unions and conference delegates was added to the total, by 158 votes to 154.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,499 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

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  1. guytaur – fair enough. It is important to acknowledge and be inclusive of men who are victims of domestic violence, but I do think it’s important to also acknowledge that women make up the overwhelming majority of domestic violence (and sexual assault) victims, and that this is the case for very specific cultural reasons.

    I don’t think the cultural aspect has to be left to Hollywood or whoever. Sex and relationship education that teaches kids to analyse and challenge what culture is telling them will be more than adequate to limiting the negative impact of culture in this area. Teaching kids about consent and healthy emotional expression is also critical.

  2. Coalition Promises A Cheaper, Faster Spill Than Labor’s.

    Amid further leadership speculations surrounding Prime Minister Tony Abbott, the Coalition Government has promised today that if they do have a leadership spill it will be cheaper and faster than the Labor alternative.

    In a statement leaked to Phil Coorey of satirical newspaper Australian Financial Review the Coalition are considering a spill provided it can be delivered on time and under budget to the Australian people.

    “We can’t follow Labor’s failure here,” said one backbencher. “If we’re going to have a spill we need it to be fast, efficient, cost effective and everything else the public expects from a Coalition government.

    http://www.sbs.com.au/comedy/article/2015/09/14/coalition-promises-cheaper-faster-spill-labors

  3. Picture of Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey leaving the next party-room meeting

    https://www.google.com/search?q=butch+cassidy+and+the+sundance+kid+ending&tbm=isch&imgil=iQJ3rE4j1W9k4M%253A%253BrL3h2nB1YyBfMM%253Bhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Ftheticketbooth.wordpress.com%25252F2013%25252F06%25252F09%25252Fbutch-cassidy-and-the-sundance-kid-1969%25252F&source=iu&pf=m&fir=iQJ3rE4j1W9k4M%253A%252CrL3h2nB1YyBfMM%252C_&biw=1920&bih=922&usg=__NozoOk30oU03zMiKCrP8DqYadkA%3D&ved=0CDgQyjdqFQoTCOXusorn9ccCFYHipgodF_kOFw&ei=yVz2VaXmCoHFmwWX8ru4AQ#imgrc=iQJ3rE4j1W9k4M%3A&usg=__NozoOk30oU03zMiKCrP8DqYadkA%3D

  4. [Laws need to be framed to protect the victim ]

    The Abbott government has dumped DV victim in with the homeless, and many specialist refuges which were experienced in protecting victims are now closing. Yet Abbott says it’s all about violence.

  5. Jimmy Doyle

    Your concerns are the education department part of government policy. Not the justice department.

    When talking about issues addressing domestic violence we need to be clear what we are talking about.

    As for Hollywood I mentioned that particularly to show the limits of what we can do about culture education. 100 classes on respect of others (THE most effective long term solution) that say woman are people too and gays and blacks etc. The different that is.

    This also goes to what we hear the Prime Minister and other people in the media spotlight.

    The education road is a long term one that needs government to pursue seriously on that different is not to be bashed basis.

    Law enforcement must be done on the basis of protecting the victim and must be gender neutral or else it does let those who do not fit the preconceived stereotype fall through the cracks.

  8. Just Me@3441

    3438
    bemused

    Due credit, sir.

    I thought the other quotation I selected was interesting too.
    [Beyond the left, Corbyn’s ability to answer questions in a clear and straightforward manner amounts to a rebuke to the political class in general. In this and many other respects, his strengths were accentuated by the weakness of his leadership opponents. With their varying degrees of milquetoast managerialism, they were not only barely distinguishable from each other but had platforms that were forgettable even when they were decipherable. Short of perhaps a speeding ticket, they didn’t appear to have a single conviction between them. There is nothing to suggest any of them were more electable than Corbyn.]
    I love the second last sentence and can think of so many in politics to which it would apply.

  10. Jimmy

    I should hasten to add I think Labor has the right policy on Domestic Violence.

    I think they are listening to the experts and people like Rosie Battie.

  11. [“@David_Speers: Malcolm Turnbull to make a statement at 4pm – watch live on Sky news”]

    He is running for the Leadership, Julie is just going to be deputy for whoever wins.

  22. “@danielhurstbne: Liberal sources say Turnbull met with Abbott after #QT seeking party ballot. Turnbull set to resign from ministry. Bishop met PM before QT”

  25. [bemused

    Short of perhaps a speeding ticket, they didn’t appear to have a single conviction between them.]

    It’s a good line. 🙂

  32. The highlight of QT was the question to name one MP who supports the PM, basically the backbench in camera shot went looking elsewhere.

    Basically my response is a two word slogan

    Good Riddance

    I know I should have made it a three word slogan.

  34. Mr Abbott,
    Don’t take this outrage laying down. You single handedly got this mob of B-graders into power and they must pay for betraying you.

  40. [Could it be that Turnbull is being lured into a trap by Abbott & his supporters?]

    In that case Shorten can start planning what to do as PM post-election 🙂

  41. [Out of that number, 137 deaths were women, accounting for almost half of the homicides, and 55 were children, with the vast majority of those – 96 per cent – killed by a parent.].

    Zoomster

    Did the report to which you refer indicate how many of those children were killed by their mothers and how many by their fathers?

  42. I can also see Turnbull wanting to promote Kelly O’Mouth. Maybe Science could be her gig to pretend/demonstrate youth and freshness.

    I think the nickname ‘Kelly O’Mouth’ suggests that women should talk less than men. Almost all politicians use a lot of words. Why does Kelly get a derogatory name for that attribute?

  43. Could it be that Turnbull is being lured into a trap by Abbott & his supporters?

    Turnbull will have a record majority in spill motion 🙂

    Total humiliation for Tony

  44. Nicholas

    Because she talks over everyone. It’s not a gender thing. It’s a Kelly O’Dwyer thing.

    That said, she was reasonable last time she was on Q & A.

  47. The Plan

    In the beginning was the Plan.

    And then came the Assumptions.

    And the Assumptions were without form.

    And the Plan was without substance.

    And darkness came upon the face of the Workers.

    And the Workers spoke among themselves, saying, “It
    is a crock of shit, and it stinks.”

    And the Workers went unto their Supervisors and said,
    “It is a pail of dung, And we can’t live with the smell.”

    And the Supervisors went unto their Managers, saying,
    “It is a container of excrement, and it is very strong, such that none may abide by it.”

    And the Managers went unto their Directors, saying,
    “It is a vessel of fertilizer, and none may abide its strength.”

    And the Directors spoke among themselves, saying to
    one another, “It contains that which aids plant growth, and it is very strong.”

    And the Directors went to the Vice Presidents, saying
    unto them, “It promotes growth, and it is very powerful.”

    And the Vice Presidents went to the President, saying
    unto him, “This new plan will actively promote the growth and vigor of the company with very powerful effects.”

    And the President looked upon the Plan and saw it was
    good.

    And the Plan became policy.

    And this is how shit happens.

  49. Apologies if you heard me shouting at the TV just now.

    If you didn’t: “you’re right Tony, Australia is better than this. In the van!”

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