The Courier-Mail has a DemosAU Queensland state poll showing David Crisafulli’s Liberal National Party government holding up relatively well in the face of the national One Nation onslaught, with primary votes of LNP 34% (down three on the last such poll in October, comparing with an election result of 41.5%), Labor 28% (down one, compared with 32.6% at the election), One Nation 21% (up seven, 8.0% at the election) and Greens 10% (down two, 9.9% at the election). The LNP holds a 56-44 lead over Labor on two-party preferred, out from 54-46 in October and 53.8-46.2 at the election.
David Crisafulli was rated positively by 39%, neutrally by 38% and negatively by 23%, with Steven Miles respectively at 27%, 36% and 37%. Also covered were, on the LNP side, Jarrod Bleijie (18%, 59% and 23%) and David Janetzki (17%, 63% and 20%) and, on the Labor side, Cameron Dick (15%, 54% and 31%) and Shannon Fentiman (14%, 59% and 27%). Crisafulli led Miles 43-32 on preferred premier, in slightly from 44-32 in October. The poll was conducted February 10 to 20 from a sample of 1044. UPDATE: Full report here.
UPDATE: There was also the now regular bi-monthly result from Resolve Strategic last week that escaped my notice, which had the LNP up one to 34%, Labor down four to 26%, One Nation up seven to 16% and the Greens down one to 10%. David Crisafulli’s preferred premier lead over Steven Miles blew out from 35-31 (which itself narrowed from 39-22 in September-October, a change that now looks aberrant) to 44-23, and his net likeability was up five to plus 21, with Steven Miles down eight to minus three. The poll was drawn from the pollster’s monthly national surveys for January and February, from a combined sample of 868.
Further from Queensland over the past few months:
• David Crisafulli confirmed in early February that his government would legislate for optional preferential voting in time for the next election, amid suggestions the government might get cold feet as the One Nation surge tipped the balance of advantage for such a reform away from the Liberal National Party.
• The Courier-Mail’s George Street Beat column reported in November that Ali King, who lost her seat of Pumicestone at the 2024 election and is now a staffer to Steven Miles, was “laying the foundation for a tilt in Morayfield”. The outer northern Brisbane seat is held for Labor by former Police Minister Mark Ryan, who it is suggested will likely retire at the 2028 election.
• Also from George Street Beat, it was reported in December that Simon Zanatta, who was chief-of-staff to former Labor member Yvette D’Ath, is “shaping up for a run” in Redcliffe, which Kerri-Anne Dooley won for the LNP on her sixth attempt in October.
• No sign yet of the proposed redistribution, which is promised for “early 2026”. In the parties’ submissions, the LNP called for the regional seat of Hill (held for Katter’s Australian Party by Shane Knuth) and the Brisbane seat of Toohey (held for Labor by Peter Russo) to be abolished, and for new seats to be created in Ipswich and Caboolture. Labor and the Greens also favoured a new seat for Caboolture: Labor made no suggestion on what should be abolished, while the Greens favoured regional Thuringowa (Natalie Marr, LNP) and metropolitan Stretton (James Martin, Labor).
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Queensland state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
It’s like the Queensland LNP is the only competent coalition party left that can still run a decent government.
What is the status of the change back to Optional Preferential Voting? With the recent rise in One Nation to late 90s, the LNP might want Compulsory Preferential Voting to remain.
Not an annihilation into oblivion but still very worrying for Labor. The 50/50 polling in Brisbane is the statistic that stands out the most. The LNP would make significant inroads in the Red wall of Labor in
Brisbane.
You would have to think Aspley, Springwood, and
Pine Rivers would be the first on the chopping block. The seat of Gaven Labor would probably struggle to hold too despite being on the Gold Coast and lose there rising star Meaghan Scanlon. But there obviously would be more losses that I haven’t mentioned.
The ONP vote under opv could mean a handful of members for coastal communities up and down the coast beating out the LNP members. ONP would offer extreme solutions to youth crime that even the LNP wouldn’t come at. Of course the ONP is anathema to Brisbane voters so this return to opv meant to split the Labor Green preferences in Brisbane could backfire. An LNP government relying on ONP members would be chaos. A swift return to Labor would ensue. Also opv offers one sided results that don’t help the party that wins big. Really dumb system.
Haha hah haha ooooooo oooo.
Is giggles still in charge of labor?
Brissie needs to be its own state, enough of these bloody yokels
Looks like Crisafulli has shaken off the Newman curse.
Since labor totally abandoned the regions except for the raping and pillaging of the wealth created there, labor will struggle to get back into power for a long time. I think outside SEQ, Labor only hold one single seat, such was the sheer contempt Labor inc held for that part of Queensland.
In any case I still think like the rest of Australia, Queensland is cooked long term as the huge burden of laws and regulations and bureaucrats destroy all productivity due to the anti economic and anti science policies we see Australia wide.
“Looks like Crisafulli has shaken off the Newman curse.”
@davidwh
16 months into a four year term is still early alot can still happen before the next election. David Crisafulli is probably benefiting from having a Labor government federally where voters like having a balance between federal and state with different parties. There was suggestion Peter Beattie enjoyed the same benefit when the Howard government was in power.
JJ says: In any case I still think like the rest of Australia, Queensland is cooked long term as the huge burden of laws and regulations and bureaucrats destroy all productivity due to the anti economic and anti science policies we see Australia wide.
@ Jolly, old mate, WTF does this mean? IN particular which “anti-science” policies are you referring too? And hoe are they anti-science? Please explain!
The Newman government was still polling pretty high at this point in their term, if I remember correctly.
Just saying.
Jumbuck would have the 20% of the population who live outside the Sunshine Coast/Brisbane/Gold Coast rectangle dictate terms to the 80% who do live there.
A few mines in the outback don’t compete with the modern economy in the SE.
@ MABWM 101PM
It does seem our mate Jolly has his parties mixed- up.
Isnt’ it the LNP who is throwing money away by putting 100s of millions into keeping dying coal- fired power stations going while screwing scientific- based wind and solar projects, and building dams in the face of climate change?
And abruptly denying those unfortunate young people caught in gender- change purgatory when the AMA is backing reforms to the system? And struggling to keep abortion debate being raised by a red- neck MP- raising the whole frightening debate over banning a woman’s right of choice and possible recriminization? Anti- science, anti- womans rights, anti -sympathetic medically based treatment – wow, how thick is Jolly to use that term when his mates are doing the exact opposite?
Sounds a lot like its Jolly’s favourite team that’s anti – science…..and there’s the scientific backing..
The LNP are already backpedalling on OPV. If ON are on anything like 20% statewide they would be crazy to reintroduce it. In 1998 ON got around 23% of the vote and that gained them 11 seats.
On those metrics, perhaps it’s time for Miles to pass the baton. My choice is the Member for Gaven, Meaghan Scanlon. She’s relatively young (31 today) and presents well.
Gettysburg1863
“. . . and there’s the scientific backing.”
Except that your post contained none.
“She’s relatively young (31 today)”
VERY young (for this job I mean). But that needn’t be a barrier if she is competent. I know nothing about her.
Miles was handed a poisoned chalice when he took over the leadership when he did. But having lost the election as expected, voters are not often inclined to pass the baton onto leaders who lost the previous election.
Can’t think of a time in my lifetime when it’s happened here in the UK that a leader of the opposition lost one election (be that UK-wide or Scotland or Wales or even London Mayor; Northern Ireland is a little different with its sectarian politics having always dominated) and won the subsequent one.
Happy Birthday to Meaghan Scanlon.
EDITED
Mavis:
I think Scanlon is still a bit too young. Give her another term or two, and I could see her doing well as leader.
Shannon Fentimen and Mark Bailey strike me as Labor’s best options at the moment. I agree that it is probably best that Miles stand down before the next election.
The LNP in Qld promised to not discuss abortion during the term of this parliament. Once that changes, I suspect the polling numbers will also change.
If he stood down wouldn’t that make him the shortest lasting Labor Premier in Queensland?
Thomas:
No, there are seven others with shorter tenures, including a couple from the ALP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_premiers_of_Queensland_by_time_in_office
Key update:
Definitely True 5
Probably True 7
Probably False 1
Definitely False 1
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 12
Probably True 0
Probably False 2
Definitely False 0