Tomorrow is polling day for Queensland’s Hinchinbrook by-election, which will fill the vacancy caused by Katter’s Australian Party member Nick Dametto’s successful bid for the Townsville mayoralty. Dametto’s move was launched with evident confidence that the party could retain the seat in his absence, but their candidate Mark Molachino has faced a determined campaign from the Liberal National Party. The by-election also offers some sort of litmus test for the resurgence of One Nation, which made little headway against Dametto at the 2024 election, polling only 4.6% of the vote. Perhaps surprisingly, Labor is also making the effort to field a candidate in a seat where they scored 14.0% of the vote last year.
The LNP campaign has made much of Molachino’s past as an ALP member, and also of Premier David Crisafulli’s connections to the electorate, which encompasses his old home town of Ingham. Crisafulli is notably close to his party’s candidate, Wayde Chiesa, the connection extending to his role as chief financial officer of Southern Edge Training, of which David Crisafulli was the director until two months before it collapsed in 2016. Both have been muscling up on law-and-order, the LNP campaign emphasising tougher bail laws and the KAP promoting its showpiece “castle law” policy, which would allow residents facing home invasions to use “whatever force necessary”.
As reported in The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column, One Nation’s how-to-vote card is notable for having Chiesa ahead of Molachino, which high-profile One Nation figure James Ashby attributes to “former Labor Party people always doing the dirty on us”. The LNP has One Nation ahead of the KAP, while the KAP card is split between options favouring the LNP and Labor, both with One Nation second. Also in the field are Amanda Nickson, whose how-to-vote card order boils down to Katter’s, One Nation, Labor, LNP; independent Steven Clare, who was One Nation’s candidate for Thuringowa at the state election; and Aiden Creagh of the Greens.
As always, this site will feature live reporting of results and commentary from the close of polls at 6pm tomorrow (7pm AEDT).
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the by-election, or Queensland state politics at a pinch. The open thread for general discussion is here.
There hasn’t been any published polling but politcal commentator Paul Williams has said KAP is a shoo-in on Saturday.
I’ve read the local rank and file aren’t getting behind David Crisafulli hand picked mate Wayde Chiesa who only joined the party shortly before the bye-election it was reported. I read the previous LNP Mp Andrew Cripps was keen to run again so there may be some gripe about that.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-27/crisafulli-kap-hitchinbrook-by-election-north-queensland/106054982
I remember Hinchinbrook being a pretty narrow 4-cornered contest in 2017 between the LNP (30%), One Nation (21%), Katter’s Party (20%) and Labor (19%).
In the end the KAP won over the LNP 57-43 from Labor and Independent preferences. A result like that might happen tomorrow, although probably with a lower Labor vote and a higher KAP vote.
Don’t see LNP gaining a seat in a by-election. The last time an incumbent QLD gov gained a seat in a by-election was the Peter Beattie years 1998-2001 term IICR. Not gonna happen.
The poster ‘freedom’ is always rhetorically-questioning the supposed triumph of One Nation. This will be an interesting test, PHON against LNP and Katter all from the Right and only Labor from leftward on the spectrum.
My guess is Katter will take from both.
Key update:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 3
Probably False 2
Definitely False 2
7 false keys for KAP to lose.
and only Labor from leftward on the spectrum.
There is also a Greens candidate.
Likely margin for my prediction:
61/39 to KAP
(may change it later)
“… results and commentary from the close of polls at 6pm tomorrow.”
That’s 6pm AEST, of course.
7pm in south-eastern Australia. And 4pm for William, way out west.
Not sure who to cheer for here, hopefully the Green does well. Seems a bridge too far for Labor but I think it’s good they’re running. I’d rather KAP than the LNP I guess, keep the Premier on his toes
Hopefully One Nation flops
Will Castle law be all over the national news next week?
Thats what KAP has run on.
Townsville is way way North .
“The Katter’s Australian Party Hinchinbrook candidate Mark Molachino has threatened to launch legal action against Premier David Crisafulli and the LNP after it released a series of ads comparing him to Troy Thompson. The party has sent a formal concerns notice to the Premier as a mandatory step before he seeks to commence legal proceedings for defamation.” From the Townsville Bulletin.
Will ABC Radio North Queensland be doing any special coverage of it tonight on Weekend Evenings?
Meanwhile the Townsville Bulletin has conducted a poll of their readers showing 55% for LNP and 39% for KAP. Probably only says something about their readers, rather than the likely result.
Finally, the Townsville Bulletin also reports that ECQ data shoes that 38.27% of the electorate have already voted, including 1,600 postal votes.
Fargo61 @ #14 Saturday, November 29th, 2025 – 5:32 pm
Yeah, most likely. The Townsville Bulletin is a News Corp outfit that has something of an impenetrable paywall so that vote only comes from people who would pay for that.
ABC Local Radio North Queensland does not sound like they have anything to do with the by-election on the agenda tonight.
New thread.