The quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania has the governing Liberals recovering two points after a six-point drop in the May poll, putting them at 38%. Labor is up two to 32% and the Greens are down one to 14%, with all others down two to 16%. The Liberals needed 50.3% to get to a majority of 13 seats in 2018 and 48.7% in 2021, although the calculus will be altered next time when each of the five divisions elects seven members rather than five. Jeremy Rockliff has recovered the lead as preferred premier at 42-39, after Rebecca White led 40-38 last time. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Monday from a sample of 1000.
Notable developments since the May poll:
• Former Labor leader David O’Byrne confirmed earlier this month that he would again seek Labor preselection in Franklin, ensuring the continuation of a saga that began in 2021 when a former union staffer accused him of sexual harassment in incidents dating back to 2007 and 2008. This caused him to be dumped as leader after less than a month in the role and evicted from the parliamentary party. Rebecca White has since resisted his return, but he retains support in the Left and the matter of his preselection is in the hands of the national executive, which last year took over the state branch’s affairs for a period of three years. The matter could potentially be left to Anthony Albanese’s casting vote if the evenly balanced national executive divides on factional lines. Further complicating the matter is the presence on the executive of Michelle O’Byrne, David O’Byrne’s sister and Left faction colleague.
• Cassy O’Connor, former leader of the Greens’ two-member parliamentary contingent, has quit parliament ahead of a run for the Legislative Council seat of Hobart at the annual periodic elections next May, potentially giving the party a seat in the chamber for the first time. The leadership has passed to its only other member, Franklin MP Rosalie Woodruff, and O’Connor’s parliamentary vacancy in Clark has been filled by Vica Bayley, conservationist and adviser to the Aboriginal Land Council of Tasmania. Bayley won a countback ahead of party colleague Bec Taylor by 5380 votes (53.6%) to 4649 (46.4%).
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported last month that a bid for the state Liberal presidency by Clarence mayor Brendan Blomeley was part of a conservative influence-building campaign with ambitions including a seat in state parliament for former Senator Eric Abetz. However, he was defeated by Michael McKenna, director of chancery services and the archdiocesan master of ceremonies for the Catholic Archdiocese of Hobart, who had the backing of Jeremy Rockliff.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Tasmanian politics. The thread for general discussion is here.
2pp puts Alp in front though, doesn’t it? On those numbers I get it (roughly, no science involved) at about 54/46.
@Mabwm
I’m thinking 2PP doesn’t really work for Hare-Clark – particularly now that the Quota has been reduced.
EricA continues to be sad
This basically confirms the drop in the Liberals’ vote last time was genuine and not a statistical blip.
And yes, joeldipops and Mabwm, 2PP doesn’t come into it. Several Greens will be elected (and possibly an independent or two), meaning their preferences won’t be distributed.
I await a detailed analysis by someone who knows what they’re talking about (like Kevin Bonham), but at first glance there doesn’t appear to be any path to a majority government either way.
Is Tasmania going back to a 35 seat lower house at the next election?
Of course, both the Liberal and Labor leaders will go into the next election promising on a stack of holy books to do no deals with the crossbench should there be a hung parliament (or, put another way, promising to ignore the voters and do a dummy-spit if they don’t get their way), but I think we all know how much those promises will be worth if put to the test.
Stuart,
Yes it is. That means a quota will be one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%.
Will there be anyone in Tasmania who is not a member of parliament after the next election?
jacobin @ #9 Friday, August 25th, 2023 – 10:17 am
Haha, but this next election is an opportunity for some real fruit cakes to get in. JLN has called for candidates. She’ll gets some interesting ones.
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Friday, August 25, 2023 at 8:17 am
EricA continues to be sad
”
You mean EricA betz? 🙂
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Mostly Interestedsays:
Friday, August 25, 2023 at 10:48 am
jacobin @ #9 Friday, August 25th, 2023 – 10:17 am
Will there be anyone in Tasmania who is not a member of parliament after the next election?
Haha, but this next election is an opportunity for some real fruit cakes to get in. JLN has called for candidates. She’ll gets some interesting ones
”
Wow. I didn’t know that Lamby is in fruit cake category. 🙂
I thought fruit cakes are in Liberal party, Tasmanian Labor party and The Greens political party.
I wouldn’t call Lambie herself a fruitcake exactly, but I do kinda doubt her capacity to seek and select candidates that aren’t.
Ven @ #11 Friday, August 25th, 2023 – 1:26 pm
Yeah it’s an in joke in Tasmania because he hates being called Erica
joeldipops @ #13 Friday, August 25th, 2023 – 2:11 pm
Not saying Lambie is a fruit cake, but she’ll attract them. Remember PHON in the 1998 Qld election. Got 11 members elected into state parliament. Lambie will want to very carefully preselect her candidates. She’s in with a real chance of 2 seats, and an outside chance of up to 4 seats.
“In early 1999, Hanson and the two Davids had tried to force a change to the party’s constitution that would enshrine their own power. Half of One Nation’s Queensland MPs promptly quit the party and sat in parliament as independents. Later in the same year, further disputes with the remaining rump of MPs about the copyright of the One Nation name led Hanson to sack the lot of them. Dubbed “white ants” by the Hansonites, they set up a new party called the City Country Alliance.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Queensland_state_election#Results
https://insidestory.org.au/the-fall-and-rise-of-one-nation/
Twelve and a half percent is a fairly high bar. Any group that can muster that much support is entitled to representation, in my view, even if we think they’re fruitcakes.
Democracy can be a bugger like that.
EightES:
+1
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Mostly Interestedsays:
Friday, August 25, 2023 at 2:12 pm
Ven @ #11 Friday, August 25th, 2023 – 1:26 pm
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Mostly Interestedsays:
Friday, August 25, 2023 at 8:17 am
EricA continues to be sad
”
You mean EricA betz?
Yeah it’s an in joke in Tasmania because he hates being called Erica
”
I didn’t know about that. But I used it on PB before 2019 Federal election because I intensely disliked that man as how he imposed his far-right agenda quite a few times as Deputy Senate Liberal leader on unsuspecting Australian public.
And I am not a Tassie.
Kevin Bonham’s’ take on the results
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/08/emrs-government-polling-steadies-after.html