Late counting: week three

Progressively updated commentary on late counting of the results from the 2022 federal election.

Click here for full federal election results updated live.

Monday, June 6

In Deakin, some pre-polls broke 53-33 to Labor and some absents broke 13-11 to Liberal, leaving the Liberal lead at 440. It’s the final seat to have dropped from my hyper-cautious results facility’s list of seats in doubt. There are 1033 envelopes awaiting processing, which I would guess will amount to about 800 formal votes. In Gilmore there are just 34 postal vote envelopes remaining to be processed: added today were postals that broke 117-40 to Labor (sufficiently lopsided that I expect there may have been an element of rechecking going on as well), absents that broke 93-63 to Labor and pre-polls that broke 270-235 to Liberal, putting the Labor lead at 348.

Sunday, June 5

The deadline for the arrival of postal votes passed yesterday, leaving the Australian Electoral Commission with only a bit of mopping up to do on a result that very much looks like Labor 77, Coalition 58, independents 10, Greens four and one apiece for the Centre Alliance and Katter’s Australian Party. The only theoretically doubtful seats are Deakin and Gilmore, where perhaps 1000 votes remain to reverse leads of 550 for Liberal member Michael Sukkar and 276 for Labor member Fiona Phillips.

That still leaves the Senate, the resolution of which is likely a fortnight away, and the process of which is helpfully outlined in a video from the Australian Electoral Commission. I have now updated my spreadsheet in which I project a simplified preference count based on flows from the 2019 election. This has not caused me to fundamentally change an assessment I laid it out here in detail on Monday, except that Pauline Hanson’s lead in Queensland over Amanda Stoker has narrowed to the extent that I now have her margin at the final count at 11.9% to 11.1%, in from 12.1% to 10.8%. This is close enough to raise the possibility that changes in preferences flows from the last election will be sufficient to account for the difference, though I personally don’t think it likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

105 comments on “Late counting: week three”

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  1. A loss for Constance in Gilmore will seal the fate of the Coalition moderates… From then on, if you are a moderate and liberal you are going to switch to the Teals…. This is probably a turning point in Australian politics, and an issue that should be discussed more frequently and deeply.

  2. While it is most satisfying that Stoker lost her seat, it is in equal terms disappointing that it delivers us the parasitic Hanson.

  3. Drdr – The bottom of my senate paper left me with a choice between Stoker and Hanson. I went with Stoker. Hope I made the right choice..

  4. I’ve often thought the Democrats would have been cleaning up if they didn’t collapse. There is clearly room for a moderate socially progressive, economic conservative party. Unhappy Liberals don’t have a Greens type party. Anyway good Labor is on 77.

  5. ScottS at 8.55

    I’ve been wondering recently about the Teals negotiating their way into the Centre Alliance…?

  6. I think Stoker is worse than Hanson which is saying something. She was pushing hot button issues with a conservative Bible belt bent in a desperate attempt to stay alive and keep on the public purse, which is something the liberals are supposedly philosophically opposed to but in practice, love dipping into. I would have rather the cannabis guys won that seat but Stoker would bethe worst of two.

  7. Your site is quite wonderful, and I’m particularly enjoying the ‘Booth Results Maps’. I think there’s a problem with Lingiari. Your map shows all the booths as having ALP majorities, but most of the booths are not showing. So we get a 55% for Labor at Tindal, which is the only Katherine booth on the map at the moment; it’s as if the map is only showing Labor two party preferred wins and not the CLP wins. Thanks so much for your wonderful work.

  8. Stocker is worse than Hanson because Stocker is pushing the fundamentalist religious right wing US Republican party ideas while Hanson has been ineffective and sometimes votes against the Liberals.
    Also Hanson is 68 and unlikely to even stay in the senate for another 6 years.

  9. We haven’t seen an updated 3CP for Macnamara for a while. But my rough in-the-head calculations suggest that the race for second spot (and ultimate victory) might not be as bum-squeakingly close as it appeared it would be.

    Should be about 300 votes in it, does that sound right? (And yes, I realise that’s still very close).

  10. Stoker’s demise celebrations could be premature – the SmearStralian website just now

    Hanson in tight fight as Lib takes the lead
    Liberal Amanda Stoker has surged past Pauline Hanson for the final senate spot in Queensland, tightening a seesaw contest that could deprive One Nation of its leader.

  11. I’d prefer Stoker over Hanson, as it will reduce the RWNJ Senate to just Malcolm Roberts.

    At 68 and not sighted since contracting Covid unvaccinated, surely Hanson is finished. This would leave:

    Roberts
    2 x Lambie
    Pocock

    26 ALP
    12 GRN
    34 LNP
    4 OTH

    Assuming the ALP and Green vote together as a progressive block (not assured given 2009 CPRS) – the LNP would need all of the others to show up, vote with LNP to just tie and defeat the motion.

    Pocock and the Lambies are likely to support the progressives, even if it means some benefits for the ACT and Tasmania. Roberts is as likely to abstain as anything else.

  12. I think one of the big question marks regarding the senate is how much change to preference flows there will be compared with 2019. I think it’s reasonable to think that Labor will get better preference flows this time, compared with 2019, for example, but how much better? And how much impact will it have on the final results?

    It’s already looking like Labor will nab a third WA senate seat, of course. The question marks sit over SA and Victoria. They both seem to have Labor at least somewhat in the running, with Labor being only 0.1 quota behind the highest quota after the first five seats in Victoria, and 0.12 quota behind in SA (also note, this is before the final counting which is mostly Absents and Provisionals, which should favour the Left). In both cases, the Greens will need some extra quota to get over the line, which will soak up some of the flows.

    But if there’s moderate flow to Labor (especially from the Left and Centre parties), and a lot of exhaustion from the Right as voters choose not to preference Liberals, could it result in Labor nudging into first to take the seat in either case?

    Using WB’s spreadsheet, the hypothetical for Victoria can be seen if LC preferences flow more strongly to Labor, and then PHON preferences exhausting a little faster, and then UAP preferences exhausting noticeably faster (UAP didn’t put Liberals or Labor on their HTV), then I could imagine a scenario in which Labor stays in front.

    For the SA flows, one thing to note is that WB’s spreadsheet appears to have an error – when Group O (Xenophon) is knocked out, for some reason Liberals’ percentage decreases and Labor’s only goes up by 0.2%, where they should have gone up by 0.8% and 1.0% respectively.

    Additionally, if Greens get better flows in 2022 (and get more benefit from remaining counting), which I could see happening, they might get over the line before AJP are knocked out, which would also benefit Labor noticeably.

    I’m not going to call either one likely, but I can see a path. It’ll be interesting to see what happens.

  13. @Spray, I doubt we’ll know how close Macnamara ended up for the Greens until the full distribution of preferences is published but based on the most recent updates I’m predicting somewhere around the middle of the 200-300 vote range.

    My calculation is that it’s around 300 now with mostly absents & provisionals remaining (but probably only enough to wipe another 30-40 votes off the deficit).

    I think the closest they had previously been – which was 2016 – was a 953 vote deficit because the following election they said they only needed to flip 477 Labor votes to win. Which of course didn’t happen because Labor got a big swing and significantly extended their lead in 2019.

    So this will be a great result for the Greens.

  14. I think there’s a problem with Lingiari. Your map shows all the booths as having ALP majorities, but most of the booths are not showing.

    Thanks for pointing this out — I hadn’t made an accommodation for the CLP. Fixed now.

  15. @sprocket – that merely demonstrates the Australian is capable of reading primary vote tallies.

    Kevin B noted that there would be a “crowd catch” of Stoker passing Hanson on primaries (which actually occurred on Thursday) without changing the projection both he and our valiant host William have done that says Hanson still wins in the end by a comfortable distance.

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-senate-postcounts-main-thread.html?m=1

  16. Arky @ #16 Saturday, June 4th, 2022 – 3:15 pm

    Kevin B noted that there would be a “crowd catch” of Stoker passing Hanson on primaries (which actually occurred on Thursday) without changing the projection both he and our valiant host William have done that says Hanson still wins in the end by a comfortable distance.

    It’s worth noting that Hanson has pushed back past Stoker today.

  17. Just a quick question, when do the AEC start reporting on distribution of preferences in the Senate count? I heard somewhere it would be 10 days after but that’s obviously come and gone.

  18. slackboy72 @ #18 Saturday, June 4th, 2022 – 4:34 pm

    Just a quick question, when do the AEC start reporting on distribution of preferences in the Senate count? I heard somewhere it would be 10 days after but that’s obviously come and gone.

    The senate count is too complicated for them to report on distribution of preferences before it’s time to hit the button on full results – meaning, not until all votes have been received and counted.

    They could probably do some indicative preference flow stuff back when voting above the line was just a 1, with group voting tickets, as most votes were above-the-line, and all followed the same pattern.

    Now that group voting tickets have been removed, and you have to put preferences in manually, there’s too many different combinations, and it’s challenging enough just entering the votes into the system (because it’s far too complex to do it all by hand).

  19. A lot of people complaining about having to choose between Hanson and Stoker. However, if you’re left of centre in political outlook, you should be rejoicing. The Queensland section of the Senate is a conservative stronghold usually returning 4 conservatives to 2 progressives. Three progressives is what those who understand Queensland voting patterns always wish for and it was finally achieved after many disappointing election results. So everyone…stop your whinging!

  20. If Hanson doesn’t get elected, she will ask Malcolm Roberts to resign and take his place. That’s how PHON works.

  21. Freya Stark says:
    Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 7:00 pm
    “If Hanson doesn’t get elected, she will ask Malcolm Roberts to resign and take his place. That’s how PHON works.”

    At which point Roberts may decide to follow the other PHON tradition – and exit the party.

  22. “sprocket_says:
    Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 12:56 pm”

    2 x Lambie and Pocock should be within easy reach of Albo’s and his Team’s negotiating capabilities. The Greens are always a question mark, but I am hopeful that they do have the capacity to learn from past mistakes. In fact, this year there wasn’t any convoy to the north of Qld (or to anywhere else) to protest against coal mining. That’s a very good sign.

  23. Hi all, just wondering if anyone knows when the AEC normally conducts 2PP counts (ALP vs L/NP) for seats for which either the ALP or L/NP did not make the top two (e.g. Mayo, Melbourne, Indi)?

  24. Hey PBS, did anyone watch the 10 news round up of political stories?.

    Apart from the hilarity of watching PVO struggle to find any relevance in the post Scomo world ( prepubescent voice and all) I happened to catch a report on NSW government pork barrelling with estimates there has being over 280 million worth of it in the last couple of years, they even showed the former deputy premier JB stating he’d wear accusations of pork barrelling as a badge of honour !.

    It made me think about the differences in labor and liberal spending when they are in government. Labor more often then not spends up big on nation building infrastructure projects irrespective of electorates and the LNP generally focus funding on marginal seats to keep favour or by rewarding loyal coalition seats with projects they don’t even need or can really utilise

  25. Please stop the ridiculous Labor Greens Wars @ #26 Saturday, June 4th, 2022 – 8:40 pm

    Hi all, just wondering if anyone knows when the AEC normally conducts 2PP counts (ALP vs L/NP) for seats for which either the ALP or L/NP did not make the top two (e.g. Mayo, Melbourne, Indi)?

    I’m not certain, but I’d expect it to happen after the regular count is finished, since it’s not needed for the election itself, it’s just a bonus that gets provided after the fact.

  26. I do feel that at almost every federal election there’s an electorate on average that doesn’t quite meet the ABC prediction.

    A full count brings up some count correction from misplaced votes. Preferences flow in surprising ways. Even after a full count, it’s close enough to require a recount. A candidate is surprise, disqualified. Or any of several other anomalies that delay or change the expected conclusion.

    I will watch to see if we have one of those this time…

  27. Re: Pork Barreling
    I believe that this malpractice could be resolved through legislative action.
    All of these community grants etc, and their funding values, are divided by 151 (being the current number of HoR seats).
    Thus each seat is entitled to the same distribution of funds.
    Specific criteria is listed and must be met by the applicant.
    The funding is overseen by the Public Service, who make specific & concrete recommendations to the relevant Minister.
    Once the allocations have been made, the local member can be invited for the photo opportunities as the cheques are presented or the specific projects are completed.

  28. “Please stop the ridiculous Labor Greens Wars says:
    Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 8:40 pm
    Hi all, just wondering if anyone knows when the AEC normally conducts 2PP counts (ALP vs L/NP) for seats for which either the ALP or L/NP did not make the top two (e.g. Mayo, Melbourne, Indi)?”

    My understanding is that, whoever the top two in the primary vote count are, if nobody has got more than 50% then the AEC allocates second preferences starting from the party that has got the lowest number of first preferences, until all those votes are exhausted. Then it goes to the second lowest party and repeats the process, until the second lowest is exhausted and eliminated… and so forth up the ladder. The party that gets more than 50% wins. I guess that if there is still no winner after counting all second preferences, then the process would start again with third preferences, and so on and so forth.
    ———————
    P.S. I don’t see any Greens vs Labor wars. But there is a solid discussion going on between the two parties, as you would expect in a democracy. The Greens don’t want to be seen as rubber-stampers of ALP decisions, and the ALP don’t want to be seen as hostages of the Greens.

    Ultimately, most ALP voters put the Greens well above their local Coalition party, and most Greens voters put the ALP above their local Coalition party.

  29. “Freya Stark says:
    Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 7:00 pm
    If Hanson doesn’t get elected, she will ask Malcolm Roberts to resign and take his place. That’s how PHON works.”…

    … and Roberts will reply: “F..k you Pauline, I’m going nowhere!”…. Which is exactly how the PHON works.

  30. “Spray says:
    Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 11:31 am
    We haven’t seen an updated 3CP for Macnamara for a while. But my rough in-the-head calculations suggest that the race for second spot (and ultimate victory) might not be as bum-squeakingly close as it appeared it would be.

    Should be about 300 votes in it, does that sound right? (And yes, I realise that’s still very close).”

    The race for second spot in Macnamara is very close, but irrelevant. Antony Green has got the Greens in second spot at the moment and the ALP winning with a 62.3% 2PP. If the Greens end up in third spot, the ALP will likely win with a similar 2PP…. Labor retains Macnamara.


  31. Alposays:
    Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 8:24 am
    “Freya Stark says:
    Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 7:00 pm
    If Hanson doesn’t get elected, she will ask Malcolm Roberts to resign and take his place. That’s how PHON works.”…

    … and Roberts will reply: “F..k you Pauline, I’m going nowhere!”…. Which is exactly how the PHON works.

    PHON got 5% of PV in HOR as per ABC and Palmer party got 4.1%>

  32. I will be very interested to see how Labor’s 2pp ends up in the seats won Teals and Greens. I have no idea how current 2pp projections (eg, ABC) take account of the non-traditional contests, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Labor picks up very big swings on 2pp in a lot of those cases which could have an impact on the final overall 2pp outcome.

  33. “Ven says:
    Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 8:57 am

    PHON got 5% of PV in HOR as per ABC and Palmer party got 4.1%>”

    Yes, that’s correct, and it’s worth remembering that such combined 9.1% obtained in 2022 is up from the previous combined 6.51% primary vote for PHON and UAP obtained in 2019. So, voters who, for one reason or another, are unsatisfied with the major parties are moving in all directions: left (to the Greens), centre (to the Teals) and right (to PHON & UAP). However, it’s clear that the overall move to the Progressive centre-left (e.g because of issues such as climate change, refugees, social justice, etc.) is more important than the move to the Conservative right.
    2022 federal election results so far for Progressive parties:
    ALP: 32.6% primary vote
    Greens: 12.1%
    Teals: 5.3%
    Animal Justice Party: 0.6%
    Centre Alliance: 0.3%
    Victorian Socialists: 0.2%
    Socialist Alliance: 0.1%
    —————–
    TOTAL: 51.2%

  34. “Outsidersays:
    Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 9:10 am
    I will be very interested to see how Labor’s 2pp ends up in the seats won Teals and Greens. I have no idea how current 2pp projections (eg, ABC) take account of the non-traditional contests, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Labor picks up very big swings on 2pp in a lot of those cases which could have an impact on the final overall 2pp outcome.”.

    Yeah I suspect once they do the actual 2PP count Labor will be doing a lot better than any modelling that uses a 60 – 40 flow from independents.

    Labor got lower than 7% of the PV in Kooyong but apparently had (what I read from memory) 30% of the senate vote. If only 60% of Ryan’s votes are being attributed to the Labor 2PP than they are probably barely getting beyond the mid 30s. In actual fact it will end up being high 40s


  35. Alposays:
    Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 10:05 am
    “Ven says:
    Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 8:57 am

    PHON got 5% of PV in HOR as per ABC and Palmer party got 4.1%>”

    Yes, that’s correct, and it’s worth remembering that such combined 9.1% obtained in 2022 is up from the previous combined 6.51% primary vote for PHON and UAP obtained in 2019. So, voters who, for one reason or another, are unsatisfied with the major parties are moving in all directions: left (to the Greens), centre (to the Teals) and right (to PHON & UAP).

    And the voters will move even more if they don’t get financial assistance from ALP Federal government vis a vis current Energy crisis.

  36. “Ven says:
    Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 10:18 am

    And the voters will move even more if they don’t get financial assistance from ALP Federal government vis a vis current Energy crisis.”

    The voters who need help will get help from the ALP government on very many fronts, not just Energy. That’s what the ALP promised: to put the People first, and that’s what they will deliver. For nine years, just because they were in opposition and therefore virtually powerless, much propaganda went around telling the naive and the gullible that the ALP “don’t know what they stand for”, they are “just like the Coalition”, they have “lost their way”, they “don’t represent the interests of the workers”… blah, blah. It was always all crap, and now it’s time to face the reality. Chances are that in 2025 the primary vote of the ALP will go significantly up, once those pathetic myths have been debunked.

  37. Alpo @ #34 Sunday, June 5th, 2022 – 8:40 am

    “Spray says:
    Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 11:31 am
    We haven’t seen an updated 3CP for Macnamara for a while. But my rough in-the-head calculations suggest that the race for second spot (and ultimate victory) might not be as bum-squeakingly close as it appeared it would be.

    Should be about 300 votes in it, does that sound right? (And yes, I realise that’s still very close).”

    The race for second spot in Macnamara is very close, but irrelevant. Antony Green has got the Greens in second spot at the moment and the ALP winning with a 62.3% 2PP. If the Greens end up in third spot, the ALP will likely win with a similar 2PP…. Labor retains Macnamara.

    You may have missed my point. We all knew that if Labor finished in the top two in Macnamara they would win the seat comfortably in the final count.

    But for several days last week there was the genuine prospect of Labor falling to third on the 3CP, or at least coming within a few dozen votes of doing so. On that point there was agreement between Antony Green, William Bowe, Kevin Bonham and many others, which is why the seat remained uncalled for so long. It was really only when the biggest unknowable factor was revealed, ie the Covid votes, that this doubt was effectively erased.

    So no, the race for second spot on the 3CP was anything but irrelevant. All I was saying was that in the end Labor might not have come quite as close to this precipice as we had thought.

  38. Ben Raue has been looking at comparisons between House and Senate voting in certain seats, like Kooyong. Can you spot the tactical voting?

    The seat where the GRN+ALP combined House primary was the lowest compared to the Senate was in Kooyong, where they polled 45.27% in the Senate and 13.06% in the House. I really think ALP could’ve won there without an independent.

  39. “sprocket_says:
    Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 5:08 pm
    Ben Raue has been looking at comparisons between House and Senate voting in certain seats, like Kooyong. Can you spot the tactical voting?

    The seat where the GRN+ALP combined House primary was the lowest compared to the Senate was in Kooyong, where they polled 45.27% in the Senate and 13.06% in the House. I really think ALP could’ve won there without an independent.”…

    Indeed!… and my bet is that first-preference tactical voting was probably mainly used by ALP voters, whereas Greens voters may have just put the Teal candidate second in their preferences (happy to see an analysis of this). But the end effect was the same, of course: the win of the Teal against the incumbent Liberal.

  40. William, I hope you’re right about how quickly they’ll do the informational 2PP counts – I notice that in 2013 it took them two & a half months, and there weren’t nearly as many of them then.

    Incidentally, does anyone have a theory as to why there’s no “Declaration vote scrutiny progress” table for Hume?

  41. “Ven says:
    Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 6:35 pm
    Calwell, ultra safe ALP seat, had a swing against ALP of 9.4% PV.
    Palmer party.: 8.9%
    PHON: 6.9%
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/calw

    ALP will ignore these kind of swings at their own peril.”

    Ven, I don’t think that the ALP is ignoring anything. I am sure that they will analyse the results of this federal election seat by seat, trying to come up with a specific answer of what happened in each seat. At the moment, the major issue for the ALP is why Qld continues to be a problem for federal Labor, in spite of them spending a lot of time and energy there since the 2019 federal election.

    In any event, now that the ALP is in government they have the chance to help those communities that are doing it tough. Hopefully, those communities would be able to compare their situation during the 9 years of Coalition government, and then the coming three years of this ALP government.

  42. A feature of the election outcome is the high number of 44 electorates now classified as marginal – within a 5% margin. That is close to 30% of all 151 electorates. Two things:
    1) It would seem voters like living in marginal electorates because it means they have access to more discretionary funds – i.e. pork barrelling. The extent of tactical voting already noted on this site would attest to that. That was a key platform of the original Teal campaign in Indi who used the slogan ‘Make Indi Marginal’.
    2) With changes expected in regard to donations to political parties, there may be limitations on budgets for the next election. The choice by party powerbrokers when deciding which electorates to spend their precious resources in will define the election. They surely couldn’t give all 44 electorates blanket coverage.

  43. Looks like a “large” batch of the remaining Postals counted in Gilmore. Phillips had a good break. Lead for Labor now 353. Not many postals left which leaves Absents and Dec Pre-Poll which have both favoured Phillips. Hope they are counted today. Looking very very good in Gilmore.

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