Late counting: rolling coverage

Progressively updated commentary on late counting of the results from the 2022 federal election.

Click here for full federal election results updated live.

Saturday, May 28

As I should have noted yesterday, the AEC has published all-important three-candidate preferred counts for Brisbane and Macnamara, where the results hinge on who will finish second and third out of the Labor and the Greens. With “88% of the total expected ballot papers” accounted for in Brisbane, the Greens lead Labor by 29.55% to 28.56% (with the LNP on 41.89%), which is sufficient for the ABC to have called the result.

Macnamara on the other hand is exquisitely close three ways, with the Liberal candidate on 33.56%, Labor member Josh Burns on 33.50% and Greens candidate Steph Hodgins-May on 32.93%. This suggests 46.9% of minor candidate preferences are going to Liberal, 35.9% are going to the Greens and only 17.2% are going to Labor. For the Greens to win, two things need to happen after the remaining 6500 or so outstanding votes are counted: they need to close their 495 vote deficit against Labor, and the Liberals need to not fall to third.

The first of these seems entirely possible. If the outstanding batches behave like those already counted, they should make up around 200 out of 3300 pre-polls and 100 out of 1100 declaration pre-polls. If the 300 or so provisionals behave like they did in 2019, they should make up a further 40 or so. Then there’s the COVID votes, of which there are about 1000, and which are apparently also expected to favour the Greens. Postals are diminishing in number, but each batch continues to be better for the Greens than the last, to the extent that today’s was the first on which they gained on Labor.

As for the Liberals, the 3CP count has them 545 ahead of the Greens and 50 ahead of Labor. There seems no particular reason to think they will either gain or lose in large degree relative to Labor out of any of the remaining vote types, so everything that was just said about the Greens relative to Labor applies to the Greens relative to Liberal as well. The question is whether the chips just happen to fall in such a way that Labor gains 50 votes or so at their expense. I am flying blind here with respect to the COVID votes, and also with how many postals can be expected – postals can arrive until Friday, and I can’t really tell you how many tend to trickle in in the second week.

All of this amounts to bad news for Labor in its quest for 76 seats, with Brisbane now out of the picture and the odds most likely leaning against them in Macnamara, which I for one thought they had in the bag earlier in the week, and which my results system is continuing to call as Labor retain due to its inability to think in three-party terms. The likely retention of Lyons only gets them to 75: they now need a late break in their favour in Gilmore or, less likely, Deakin. A great deal hinges on the absents, declaration pre-polls and COVID votes in these seats, on which we remain none the wiser, with no progress in either count today.

Friday, May 27

My results system is now registering Ryan as a Greens gain from the LNP, as the fresh two-candidate count finally advances enough to tip the probability dial over 99%. Similarly, Wannon has been restored to the Liberals after further booths were added in the Liberal-versus-independent count that was begun yesterday, and Nicholls is now being called for the Nationals as Rob Priestly’s independent bid falls short.

Labor aren’t dead yet in Deakin, where rechecking today gained them 138 on postals and 37 on ordinary votes, while costing the Liberals 169 and 30. However, there was little in it in today’s batches of absents, which broke 236-232 to Labor, and declaration pre-polls, which broke 463-462 to Liberal. Labor will perhaps need about 55% of what’s outstanding to reel in a Liberal lead that today shrank from 1032 to 655.

The contention related yesterday by Antony Green that late counting would favour the Greens in Macnamara was borne out in that the latest batch of 1951 postals were much stronger for them than earlier batches and they also performed well on the first 965 declaration pre-polls, particularly relative to Labor. Their situation will apparently continue to improve from here, but the secret of the final result remains hidden in the preference flows, on which I can offer no hard information.

It seems rechecking of ordinary and postal votes turned up 157 extra ordinary votes for the Liberals in Lyons, but little else. The first absents from the seat broke 696-621 to Labor. That leaves Labor’s lead at 678, down from 784 yesterday. For the second day in a row, the only progress in Gilmore was rechecking, which cost the Liberals 41 votes and Labor five. Counting will continue over the weekend.

Thursday, May 26

The ABC is calling Lyons for Labor after the correction of errors gave Labor a 582-vote fillip on ordinary votes. My system isn’t quite there yet though, in part because each batch of postals so far has been better for the Liberals than the last, the latest breaking 1508 (56.1%) to 1178 (43.9%). However, it may also be because the ABC has formed a more considered view than I have as to how many outstanding votes remain.

I have been assuming for some time that Labor will win Macnamara, which together with Lyons would put Labor over the line to 76 seats and a majority. However, Antony Green has dropped by in comments with an account of his own decision to hold off on such a call, informed by Labor member Josh Burns’ own lack of confidence. Specifically, both Labor and the Greens believe the Greens will enjoy a surge when absents and “an estimated 1000 COVID votes” are added to the count. On top of anything else, this is the first intelligence I have received as to how many COVID votes might be expected, here or anywhere else.

The very first absent and declaration pre-polls were added to the count today, mostly in Deakin, which respectively got 455 and 449 (there were also 787 absent votes added in Lingiari). The absents in Deakin broke 251-204 to Labor, but the pre-polls went 249-200 against. However, there was a turn in Labor’s favour on postals, which broke only 1493 (51.1%) to 1427 (48.9%) in the Liberals’ favour, compared with 58.8% to 41.2% on the previous batches. With the Liberal lead at 1032, Labor will need everything to go right on the remaining postals (perhaps about 3000), outstanding absents and declaration pre-polls (seemingly around 3500 apiece), COVID votes (around 1000, I guess) and provisional votes (a couple of hundred).

I’m not sure of the details, but rechecking of ordinary votes in Gilmore today was to the advantage of Andrew Constance, who gained 25 while Labor lost 149. No new postal votes were added to the count. Another 4095 postals in Brisbane didn’t fundamentally change the situation described here yesterday, with Labor continuing to hold a 0.7% lead over the Greens on the primary vote that I don’t think will be quite enough for them when preferences are distributed. Liberal member Celia Hammond conceded defeat to independent Kate Chaney in Curtin, perhaps because the latest batch of postals sharplhy reversed earlier form in breaking 1955 (52.3%) to 1780 (47.7%) to Chaney.

My system has withdrawn Wannon as a confirmed Liberal retain, not because such a result has become objectively less likely, but because the AEC has concluded Labor will run third and begun a fresh two-candidate count between Liberal member Daniel Tehan and independent Alex Dyson. This has so far accounted for only about 10% of the vote, and is presently giving Tehan a fairly modest lead of 52.2-47.8. Based on the relationship at polling booth level between the Liberal primary vote and the share of preferences, I am expecting this to inflate quite substantially and do not believe Tehan is in trouble.

Wednesday, May 25

My results system today called Dickson for the Coalition, bringing them to 51 seats, to which I think it more than likely that Casey, Menzies, Cowper, Nicholls and Moore will shortly be added. Labor remains on 74, and I don’t think there is any real doubt they will further gain Bennelong. Batches of postal votes are being added to the count in diminish number, but we still haven’t seen any absents or declaration pre-polls, which we can at least make broad guesses about based on past performance, or the COVID-19 electronic assisted voting results, which are anyone’s guess.

Here’s the latest from the seats that may add further to the Labor count, any one of which will get them to a majority:

Brisbane. The result remains at the mercy of unavailable information on how minor candidate preferences are flowing between the Greens, Labor and the LNP. A source familiar with the matter has passed on an informal tally based on observation of pre-poll and postal vote counting that suggests around 50% of preferences are flowing to the LNP, 32% to the Greens and 17% to Labor. If this is accurate, Labor will need a primary vote lead of about 1% when all the votes are in to remain ahead of the Greens during the preference distribution. Currently the gap is 0.7%, having increased today from 34 votes to 528 following a batch of postal votes that was actually weaker for Labor than the previous. However, that’s likely to be sent down rather than up by absent votes, on which Greens do well. So it would appear the Greens remain favourites.

Gilmore. Labor had a better batch of postals today, which only favoured the Liberals by 754 (51.3%) to 715 (48.7%) compared with 5895 (54.5%) to 4913 (45.5%) from the previous batches. With further unfavourable adjustments from ordinary vote rechecking, that increased Andrew Constance’s lead only from 104 to 112, with postals now set to slow to a trickle. This isn’t quite the lead Andrew Constance would have wanted ahead of what’s likely to be a Labor gain when absents are added.

Lyons. There seems to be an improving trend here for the Liberals on postals, the latest batch of which broke 1103 (55.6%) to 882 (44.4%) their way compared with 2966 (50.9%) to 2857 (49.1%) against them previously. If the remaining postals break the same as this latest batch, there’s going to be next to nothing in it.

Further:

Curtin. Liberal member Celia Hammond has brought Kate Chaney’s lead on the raw count inside 1%, but today’s postals were actually a bit weaker for her than previous batches, favouring her by 1075 (55.3%) to 868 (44.7%) compared with 6729 (59.4%) to 4605 (40.6%) previously. They were also notable fewer than number, and have still left her 1640 behind. As noted here yesterday, the 2019 result suggests absents are unlikely to favour her. The dynamic may be a little different this time given the redistribution has pushed the boundary substantially northwards, and many absent votes are cast just outside an electorate’s boundaries, though I can’t specifically think why this would make them a whole lot more favourable to the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

397 comments on “Late counting: rolling coverage”

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  1. Revisionist, what are you applying the shares to though?

    Eg. Are you applying the current dec-prepoll shares (such as 30.76% for Greens) to the 2230 awaiting processing, or to a % of the 3486 total that haven’t yet been processed?

    Similarly, are you applying the postal vote shares to the only 200 awaiting processing, or to a % of the total 4648 yet to be processed? That would make an even bigger difference.

    Just curious because it’s interesting to calibrate how we’re calculating it 🙂

  2. A/E depending how you count it, there is upwards of 7,000 ‘envelopes issued’ in Gilmore, in the absent, provisional and prepoll declaration categories – plus an unknown number of Covid phone polls.

    Plenty there to run down 214 vote lead…

  3. “Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Saturday, May 28, 2022 at 5:46 pm
    There doesn’t seem to be many votes left to count in Gilmore – and not enough absentee votes that may favour Labor – for Phillips to claw back a 200+ deficit on Constance.

    Prove me wrong (please)”

    If the absentees go inline with the swing than it will be just enough!

  4. A E at 5.46

    The number of Absent, Provisional and Dec. Pre-Poll votes outstanding in Gilmore does seem very low – no more than several hundred in each category. Deakin, on the other hand, has over 1000 votes in at least 2 of those categories.

    Something peculiar about Gilmore?

    PS Thanks Sprocket at 5.51 – so lots of unopened envelopes…

  5. I too guessed 77 Labor seats, at another forum. C’mon Macnamara and Gilmore!

    If it does in fact come to a Labor majority, they’d be wise to learn from Peter Malinauskaus. He has a clear majority in the lower house but nevertheless backed the re-election as Speaker of an Independent who had quit the Liberal Party. In the upper house Labor backed the election of a Liberal President (in his last term). This will help get bills passed.

    Mali also appointed the Independent Geoff Brock to the ministry, where he had previously served when Jay Weatherill needed him.

    Some Labor people are missing out on the perks of office but the government will find it easier to get things done.

  6. Trent, those are the current 3CP shares based on the current reported votes inflated by the revealed preference flows (48 – 34 -18)

    If it is mostly postals and dec prepolls left, I curious as to what is driving your Greens winning the 3CP in your model?

  7. A slight deviation to majority/non majority.

    ALP has 75, needs 1 more to appoint Speaker from its own ranks and have an absolute majority. So it matters whether Macnamara or Gilmore makes it 76 for ALP.

    But what if ALP stays on 75? And appoints a Speaker (which is 99% certain they will, they certainly want to). So 74 votes on the floor, which can be beaten by 75 or 76 if all opposing are present and vote against.

    That means that the Liberals, Nationals, Greens, Teal independents, other independents all have to agree, show up and vote the measure down. Albo already has 5 independents written guarantee on confidence and supply, which was accepted by the GG prior to swearing in Albo.

    So with the Coalition decimated (losing 10% + of their seats, and in existential turmoil) does it matter to get the final seat won?

  8. I’ll share my full methodology for those interested. That way people can see where they think they would adjust certain figures in it themselves 🙂

    Starting point is obviously the current totals. Everything gets added to that. I consider “Other” as one group (for the purpose of applying preferences later).

    My projection, which currently has Labor excluded, expects the following:

    1383 absents (1464 remaining minus 5.5% informal/rejected) at:
    24.8% LIB
    27.9% ALP
    34.2% GRN
    13.2% Other
    (These are the current absent rates)

    3309 dec prepolls (3483 remaining minus 4% informal/rejected):
    25.8% LIB
    27.9% ALP
    30.8% GRN
    15.6% Other
    (These are the current dec prepoll rates)

    747 provisionals (1067 minus 30% informal/rejected):
    21% LIB
    25% ALP
    42% GRN
    (This is based on 2019’s variation from ordinary votes)

    1000 Covid phone votes (estimate that has been quoted) @ the same rate as absents because we have no data.

    3718 postal votes (4648 remaining minus 20% not returned/informal/rejected), at:
    26.7% LIB
    28.5% ALP
    33.2% GRN
    11.6% Other

    (These are the rates from the most recent batch, and so far every single batch has moved in the same direction of weakening for both LIB & ALP and strengthening for GRN, there’s been no up & down)

    The postal votes are a big question mark but if I reduce the number remaining to as low as 1800 I still get the same exclusion order. Similarly, I can adjust the shares to the average they were getting over the last 3000 postals rather than just the last 1000 – which is higher for LIB & ALP and less for GRN – and still get the same order too.

    After that, I apply the 48-34-18 preference flow.

    This may sound like I’m saying I think the Greens will win now. I don’t. There’s a very, very small “sweet spot” that they need to land in to win and I don’t think that will happen because it’s so close that even the smallest variation to the numbers above could put Labor above them, or exclude the Liberals. And there’s far more chance of a variation than there is of those numbers playing out exactly as projected.

    But the fact that the projection on the remaining numbers and current rates does actually land in the sweet spot at the moment, surely means you couldn’t write it off as “implausible”?

  9. The problem has always been that the more one of the G’s or Libs overperform to get above Labor the less likely the other will be able to.

    Any overperformance has to come at Labor’s expense almost exclusively. But that’s not how it works in reality all that often. If the Greens are going better than enough to get them over Labor in these latest counts they’re taking votes of the Libs that they need.

    Yes there is that small window where the Libs fall to third via second. But the problem with that idea is that the Libs were only ever first in some theoretical projection. Even Antony’s quoted 3cp count shows Labor first and the Libs third.

    So this tiny window hasn’t even come into existence yet. It seems the Libs are underperforming the projection which makes sense because the Greens seem to be overperfoming and you’d naturally assume some of that is going to come off the Libs.

    And of course if Labor is leading at this stage even by a small amount on 3cp they are on track to remain over the 33.334% threshold to make all other considerations academic.

    Super interesting to watch and yes the very unlikely is still possible, but there hasn’t really been any significant change in the outcome I can see. How we get there is and will continue to be fascinating though.

  10. Trent, they are particularly generous postal and provisional flows and there are way too many Provisionals and likely postals..

    That could be what is driving your outcome?

    Last election there was a turnout of 89% and we are already at 81%

  11. @ sprocket_ 6pm

    ….agree sprocket. ALP will surely prefer the speaker to come from their own ranks – firstly it comes with a hefty pay rise and status within the parliament itself. Not to mention the speaker’s overall authority of the floor and the reduced chances that he or she will ‘go rogue’…

    ……..and yes I would agree that to get to 76 seats only matters now in name only. There are so many different interests and unconnected members occupying the crosss-bench that the Government is extremely likely to get one or two supporting votes. Or one or two abstentions or absents.

    The (sure to be re-written) protocols surrounding pairing in this new parliament is going to be fascinating to watch !!

  12. Revisionist, they are the exact numbers remaining as per the AEC tracking.

    If all of those votes in my email get counted at the rate I’m projecting, turnout would be 87% which is lower than 2019….

    The provisional flow is based on 2019 and I agree is generous, but the numbers are so small it only results in a 40 vote difference for the Greens even if I reduce them all the way to 34%. It will be higher than that.

    The postal flow is exactly what the current flow is; but as I said, even if I significantly reduce that flow (down to about 29% for the Greens) or if I significantly reduce the number of votes remaining from 3700 to 1800, I still get ALP & Greens pretty much tied.

    I just don’t understand why it seems like you’re on a mission to just prove to everybody that there is no reason Antony Green shouldn’t have called the seat already? Especially when he explained why and every subsequent batch is making the seat even closer than expected.

    As I have said probably a million times already, I am NOT – I repeat NOT in any way – saying that I think the Greens will win. I have maintained the entire time that I think it’s a very likely ALP win.

    What my projections are intended to demonstrate, is that based on exactly the remaining number of votes according to the AEC, exactly the current flows going to each party, and a number of variations being applied, in all instances I only get a very small gap between first and third with at *least* 6000 votes remaining to be counted (and up to 10,000 which would still be below 2019’s turnout).

    I just don’t understand why when everybody from Antony Green, Kevin Bonham, the scrutineers, the candidates themselves and everybody here is agreeing that yes Labor is very, very likely to win but there are just too many votes and unknowns to call it, that you’re so determined to argue that it should have been called already?

  13. @ratsak, I 100% agree with you and you echo exactly what I have been saying the whole time.

    In a couple of my earlier posts I also pointed out that the latest 3CP numbers indicate that the Liberals are doing considerably worse than in my projections – which likely means the preferences are breaking worse for them (and better for the Greens) than the estimated 48/34/18 we have all been working with – and that is the main reason I think my projection will be off and that the Liberals are very likely to come third.

    I never disputed any of that. I’ve never been saying that the Greens have any more than a 1% chance of winning. I’m just trying to illustrate the same thing I think everybody else is trying to illustrate to The Revisionist – that there is enough of a chance for Australia’s most respected psephologists to not have put their reputations on the line and called the seat already. I think my arguments for that have been pretty clear and reasonable.

  14. Trent, chill dude, I have been engaging you purely on your calculations. Don’t be a Gleno

    What was the sample size of the batch of postals that got you those shares you are using?

    You’ll find your postals and Provisionals are doing a lot of heavy lifting. The Greens got a particularly high share of 350 Provisionals last time.

    If the Greens come in on a wet sail of getting 33% of 3,000 postals that haven’t appeared yet (or even go close to that), I’ll happily come back here, after eating my hat, and admit I was wrong….and apologise to you Gleno, Antony Green and anyone else who was offended by me having a strong opinion on a blog forum

  15. When did I ever say that the Greens would sail in on those numbers?

    I’ve said in every single post that it won’t happen and that Labor will win.

    Literally the only thing I’m arguing, is that media outlets have been correct to not call the seat yet. That’s all.

    If Labor win – and they will – that won’t prove that it should have been called now. And in the 1% chance they don’t win, it also won’t prove my point any further than it shouldn’t have been called. The eventual outcome is irrelevant. What’s relevant is that right now, at this point in time, there are simply enough votes left, and a small enough gap, for the seat to not be called. That’s it plain & simple.

    Not one person has argued with you that it’s not an extremely likely- almost certain – Labor victory. Not one, including me. But you’ve just been on a different mission to everybody else, calling it absurd that the nation’s most respected psephologist hasn’t called the seat.

    (And by the way, I also said the numbers remain close even if the Greens get 8% less on provisionals and 4% less on postals; and if there are 2000 less postals that favour them; but more importantly, I very clearly and very explicitly said myself – multiple times – that my modelling is probably irrelevant because the preferences are breaking differently to 48/34/18 anyway, so why keep harping on about a postal flow that I already said in multiple ways is totally irrelevant?)

    I think you need to just let it go. There have been numerous people interested in the results, different scenarios and how the dynamics are evolving etc. There’s no harm in people showing interest in the evolving numbers of a fascinating race, and being deliberately dismissive of anybody showing interest in the race is just coming across as rude.

  16. Trent, please just engage on the numbers.

    I am being conciliatory and you appear you are getting angrier

    I will admit I am wrong if it gets closer enough that, in hindsight, it could have turned out differently. At the moment, the Greens have overperformed over the last two days within a plausible range and are still not going to get near.

    I am genuinely committing to admitting I am wrong if there is a large batch of yet unreceived postals that vote like you think they will

    I asked you though, how big was the batch you are calculating you postal estimates off?

  17. Revisionist, admit to being wrong about what? You both agree on who will win. Did you even read trents’s comment?

  18. I’m not saying there is definitely a large batch of unreceived postals definitely coming.

    I am saying there are 4648 issued but not yet returned according to the AEC, and using the following figures if only 1800 of them are returned:
    29% LIB
    29% ALP
    30% GRN

    I get the ALP beating Greens by only about 80 votes.

    This is based on roughly averaging the results from the last 2 batches (3000 votes), so basically better for Labor and worse for the Greens than the last batch.

    I am not hanging my hat on this and never was. But I’m saying my modelling – which I have already said is irrelevant and shouldn’t be followed so I don’t know why you’re asking about it – shows a close race between ALP & Greens on these numbers. So if the other vote types all flow as they currently are, and the preferences break 48/34/18, I’m simply saying it’s *plausible* to assume it will be a close enough race to not call it now. I’m not saying the Greens will win. You seem to think I am.

    But again, I have also said that since the 3CP count came out, my modelling is out the window anyway because the preferences are clearly not breaking 48/34/18 if the Liberals are in third place instead of first, and therefore the Liberals will probably finish third and whether or not the Greens catch Labor is a moot point.

    I think everybody here agrees with that. I am agreeing with you. I have been agreeing with you the whole time. The only reason I am confused is because the way you’re responding to my posts seems to be implying that I am saying something I am not.

    I am saying the Greens have next to no chance of winning. It’s a 99% ALP Gain. What we’re simply discussing is the WAY they are going to get there, but you seem to be arguing with everybody as if we’re saying Labor won’t win, and that it won’t even be close enough for it to have not been called days ago.

  19. The thing with Macnamara is based on everything but the COVID phone votes you can envisage scenarios where the Greens pass Labor and you can just about manage to envisage scenarios where the Liberals pass Labor although that is very difficult, but both at once does seem effectively impossible now not least of which because every postal for the Greens is one not available to the Libs and vice versa.

    HOWEVER the COVID votes are the spanner in the works that nobody can model and Antony suggested there’s a thousand in Macnamara. They could break in a startlingly different way to all other votes in the seat. And that’s why I think there’s caution calling any seat within 1000 or so votes.

    I don’t really understand why we’ve gone a week without even a first count on absents or phone votes, which would probably have put all these seats to bed, but there you have it.

  20. The Revisionist @ #315 Saturday, May 28th, 2022 – 6:45 pm

    If the Greens come in on a wet sail of getting 33% of 3,000 postals that haven’t appeared yet (or even go close to that), I’ll happily come back here, after eating my hat, and admit I was wrong….and apologise to you Gleno, Antony Green and anyone else who was offended by me having a strong opinion on a blog forum

    So, the official 3CP numbers have been updated. https://www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm
    Liberal 29,202 33.56%
    Labor Party 29,152 33.50%
    The Greens 28,657 32.93%

    Liberals have now overtaken Labor. And much of that happened due to postals. There are still 1161 absents, 1067 provisional, 2230 dec pre-polls, and 200 postals to count.

    Absents have been substantially overperforming for the Greens, and Greens are also doing well on dec pre-polls…

  21. @Adam:No clue. Feels like the count is just under resourced and the AEC needs to keep going and finishing other seats as well. Was told by a Labor scrutineer doing Macnamara that they feel like the counters have less training than in the past and scrutineering issues are being resolved slower.

  22. “ And yes pretty confident Constance hasn’t gotten enough out of the postals. He’ll get run down.”

    There simply doesn’t seem to be enough absentee, provisional and declaration votes left (Less than 2K in total) for that to be feasible. Alas.

  23. In Gilmore, if you apply the same swing against Labor on ordinary votes compared to 2019 will carry over to absent and declaration votes then Labor gains 296 votes and ends up with a lead of 82 votes.

    Those 3CP numbers make it look increasingly possible (though still unlikely) that Labor could drop to 3rd in Macnamara.

  24. The Revisionist @ #324 Saturday, May 28th, 2022 – 7:49 pm

    “GlenOsays:

    So, the official 3CP numbers have been updated. https://www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm
    Liberal 29,202 33.56%
    Labor Party 29,152 33.50%
    The Greens 28,657 32.93%”

    Gee wiz those numbers look familiar

    Do you mean these?

    The Revisionist @ #293 Saturday, May 28th, 2022 – 5:37 pm

    Greens 32.802
    Labor 33.539
    Libs 33.658

    If that’s what you mean, I notice that you had Labor and Liberals higher, and Greens lower, than the real numbers…

  25. Yep, the greens have outperformed on preference flows from the numbers we were given earlier

    They’ve outperformed on everything (based on the same assumptions Trent and presumably all psephs would use) and still have no chance (unless there are 3,000 postals that haven’t been received that behave very differently from the rest of the postals….which there won’t be)

  26. The Revisionist @ #327 Saturday, May 28th, 2022 – 8:06 pm

    Yep, the greens have outperformed on preference flows from the numbers we were given earlier

    They’ve outperformed on everything (based on the same assumptions Trent and presumably all psephs would use) and still have no chance (unless there are 3,000 postals that haven’t been received that behave very differently from the rest of the postals….which there won’t be)

    First of all, I’m saying outperformed what they’ve done so far – you’re saying they’ve “outperformed on everything”, but that’s based on your personal beliefs, not based on actual numbers.

    By my calculation, if Absents, Dec Pre-polls, and Postals all go exactly as the ones so far have gone, and the preference flows from minors stay the same, then the distance between Labor and Greens is just 225 votes.

    A 3.2% swing of votes from Labor to Greens on the remaining count would be enough to achieve that – I wouldn’t exactly call that implausible.

  27. Arky @ Saturday, May 28, 2022 at 7:21 pm

    From MartinB’s comment, I suspect they will only add the COVID telephone votes following reconciliation with postal votes. The wait is agonising!

    That said, it is also exciting to have a novel variable.

    Edit: spelling

  28. ” you’re saying they’ve “outperformed on everything”, but that’s based on your personal beliefs, not based on actual numbers.”

    Outperformed on actual numbers

    Green v Labor differential on absents and dec pre polls (compared to last election)
    The last few thousand postals
    The preference flows from the numbers previously provided presumably from throws of ordinary votes

    “By my calculation, if Absents, Dec Pre-polls, and Postals all go exactly as the ones so far have gone, and the preference flows from minors stay the same, then the distance between Labor and Greens is just 225 votes.”

    Really? Workings please!

  29. Indeed, at this point in the counts where it is clearly going to be only a few hundred votes or so in it, (Macnamara and Gilmore) not only will we have to wait for the complete distribution of preferences, but also if it is fewer than a hundred votes, a recount (although of course recounts have rarely shifted things by more than ~20 votes).

    So, yes, chill.

  30. The Revisionist @ #330 Saturday, May 28th, 2022 – 9:02 pm

    ” you’re saying they’ve “outperformed on everything”, but that’s based on your personal beliefs, not based on actual numbers.”

    Outperformed on actual numbers

    Green v Labor differential on absents and dec pre polls (compared to last election)
    The last few thousand postals
    The preference flows

    “By my calculation, if Absents, Dec Pre-polls, and Postals all go exactly as the ones so far have gone, and the preference flows from minors stay the same, then the distance between Labor and Greens is just 225 votes.”

    Really? Workings please!

    Looks like there was a typo in one of my calculations, so I need to correct the number slightly. It’s a 4.2% swing, not a 3.2% swing (point being, still well within the realm of possibility).

    Current 3PP values for Labor and Greens:
    Labor 29,152
    Greens 28,657

    Envelopes awaiting processing – 1161 Absent, 2230 Dec PP, 200 Postal.

    Labor PV minus 4.2%:
    Absent = 23.65% = 275
    Dec PP = 23.75% = 530
    Postal = 27.37% = 55
    Total = 860

    Greens PV plus 4.2%:
    Absent = 38.37% = 445
    Dec PP = 35.01% = 781
    Postal = 24.32% = 49
    Total = 1275

    Minor Candidates – 153 Absent, 348 Dec PP, 19 Postal = 520

    Labor gets 18% = 94
    Greens get 34% = 176

    Result:
    Labor = 29,152 + 860 + 94 = 30,106
    Greens = 28,657 + 1275 + 176 = 30,108

  31. Kevin Bonham’s most recent update (9:30pm):

    “Just ran a 3CP projection on remaining absents and dec prepolls and I have the Greens only about 200 behind (less after provisionals) and the Liberals 130 ahead. And that will come down still more on provisionals. Anything could happen!”

    He also believes what’s left to count is quite similar to what I was guessing earlier.

    From his 8:30pm update:

    “The AEC say the current vote share is about 93% of expected turnout, which would put expected turnout on 87.5% (down from 89.1%). To come, about 1450 absents, 300 provisionals, 3000 dec prepolls and maybe 1750 postals and COVID votes.”

    I think it’s safe to say it’s trending to be extremely close, possibly within the recount threshold at the 3PP stage as Martin B says, and at this stage it’s clear that not calling the seat to declare a majority for Labor is absolutely justified.

    One thing for sure is this has been a fascinating race. I’m enjoying watching it unfold, and don’t really understand why it would bother anybody that it hasn’t been called. It makes for a fun count!

  32. Trent @ #335 Saturday, May 28th, 2022 – 9:53 pm

    “The AEC say the current vote share is about 93% of expected turnout, which would put expected turnout on 87.5% (down from 89.1%). To come, about 1450 absents, 300 provisionals, 3000 dec prepolls and maybe 1750 postals and COVID votes.”

    I thought I’d see what happens when those numbers are applied (not counting provisionals) with my estimation (see previous post).

    With 1450 Absent, 3000 Dec PP, and 1750 Postal, I determine that a swing of just over 3.1% from Labor to Greens would be enough to get the Greens into the 2CP (exactly 3.1% would leave Greens one vote behind).

  33. The absents and declaration pre-polls are really not looking promising for Labor. By the latest 3CP count after the 3000 postals were added, they are 50 votes behind the Liberals. But the issue is that absents are breaking only 3% in favour of Labor against Liberal on first preferences, and just over 2% in declaration pre-polls. So the Liberals look to be gaining votes against Labor in 3CP after minor party preferences/donkey votes.

    If they are behind Liberals in 3CP, they need to rely on being ahead of the Greens. It’s unclear just how many of these late votes remain to be counted, but they all look to be very strong for them and it’s very plausible that Labor simply gets overtaken by the sheer margins the Greens are getting on them.

    It’s still clearly favoured for Labor, but I’d be backing off the 99% or 95% bullishness. The Greens are gaining votes, and it’s not clear if Labor is going to bridge the gap with the Liberals.

  34. How those postals will break is one of the unknowns. You definitely couldn’t apply the overall postal flows because they have changed so much. The Greens actually outperformed Labor by 4.7% on the last batch of postals, the batch before that they were almost even, and the Greens have improved with each subsequent batch (but may have hit a ceiling). So who knows how the remaining postals will break.

    All we know based on Kevin Bonham’s projection, is that if absents and decs continue the way they are, the Greens will be within about 200 votes of Labor and the Libs about 100 votes in front of Labor before taking into account those postals and Covid votes, both of which could really go any way.

    It’s definitely shaping up to be a nailbiter. My prediction is that however it lands, all 3 will be over 33% when the 3CP count is said & done, that’s how close it will be. What a race!

    EDIT: I agree Adda. I still favour Labor because they win in most of the possible outcomes, but so far everything that hypothetically had to go perfectly for the Greens, including the Liberal vote being high enough, has pretty much been occurring so their chances are improving.

  35. “Trentsays:
    Saturday, May 28, 2022 at 10:28 pm
    How those postals will break is one of the unknowns. You definitely couldn’t apply the overall postal flows because they have changed so much. The Greens actually outperformed Labor by 4.7% on the last batch of postals, the batch before that they were almost even, and the Greens have improved with each subsequent batch (but may have hit a ceiling). So who knows how the remaining postals will break.

    All we know based on Kevin Bonham’s projection, is that if absents and decs continue the way they are, the Greens will be within about 200 votes of Labor and the Libs about 100 votes in front of Labor before taking into account those postals and Covid votes, both of which could really go any way.

    It’s definitely shaping up to be a nailbiter. My prediction is that however it lands, all 3 will be over 33% when the 3CP count is said & done, that’s how close it will be. What a race!

    EDIT: I agree Adda. I still favour Labor because they win in most of the possible outcomes, but so far everything that hypothetically had to go perfectly for the Greens, including the Liberal vote being high enough, has pretty much been occurring so their chances are improving.”

    Trent, I obviously agree with your last line and I still can’t see how the Greens get over Labor even if that keeps happening (let’s ignore any hypotehsis that the remaining votes spill out 4% over and under the PVs of Greens and Labor respectively as there is no chance that happens).

    What we are also seeing, despite bestish case scenarios coming to fruition, is the second highly improbable element which is why I was so confident – how the Greens could overperform in a way that doesn’t drag the libs back under labor

    Also presumably the kind of logic that Antony Green was operating on earlier in the week when he gave it to Labor only to over turn cos J Burns called him…..or when Labor were apparently almost going to call it on Friday

  36. Also, back calculating the preference flow rates, I get

    Greens 35.4
    Labor 17.6
    Libs 47

    So the Greens had a 1.4 lift after what was presumably a very large sample size to start with. Quite remarkable given the minor candidates, donkey position etc

    Possibly implies that people more likely to have had HTVs gave lower Green preferences

  37. Revisionist, your logic of “If The Greens have very strong 3CP margin on late counts, that means the votes are left-wing, which means Labor will be ahead of Liberals” is compelling on the surface. The problem is, that’s not what’s bearing out in reality so far on absents and declaration pre-polls. The Liberals have actually been gaining votes against Labor on 3CP by only being slightly behind on first preferences and then getting the minor party preferences. That is exactly how the Greens are overperforming and the Liberals not slipping under Labor – because Labor is simply not getting enough votes.

    It’s still fully possible that the trends change. But as it stands, we are heading for a photo finish. One in which I, as someone who has $3000 on the Labor candidate, am certainly nervous about. And we still have uncertainty about how many votes there are exactly to go – and especially the wildcard of COVID votes!

    I would personally say that this scenario should be enough for a mea culpa on your end for insisting on a premature call from Antony Green.

  38. @Revisionist, that 4% over or under the ordinaries isn’t really relevant now.

    Greens get within 200 votes of Labor, and the Libs still 100 votes out in front, just based on decs & absents performing at the same rate they are now.

    That’s before taking into account the Covid votes and ~1750 postals. Nobody knows how they will break but there’s enough there to possibly make up a 200 vote deficit if they favour the Greens like the Covid votes are expected to and the recent postal votes have.

    For them to do so without the Libs also losing their lead over Labor, Labor just have to outperform the Libs by less than what the Libs make up on minor preferences (by less than 3%) which is also possible and is actually what is already happening.

    It’s still the less likely outcome because so many possible factors or variations would keep Labor in the top 2, but it’s possible without really any significant swings or changes in how votes are currently breaking.

    I’m still predicting all 3 finish almost neck & neck within around the 33.1-33.5% range (less than 400 votes between first and third), which certainly justifies an early call not having been made.

  39. Trent, you were stressed earlier about me claiming victory when Labor inevitably won. I assured you I wouldn’t but I am thinking of withdrawing that commitment given you have now on multiple occasions made reference to me calling it early since then despite me not reacting….

  40. If after decs, absents & provisionals we have Libs 100 ahead of Labor and Greens 200 behind, as the projections suggest without any change to current flows; then an average flow of around 26 LIB, 29 ALP, 33 GRN across the remaining postals and Covid votes (which would translate after preferences to roughly 31.5 / 31.5 / 37) would probably put the Greens ahead of Labor while not reducing the Libs’ 100 vote lead.

    That’s quite possible because the latest postals were similar to that and the both parties are said to expect the Greens to win the Covid votes.

    Labor just need either the gap between them and the Greens to be smaller to stay in front of them, or the gap between them and the Libs to be large enough to eliminate the Libs, or simply for there to not be enough formal votes left for the Greens to catch them, say if <1000 postal votes come back. Any or multiple of those 3 scenarios could occur which is why I'd rather be in Labor's shoes, but I would also be pretty nervous with the way the numbers have been trending too.

  41. For all the carry on re the Greens gains in metropolitan Brisbane, the gaining of those 3 seats is down to the catastrophic collapse in the LNP vote and the number of those votes flowing to the Greens, changing the 2PP count order to the detriment of Labor

    With a Queensland LNP Opposition Leader, will the LNP vote recover in these seats thereby reverting to the 2PP count which was the case before this election?

    So the factor is the LNP reversing those 10% swings against it and at the expense of the Green vote (which was the swing) relegating the Greens once again to third

    Basically, the Labor vote has remained unchanged, slightly down or slightly up

    The other question is will the performance of the Albanese Labor government see at least some of these votes lost by the LNP go directly to Labor at the expense of the Greens (allowing for some recovery in the LNP vote which must be at the low water level, particularly with a Queensland Opposition Leader)

    These will be the issues over the term of this Parliament

    Noting the agenda of the Labor government gives priority to climate, integrity and equality and where being seen as consistent with the 10 Independents will give credibility to the government (so the Greens will need to be very careful with their interventions)

    No doubt the government will work with the Independents and the 10 votes they have on the floor

    The Independents may then be in a position to stand in the seats the Greens currently hold – and successfully

    Labor needs to protect its 76 seats – including by targeting now marginal seats such as Deakin and Menzies for starters

    Incumbency will have its rewards

    And if Labor and the Independents say the climate war is over, with their 86 seats on the floor of the house, where does that leave the Greens with their 4 seats and in the Senate?

    I wouldn’t be underestimating Albanese

    I do know of the spending commitment(s) made over the last week and invested into the distribution networks these commitments over and above what has already been invested so now turbo charged including an extra $19 Billion by one player in this field alone – their completion date in the 2/3 year range

    So it is all systems go

    The Capital is now fully committed

    This Capital is the domain of the Labor Party and the Independents because it is courtesy of the climate wars being over noting 86 votes on the floor of the house

    This is the commercial outcome – and it will be delivered in a responsible way over the next 3 years to the benefit of society and the economy

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