Click here for full Western Australian election results updated live.
End of Saturday night
The two-party projection on the entry page to my live election results facility currently credits Labor with a 13.7% swing, which if uniform would have left the Liberals only with Cottesloe and Vasse, both on margins of less than 1%. Those are indeed the only two seats the Liberals have clearly won – that they’re ahead by a fair bit more than 1% there reflects a general tendency for the swing to be a little milder in their own seats, which may yet save them in Churchlands, Carine and Nedlands. It should be noted that a very great proportion of the vote remains uncounted, with last night’s proceedings only scratching the surface of the unprecedented postal and pre-poll count. A dynamic may yet emerge which favours the Liberals in the in-doubt seats, but there hasn’t been any evidence of it in the pre-polls and postals that have thus far been counted, which have actually been even worse for the Liberals than the election day votes.
Whether the Nationals will emerge with more seats than the Liberals remains to be established. They look to have lost North West Central to Labor, who get belated revenge for Vince Catania’s defection to the party way back when, although the Nationals wouldn’t be conceding yet. A loss here would bring to an end the regional empire the party built under Brendon Grylls. The South West region seat of Warren-Blackwood has swung 11.7% to Labor and has not definitely been retained, which could potentially reduce them to three.
Nonetheless, the Nationals’ performance in their traditional Wheatbelt heartland was the only bright spot for conservative politics last night. Happily for the Nationals, the four electorates here are accommodated by the boutique Agricultural upper house region, which has three-and-a-half times as much voting power as the metropolitan area, and in which they have retained their two seats. The party’s primary vote was up in all four of these seats (and was down only slightly in Warren-Blackwood), but a slump in support for the Liberals and One Nation powered two-party swings to Labor of roughly 10%. This gained them Geraldton, where former Liberal member Ian Blayney had defected to the Nationals since the last election.
Now to the upper house, where I don’t see Labor winning less than 21 seats out of 36, and could get another three besides; the Liberals will get five to seven; the Nationals four or five; the Greens one to three; Legalise Cannabis one to two; and Shooters should have one.
Agricultural. Looks like being Labor three, Nationals two and Liberal one.
East Metropolitan. The ABC computer has this as four Labor, one Liberal and one Legalise Cannabis, but with Labor on 64.7%, there could be a scarcely believable result of five Labor, one Liberal if the micro-party vote fades in late counting.
Mining and Pastoral. The ABC says four Labor, one Nationals and one Shooters, but depending on where the uncounted votes are from, the Liberals may take the Nationals seat. The Daylight Saving Party could potentially take the Shooters seat, though I would expect late counting will reduce the micro-party preference snowball.
North Metropolitan. Labor clearly has three and Liberal one, with the last two seats a game of musical chairs between Labor, Liberal and the Greens, with the Greens seemingly behind the eightball. However, there’s another scenario in which Australian Christians take the seat that might go to the second Liberal.
South Metropolitan. The ABC says four Labor, one Liberal and one Green, but the Greens have only a slight lead over the micro-party preference snowball which leaves an outside chance of another fluke another win for Aaron Stonehouse of the Liberal Democrats.
South West. Three Labor and one each for Liberal, Nationals and Legalise Cannabis, according to the ABC, but a bit of playing with the calculator suggests the situation to be a bit fluid: the Legalise Cannabis seat could go to the Greens or a fourth Labor, and I’ve managed to concoct a scenario where the Nationals vote goes to Australian Christians.
Election night commentary
11.17pm. My results updating was offline for half an hour while my laptop was in transit, and is now back on to greet the late night addition of pre-polls and postals. My intimation that these might save some furniture for the Liberals is not being borne out: the collective two-party swings so far on pre-polls (15.3%) and postals (20.7%) is worse for them than the election day vote (a mere 13.2%).
9.48pm. So to summarise, it’s very hard to see how Labor doesn’t win a majority. Kevin Bonham notes the raw figures these calculations are coming off look too low for the Greens, so they could make it to three, although the worst case scenario is zero. A micro-party or two could get up, but that’s up in the air. For the second time, One Nation have come up empty-handed a term after winning three seats.
9.41pm. South West is three Labor and one apiece for Liberal, Legalise Cannabis and Nationals. The Nationals seat could conceivably go to Australian Christians or a fourth Labor, though I assume they will firm up in late counting.
9.40pm. South Metropolitan currently four Labor, one Liberal and one Greens, but the Greens only have their nose in front against the micro-party snowball at the close. I assume though that the latter will come back a bit in late counting.
9.36pm. North Metropolitan currently Labor four and Liberal two, but the last two seats are a very tight race between the fourth Labor, the second Liberal and the Greens, and could land with any combination thereof.
9.32pm. Back to the upper house. The ABC’s Mining and Pastoral progressive projection is Labor four, Liberal one and Shooters one, but the Liberal seat could potentially go to the Nationals, and it’s a squeaker between Shooters and the Daylight Saving Party for the last seat.
9.31pm. My system is now calling North West Central for Labor, as the ABC and Nine already were, a result that makes it slightly less likely the Nationals will emerge with opposition status.
9.30pm. In East Metropolitan, the ABC currently says four Labor, one Liberal and one Legalise Cannabis. But Legalise Cannabis has only a slight lead over the Greens at a key point, and if it closes there could be an opening for the Greens.
9.25pm. I’m going to go through the upper house region by region with highly impressionistic views of the situation based on how early returns are playing out through the ABC’s preference calculators. Starting with Agricultural, which looks like it should go three Labor, two Nationals and one Labor, which would be the first time Labor has ever won three seats here. However, there could be an opening for a micro-party at the third Labor’s expense if they fall back substantially.
9.20pm. The ABC and Nine are both calling North West Central for Labor, but I’m not quite there yet. That would mean four seats for the Nationals. The best case scenario for the Liberals is five, in descending order of likelihood: Churchlands, Vasse, Nedlands, Churchlands and Carine. The ABC is calling the latter two for Labor, but neither I or nine are.
9.05pm. Kevin Bonham tweets on the upper house: “Seems to me a very good chance of a Labor majority upstairs. 20 seats looks realistic.”
8.55pm. An update of booth-matched primary vote swings by upper house region. I’m hoping someone with more mental energy than I have at the moment might analyse their implications for the Legislative Council result which I can then pass off as my own work.
8.41pm. The Nationals have four seats in the bag, are in danger of losing North West Central, and clearly haven’t held Geraldton. Do the Liberals clear that hurdle? Only Cottesloe and Vasse look in the bag. Churchlands is very tight; they may yet get home in Nedlands; Carine isn’t looking good for them.
8.32pm. My statewide two-party preferred for projection isn’t improving for the Liberals, and shouldn’t move much until pre-polls start coming in. Then we will see if, as I keep suggesting it might (though this is far from certain), the situation improves a bit for the Liberals.
8.30pm. Now there are two-party numbers in from Nedlands, my system is no longer calling to for Labor. This is because independent Fiona Argyle is on 13.1% and was apparently directing preferences to the Liberals — for the want of better information to go on, it was assuming they would split evenly. I’ve still got Labor ahead, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if a more positive dynamic for the Liberals on pre-polls pulls it out of the fire for them.
8.29pm. My results weren’t updating for a period, but we’re back in business now.
8.06pm. The Greens are running ahead of the Liberals in Fremantle, Kimberley, Kwinana, Maylands and Perth, after having done so nowhere in 2017. Obviously that’s more a reflection the Liberals’ performance than Labor’s — I’m calculating a 1.2% swing against the Greens on the primary vote.
7.59pm. All the interest now is what the Liberals can hold on to, which is no more than Cottesloe, Vasse, Churchlands and Carine, though I wouldn’t rule out a late miracle in Nedlands.
7.50pm. The image below shows lower house primary vote swings by upper house region, which may be of use to those of you trying to work out how the Legislative Council will look.
7.43pm. Dawesville being called now for Labor by the ABC and Nine (my system is less conservative it seems).
7.35pm. I’ve lost count of what of my system’s calls I have and haven’t related, so I’ll run through the projected Liberal defeats: Dawesville, Geraldton, Hillarys, Kalgoorlie, Nedlands, Riverton, Scarborough and South Perth. The only seat I’m calling for the Liberals is Cottesloe: they are merely ahead in Vasse and Churchlands.
7.34pm. So my election results facility is running very smoothly I’m pleased to say. If you’re finding it useful, note that I’ve tactfully but donations buttons on the top right of each page.
7.32pm. Nationals leader Mia Davies just asked on Nine if she is about to become Opposition Leader, a not unreasonable question. As noted two entries below though, a degree of caution is still required as to quite how bad this will be for the Liberals when all the votes are in.
7.31pm. There are now TCP figures from four seats, and my statewide Labor two-party projection has gone up rather than down.
7.29pm. My system is now calling Nedlands for Labor. I will add one note of caution though: we could be seeing a dynamic where Liberal voters were more inclined to go from election day to pre-poll and posting voting this time. Something similar happened at the last Victorian elections, and there were a few calls in Nedlands-like seats that ended up being reversed when pre-polls came in in the small hours.
7.26pm. There’s finally TCP figures for two booths in Balcatta, so a statewide two-party projection is now showing on my results page. It has Labor on 71.2% — but like I said, two booths from Balcatta.
7.22pm. There still aren’t any TCP results from the WAEC, but my primary vote projections suggest a swing of about 12%, which is in line with the YouGov poll. Their Dawesville poll isn’t looking bad either.
7.21pm. Calling Dawesville for Labor.
7.12pm. I’m now calling Hillarys and Scarborough called for Labor.
7.08pm. My system is calling Riverton for Labor, estimated a two-party swing of around 10% based off the primary vote numbers.
7.06pm. Apparently the WAEC likes to hold back on publishing two-candidate preferred data for some reason.
7.02pm. On top of anything else, movement from Liberal to Nationals in country seats.
6.58pm. I have the Liberals retaining Cottesloe after one booth with around 1000 votes recorded only modest swings on the primary vote.
6.55pm. First result in from Dawesville with 342 primary votes, and I’m calculating a 7.3% swing to Labor against Zak Kirkup’s 0.5% margin, which happens to be the smallest swing I’ve yet seen.
6.52pm. Two booths in Kalgoorlie both have Labor up around 30%, causing my system to call it for them. I note that there is yet to be a two-party result anywhere — hopefully this isn’t some issue with the media feed.
6.50pm. A bunch of booths on the primary vote make it clear Labor will win Geraldton with a swing of around 15%, so the regions appear on board with the swing.
6.43pm. Pilbara (a 38% primary vote swing in the Roebourne booth) and Swan Hills (23% at Wooroloo Primary School) added to the Labor retain booth.
6.40pm. Still early days of course, but every indication I’m seeing points to the anticipated Labor avalanche. With two booths in from Baldivis the Labor primary vote is up 38% — an independent polled 21% here in 2017.
6.38pm. With around 2000 votes in from Central Wheatbelt, I’m projecting a swing to Labor of around 10%, which still leaves Nationals leader Mia Davies very safe.
6.37pm. Each of those calls is based on small booths showing primary vote swing to Labor of between 15% and 28%.
6.33pm. My system is calling Rockingham, Burns Beach and Butler for Labor already.
6.31pm. We’re getting a flood of Special Institutions, Hospitals & Remotes results – there are a handful of these for each electorates and they’re evidently being counted straight up, and not a few days later as I’m normally used to. As well as being small in number, I don’t have historic data for them to calculate swings.
6.26pm. The blockage in my results facility has now been removed. Those party swing figures on the entry page are screwy but everything else looks okay.
6.17pm. There are 77 primary votes in from Central Wheatbelt (Westonia Shire Office). About a 15% swing to Labor, for what little that is worth.
6.15pm. I think my results facility is working — the WAEC’s time stamps are screwy which makes it hard to say until results the first results are in, which should probably be in about 15 minutes.
6pm. Polls have closed. Commentary and, hopefully, live publication of results to follow.
Under “normal” circumstances the greens coming second in Fremantle would have won them that seat on Liberal prefs. Not this time. Libs collapse, and Simone gets 56% for the ALP so preferences aren’t a factor. 🙂
May have been something to do with the unfortunate photo of their candidate that the Libs used on their advertising?? Quite offputting. 🙁 Lack of experience of their apparatchiks maybe??
Greens always a chance to pinch seats from Labor….Pity they could not replicate this by pinching them from the Libs………The Greens – a cross Labor is stuck with for good or bad……..
JM
It will be interesting to see if Gladys’s “unrealistic” and “living with the virus” comments come back to haunt her electorally.
Cud Chewer @ #302 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 1:15 pm
That, and what happens federally, are going to be good tests of the hypothesis.
Although NSW is not due until 2023 and that may be enough time for the pandemic influence to wash out.
The remaining state elections (SA, Tas, Vic) and the federal election are all due in 2022, so there is a better chance of some pandemic influence on the result.
Quoll
Seems like it will be a while before an election in such circumstance and with such a result will occur again.
There are fixed term 4-year Parliaments in WA. The next election will be in March 2025. In the energy sector the de-carbonisation of the domestic economy will accelerate. The export gas sector – drawn from offshore fields – will likely expand, contributing to the reduction in coal consumption in East and North Asia.
There are two particularly encouraging elements that can be observed from this election. One is the pronounced and widespread rejection of the Liberals. The other is the decline in the Green vote and their defeat in the Legislative Council. These will make it much easier for WA Labor to take seats from the Liberals in the Federal election, perhaps leading to the creation of another Federal Labor Government. We know the Greens will try to frustrate that, but the portents are better for Labor than they have been since 2007. Hopefully Labor can win despite the mischief run by the Greens, who are a fading force in WA.
A success for the ALP and a failure fir the LNP.
I do not blame the LNP failure on anyone but themselves – unlike others on this platform. The voters are always right.
Clearly the WA State Liberal Party needs significant change. Anyone thinking there will be a major turnaround in fortunes without that are kidding themselves.
Going on William’s current figures,
Primary change from the last election
Labor; increase 37%
Divided Nation; decrease 66%
Liberal; decrease 33%
Greens; decrease 17%
Nats; decrease 10%
Hows this.
Victorian Liberals tried to divide the community with Sudanese gang nonsense,
WA labor get the first Sudanese women elected to parliament.
https://twitter.com/NyadolNyuon/status/1370901777386639360/photo/1
Bucephalus @ #306 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 4:56 pm
So, how much do you think was State issues, and how much was Federal?
50-50?
60-40?
Bucephalus @ #306 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 4:56 pm
From afar, the reasons for the Libs losing so badly.
1. They did not initially support the Government’s Covid strategy of border protection.
2. Mark McGowan is a good presenter for those looking to trust a politician.
3. The WA economy is in good order.
4. There is broad support for action on Climate Change.
5. No one wants to vote for a Party controlled by Christian fundamentalists.
Things are not so good for Labor over on this side – ten years wasted: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/ten-wasted-years-nsw-labor-polls-just-23-9-per-cent-of-primary-vote-20210314-p57ajg.html
As I suggested, seems Smoko has no problem dealing with the new WA government, even apparently claiming some of the credit for himself in the papers already. Keeping you sandgropers afloat apparently.
The West Australian @westaustralian
Scott Morrison has taken credit for the resounding WA Labor election win and says the Federal Government had “bankrolled” the State through the pandemic Lock https://bit.ly/3eAR9ml #wapol #auspol #wavotes
His party may be in disarray but the Carbon Club donors interests seems largely intact.
With current and proposed LNG projects in WA set to add ~8% to the whole of Australia’s GHG emissions by 2030. WA Labor seems fine with that.
https://www.cleanstate.org.au/myth_busting
This means, if unchecked, this pollution effectively adds another 8% to Australia’s current emission reduction target, making it 33-35% by 2030.
The unchecked pollution from just 5 facilities owned by three corporations is forcing all other sectors of the Australian economy to do the heavy lifting to compensate for the runaway emissions.
Quoll @ #312 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 6:33 pm
You’re clutching at straws as the Greens fail to make any impact and go backwards yet again in WA.
That’s every election held since the last Federal Election.
If you can’t to make any progress you should switch your attention to that duopoloy that actually makes decisions.
Personally, I’m actually quite amused to see you flailing in the dark of political impotence.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/03/13/western-australian-election-live-3/comment-page-7/#comment-3573169
Incorrect, its has not been every election, the Greens significantly increased their votes and seat in the ACT in the 2020 election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Australian_Capital_Territory_general_election
Steve777
Not saying its a good result but it seems that in the reporting of that poll they haven’t distributed the undecideds given Lab and LNP combined only add to 60%.
This is a rather unusual way of going about things. One can only imagine why the Vaucluse Morning Herald would have chosen this editorial direction.
Tom the first and best @ #314 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 6:58 pm
Council Elections don’t count comrade.
The Waec website indicates they are counting today, but mostly Legislative Council votes, for some reason, with a focus on Legislative Assembly counting during the week. No idea if we will see any additions to the tally today. I guess they will do things at their own pace, although you would. Like to think some significant progress will happen over the next couple of weeks. It really is disappointing that counting cannot commence before polls close – even to start at 4pm as Mr Green has proposed would help. But what will be will be!!
ALP quota in East Metropolitan region has edged up to 4.63 – but ABC prediction has Legalise Cannabis last elected on Green and nonsense parties preferences – hopefully their quota continues to improve and there is enough below the line spray (especially from Greens) for a different result. I don’t know if that is feasible or not.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/03/13/western-australian-election-live-3/comment-page-7/#comment-3573197
Predictable and inaccurate response. The ACT is larger that all but 3 local councils (all in Queensland) and has significantly more responsibilities than local councils. It would be reasonable for the ACT to have local councils within it.
There have been some lower house votes counted today.
It appears to be only the Special Institutions, Hospitals & Remotes.
Tom the first and best @ #319 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 7:30 pm
So, remind me how the Greens went in Northern Territory, Queensland, Eden Manaro and now WA.
Outsider, re the Sunday count, Mr Green says “The WAEC is counting pre-polls and postal votes for both houses today. They count votes in batches of 1,500-2,000 votes, so there are long periods when there are no updates. There’s usually a mad rush of updates all at once towards the end of counting each day. ”
So wait for a bump in the numbers soonish – maybe.
This is quite moving.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1368957853378174982
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/03/13/western-australian-election-live-3/comment-page-7/#comment-3573226
Not as well (except in inner-Brisbane). The Pandemic has concentrated political attention on major parties, which in most places the Greens are not (although they have not done nearly as badly as One Nation, who really messed up).
Tom the first and best @ #324 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 7:53 pm
Excuses! Excuses!
I have it on good Greens authority that McGowan does not know what he is talking about.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-14/mark-mcgowan-says-labor-government-will-be-centrist-after-win/13244536
boerwar @ #326 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 8:20 pm
Yes, it’s disappointing that he has usurped the PB role in political opinioning.
“It will be interesting to see if Gladys’s “unrealistic” and “living with the virus” comments come back to haunt her electorally.”
Magically, none of the new variants of Covid seems to have been able to penetrate the Iron Curtain that Gladys has elevated around NSW…. Whereas those new variants have been detected in the ALP states of Vic, WA and Qld….. If you find that suspicious, you are not the only one!
The virus is real, but there is too much information crap around it… This “democracy” has got some problems.
“I have it on good Greens authority that McGowan does not know what he is talking about.”…
Seen from where the Greens stand, Nelson Mandela would probably be regarded a “conservative”….
Seen from where the vast majority of voters stand, the Greens are regarded as a fringe party.
It’s just a matter of perspectives, you know….
GG:
“Not as well (except in inner-Brisbane). The Pandemic has concentrated political attention on major parties, which in most places the Greens are not (although they have not done nearly as badly as One Nation, who really messed up).
Excuses! Excuses!”
Yep, and ScuMo is also engaging in professional excusology. He is saying that the trashing of the WA Liberals is only due to McGowan’s leadership during Covid, meaning that, federally, he expects that his leadership during Covid will be equally rewarded with a federal election victory. The problem is that Newspoll had been announcing the trashing of the WA Libs for quite some time before the election, whereas the same Newspoll is giving 50%-50% to ALP vs Coalition….
I can’t see any equivalence between the two cases, can you?
“Steve777says:
Sunday, March 14, 2021 at 6:13 pm
Things are not so good for Labor over on this side – ten years wasted”…
The more the Libs keep repeating the magic words “Eddie Obeid” in NSW, the more we will repeating the magic words “Campbell Newman” in Queensland…. Let’s see which magic words lose their magic first…
Alpo @ #330 Sunday, March 14th, 2021 – 9:18 pm
The Greens are a result of long term prosperity. They emerged as a Party political force post 1991 recession and hung around because issues like Climate Change became topical.
Their overall performance has been indifferent at best and counter productive to their professed ambitions.
Personally, the sooner they get moved on from their sanctimonious positioning in the body politic of Australia, the better.
Newspoll 52/48 L.
It truly is satisfying just how synonymous the name “Campbell Newman” has become with “failure.”
Nice to see all the desperate, cranky tory apologists out swinging at … let’s see… the greens! bwahahahaha tally ho from WA gentlemen
> So, remind me how the Greens went in Northern Territory, Queensland, Eden Manaro and now WA.
NT: Gained vote share
Queensland: Gained a seat
Eden-monaro: With a lot more candidates their vote held up more then Labor’s did.
Informal is running second in Mirrabooka.
Just saying.
A WA Liberal MP has launched a scathing attack on his own party’s performance, saying it failed to be a “credible opposition” over the past four years and calling its central election energy proposal “the stupidest policy” ever released by the party.
Upper House Member for the South West, Steven Thomas, who is on track to secure his seat for another term, unleashed a barrage of criticism against his party on ABC Radio Perth.
“When COVID came along Mark McGowan did a pretty good job with it and he’s been rewarded for that,” Mr Thomas told the ABC’s Nadia Mitsopoulos.
“But at the other end of the argument, from a Liberal perspective, we lost our credibility.
“We didn’t campaign hard enough for four years, we lost our connections to the community.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-15/liberal-mp-lets-fly-at-own-party-in-wake-of-wa-election/13249518
As catprog points out, greens would have been happy with their qld election result. It’s better to be the nationals (3% of vote, 10% of seats) than to be the greens (10% of vote, 3% of seats). Qld saw the greens lose votes in seats they get few votes in, and win votes in seats they had lots of votes in.
That same thing seems to be happening in WA, pending final numbers. Greens increased in Fremantle, Perth electorates but went backwards in total votes.
Pretty sure the same happened in vic – gained seats and vote share in their competitive seats, lost votes overall
Of course, in WA it’s less of a good thing, due to the existence of the upper house.
Don’t overlook the ACT result last year. From 13.5% of the vote, the Greens got 24% of the seats (6 of 25). Just sayin’…
Liberals ahead in Churchlands.
May need a bigger meeting room now.
5th Labour ahead of the 1st Liberal in East Metropolitan
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/results-emet
Another weird thing in East Metro: at the second last count, WAP are less than 0.03 quotas ahead of Christians, whose prefs then elect the Libs. WAP only get ahead of the Christians on Labor’s surplus, so that’s got the potential to wobble around a fair bit.
If that swaps, then WAP (and the 12 other parties in their preference snowball) mostly have the Christians ahead. Only Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice (0.23 quotas between them) have Libs ahead. The Libs still win under that scenario, but it’d be funny to watch them need help from pot smokers and hardcore vegans… to beat Nick Goiran’s old party.
(Oh, and all that relies on the weird bug in the way surpluses get distributed not happening again. Last time that’s how One Nation won the last seat instead of the Libs.)
Anyone know why only a few thousand votes were counted today?
To be hoped they up the ante tomorrow.
Sea dog
Think I saw somewhere that with most seats decided focus was on legislative council
William may provide an update later this evening