BludgerTrack 2: electric boogaloo

A newly launched aggregate of federal polling suggests an election that may be coming this year will be closer than commonly presumed — if indeed the polls are to be believed.

As we move into what may very well be an election year, the BludgerTrack voting intention poll aggregate is finally cranked back into action. The model, which naturally picked a fairly comfortable Labor win on the eve of the 2019 election, is not quite what it used to be: there are dramatically fewer data points and less depth available in terms of breakdowns (pollsters have promised more rather than less transparency on this score, but thus far largely failed to deliver), which means there’s no point attempting state-level trends and seat projections as was done before.

Nonetheless, and for what it’s worth, you can now see voting intention trends on the sidebar, and in greater detail here. The lodestar for the model is Newspoll/YouGov: the results of the other pollsters, which really just means Essential Research and the occasional Morgan, are adjusted for bias as measured by the extent of their deviation from a Newspoll trend measure. As it happens though, these adjustments don’t amount to much: over time, none of the three pollsters has shown any particular tendency to favour any one party more than the others.

The trend shows a consistently close race through the current term, somewhat in defiance of media narratives, with Labor poking in front on two-party preferred in the wake of last summer’s bushfires but the Coalition maintaining a lead of around 51-49 for most of this year. This pattern is equally evident in the cruder but probably no less effective aggregate that Kevin Bonham knocked together for his comprehensive view of the year in polling. Part of this may be related to the fact that the new YouGov-administered Newspoll has maintained the pollster’s curious habit of being more consistent than the vagaries of random sampling should theoretically lead us to expect.

I’ve also gone the extra mile on the poll data archive, which now includes all of the expanded breakdown data that Newspoll is now providing in its quarterly aggregates (education, income, language and religion, on top of the traditional state, age and gender) and such two-party state breakdowns as Morgan has provided us, right down to two tiny-sample readings for Tasmania. The leadership ratings trends are still in business, though I’ve bumped them in favour of the voting intention trends on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,232 comments on “BludgerTrack 2: electric boogaloo”

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  4. The damage to the USA will deepen if the reaction to today’s thugs is muted. Trump, but also every single enabler and rioter must be humbled. When I watched the video of that woman hollering with joy on leaving the Capitol Building something went cold. That image went around the world. Enough. The trials must be public, forensic, and comprehensive.

  7. I have watched USA politics for the last 12 hours or so in shock, and horror but not surprise. Are you aware one of the insurrectionists carried a large Australian Flag? If this was a dual citizen he needs to have his Aussie citizenship cancelled immediately, as we have done to other terrorists with their wives and kids.

    Wash Post editorial pointing out the two-faces of the evil Mitch McConnell.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/01/06/mitch-mcconnells-sanctimony-is-too-much-bear/

  11. Bushfire,
    I assume google et al have enough info on me to make a clone that is more me than me.
    *shrugs*
    Too late to cry over spilt milk.

  13. Per CNN:

    * Mike Pence ordered the National Guard to the Capitol
    * It has been discussed for two years to invoke the 25th Amendment on Trump.
    * Trump released his statement on Twitter via Dan Scavino’s account.

  14. Hartcher is as slow as a wet week. He is like a race caller calling a replay of last year’s Melbourne Cup.

    It is beyond that now, because the USA is now at the Dawning Horror stage. This is their fork in the road, and the pontificators like Hartcher helped get Democracy there.

    Just STfigU, Hartcher. You failed.

  16. Shortly before 4 a.m., after lawmakers formally tabulated each state’s Electoral College votes, Vice President Pence announced before a joint session of Congress that Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris had won 306 votes over Trump’s 232.

  17. From Puffy/gismodo:

    One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts — the guy who toasted Trump’s win with champagne in front of Parliament House and lobbied Australian diplomats for tickets to Trump’s inauguration — posted that “Democrats are willing to do anything to steal the election”.

    He did so literally while rioters were in the Capitol Building.

  19. NSW still has 11 cases under investigation that stretch back 18 days.

    That’s a bunch of potential hidden chains of infection.

  20. Biden’s greatness is for everyone to see on ths 20th. After that almost anything achievable, but to gain legacy on your first day in office, Morrison’s dream.
    Biden will be a very reluctant hawk.
    Morrison arrived under a cloud, fumbles, hides, denies and lies.
    Morrison has achieved more than he ever expected. Morrison will grab the loot and willingly bolt at the first opportunity. It’s all a deeper hole from here.
    Beaten by the Premiers. Reluctant now to even leave his corner. There’ll be no more Covid Cabinets.
    Looks like a pretender. The polls are coming to haunt.
    Albanese hasn’t had to make a call.

  22. PuffyTMD @ #3843 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 9:15 pm

    https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2021/01/how-australia-helped-pave-the-way-for-the-us-insurrection/

    “During the storming of the US Capitol Building, keen-eyed broadcast viewers were surprised to see an Australian flag hoisted high by one rioter amid a sea of US flags and Trump banners. This flag, however, is not as out of place as it may seem. Australia played a part in creating the mess in the US.”

    An Australian was the Mass Murderer in New Zealand too.

  24. Morrison is doing right to make neutral comments. Pity he didn’t show the same constraint when talking about Xi Jinping.

    Albo also did right, he has more freedom.

  26. On a lighter note: as a few minutes ago we have, living around the house –

    Four wallabies of varying size.
    Two pademelons.
    And now three potoroos.

    Who show up either in the morning or evening holding their little cups for leftover duck pellets and seed.

  27. In just two weeks London’s hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus patients, in a best-case scenario outlined by the NHS in a leaked document.

    The briefing, obtained by HSJ, outlines how even if the rate of COVID-19 cases increased by the likliest lowest numbers, and measures to manage increased capacity worked, the city’s health service would still be short nearly 2000 beds by January 19.

    HSJ reports the analysis was presented by NHS England London medical director Vin Diwakar to the medical directors of London’s hospital trusts on a Zoom call.

    The presenation slides detail how demand on general and acute beds on January 5 was up 3.5 per cent and 4.8 per cent for ICU beds. A best-case scenario forecasts a 4 per cent daily increase in patients and 6 per cent for worse.

    Dr Diwakar told the publication that hospitals were under significant pressure and people must do everything they can to reduce transmission of the virus.

    It comes after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Britain was in a “tough final stretch, made only tougher by the new variant” as he said England’s lockdown could stay in place until the end of March amid soaring COVID-19 infections.

    He said the mutant strain of the virus identified in London and the southeast last month was spreading with “frightening ease and speed” and worsening a death toll that stood at 76,305 in Tuesday’s official figures.

  28. ItzaDream @ #4159 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 9:05 pm

    A new president is not enough. Democracy is a mindset; Americans are losing it. The deepening bitterness, expressed in economic and race and cultural wars, is the acid eating away US democracy.

    Hartcher

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/democracy-is-a-mindset-and-americans-are-losing-it-20210107-p56si7.html

    Pretty much what I have been trying to say here all day …

    In their book How Democracies Die, Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt write that “although mass responses to extremist appeals matter, what matters more is whether political elites, and especially parties, serve as filters. Put simply, political parties are democracy’s gatekeepers”.

    Even after experiencing first-hand the fragility of America’s democratic order, these Republicans voted for a coup. Trump ultimately will be gone; the deep divisions and anti-democratic urges that allowed his rise will linger.

    A new president is not enough. Democracy is a mindset; Americans are losing it. The deepening bitterness, expressed in economic and race and cultural wars, is the acid eating away US democracy.

    🙁

  29. I uploaded the link and picture of that bastard carrying the Aussie flag into the Capitol Building, to the FBI site for lodging tips and images of the insurrection. I hope the mongrel is found and charged!

  30. Just reflecting on the Georgia results and what this means for the incoming new govt.

    – Biden should be able to get his cabinet picks confirmed now and in place.
    – Democrats can now make court appointments.
    – A more substantial Covid stimulus package is now on the table.
    – Manchin should expect to be courted bigly by Minority Leader McConnell.

  31. “ An Australian was the Mass Murderer in New Zealand too.”

    Umm. Pretty sure that was a joint Antifa/BLM false flag exercise. Honest.

  33. Confessions @ #3858 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 10:00 pm

    Just reflecting on the Georgia results and what this means for the incoming new govt.

    – Biden should be able to get his cabinet picks confirmed now and in place.
    – Democrats can now make court appointments.
    – A more substantial Covid stimulus package is now on the table.
    – Manchin should expect to be courted bigly by Minority Leader McConnell.

    I just heard that Biden was waiting to announce Merrick Garland as AG until the results of the Georgia Senate run-offs came in due to the fact that he didn’t want Mitch McConnell to replace the Justice Garland with another Conservative judge.

  35. Andrew_Earlwood @ #3859 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 10:02 pm

    “ An Australian was the Mass Murderer in New Zealand too.”

    Umm. Pretty sure that was a joint Antifa/BLM false flag exercise. Honest.

    Yes, he had his cap on backwards didn’t he? 😉

    I mean, I heard that absurd suggestion emanate like effluent from the mouth of Mo Brooks today. That is, you could tell the Insurrectionists were antifa because they had their MAGA caps on backwards!

  36. C@t:

    Yes I read the other day Biden was going to nominate Garland, but nothing confirmed from actual Biden sources. He’d be smart to wait.

  38. Player1
    Don’t bother with Hartcher. He is always two beats behind in the marching band. His skill is stating the bleeding obvious after it has happened.

    We are at a new point, but Hartcher is too thick to see it.

    The USA has had its boil lanced. It will be messy and stinky but with the right care and aggressive treatment they should end up with a clear scar.

    Now is when it gets interesting, for all democracies.

  40. PuffyTMD @ #4188 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 10:11 pm

    Player1
    Don’t bother with Hartcher. He is always two beats behind in the marching band. His skill is stating the bleeding obvious after it has happened.

    We are at a new point, but Hartcher is too thick to see it.

    The USA has had its boil lanced. It will be messy and stinky but with the right care and aggressive treatment they should end up with a clear scar.

    Now is when it gets interesting, for all democracies.

    What Harcher is pointing out (which I also pointed out) is that Trump is just a symptom, not a cause.

    The cause is yet to be addressed. And not just for the US. You can include the UK and Australia.

  43. I suspect that a primary indicator of a smooth transition is the incumbent conceding that they lost. That has not happened and likely will not happen.

  44. I assume, like the share market, all “yous” neo-liberals will be celebrating your new Preident of the “Bastion of Democracy”, according to the (Australian State Broadcaster) ABC!!.

    I’m curious, but is he your new Blair?

  46. I still don’t get how Trump can stay in office for the next two weeks. Not only because of his connection to what just happened but because it leaves the US vulnerable. He is weakened far more than a lame duck but still officially has the power. Confusion could ensue if rapid decisions need to be made should major international or domestic crises arise.

    How can Pence, the cabinet and Congress allow their country to wait out the fortnight in this malaise? Russia, China and others will be war gaming options right now while US leaders fiddle and fumble.

    Pence must take over.

  47. I don’t rate the chances of Trump being done by the 25th.
    Which is a pity because it would neatly prevent him from pardoning himself.

    Quite possible that Pence is using the threat of a 25th against Trump to pacify him.

  50. If Trump ramps it from here there will be many dead.

    The Capitol attack gives the authorities the right to shoot to kill.

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