Essential Research: leadership ratings, foreign and industrial relations

Some gloss comes off Scott Morrison’s still impressive personal ratings, and respondents prove broadly favourable to the government’s handling of disputes with China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which is presumably the last of the year, features the pollster’s monthly-or-so leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is down four on approval to 62%, his weakest result since April, and up three on disapproval to 28%; Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 43% and down four on disapproval to 29%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 50-24, narrowing from 53-24.

As it does at the end of every year, the pollster asked respondents if they felt it had been a good or a bad year for various actors, which produces appropriately extraordinary results, particularly so for the Australian economy (a net rating of minus 47%), small business (minus 43%) and “the average Australian” (minus 32%). However, the minus 7% result for “Australian politics in general” was quite a lot better than any recorded over the previous seven years.

Respondents were also asked if Australia’s relationships with various foreign players should become more or less closer, or remain the same. This produces a notably negative result for China, with 49% wanting a less close relationship, 15% more close and 20% the same. Closer relationships are generally desired with, in descending order, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the European Union. Sixty-two per cent considered Australia “the innocent victim of Chinese assertion in restricting trade on certain products, but a non-trivial 38% felt Australia had “made itself a target by publicly criticising the Chinese government”. Fifty-six per cent felt Scott Morrison was right to demand an apology from the Chinese government over the recent Twitter spat, leaving 44% of respondents (the smart ones) favouring the alternative that he “should have let the issue be handled
through diplomatic channels”.

A question on the federal government’s proposed workplace relations reforms finds 52% expecting they will favour employers and businesses, 17% that they will favour employees, and 31% that they will strike a balance between the two. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1071.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

844 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, foreign and industrial relations”

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  1. Lizzie @ #736 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 8:00 pm

    Late Riser

    Corruption and incompetence seem to be two words Albo finds it impossible to pronounce.

    Remember how he denied being aware of corruption. That drew a gasp from the front row.

    You’re an early riser but if you’re still about, I protect my spleen and don’t watch the politics in real time, so I missed that. I hope he sees the opportunity in front of him.

  2. Thank you RHW
    I might add that the golden standard referred to track and trace – which our NSW colleagues continue to do well. We will see over the next few days if it’s excellent record stays intact.

    I am sure you will agree that while we continue to keep the border open to its current degree, this sort of outbreak is the new normal and its containment is the standard that systems will be judged on.

    Unfortunately the random partisan sniping on this blog is an unjust reflection on our colleagues by people with no qualifications or experience in public health.

  3. [‘French President Emmanuel Macron contracts COVID-19.
    A statement issued by the presidential palace on Thursday morning Paris-time said the 42-year-old had been infected but did not provide any further details.’]

  4. Oakeshott Country:

    Thursday, December 17, 2020 at 9:33 pm

    [‘Unfortunately the random partisan sniping on this blog is an unjust reflection on our colleagues by people with no qualifications or experience in public health.’]

    Please stop the pomposity. In my time I’ve seen enough to question the repositories of knowledge, expertise – the surgeon who’s been on the piss on the weekend, operating on an unsuspecting patient on a Monday. If you’re fair dinkum you’d tell the viewer the best day to be operated on – and why.

  5. Cud Chewersays:
    Thursday, December 17, 2020 at 9:29 pm
    LR

    “I just wish they would get the message from WA that testing everyone who flies is entirely feasible.”

    Yes, but…

    For international travellers the requirement is for a 14 day quarantine and 2 tests – the latter on day 11 – because of the delay between coming into contact with covid and becoming infected.

    Testing “on the spot” for domestic arrivals might find some cases but is that enough???

    And what about those travelling by road or train?

    Contrast that with WA’s requirement for anyone from SA or anyone who has met someone from SA in the last 14 days to go into quarantine whilst SA hasn’t had a case in almost 3 weeks.

    Somehow the balance isn’t right.

  6. Mavis
    Not quite sure the point you’re making but it’s certainly up there with your usual contributions at this time of night.

  7. True. Actual photo of Northern Beaches..

    Not needed. You just need to close the Spit and Roseville Bridges, strategically place a road block on Mona Vale Road and shut down the Manly Ferry.

  8. Cud chewer

    Genomic results maybe forthcoming though….

    No news on genomic testing tonight
    We previously were expecting to hear the results of genomic testing on COVID case of the driver in south-west Sydney.

    The results are now expected to be announced tomorrow. It is hoped these results will shed light on the source of this outbreak in Sydney.

  9. Mavis @ #706 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 8:11 pm

    [‘While anyone would be better than Albo, if you want my 2c worth it probably has to be Shorten.’]

    Well, if that’s your best, you’re wrong. It’s with regret to suggest that no Labor pollie has grit, the salesmanship of Morrison – so sad!

    I’m perfectly happy for you to disagree with my suggestion of Shorten. Do you have a better alternative? Of course Labor has some talented MPs, but what it lacks at the moment is leadership, and you can’t seriously contend that Albo has that over Shorten. Labor was much more vocal, aggressive and united under Shorten than it has been since. Yes, Labor under Shorten made some mistakes, and yes, he made some himself – but I reckon he has learned from them – something which Albo has clearly not.

  10. P1, that misses a crucial point. It’s not that Shorten made mistakes, it’s just that he’s generally unelectable.

    Nobody I know who’s not politically engaged (ie, the vast majority) responded positively to him. Something about that weird stilted delivery. Not his fault maybe, but it’s never going to change.

  11. Oakeshott Country:

    Thursday, December 17, 2020 at 10:01 pm

    [‘Not quite sure the point you’re making but it’s certainly up there with your usual contributions at this time of night.’]

    Dear, you know precisely what I’m alluding to, the reference to ‘at this time of night’ not sufficing; and you haven’t answered my question. And you, Spray, sleep well.

  12. I’ll see your ‘random partisan sniping’, OC, and raise you ‘a pompous git’. 🙂

    Ye gods, man, with the way medicine has been commoditised by the Tories, I would have thought a Labor man such as yourself would be the last one going to the ramparts to defend their slipshod handling of this pandemic in NSW!?!

    Anyway, suffice to say, I knew enough NOT to study Medicine.

    Anyway, Mavis is 100% correct to point out the number of medical professionals who have substance abuse problems. Just like any other profession I guess. However, the point is, having done Medicine does not put you above criticism. Everyone makes mistakes. We are all just fallible humans.

  13. Spray @ #775 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 10:11 pm

    P1, that misses a crucial point. It’s not that Shorten made mistakes, it’s just that he’s generally unelectable.

    Nobody I know who’s not politically engaged (ie, the vast majority) responded positively to him. Something about that weird stilted delivery. Not his fault maybe, but it’s never going to change.

    I don’t agree, but that’s fine. Just propose an alternative (and please don’t say ‘Albo’ – whatever anyone thinks of him personally he is clearly not the right person for the job).

  14. PaulTu

    I wouldn’t recommend a single test for people travelling from the northern beaches. For those it would make sense to follow up with a second test. The point of making testing the norm is it makes it easier to extend the system when needed.

    Car share of Sydney to Melbourne trips is about 11 percent. Car share of Sydney to Brisbane is 12 percent. Sydney to Perth is nearly 99 percent. Not that I have anything against requesting people to get tested if they do travel interstate by car. Train travel amounts to zip.

  15. I am still not getting the relevance of doctors with substance abuse to the NSW track and trace teams.

    C@t you have posted some very nasty things about Kerry Chant here and when questioned you admit it’s because she works for a Lib government. Are you now saying that she has a substance abuse problem?

    This sort of think may well be a hit at the Kincumber branch but it is not part of the real world

  16. Victoria

    I’m reminded of the Moss Vale case that they put down as “unknown contact”. It wasn’t until weeks later that they figured out that it was connected to the Liverpool clinic cluster. It took genomic testing and a lot of detective work. Turns out there was a chain of infections involving two intermediate and previously unknown carriers.

    It would be a small miracle to link the NB cluster back to a previous case over a month ago. And if it turns out to be from overseas, damn, that’s gonna be embarrassing eh?

  17. Griff @ #779 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 10:17 pm

    Erk. I hope you aren’t still registered with APRHRA C@tmomma. Such opinion is not professional.

    No I’m not. So, I am free to express myself. I have had enough of professional niceties to last me a lifetime. I always found them entirely hypocritical anyway. I found medical professionals had a way of being critical which observed those niceties but still had a go at people. Why bother being so devious? I prefer not to be.

  18. As for the NSW situation, I see a health system effectively (so far) mopping up political decisions. NSW currently is operating a very LEAN safety system. Efficient and effective until it isn’t. There is safety in redundancy.

  19. Player One @ #782 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 10:17 pm

    Spray @ #775 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 10:11 pm

    P1, that misses a crucial point. It’s not that Shorten made mistakes, it’s just that he’s generally unelectable.

    Nobody I know who’s not politically engaged (ie, the vast majority) responded positively to him. Something about that weird stilted delivery. Not his fault maybe, but it’s never going to change.

    I don’t agree, but that’s fine. Just propose an alternative (and please don’t say ‘Albo’ – whatever anyone thinks of him personally he is clearly not the right person for the job).

    You might not agree P1, but sadly the electorate does.

    And no, I’m not suggesting Albo, I never have. I regret to say that at this stage I don’t know what the best option is.

  20. Cud Chewer @ #786 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 10:21 pm

    Victoria

    I’m reminded of the Moss Vale case that they put down as “unknown contact”. It wasn’t until weeks later that they figured out that it was connected to the Liverpool clinic cluster. It took genomic testing and a lot of detective work. Turns out there was a chain of infections involving two intermediate and previously unknown carriers.

    It would be a small miracle to link the NB cluster back to a previous case over a month ago. And if it turns out to be from overseas, damn, that’s gonna be embarrassing eh?

    Doesn’t the lack of detection in the sewage point to the likelihood of it being from overseas?

  21. Player One:

    Thursday, December 17, 2020 at 10:06 pm

    Mavis @ #706 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 8:11 pm

    [‘Do you have a better alternative?’]

    Yes, I do. Chalmers was talked out of contesting the leadership following Labor’s defeat. Although he doesn’t set the world on fire, he’s a banana bender, the state where the next election could be won, Labor only holding 6 of 30 seats – all other states pale in comparison. If, as I think, Albanese has lost his mojo, it’s time to pass the baton to someone who, though lacking the requisite oomph at the moment, could well morph into a competent Labor leader. If Labor was confident in the leadership of Albanese, at least three of the senior Shadows would’ve defended him in the climate of media destabalisation; that they haven’t speaks volumes.

  22. Oakeshott Country @ #783 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 10:20 pm

    I am still not getting the relevance of doctors with substance abuse to the NSW track and trace teams.

    C@t you have posted some very nasty things about Kerry Chant here and when questioned you admit it’s because she works for a Lib government. Are you now saying that she has a substance abuse problem?

    This sort of think may well be a hit at the Kincumber branch but it is not part of the real world

    No I am not saying that about her. I just made the point, when Mavis’ well-known problems were highlighted for no good reason, by way of a critique of his statement, that pots shouldn’t call kettles black. Plenty of medical professionals have similar sorts of problems too, not specifically Dr Chant(whom I have been critical of, NOT because she works for a Coalition government but because she gets let off lightly cf CHOs from Labor jurisdictions, if she makes a mistake or an incident occurs on her watch).

    I really can’t see why this is controversial because it’s obvious.

  23. Happy Chant deserves to have a substance abuse problem. I’m pretty sure she doesn’t though, because that would have meant experimenting with something a little off piste at some stage in her life. Highly unlikely. Her idea of a good time likely doesn’t extend past nailing a 50 point bonus for laying down all seven tiles in a single scramble move.

  24. Griff @ #786 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 10:24 pm

    As for the NSW situation, I see a health system effectively (so far) mopping up political decisions. NSW currently is operating a very LEAN safety system. Efficient and effective until it isn’t. There is safety in redundancy.

    I know that NSW has done the heavy lifting wrt quarantining travellers from overseas and they have generally done a good job, with a few slip-ups that were caught before they got out of control, however, my observation has been that the NSW Coalition government has taken a laissez faire lite approach to restricting its citizens’ behaviour and practices and that is why COVID-19 continues to break out here. Then they just come along and tidy it up. Very well, it has to be said, but I would rather a few more social strictures and a few less surprises like the one we have now.

    Plus, we never seem to get the full story when problems occur.

  25. If you are referring to this:
    …by way of a critique of his statement, that pots shouldn’t call kettles black.

    I meant in the general sense wrt ‘medical professionals’ in general…who may not have a substance abuse problem themselves…criticising someone who does…because a lot of their medical brethren…but not necessarily THEM…do have substance abuse problems.

  26. C@tmomma:

    Thursday, December 17, 2020 at 10:24 pm

    Griff @ #779 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 10:17 pm

    [‘Erk. I hope you aren’t still registered with APRHRA C@tmomma. Such opinion is not professional.’]

    Oh, please stop it. On an anonymous blog, one can say more or less what one likes. And what an effing cheek to suggest another’s not behaving professionally! Another one who should go to bed.

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