Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor in Queensland

The last Newspoll of the Queensland election campaign suggests Labor is about as well placed as it was in 2017, although a lot may depend on regional variation in the swing.

The Australian brings us a campaign eve Newspoll that will, on top of anything else, be the first real-world test for the poll since YouGov took it over last year. It suggests no swing at all compared with the 2017 election on the two-party vote, with Labor leading 51.5-48.5 – technically a half-point move to the LNP since the last poll a fortnight ago, but that result would have been rounded to a whole number (this one might have been rounded either to a half-point or a decimal place).

The primary votes are Labor 37%, which is unchanged on the last poll and up from 35.4% in 2017; the LNP is down one to 36%, compared with 33.7% in 2017; the Greens are unchanged on 11%, compared with 10.0%; and One Nation is on 10%, which is up one but down from their 13.7% in 2017, despite the fact they are running in nearly every seat this time but only ran in two thirds last time. Breakdowns for the regions and the south-east would have been nice, but no such luck apparently.

The LNP is surprisingly competitive given how the leadership ratings are looking: Annastacia Palaszczuk is up one on approval to 62% and steady on disapproval at 33%, while Deb Frecklington appears not have had a good campaign, with her approval down two to 35% and disapproval up four to 48%. However, Palaszczuk’s 56-30 lead as preferred premier is little changed from the 57-32 she scored a fortnight ago. The poll was conducted from Sunday until earlier today from a sample of 1032.

In light of all that, the following observation from my paywalled piece in Crikey today holds up okay:

For all that though, Labor strategists are being kept awake at night by the path to victory that remains open to the LNP in the same parts of the state that savaged Labor at the federal election.

When the federal seats of central and northern Queensland recorded swings upwards of 10% last year, the effect was certainly demoralising for Labor, but the impact was limited by the fact that there had only been one seat there for them to lose — the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which the party gained by a paper-thin margin in 2016.

At the state level though, the region is so richly endowed with Labor marginals that a locally concentrated swing could deliver the LNP victory even if it loses the statewide two-party vote, as the latest polls suggest.

Last but certainly not least, I believe I’m in a position to promise a functioning live election results facility tomorrow evening, similar in format to my acclaimed effort from the Eden-Monaro by-election, barring unforeseen egregious technical mishaps on either my end or the Electoral Commission of Queensland’s (the latter hopefully having made good its deficiencies from the night of the council elections and state by-elections in February). For anyone whose interest in the result extends to the booth level, this will easily be the best place to view the results, assuming all goes according to plan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

102 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor in Queensland”

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  1. I wonder if the early voting parallel between Qld and USA means anything. In the US election one inference is that early voting represents a high anti-Trump vote. But I’m not sure that can be said for Qld. In the US polls favour the challengers whereas in Qld they don’t. Could early polling just be a response to covid, like the toilet paper run?

  2. I doubt the booth numbers reflect much beyond the the fact that much of the state has already voted. I’m certainly not sending any mood for change or any anger with Labor, but I’m at a traditionally Labor friendly booth in a moderately safe Labor seat in a leafy Brisbane suburb, so I can’t imagine it’s a remotely accurate guide to how things are going more broadly.

  3. Late Riser says:
    Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 1:54 pm

    “I wonder if the early voting parallel between Qld and USA means anything. In the US election one inference is that early voting represents a high anti-Trump vote. But I’m not sure that can be said for Qld. In the US polls favour the challengers whereas in Qld they don’t. Could early polling just be a response to covid, like the toilet paper run?”

    I think there’s a longer-term trend towards early voting anyway, partly because there’s much improved options for and access to in-person early voting that’s been growing over the last decade or so. But certainly the pandemic is also helping to change the way people are voting, this is possibly particularly true in Qld since we had local government elections in late March, right at the start of the covid shutdown.

    I don’t believe there’s much correlation between voting intention or motivation and early voting here. Compulsory voting means most people view voting as a chore (meaning something that has to be done, whether you enjoy it or not) rather than something that you need to particularly engage in. In that view, getting your voting done early at a convenient time is the most efficient option, and you can then tune out and ignore the cacophony of electioneering until the polling is done.

  4. giving a Black Power salute was one of the most foolish things a Greens parliamentarian in Australia has ever done.

    The clip of that will be in pretty much every “No” commercial in the indigenous referendum.

    Oh, and an echoing fade of “Always, Always Will Be. Aboriginal Land”

    That will destroy the “Yes” campaign…

  5. Nothing heard from ON?
    You need to get out more.
    West of Ipswich and north of Gympie has the ranga on every 2nd billboard and in all the local rags.

    But they don’t matter because it’s not inner city.

    Riiiight.

  6. I seem to remember the greens over egging their expectations in South Brisbane last time same candidate but it didn’t eventuate. Has something happened to change things there?

  7. Chris:

    The main differences are that Jackie Trad has been the centre of a whole lot of controversy since last election, and that the LNP are now preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor.

    Personally, I think she could still pull through, but it’ll be damn tough. In her favor is that the Greens candidate is pretty underwhelming – were she up against, say, Kirsten Lovejoy or Andrew Bartlett, I reckon she’d be stuffed.

  8. “Personally, I think she could still pull through, but it’ll be damn tough. ”

    ***

    Trad has two huge advantages; incumbency and the donkey vote (first on ballot, see below). As I said before too, it’s always tough to take a seat off a high profile incumbent. Going to be a big ask but I reckon we can do it. Going to be close either way. We’re certainly the underdogs up against the Labor machine!

    https://i.ibb.co/nRgs2ZL/sbhtv.png

  9. “I seem to remember the greens over egging their expectations in South Brisbane last time same candidate but it didn’t eventuate. Has something happened to change things there?”

    ***

    Amy MacMahon won a massive 11%+ swing for the Greens in South Brisbane at the last election.

  10. RM, One Nation signage is one thing, but they have no media presence and The Ranga hasn’t had anything to say – at least not on the Sunshine Coast and its hinterland. She’s too busy counting her ECQ money at $3-odd per vote. I repeat, with her so-called rusted-on base, she ought to be doing much better. Why isn’t she having a Trump-like whinge about not wrecking the economy (and stuff people’s health)? A Trump-Hanson failure will please me greatly.

  11. Jaeger @ #64 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 3:11 pm

    Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland @BOM_Qld

    LIFE THREATENING STORMS IN #SEQLD, including #GoldCoast #Logan #Brisbane #Ipswich councils with 13cm HAIL reported at Hillcrest. Stay safe #Queensland. Listen to @QldFES
    advice and ABC radio for the latest as well as our warnings at http://ow.ly/zvhj50C7QIO.

    https://twitter.com/BOM_Qld/status/1322401454586531840?s=20

    13cm! We got off lightly then. Next one about to hit…

  12. My prediction- ALP around 50 seats. I reckon there will be seats lost and seats gained to get there.

    Honest truth from my perspective is neither party deserves to win.

  13. “RM, One Nation signage is one thing, but they have no media presence and The Ranga hasn’t had anything to say”

    @Ross

    I’m wondering Pauline Hanson has gone into hiding because she came out hard against the border closure. But now realises that position goes against majority of public opinion. So she is quietly deflecting attention away from it by keeping a low profile.

    Someone has suggested One Nation preferences percentages going to the LNP may be effected. As there is a lot of older regional voters who support Hanson but also support the Border Closure and would back Labor’s consistent position to keep it closed.

  14. There are two Green candidates running in South Brisbane. McMahon for the Green Party and Meyer as an Ethical Green. Meyer has run for the Greens previously and was preselected to run in Clayfileds this time. There was some sort of problem and he was dumped.

    The split in the green vote may help Trad. McMahon is preferencing Trad ahead of Meyer. I don’t know what Meyer is doing with his preferences.

  15. Peter Stanton @ #74 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 4:10 pm

    There are two Green candidates running in South Brisbane. McMahon for the Green Party and Meyer as an Ethical Green. Meyer has run for the Greens previously and was preselected to run in Clayfileds this time. There was some sort of problem and he was dumped.

    The split in the green vote may help Trad. McMahon is preferencing Trad ahead of Meyer. I don’t know what Meyer is doing with his preferences.

    We saw a small but glossy letterbox drop from Meyer in Maiwar. Though maybe it’s not so odd given that’s the Greens only current seat in parliament. It was very negative towards the Greens in general and Berkman in particular. The link to Meyer’s website told an kinder story. My wonder is who might have paid for the glossy.

  16. Palaszczuk closed the borders, but allowed an alleged Hollywood sex offender, knuckle dragging footballers and selected people in the right financial bracket, in, but refused to help baby that was dying.
    Trad is as dishonest as the day is long, the only reason she is in because, Palaszczuk is controlled by union filth

  17. ALP have shorten in betting with Bet365 to $1.12 but being a Hung Parliament has also shorten to $2.25. So by that I think betting markets do not have a clue who is winning but I have put a small wager on LNP at $5.00.

  18. In the marginal ALP held electorate of Mansfield (margin 1.6%) neither the independent Peter Wirth nor the Legalise Cannabis candidate Brendan Taylor have issued How to vote cards. That leaves Greens to ALP and Clive Palmer’s UAP to LNP with PHON issuing a split ticket.

  19. “Interesting article with political experts claiming if Deb Frecklington falls short at this election she will stay on as leader.”

    She will fall short, and if they stick with her they will fail miserably again just like the Springborg years. Although they have a couple of years to sort out a leader. This was the LNP’s election to win and they have failed. By the opinion polls despite all the coronavirus hype Labor have not managed to scoot ahead, which shows how weak they really are as well. I doubt anything will change when Palaszcuk quits and Dick takes over. If no vaccine is coming soon and it seems the talk of a vaccine has gone quiet, then Labor are going to have to make massive changes to the Qld economy, backtrack on a lot of things that were only viable when there was lots of easy money out there. I know Palaszcuk will quit before then and I doubt Dick or Labor in general would do it. Who wants to be in government next year when the federal government starts cutting the free money line?

    LNP must always have a gold coast/Brisbane based leader preferably with roots elsewhere in the state to get the regional vote. If Labor lose heavily in the regions which is a distinct possibility it only means by 2024 the LNP will have to win Brisbane seats to get government. It is just a pity Queensland now is such a divided state caused by divisive politicians hell bent on retaining government. Where people in SEQ do not give a stuff about others in the state and vice versa.

  20. Well not long now our great LNP will be in government and will stay there for 15 years and deb fecklington will be the best premier qld as had

  21. I will laugh and laugh if Wayne’s prediction comes true.

    LNP to win ten seats this election. Six in regional Queensland and four around Brisbane. As well as holding all the ones they currently have.

    In 2024 due to great economic management they win another eight seats. In 2028 they lose two seats.

  22. Outside left, in 2035 a rogue asteroid strikes parliament and tragically all of Brisbane is destroyed. Government collapses and a new feudal system springs out of the ground and much of Queensland is reverted to a simple village existence.

  23. “Asking as a newcomer …

    Is Wayne a pisstake, or for real?”

    ***

    Disturbingly, he was pretty much the only poster here to correctly predict the outcome of the 2019 federal election.

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