Queensland election minus two days

Polls and betting markets appear to be breaking in Annastacia Palaszczuk’s favour, although Labor remains nervous about its brace of marginal seats in north Queensland.

Two days out from an election that is in a sense already half over, the rate of pre-polling and postal voting being what it is:

• Hot on the heels of similar polling from New South Wales and Victoria, the Financial Review yesterday published results of a voting intention-free poll from Ipsos. The most striking finding is that “half” believe Annastacia Palaszczuk would do a better job on the economy compared with 26% for LNP leader Deb Frecklington, a question on which conservatives traditionally have the edge. Sixty-five per cent of respondents took a positive view of Palaszczuk’s handling of coronavirus, including 38% very satisfied, with “only one in five” dissatisfied. The poll also found 40% support and 30% opposition to Adani’s Carmichael coal mine, with support at 45% in regional Queensland and 35% in “the cities”, which I take to mean the south-east. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1003.

• There is increasing talk about the prospects of independent Claire Richardson is the southern bayside seat of Oodgeroo, which Mark Robinson holds for the LNP on a margin of 7.2% over Labor. Richardson is the owner of a local engineering consultancy, and narrowly failed to unseat LNP incumbent in the Redlands mayoral election in March. A “senior LNP strategist” quoted in The Australian yesterday went so far as to say that Robinson would win the seat.

• Writing in Crikey earlier this week, Madonna King reported a view among Labor strategists that coronavirus had secured them the “grey vote”, reflecting a dynamic that appears to be playing out in the United States. This is reflected in Labor’s hopes of snaring LNP-held seats on Gold Coast (Bonney, Currumbin and Burleigh, in ascending order of margin) and Sunshine Coast (Caloundra and Glass House).

• On a less optimistic note for Labor, Annastacia Palaszczuk visited Mackay on Tuesday, where the LNP is talking up its chances despite an 8.3% margin and its long record as a Labor stronghold. An LNP source quoted in the Courier-Mail claimed support for Labor was “tanking in the regions”.

• The first of two leaders debates was held last night, with the other to follow tomorrow, with 53% of the hand-picked audience of 47 undecided voters saying the debate had made them more likely to vote Labor compared with 30% for the LNP, which I guess means 25 to 14. However, it would appear 23 of those selected to attend failed to show up on a night of inclement weather, thereby serving as a proxy for the nearly half of Queensland voters who are in no position to be influenced by the debate since they have voted already.

Kevin Bonham reviews the betting markets so I don’t have to: “Labor favourite in 44 seats, LNP 39, KAP 3, GRN 3, ONP 1, IND 1. One ALP/LNP tie, one LNP/KAP tie. Only 6 seats (inc Whitsunday) with incumbent not favourite. IND almost favourite in Oodgeroo“. I have a notion that things might have shifted further in Labor’s favour in the two days since that was written, as Sportsbet is offering just $1.25 on Labor to form government compared with $3.75 for the LNP, whereas not that long ago the markets gave the LNP the edge.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

94 comments on “Queensland election minus two days”

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  1. Good luck to all Qld candidates committed to acting to stop climate change and political corruption. I guess that means go Greens. I hope that means go Labor but I’m getting mixed messages.

  2. Frecklington would be receiving a poisoned chalice from her own party if the LNP win. Immediately they would demand that Qld start to open up at a rate much quicker then what it would under Palaszczuk with both Morrison and the LNP business ghouls expecting things to “go back to normal” immediately.
    The subsequent spike in Covid cases would then belong entirely to the LNP and I suspect they’d fumble to a degree that would both be tragic and comical.
    Somehow I know the Murdoch press would try to spin such an event as being a Labor responsibility (didn’t have enough kryptonite in store, should have planned to have more ER places etc) but I can’t see Frecklington having the strength of character to stand up to her own party in Qld let along Morrison.
    Frecklington would be thrown under a bus within a few months.

  3. Re: the debate, from The Guardian:

    But of course there was a small bit of controversy – one of the ‘undecided voters’ who was allowed to ask a question was LNP women’s executive member Marilyn Wilson. After she was identified by people watching, she was disqualified from voting on the winner.

  4. https://www.mclarenwilliams.com.au/2020/10/28/minister-hands-special-statement-of-expectations-to-the-accc-what-is-going-on-behind-the-scenes/

    Thanks Gary, I did notice the other day a headline which said broadband had been depoliticised or something: Really?

    Let’s see if real soon now (2023), zone 1/ 75% of premises will have superfast to ultrafast speeds, reliably, affordably.
    Today our zone 1 suburb downunder is one of those where FoxTel/ Telstra HFC/ Nbnco HFC share the nineties cabling to the CMTS, in the meantime I note 5G [doing superfast/ hundreds of Mbps at about AUD75 per month] has advanced to the next suburb[, and new LEO sat constellations doing 150 Mbps at USD99 per month are in beta]!

    And the rest (such as in zone 2 or 3: Elvis, Baaanaby (across the ditch I think it is 80% fibre, 20% wireless, just CFH, telcos/ suppliers, no middleman), Pauline, Bob, Clive … anyone)?

    … if the pandemic has shown anything, WFH/ streaming/ gaming isn’t going away, and neither are browsing/ emailing and calling.
    Thinking bigger, I’d vote for keeping the monarchy, the states, and outsourcing the FIFO that is Canberra ACT to Wellington or Ottawa or Singapore or Taipei.
    For certain, neither major party has shown they can handle broadband, which leaves minor parties or independents.

  5. “Frecklington would be receiving a poisoned chalice from her own party if the LNP win. Immediately they would demand that Qld start to open up at a rate much quicker then what it would under Palaszczuk with both Morrison and the LNP business ghouls expecting things to “go back to normal” immediately.
    The subsequent spike in Covid cases would then belong entirely to the LNP and I suspect they’d fumble to a degree that would both be tragic and comical.
    Somehow I know the Murdoch press would try to spin such an event as being a Labor responsibility (didn’t have enough kryptonite in store, should have planned to have more ER places etc) but I can’t see Frecklington having the strength of character to stand up to her own party in Qld let along Morrison.
    Frecklington would be thrown under a bus within a few months.”


    The Murdoch press has a way of going easy on the LNP. Just look at the federal debt from the Liberals which has doubled from the time Rudd and Gillard were in office and nothing but silence from their end. If they kept the borders closed there may be pressure from their supporters, but I doubt they would face the same scrutiny from Newscorpse as Labor has.

    I think your overstating the poison chalice argument but even if it is a poison chalice Deb Frecklington doesn’t have a choice. If she loses this election, that’s it for her, she won’t be getting another chance.

  6. Very true nightwatchman. They went very easy on Cando Newman. An editor who mildly took him to task about a few things in the early days of his regime was replaced quick smart by an LNP cheer leader type. Stuff that Labor had been pilloried about was glossed over under Cando issues that would have monopolized the angry front pages for days during ALPs time were relegated to small stories on page 8 during Cando.the ultimate being when the LNP Government voted itself a 20% wagerise and the Courier used this as an opportunity to criticize then opposition leader Palaszczuk for not accepting it ( in light of 20000 PS workers being sacked) this was gobsmacking as I’ve never seen a paper defend a Politicians payrise before. The thing is that it’s easy to ignore the CM but it’s take on things gets a run in ABC Radio and news bulletins and the relentless campaigns they run against progressive people find their mark . There is a new news website named inQueensland which seems to be a bit centre right like the CM of old. Its banner says news not sledging.Sledging non conservatives is what Murdoch has reduced the outlets in his stable to.

  7. When conservatives lose the argument over economy it is usually over. It is very bad sign for LNP when ALP government is more trusted on economy.

  8. The weekly and weekend Brisbane newspapers are a pale shadow of what they used to be decades ago. I’m surprised a newspaper can endorse one side or the other of the political spectrum when they haven’t been able to analyze how a party plans to pay for their campaign promises. I’m not sure such endorsements hold much sway over the voting public anyway.

  9. Not long now for our great LNP to win the qld state election and deb feckington will be the best premier qld as never have and also reopened our state borders and get things moving again…..

  10. I think you are right interested onlooker. The CM is known as a partisan LNP alligned player in Q.and the fact Labor was able to win in 2015 despite the CMs fanatical support of their team, the LNP ,shows it doesn’t decide every election, but it can create a sense of crisis by blowing up small issues and harping on them .The cowed and compliant ABC will also usually run with these issues in a futile attempt to curry favour with the LNP which has a long and vengeful memory.

  11. Wayne says:
    Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 2:48 pm
    Late riser

    You know our great LNP will win on Saturday and deb feckington will be a great premier

    Who is this “deb feckington” of whom you speak?

    There is a person by the name of Deb Frecklington who is allegedly the leader of the LNP although whether she is the puppeteer or the puppet is open to question.

  12. Yesterday

    As at 3:30pm, more than 80,000 electors have voted today, bringing the total number of early votes cast so far to over 950,000.


    Nearest guess there should be about 3.25M voters in Qld this year.
    * Queensland Enrolment – 29 August 2016 3,084,596
    * Predicted Queensland Enrolment – 29 August 2023 3,427,967
    p. 153

  13. Excerpts from today’s election report in 9fax

    Some words may have been exchanged?

    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has now walked back her comments yesterday that Deb Frecklington would have opened the border “months ago” but Labor has accused her of doing damage control.

    When you spin…

    LNP admits New Bradfield Scheme and Bruce Highway expansion up to 15 years away
    … shadow treasurer Tim Mander admits those projects are 10-15 years off, under the party’s costings scheme, revealed on Thursday. “This wasn’t just about creating jobs for the next three to four years, but the next 10-15 years”

    What’s an “efficiency dividend” again?

    Among the savings measures is an efficiency dividend of 2 per cent across all departments with the exception of Queensland Health.

  14. The LNP is in panic mode on the Gold Coast. There’s a swing on towards Labor and they know it. Currumbin and Bonney are gone. Coomera, Theodore and Burleigh are 50/50 bets but my prediction is we’ll grab all 3. Mr Crandon was ruffled yesterday in Coomera and took his anger out on an innocent Labor poll worker. Totally unacceptable and unprofessional. This verbal tirade was witnessed by at least 20 people including potential voters and was an example of why the people are finally ready to #GiveMickTheFlick

  15. Fran Kelly this morning, who it must be mentioned is a generally fairly patronising and not very knowledgeable or interested contributer when it comes to Qld. said how the election promises to be very close.Not according to Sportsbet who now has ALP at $1.40 and LNP at $7.50 to form majority government, if I were Wayne I would plunge the lot on Deb to pull off the win. Maybe better listening to M with these odds coming to light. Unless of course Sportsbet is listening to M and he’s wrong?

  16. M’s not wrong, we’re looking at an LNP blood bath. Fran Kelly a great broadcaster, but like most of the ABC “top brass” absolutely clueless when it comes to Qld. I think Labor can kiss Barron River goodbye but otherwise hold up very strongly north of Gladstone and nail Whitsunday while we’re at it (with the possible, but by no means certain, loss of Townsville – the one individual seat, as opposed to all three electorates). Disaster writ large for LNP in coastal Qld from Hervey Bay south – Bundaberg, Caloundra, Glass House, Pumicestone, Currumbin, Burleigh, Theodore all look tough for a weak and unpopular leader like Frecklington, and much as you’d like to think Chatsworth and Clayfield are in play, I doubt this time. For mine, shaping like a 53/47 result for AP with 56-60 seats

  17. Is there a stage beyond being totally delusional?

    Donald Trump has brazenly listed one of the highlights of his presidency as “ending the Covid-19 pandemic”. Yesterday the country recorded 78,981 new coronavirus cases, the third highest day on record since the pandemic began. 996 new deaths were recorded.


  18. I think you feel asleep and had a dream there Clive. Labor will win in some way, but it will be closer then that.

    But it would be an interesting situation. With a such a large majority, the government would have hell trying to keep all their new members in line. There would be plenty demanding their forty pieces of silver for the win. A good opposition leader could troll them all for four years, poking them all with a stick watching them all implode, especially when the federal government starts the cut backs to the states to pay off the corona debt. Queensland would be so far in debt by them, maximum pressure could be applied by a smart opposition leader. Pointing out the huge interest bill and how that money is just wasted. Pointing out the waste. A leader with a good memory and switched on to how to provoke and placate people.

    Add in a second wave and no vaccine in sight and you would end up a real disaster. We have seen how Palaszczuk can not handle things when they get tough. Often throws public servants under a bus when it is appropriate. Never takes responsibility for anything, but then never fixes anything either.

    What does Wayne Goss, Anna Bligh and Campbell Newman have in common. They were all premiers who did unpopular but right things and got punished for it by the electorate

    What does Peter Beattie and Anastascia Palaszczuk have in common. They did nothing, talked a lot and people initially loved them for it until they were voted out. Now most people despise Peter Beattie. The same will happen to Palaszczuk.

    I assume there will be an opinion poll in some newspaper tomorrow morning. Be surprised if none are done before Saturday.

  19. Peter Beattie was never voted out neither will be Palaszczuk ( should she win in Saturday). Beattie is a rogue but much admired by most if not all. Palaszczuk will give it up before she loses her popularity and hand over to most likely Dick. LNP will still be struggling to find a Messiah. Mander is a log so maybe Crisafulli might pull it off in four years. Maybe they need to look at the BCC again could the mayor be moderate enough?

  20. Just one clear-cut prediction Paul? I’ve given some pretty specific predictions and I stand by them – you’ve given none, beyond One Nation/LNP talking points

  21. The next LNP leader has to be a liberal, totally untouched by the Newman era. SE Qld won’t have a bar of a bush National like Feckless Deb. Unfortunately the Nats will revolt and I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of them quit to join Katter or One Nation after the election. See the member for Callide. If he doesn’t quit the LNP and join Katter I’ll eat my hat.


  22. Oodgeroo is gone for the LNP. Get on Claire Richardson the independent at $1.90 on Sportsbet. Mark Robinson, the far right nutter, will be looking for a new job come Monday. Labor are running dead in the seat and will ensure 100% of their preferences go to Claire.

  23. Sportsbet was paying $5.00 this afternoon for Labor in Coomera. That’s some good odds for a seat that the LNP appears to have given up on.

  24. So last night the Greens under the orders of Jonathan Sri stole a banner from the TLC building, defaced it and dumped a pile of horse shit in front of it in an attack on Jackie Trad.

    This is the Greens.

    I’m sure that Amy McMahon and the Greens party will win South Brisbane. But i think we should all take note of how of low they are willing to stoop.

  25. I spoke to some people I know from Stradbroke is. a few weeks ago. They mentioned this lady as making some waves against the heavily fundamental Christian member. These people ain’t ALP but were heartily sick of the narrow minded local prosperity Christian member. Many of these LNP members are super arrogant and believe they will be elected no matter what. Look at Sophie Panopolous Mirabella down there, she was a hardcore character who thought she couldn’t lose – boy oh boy was she wrong. It seems that LNP voters won’t come at the ALP but will consider a decent independent. here’s hoping this religious dude goes the way of his erstwhile neighbouring mp ” the plonker” who was also one of these prosperity Christians who spoilt a decent glass of wine in an attempt to impress his extra marital girlfriend.

  26. My hope for Queensland is that the voters realise that the only way to prevent Katter / Greens party / One Nation chaos is to elect a strong and stable Labor majority government.

    Without a doubt we saw this in Victoria. When the Greens were claiming a balance of power “victory” and dictating all the ministries they would have in the last week of the campaign the vote swung hugely behind Labor as the only party of government.

    I hope we see it again in queensland.

  27. I have ALP on 43 seats, LNP 43 seats, KAP 3, GRN 2, ONP 1 and IND 1 with LNP winning Townsville, Mudingburra, Barron River, Keppel and the Greens winning South Brisbane. The only seat ALP wins is Pumicestone. This is probably the best scenario for the LNP with it trying to hold seats in the Sunshine and Gold Coast. If it does then the LNP can form a Coalition Government with the help of KAP and ONP. There will be swings to the ALP in the SE Corner but not many seats but there will be a bigger swing in the regions which will cost the ALP Government. Time will tell ??? Might change with further polling in the next few days but also suspect the ALP will win the 2PP vote by 51/49 to 52/48.

  28. Damo you could well be right, but it doesn’t feel like you are right. The ALP have a very popular leader, have performed extremely well during Corona pandemic and have out campaigned the really lacklustre opposition. If the LNP win this one under these circumstances Labor will never win again. On paper what you present especially the nightmare Townsville scenario seems right considering the Media’s concentration on this. But if you consider the evidence on face value the LNP will lose and deserve to.

  29. “I think Labor can kiss Barron River goodbye but otherwise hold up very strongly north of Gladstone and nail Whitsunday while we’re at it”

    Labor is not a chance in Whitsundays in my opinion. I think they are more of a chance in Barron River then they are in Whitsundays. They dumped the Whitsundays candidate and did a captains pick for a candidate who had only joined the party for a couple of weeks. It led to two branches closing and the dumped Labor candidate to publicly endorse the KAP candidate. I think Whitsunday is most likely the first LNP gain, there only resistance maybe from KAP. I can’t see Jason Costigan being in the mix to hold the seat either.

  30. “Just one clear-cut prediction Paul?”

    Labor will end up with the same number they have now +3 or -3. Somewhere in that range. What ever they might lose they might gain somewhere else. There will be one or two more independents added. One Nation might lose their only seat. LNP will not achieve much win some, lose some. End up similar, maybe even one or two less. The big swings are not going to happen. Palaszczuk was not popular before, I cannot see a huge number of people forgetting her past history, on top of that compulsory preferential voting gets rid of the wild swings we saw in 2012 and 2015. So Labor will form a government of some form. The sun will come up Sunday morning, the prize for worst unemployment rate in the country will always have Queensland as a frontrunner for the monthly prize. The debt will be 105-110 billion in four years. A newman or Kennett will be required, but it will not happen as no politician would be game.

    While many are saying “but she saved us”. You have to remember that can be a negative in itself, as for example where I am, there has never been any virus in the wild, we do not think about it. We do not worry about it, we think about other things. Like the unemployment rate and the debt and the extreme regulatory regime strangling Queensland. As there is no virus, the same as in Northern Territory, New South Wales, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania, we do not shiver in fear while cowering in a cupboard thanking the goddess palaszczuk kept us safe.

  31. Seeing it from Adelaide I do not think she is popular, she might be to some Queenslanders but what has she done but kept Covid in control, what else has she done ? The same goes for the Liberal Party here in South Australia, they are also a do nothing Government. The only state that has not kept Covid under control is Victoria and if you go buy the polls Andrews is still popular. I think the Opposition Leader is so unpopular that compared to Palaszczuk she does not rate. There is the chance of extra seats being lost in the SE by the LNP but we will have to see. Also on a side note an ALP victory in the state will not damage the Federal LNP Government but improve it chances at the next election, Queensland again will vote LNP Federally against ALP at State elections. It will be hard in these times to vote out Governments but if they are not doing a good job there is a chance eg Trump

  32. “I have ALP on 43 seats, LNP 43 seats, KAP 3, GRN 2, ONP 1 and IND 1 with LNP winning Townsville, Mudingburra, Barron River, Keppel and the Greens winning South Brisbane. The only seat ALP wins is Pumicestone. ”

    Your math’s don’t add up on your scenario because if Labor wins Pumicestone then they have 44 seats. Right now Labor has 48 seats in the parliament. And if they were too lose 5 and gain 1 that makes it 44 seats. Even then though 44 seats could still be manageable as the 2 Greens MP’s and the Noosa independent would likely form with Labor. That would get the magic number of 47 seats and they wouldn’t have to attempt to negotiate with KAP to form a minority government.

  33. Also Opposition Leaders are always not so popular, I can not remember one that was other than Rudd 2007. I know there are others like Hawke 1983, Howard 1996 etc but it is rare. It usually comes when the Government is past it use by date and change is in the air. So maybe this Government might have 4 more years going by the polls.

  34. Sorry you are right ‘Political Nightwatchman’ It is 44 ALP, 42 LNP, KAP 3, GRN 2, ONP 1 and IND 1. Therefore there will be no real chance of a LNP minority with the ALP and GRN forming the Government. That was my best scenario for the LNP.

  35. Labor is now into $1.20 after starting the campaign at $2.00. I have never seen a shortening of odds so drastic. And it has occurred with limited polling, and what polling there is showing 52/48 in two party preferred terms, which is not conclusive.

    That said, the ALP has to win this one.

  36. “it’s all about the vibe” The ALP will win. I usually bet on elections and get them right but this one is hard. I think the ALP at the moment are too short but if they get out to $1.40, I would put some money on them. I have done some seat betting and put quite a bit on ALP winning Maryborough at $1.83 on Bet365 it is now $1.53 and is only $1.10 on Sportsbet, with the main competition coming from One Nation. Seems a good bet to me even at the odds of $1.53

  37. The myth that Sportsbet gets it right is a furphy. The odds on ALP forming a government in 2015 About $ 7.00. yet they did. Similar in an SA election around this time with Weatherall winning a close one. If things are close usually governments win. Any evidence we get usually is patchy but the internal polling must show Palaszczuk as popular as she is on every poster, actually every published poll agrees, with her ahead by 30 points in head to head contest.Nothing other than seat betting points to the LNP being close.even the one poll of the seat of mundingburra shows it neck and neck. Also Damo, you would not know from the SA standpoint just how unpopular rural Nats are to the SEQ voter. Deb is a rural Nat from the Bible belt from whence the gone but not forgotten or lamented Joh sprung. My best guess would be a loss of three regional seats and pick up of three or more in SEQ but loss of South Brisbane to the greens. It could even be much better for Labor if some of the positive feedback about older voters abandoning the LNP in places like Gold Coast, Sunshine coast ,Fraser coast because of Corona virus is true. Also several commenters on here like Clive and M have bullish stories of Labor doing really well on the ground in places like the normally conservative Gold Coast. There could also be an upset in Oodgeroo, an affluent seat with an narrow minded,pig headed,bigoted born again Christian in the seat and a progressive centre right independent in with a real chance. Maybe up north as well the protest vote will go Katter rather than LNP.

  38. This election is over. Labor will win. I’ve worked every day on pre-polls on the Gold Coast and I’m not bullish, but the LNP are done here. People tell me as they come to vote that they are sick of the LNP so-called “Independents” running the GC city council as well as the lazy, take the seat for granted state LNP members. They do NOTHING then expect people to be satisfied with that. In Coomera, we have witnessed the most desperate, despicable behaviour by an MP to try and win. If anything it’s going to backfire and cost him votes. He’s been here for 11 years and even though he was in government from 2012-2015 Labor has done more for the area then he could ever dream of. Yet he still claims the credit. He’s never had a portfolio, parliamentary secretary position or anything. He just sat on his backside on the backbench for the last 11 years. This is one Gold Coast LNP MP but you can apply it to all of them.

  39. I do not know the final outcome, but if the LNP look likely to lose seats on the Gold Coast or Sunshine Coast, I do not see how they can form government? If the LNP further lose seats like Oodgeroo or regionals to Katter that makes it even harder. Minority government looks pretty likely either way.

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