Roy Morgan yesterday published an SMS poll crediting Labor with a 51-49 lead ahead of next Saturday’s Queensland election, from primary votes of Labor 36%, LNP 35%, One Nation 12%, Greens 10% and Katter’s Australian Party 2.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday last week from a sample of 1187.
Other happenings:
• Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party has run double page advertisements attacking Labor each day in the Courier-Mail since Sunday, with a half devoted to the government’s “policy-motivated stance” (apparently a bad thing) on COVID-19 and the other to a made-up claim about a Labor plot to introduce a death tax. The Roy Morgan poll had support for the party in statistically significant territory, at less than 0.5%.
• The campaign has been all about north Queensland this week, and in particular about the future of the Bruce Highway. The LNP signature election promise is a $200 million contribution to a dual carriageway from Gympie to Cairns, to which Labor has responded this week by building an alternative route further inland for heavy vehicles. Labor has been mocking the LNP for relying on an $800 million contribution from the federal government, but its own policies encounter much the same issue.
• Also in north Queensland, three Labor candidates have been disseminating campaign material imploring voters to “put the LNP last”, at odds with the party’s official position that that honour should go to One Nation, and with Labor’s attacks on the LNP for favouring both One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party ahead of Labor on its how-to-vote cards. These include incumbents Craig Crawford in Barron River and Brittany Lauga in Keppel, along with Mike Brunker in Burdekin, which the LNP holds on a margin of 0.8%.
• Deb Frecklington yesterday targeted (white) voters in Townsville and Cairns by proposing curfews on children in the two cities, with parents potentially to receive $250 fines if it is broken. All three of Townsville’s seats are held by Labor on tight margins (Townsville by 0.4%, Mundingburra by 1.1% and Thuringowa by 4.1%), as are two of the three seats that cover Cairns (Cairns by 3.3% and Barron River by 1.8%). Townsville in particular is suffering a confluence of high crime and unemployment, as noted in a report in The Australian. While the notion of a curfew evidently has support locally, it has been criticised not just by indigenous and human rights groups, but also by some local police and Katter’s Australian Party, with Hinchinbrook MP Nick Dametto questioning the need for a “police special ops team just to look after stray kids”.
• A “Labor insider” quoted in the Courier-Mail says the party is “not ahead in all the seats we have”, but it hopes to compensate for any losses by poaching Pumicestone, Currumbin, Coomera and Caloundra from the LNP. Both sides are said to be feeling confident about Aspley.
• The Australian reports the Electoral Commission of Queensland expects 1.5 million out of a total of around 3 million votes to be cast as pre-polls. This comes after around 120,000 such votes were cast when voting opened on Monday, compared with an equivalent figure of 29,000 in 2017, with a further 140,000 voting on Tuesday.
I can’t see Clive Palmer getting much bang for his buck out of advertising in the courier. I would say his anti Labor stuff would look reasonable compared to the CM front pages and opinion pieces.
If LNP primary vote on 35%, its not a close race
LNP needs over 40% in the primary , to be a chance of minority government
The LNP campaign has been highly underwhelming and its hard to see them winning government unless the cards fall very luckily their way in the regions. In particular, they need to win all 3 Townsville seats. From Brisbane, that looks hard now, and the youth ‘dog pound’ (great line from the Katters) proposal doesn’t seem to have had a great reaction. However, the reality on the ground may be different.
I think we are now looking at the return of a majority ALP Government and I would not be at all surprised if they hold all their seats apart from South Brisbane. Certainly, the betting markets have the ALP in from $2.00 at the start of the campaign to $1.40.
Coomera will go to Labor. Get on Sportsbet. Paying $5. It’s the largest per capita electorate in the state and is over quota by around 14,000 electors. There’s roughly 43,000 now. A lot of Labor friendly voters up here now. I live in the southern part of the electorate and the growth is just ridiculous in the last 3 years. Coomera will have to be split in 2 for the next state election in 2024 cause they’re predicting 55-60 thousand electors by then.
Labor must be worried they will not get a majority. Rushing back to Townsville.
Steven Miles has gone and slurred every non Labor MP, calling all of then freaks and weirdos. Goes to show how low on talent and how divided Labor is when he was the best they could get for that position. You would think Cameron Dick would be deputy premier.
One thing is certain. Palaszczuk is not going to do an Adern, and that only coronavirus is saving her from defeat. I think if this election was held in over six months time, she would not have had a hope as the economic disaster that is about to unfold happens.
My vibe is that there’s no mood for change. I can see four years time as being more of a challenge for ALP though. Deb F. not a very inspiring leader but that might be my opinions colouring things. If the much touted north Queensland disaster for Labor,precipitated by unruly indigenous kids ( apparently)happens it may end up we have a minority government. LNP have not had happy experiences in this field so maybe slim ALP majority might set them up for a win in 2024?
Clive should be in jail for political interference in a democratic society.
Steven Miles has also said people should not vote on election day and instead pre poll. Which also points that Labor’s vote must be slipping. Courier Mail has on their webpage (I do not subscribe so can only see the headlines) a story about a Labor lobbying scandal and a complaint sent to corruption officials, which if a complaint has gone to the CCC, would be ironic since Labor introduced legislation to parliament to jail any journalist who publishes such information during an election period.
I still think Labor will form a government of some sort. Might be interesting if they need the Greens support, that would tear the left and right Labor apart. Can not see Katter supporting them without major concessions and the removal of some laws Labor passed last year. I think Labor at worst would be hoping to only need the assistance of a friendly left inclined independent.
Paul. Labor are heavily targeting Currumbin, Bonney, Burleigh, Theodore, Coomera, Pumicestone. If they win 3-4 of them it’s game over for the LNP and majority Labor government. There won’t be a minority government of any sort. Labor’s primary vote is steady and the LNP’s is far too low to be any real threat.
Or that they’re advocating the responsible thing given global virus pandemic.
ALP 36, LNP 35, PHON 12, GRN 10, KAP 2.5, SE (Someone else) 4.5.
From this, I’d estimate ALP 2PP as 36 0 4 8 1 2 = 51, so it is close. The Margin of Error is likely to be about 2-3%.
Labor should be reminding the voters of the Newman years. What haven’t the LNP told us? What is the LNP going to cut? Which services? What are they going to sell off?
(EDIT: corrected)
This time around One Nation has been quite inconspicuous here, so it’s likely that the Morgan 12% for the party is an over-estimate. The ALP has produced some important initiatives (e.g. the response to the pandemic) that should attract many PHON voters who in the past used to vote for Labor.
As for Palmer, I can’t wait for him to be trashed into oblivion… But his day of reckoning will actually come when the ALP will return to Government federally at the next election… Then Palmer will learn the true meaning of the words: “Law” and “Taxation”.
In the meantime, at least through watching the ABC, SBS and Channel 7, I see no domination whatever by LNP adds, quite on the contrary, my impression is that the ALP is a bit ahead in number of adds during prime time.
Labor should be reminding the voters of the Newman years.
Given the hard-right Christian faction contesting marginal seats, Labor should be reminding voters of the Bjelke-Petersen years too.
This middle-aged voter has no wish to see progressive policy wound back to that.
covid seems in Aust to predispose to status quo results at the moment. I think the least likely if not impossible result is a lnp majority government. very hard to pick esp look at the townsville seats…. very fractured vote between parties and a close ish result…. eg 51/49 or closer.
For the lnp to win……… everything must go their way and if they tried to form a minority govt it would be very difficult. Are rumours of onp vote share drop.. true?
They absolutely are. Newman’s face – typically next to Frecklington’s and Mander’s – is prominently featured on a lot of campaign material, including the HTV cards. As is Frecklington’s role in Newman’s slew of cuts and sackings.
Near every damn time I’m on YouTube, I see those ads with Palmer’s wife/deputy leader (yes, really) spouting outright lies about a 20% death tax. How does anyone still believe a single thing that blatantly self-serving charlatan has to say?
If all goes well on the 31st, I hope Palaszczuk uses this as an opportunity for some seriously beefed up truth in political advertising laws.
Gee do people forget Palaszczuk voted for and said asset sales was good policy?
Lets remember the Beattie and Bligh years? Why is Labor not telling us how wonderful the past five years were? When Queensland was back then and still is today fighting for the highest monthly unemployment rate. When state debt is ridiculously high. Where Palaszcuk has cut education in Queensland. And Labor in general over the years has cut health services.
To make matters even more absurd, she wants to buy back assets she helped sell.
Lets not just take one side of the story. All we hear from Labor is “we kept you safe” Which is a furphy when you consider all the deaths and violence and crime from drug and alcohol abuse because so many jobs were lost and people turned to substance abuse. There is more then just shutting things down.
In fact I would say Palaszczuk is the queen of shutting things down. Because shutting things down is so easy to do.
ALP looking good at this point at least with the betting agencies, now $1.85 to $4.00 for LNP majority. I think many government workers shudder at the thought of another slash,crash and burn LNP government. This is a large voting bloc especially when you factor in friends and relatives.they see the LNP as a clear and present threat to their lives.LNP will struggle to win these people back. Also I wonder from this poll how LNP will get enough preferences from a primary of 35 percent.
“Paulsays:
Thursday, October 22, 2020 at 2:31 pm”
Paul, don’t be ridiculous. The LNP is toxic in every respect: from pandemic, to the economy, to the environment, to jobs, to social services… and more.
If you are with the Greens, do let us know whether you guys are going to happily embrace preferences from the LNP in South Brisbane in a little deal with the Devil.
If you are with Hanson: good luck, I think that Pauline is coming to the end of her political experience.
If you are with stupid Palmer…. #@%& off!
“When state debt is ridiculously high.”
The problem with this criticism is the conservative commentators on sky news who have a go at state Labor for debt in QLD. Are the same conservative commentators who don’t mention Liberals debt federally. And don’t use the coronavirus as an excuse as the debt federal Labor accrued in government from 2007-2013 was doubled by the Coalition in government from 2013-2019 before the coronavirus even started.
The other thing is Campbell Newman accumulated 17 billion debt during his period. 25 billion was going to be paid back from the asset sales that never eventuated.
I think Paul has been to too many young Lib pissups.
” The LNP is toxic in every respect: from pandemic, to the economy, to the environment, to jobs, to social services… and more.”
And yet you did not address where I said Labor cut education this term, and Labor have historically cut health services to the most disadvantaged and vulnerable. Here is the latest example of Palaszczuk destroying education services https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-10-18/end-of-the-road-for-queensland-ag-colleges/11611372
Here is but one example of Labor cutting health services https://www.murrayvalleystandard.com.au/story/6911847/healthcare-cuts-put-rural-qld-at-risk/
But I am sure those in SEQ are more worried about where to get the best latte. While they tell others in the state they have no connection with how to run their lives.
Tell me who is toxic again? Might need to take off the rose tinted glasses and blinkers and look at the whole state.
A thought on election advertising.
Does anyone under 40 still watch TV?
Paul they all a flock of Labor sheep on here. Can’t expect anything with balance.
If it was not for covid, Anna would be in a lot of strife. Everything in QLD is a disaster bar their mgt of covid. The LNP have to get more negative. There is a heap of material out there and time is running out.
Adern would have been in strife and Gunner would have struggled if not for covid. Thats the reality, these elections are very different from what they could have been.
Looks like the plaintive LNP cry is going to be “We wuz robbed by Covid!”
The ALP represents average people and try to promote egalitarianism. The Libs/Nats believe in an elitist society where generation to generation they and their descendents accumulate more and more and the rest can go hang. Guys like the above conservative inclined commenters support and maybe even revel in this entrenched privilege and will ( with the help of a supportive like minded media)come up with cock eyed disinformation ,screwball cherry picked opinion and straight out jive talk in an effort to pull the wool over average people eyes and convince them to vote against their best interests and vote in favour of the elites best interests. Good on “Youse”for fighting for your own self interest, as this is copy book conservative stuff, but no wool is going to be pulled over my eyes. And if I were to give anyone advice it would be to not take their bait as it’s a fruitless pursuit.
PrincePlanet, you are living in the past. Labor used to be like that.
The shearers that gathered under the tree of knowledge would not recognise the Labor of today, they have lurched so much away from their roots of a fair go for all. It is all about staying in power, stomp on minority groups if it means more votes for you.
I have provided evidence how New Labor treat people, with their cut backs of health services and educational services to some of the most disadvantaged people in the state, yet all I hear is crickets and but LNP. Why is Qld Labor unable to promote what they have done in the past five years? Why are they making all these promises now? Did you notice all ticking time bombs they performed close to the election. Like the $200 million handout to a failing airline that even if the LNP were to win, they will probably not be able to recoup that money. All the secret deals. The secret royalty agreement with Adani, the secret deal to get the AFL. The taxpayer paying the money has no idea what is going on there. The sports rorts of handing grants to Labor electorates by the minister.
All we hear is “but LNP”. Yes I agree Newman was an idiot for the way he did things. I pay a new state government tax he created on my rate notice, while my neighbour with significantly more land pays less because of a stupid quirk Newman put in the laws. (my blocks of land on my rates bill do not all touch each other, while my neighbours significantly greater amount does, so I get hit with multiple taxes, while the neighbour pays once)
But Newman is long gone, time to let go and see that Palsaczuk is just utter rubbish. She did not even know the GST rate for goodness sakes.
Michael, Yes I am also wondering why Frecklington is so weak at attacking Labor’s record. Tony Abbott showed the gold standard on winning from opposition. People might not agree with him, but it worked.
Abbott was a brilliant opposition leader. There is no doubt of that because it worked, the LNP need to go after Labor on everything. Negative works.
Paul @ #27 Thursday, October 22nd, 2020 – 8:21 pm
You’ll have to do a bit better than screwing all the talking points into a ball and throwing it at the keyboard.
I just read the Premier’s announcement of a 2nd inland Bruce Hwy around Charters Tower. This has got to be a joke. This would be involved in taking funds from the main coastal Bruce Hwy. The Bruce north of Gympie is pretty much a goat track and the premier wants to take away future funding to fund an in-lane road. In NSW they thought about making the New England Hwy the main road from Sydney to Brisbane but turfed it when they realised everyone wants to travel along the coast and thats where everyone lives so they have put all the funding into the Pacific Hwy Duplication and bypassed all the towns along the way. It will be fully duplicated all the way in a month or two. The Bruce Hwy should follow the same plan, duplicate and bypass all the way to Cairns. The QLD premier has lost the plot focusing on some crazy inland route.
You would have to give the first two weeks of the campaign to the ALP team. Deb Freckleton seems to be a one woman band and not making much noise at that. The Courier Mail once such a great source of LNP propaganda now seems to have dealt itself out of the game by being too partisan. Once the Courier mails Anti Labor crusades on health etc paid dividends for the LNP now many are hip to their shenanigans.
“Abbott was a brilliant opposition leader. There is no doubt of that because it worked, the LNP need to go after Labor on everything. Negative works.”
Your right Tony Abbott is great at tearing someone down, but has no ability whatsoever in terms of governing.
51-49 is pretty good for the LNP considering their campaign has been an absolute trainwreck. They could still win on those polls. I suppose that’s the power of unrelenting media bias for you.
What some of the conservative advocates on these pages seem to forget is that we realistically have a choice between two parties that can form government ALP and LNP. The ALP has governed in a fairly calm and considered manner these last five years. The previous three under the chaotic standover tactics of Cando,Sweeney, Ros Bates ,Bleegie,Deb F.,Langbroek Et Al Queensland seemed like an out of control asteroid. Most of these guys there now, were there then. How is it going to be different? The LNP will sell electricity assets,sack government workers,loosen environmental protections,wind back reforms. The ALP has built things( CRR, Gold Coast light rail,M1 improvements, Townsville stadium, Bruce highway upgrades and facilitated some of the biggest projects on the board in Australia at the moment like queen’s wharf,eagle Street pier, entertainment precinct and many more) these things would be trumpeted if LNP had a finger in the pie ,but ignored by conservative media and opinionisers on this site because Labor oversaw them. The choice is stark, more of the same moderate and reasonable ALP government or Cando (pt.2 revenge of the LNP) with all of the same search and destroy, ideological crusades and vengeful backroom decision-making, all supported by the mad as a cut snake Courier Mail.
Ahh OK PrincePlanet, if you say so. You seem to be getting worried Labor is not going to win and have had to resort to baseless scaremongering, unless you can say where it is LNP policy to do those things you mention.
Do not worry Palaszczuk will still be premier come November 1.
If the LNP win this, despite the circumstances, an unpopular leader, a sad campaign, and being way behind on other key metrics, what would it say?
Only conclusion would be that Queenslanders really don’t like the Labor Party, or are at least tired of semi permanent State Labor governments. I think there is something to that but probably not completely so yet.
By the way, having followed Queensland elections since 1998, Labor always runs a better campaign (except 2012), although the Springborgian 2009 one wasn’t too bad. Of course, the nadir was their 2015 campaign, the worst I have ever seen, which infamously started with a surf boat for some reason heading out to sea in choppy waters and then got worse. In hindsight, the Faustian bargain of 3 years of Newman for (probably) 10 more years of government has been a good one for Labor.
If there was no Murdoch in QLD, it would look like in NZ.
But just like in UK, where Labour got smashed due to bias media.
In the 9fax web edition today:
October 22, 2020 — 7.08pm
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/lnp-non-committal-on-controversial-youth-curfew-extending-to-south-east-20201022-p567r1.html
The only logic I can see is that the LNP desire to punish kids by forcing them to be where the problem is and punish parents by fining them. (And who decides if a 6 month trial is a success?)
Zerlo
“But just like in UK, where Labour got smashed due to bias media.”
It didn’t help that Labour had a hopeless leader.
Something to look forward to every 4 years.
– The Olympics
– The US Presidential Election
– The Queensland Election
Lucky us.
Kiddy Capture – an excellent way to pay for LNP elections promises.
With a $250 release fee for each captured kid, all LNP spending promises can be expressed in terms Kiddy Captures.
$33Billion for Bruce Highway upgrade = $132million Kiddy Captures.
What could possible go wrong?
Interesting article from the ABC. There is a suggestion the LNP has now given up on a pathway to majority government and is now focusing on the regions. In the hopes of cobbling together a minority government while defending any further losses in South East Queensland.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-23/what-does-lnp-kids-curfew-says-about-partys-qld-election-chances/12802596
watson watch @ #41 Friday, October 23rd, 2020 – 10:22 am
Don’t forget it’s Catch and Release. It brilliantly keeps on giving. And are the kids held hostage until the mums & dads pay up? So many questions.
It’s hard to believe a lot of thought went into this.
Kakuru
Define useless.
Tony Abbott is useless but still got elected due to media
I am not sure how Labor saying the youth crime rate in north queensland is caused by undesirables breeding is going to help them. I am wondering if they are starting to get desperate, as the statement was backed up by a senior government minister.
It was a real odd thing to say in today’s world, even if it were true. You just do not stay stuff like that.
@Paul
Your posts have suggested Labor is ‘worried’ and getting ‘desperate’. LNP from the looks of it have given up on Brisbane. The only two seats Labor seems concerned about in Brisbane a from the Greens in South Brisbane and McConnell.
I tend to think the LNP are only trying for a minority government and have nothing to lose being the underdog. While Labor’s concern is losing majority government. It doesn’t mean they don’t have options in forming minority government either.
But your comments kind of infer the LNP are in the box seat. When the LNP’s pathway to majority government is bordering between ‘shaky’ and ‘non-existent’. Redlands and Aspley are the seats they are realistic chances in SEQ that they didn’t hold last election. Mansfield and Maiwar there no chance in my opinion.
There are currently 48 Labor MPs, 2 Greens and one notionally non-conservative independent. The centre-left need a minimum of 47 seats to form government. This means collectively they can afford to lose up to four net seats. South Brisbane is irrelevant as the Right are not competitive there. Loss of five or more seats will result in a LNP minority propped up by KAP and One Nation (unless the LNP win enough seats to govern as a majority in their own right which is arguably almost a more palatable scenario).
Tomorrow there is also an important state election in British Columbia, Canada, home to Vancouver. The third largest city and state in Canada. The Left are heading towards a landslide win after the last election returned an NDP minority government with the Greens. Current polling has the NDP and the Greens on a combined 58% of the vote (similar to the combined Labour-Green vote in Aotearoa). The Liberal Party, the de facto centre-right opposition at state level are looking at a bloodbath.
‘There are currently 48 Labor MPs, 2 Greens and one notionally non-conservative independent.’
There is only 1 Green MP in Queensland parliament currently, not 2.
Cameron C., I’ve noticed that Canada isn’t faring terribly well with covid, with infections and deaths at (very) roughly 10 times Australia’s. Any idea how that is affecting voters at the state level?
It appears that in Canada, polling at state level shows that there is a strong effect of support coalescing toward incumbents. It is important to note that they still have fewer deaths and infections per thousand inhabitants compared to the USA and Europe and within their region they are considered to have done reasonably well. Also there appears to be no interstate travel restrictions except to the northern territories of Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut.
I correct myself, there is only 1 Greens member in the unicameral Queensland Parliament. Therefore the Centre-Left only have 50 total seats in total and can only afford to lose three net seats. This can easily happen if they lose the marginals in Townsville and Cairns and are unable to make up for this in the Southeast.
That being said, a minority LNP state government propped up by nationalists might not be a bad thing for the country as a whole. At the very least, some sensible Queenslanders will get to see how their state is governed under such a regime and have second thoughts about who they will vote for in the next Federal election. The federal ALP have little chance of ever making any headway if Queensland consistently only gives them 40% of the 2pp vote which results in only a handful of their thirty lower house seats. This is especially so when the only information their people (especially the less educated) are exposed to are the blarings of the Murdochrag Media.