Essential Research: leadership and COVID-19 approval ratings

A narrowing lead for Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister punctuates an otherwise stable picture in Essential Research’s latest set of leadership and COVID-19 performance ratings.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes its monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister is now at 49-26, in from 55-22 last time and the narrowest it has been since early February. However, movements on leaders’ ratings are apparently more modest: Morrison is down two on approval to 64%, with his disapproval rating yet to be disclosed (UPDATE: Up five to 28%, so perhaps not as modest as that), while Albanese is steady on approval at 44% and down one on disapproval to 29%.

Fifty-nine per cent now express approval for the federal government’s handling of the pandemic, down two on a fortnight ago. The poll was conducted before Sunday’s announcement of extended restrictions in Victoria, but the small-sample breakdown for that state finds approval of the state government’s performance up three to 50%, compared with falls of two points in New South Wales to 57% and six points in Queensland to 66%. The WA government is up three to a new high of 87%, although at this point sample sizes get very small indeed: as with much else in this poll, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report this afternoon for numbers from South Australia. The latter figure aside, the following chart shows how the various governments’ favourable ratings on this measure have progressed since March:

Concerning COVID-19 outbreaks in aged care facilities, 41% now blame the providers, down a point on a fortnight ago, with 31% blaming the federal government, up three, and 28% blaming state and territory governments, down two. The poll finds 36% support for increasing the Medicare levy from 2% to 2.65% to fund improvements to aged care, with 32% opposed and 32% uncommitted.

Forty-nine per cent favoured a proposition that Google and Facebook should have to pay for news content, compared with 38% for the alternative that “it is not up to the tech giants to support media companies” (as per the wording in The Guardian’s report). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1076.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,463 comments on “Essential Research: leadership and COVID-19 approval ratings”

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  4. Taylormade

    Andrews needs to come up with his own version of Jobkeeper for Vic employers.
    He got us into this mess so his govt needs to take ownership and fix it.

    Actually, it was Morrison who got us into this mess. It was he who refused to close borders in a timely manner. Sure, he closed the border to flights from China (eventually – at end of February), but he waited nearly a month to close it to the USA and other diseased cities.
    In that period we picked up a lot of infected people.
    International quarantine and border security is a federal responsibility.
    Morrison owns it; he just refuses to accept that ownership.
    https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-has-seriously-tested-our-border-security-have-we-learned-from-our-mistakes-134794

  6. Victoria

    Taylormade has a way of making a fool of himself and the fiberals at the same time. No mean feat.

    I disagree – I would call it “the null operation”!

  7. taylormade
    “Andrews needs to come up with his own version of Jobkeeper for Vic employers.
    He got us into this mess so his govt needs to take ownership and fix it.”

    I had at first heard rumours that the Covid19 virus was developed by a Chinese germ warfare lab somewhere in Wuhan. Turns out it was Diabolical Dr Dan in the Labor office basement after all! I had no idea Labor had a germ warfare unit down there.

    But I still can’t work out how Diabolical Dan crashed the NSW economy, especially considering that the deep-recession-level GSP figures for NSW were for the period 1 April to 30 June, prior to the current Melbourne lockdown?? How did Dan do it?

  9. Raff Adam Flag of AustraliaSun with face
    @raffstar66
    ·
    49m
    Replying to
    @Raf_Epstein

    @VictorianCHO
    and
    @abcmelbourne
    But how good is the PMs $70M Covid Safe app? He promoted that as our saviour to freedom in April/May & remember him bribing school principals? No wonder people let loose once given a bit of freedom in June.

  11. Taylormade
    The federal government could stop a few leaky boats at the cost of a few billion dollars but couldn’t stop corona virus entering the country.

    Not too sure the Liberals should be playing their silly games.

  12. Lars, “it’s a shame stupidity isn’t painful” is one particular playground retort that’s too nasty for me to allow to pass without comment. And if IcanCU is reading, I’ll require some sort of effort from them to persuade me why I shouldn’t ban them.

  13. Frednk

    As posited by a former bludger

    Schloss Lulzville Schadenfreude
    @GeorgeBludger
    ·
    5h
    I‘m thoroughly disgusted at how this is being spun in the media. The Feds have put a massive burden on Victoria, have used it as an opportunity to blame it for all manner of underlying national socioeconomic problems, & have undermined their efforts daily. This won’t be forgotten

  15. This is article shellbell linked earlier and made reference to what Professor MacIntrye said as being a problem for Victoria health. I’m starting to think comprehension skills are lacking.

    Conversation
    Schloss Lulzville Schadenfreude
    @GeorgeBludger
    ·
    6h
    “Professor MacIntyre said NSW had kept up with contact tracing because it had a small daily number of cases for the past few months. But if that number spiked, the system wouldn’t hold up.”

    So the headline is rubbish, but ABC went

  17. Further to Victoria comment above . . .

    NSW is the ‘gold standard’ for COVID-19 management according to the PM — here’s why

    The headline says one thing but buried in the body of the article

    Vic Health gutted over past 30 years & a streamlined system not fit for purpose in a pandemic
    NSW manual system couldn’t cope with large numbers
    NSW still using whiteboard
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890

    In press conferences Dan Andrews has said positive cases now notified by email or electronically and contact tracing has been automated using the ADFs artificial intelligence platform from IBM which matches text from different interviews

    Wonder if originally developed to spy on phone calls

  18. The Norman Swan excerpt starts off with NSW is lucky and ends up saying, in effect, it and Qld are not lucky. Then he shitcans Victoria back to 2009.

    It is like the 1999 literary award for best introductory paragraph starting with “It was a dark and stormy night.” By the end of the winning introductory paragraph, it was neither dark nor stormy and daytime.

  19. Why are Scotty’s minions getting more and more vicious with their attacks on Andrews?
    I’d say because they are worried Dan will be successful in achieving zero spread. They’ll be like other zero-spread states.

    I have a sister in WA (who works in an office in Perth) who tells me her boss still insists they alternate working from home with office attendance; practice safe distancing and clean up after every client. They are still careful. But they also can go worry-free camping within WA. She loves what they have achieved.
    When Dan achieves his goal of zero spread (as I’m sure he will) then
    a) Victorians will be able to slowly open up like WA, while still being cautious,
    and
    b) they will also be proud of what they have achieved.

    NSW, and Sydney in particular (where I am), will still have very worried citizens. I know people over 60 yo, and/or with compromised immune systems, who are ultra cautious, and would love to be like people in WA.

    The comparisons (NSW with the rest of the country) will be odious.
    And that’s why Scotty doesn’t want Dan to succeed.

  20. Shellbell the Victorian Health system was gutted by Jeff Kennett who sold hospitals, including infectious diseases, decimated hospital staff in his reign from 1991 to 1995

    Kennett also sold schools, gas, electricity broke up Victoria unified water system, covering the largest geographic area in the world
    Kennett fired so many public employees that Victoria plunged into recession

    In 1991 my sister was honarary Treasurer of the kindergarten attended by offspring of Michael wooldridge, martin Ferguson. One in five kinder dads was not working in this privileged well connected community. It was much grimmer in the La Trobe Valley where 90% laid off.

    You can’t rebuild a system so easily when you have to ask Canberra for every cent you spend

    To be balanced Kennett
    Got Grand Prix which sent restauranteurs broke
    Got Crown Casino
    Got a new Exhibition Hall
    Painted taxis yellow

    Great retail politician in the ScoMo mould.

  21. Billie
    Kennett was Premier for 2 terms, until his gov’t was booted in a shock-loss election in 1999
    The regional areas were not happy with how he destroyed them.

  22. Maude, I am also in WA. I think Morrison has other concerns. Premier McGowan goes to the polls next March. The ALP has a large majority that would usually be diminished. Now they shouldn’t lose many seats at all. The federal election is not until 2022 but because senior liberals including Morrison backed Palmer over WA, this may have an effect on the liberal vote in WA. You could just about bet your life that in 2022, WA voters will be reminded of their treachery.

    Andrews may be cocillitory to the Ferderal Liberals now, but if he succeeds, expect similar reminders about the treachery of Victorian Liberals.

  23. billie @ #319 Tuesday, September 8th, 2020 – 4:47 pm

    Shellbell the Victorian Health system was gutted by Jeff Kennett who sold hospitals, including infectious diseases, decimated hospital staff in his reign from 1991 to 1995

    Kennett also sold schools, gas, electricity broke up Victoria unified water system, covering the largest geographic area in the world
    Kennett fired so many public employees that Victoria plunged into recession

    In 1991 my sister was honarary Treasurer of the kindergarten attended by offspring of Michael wooldridge, martin Ferguson. One in five kinder dads was not working in this privileged well connected community. It was much grimmer in the La Trobe Valley where 90% laid off.

    You can’t rebuild a system so easily when you have to ask Canberra for every cent you spend

    That may all be true but, Swan laid the blame at cuts back in 2009 not replaced after SARs. However, none of that exhonerates NSW as being lucky rather than best practice.

  24. Granny Anny @ #321 Tuesday, September 8th, 2020 – 5:00 pm

    Maude, I am also in WA. I think Morrison has other concerns. Premier McGowan goes to the polls next March. The ALP has a large majority that would usually be diminished. Now they shouldn’t lose many seats at all. The federal election is not until 2022 but because senior liberals including Morrison backed Palmer over WA, this may have an effect on the liberal vote in WA. You could just about bet your life that in 2022, WA voters will be reminded of their treachery.

    Andrews may be cocillitory to the Ferderal Liberals now, but if he succeeds, expect similar reminders about the treachery of Victorian Liberals.

    1. Andrews goes to an Election after the Feds in 2022.
    2. The resposiblity for employment, debt and economic management are Federal. So, by 2022 if things don’t improve it will be the Libs at federal level that will wear the blame regardless of what they say or how much they seek to blame others. I’m sure an issue like Aged care will still be a factor at that time as well.
    3. Andrews is determined to beat this Covid monster. So, the Federal Government’s bleats and whinges don’t really mean much to Dan. He’s focussed on what he needs to do and the Libs will end up wearing their lack of Leadership and economic management when they face the Electorate.

  25. And if IcanCU is reading, I’ll require some sort of effort from them to persuade me why I shouldn’t ban them.

    I got a temporary ban for suggesting Tony Abbott was a Bondi cigar in Speedos (or wtte). Was what IcanCU posted worse than that?


  27. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 5:07 pm

    ….
    3. Andrews is determined to beat this Covid monster. So, the Federal Government’s bleats and whinges don’t really mean much to Dan. He’s focussed on what he needs to do and the Libs will end up wearing their lack of Leadership and economic management when they face the Electorate.

    I doubt Michael O’Brien will make it to the election but if he does he sure is building up a good block of material for Labor to use at the next election if he does.

  28. Lars Von Triersays: Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 12:13 pm

    Lol Victoria – tell me exactly where I predicted a lib win in E-m?

    I owned my wrong call in NT as I did my correct call in 2019.

    You – you never trouble anyone with an original thought!

    As someone once said – it’s a pity stupid isn’t painful.

    *******************************************

    I think the final comment against regular, Victoria – who in my opinion is not some aggressive or abusive poster on here – is totally unwarranted and has a particular nasty connotation to it ……. I think you owe Victoria a very sincere apology, Lars ….

  30. and if I posted that my favourite (temporary) headline from the last Ashes series in England was “Broad gets Head after lunch” would the sky fall on me?

  31. Oh seriously Phoenix – it sounds like your about to have an attack of the vapours. I’m sorry if I offended your delicate sensibilities too.

  33. Granny Anny
    Yes, I was surprised at the vehemence of my sister’s opinion of Palmer and how happy she is with their premier.
    I can’t understand why Palmer would want to go to WA. No-one would do anything for him. He’d be lucky to get out of the airport. ‘Pariah’ is being kind.
    And she is usually a Liberal voter.

  34. Lars Von Triersays: Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 5:16 pm

    Oh seriously Phoenix – it sounds like your about to have an attack of the vapours. I’m sorry if I offended your delicate sensibilities too.

    **************************************

    I don’t mind fair criticism, Lars – but projecting PAIN on a fellow Poll Bludger is beyond the pale and outside the bounds of acceptable comment on here

  36. Why are Scotty’s minions getting more and more vicious with their attacks on Andrews?

    He is the chosen scapegoat of the Liberal-National-Murdoch Coalition for the coming Depression.

  37. Don’t be so sanctimonious and misleading Phoenix.

    Projecting PAIN seriously? William called me out on the comment and I apologised to Victoria. Trying to elevate it into something else for point scoring? What would you like a public birching?

    Look at dear GG’s comment below from yesterday – I just ignored it like most of GG’s abuse, didn’t see any outrage from the likes of you about it? – It seems you take offence when its “your side” only.

    ___________________________________
    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, September 7, 2020 at 6:08 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #1355 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 6:05 pm

    Yes GG ur very strong and powerful. everybody knows !
    And, everyone knows you are an asinine piece of shit!
    _______________________________________

  41. Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    Morrison likes to think of himself as a great national leader at a time of crisis.

    Pro tip for #ScottyFromMarketing: I don’t think John Curtin spent WW2 taking cheap shots at State Premiers.

  42. I thought “It’s a pity stupidity isn’t painful” quite funny, but I didn’t go to the same kindergarten as WB!
    I intend to use it in gatherings of like minded people in reference to common enemies. Of course I wouldn’t use it to stupid people , in case it gave them pain! For example, I wouldn’t use it to most people who make comments similar to LvT’s

  43. Phillip Lodge
    @phlogga
    ·
    2h
    NewsCorp is on a campaign to undermine law and order in Victoria. They’re attacking Andrews and our police force. There’s talk of Commonwealth intervention and Joyce has raised the spectre of civil war. The LNP and Murdoch’s minions will destroy us if they can.

  48. The ALP has been in office for 17 of 21 years since Kennett and the state isn’t short of cash.

    A lot of damage can be hard to undo. But yes, it is a reminder that left leaning governments must never sit on their hands in government.

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