Essential Research: leadership and COVID-19 approval ratings

A narrowing lead for Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister punctuates an otherwise stable picture in Essential Research’s latest set of leadership and COVID-19 performance ratings.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes its monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister is now at 49-26, in from 55-22 last time and the narrowest it has been since early February. However, movements on leaders’ ratings are apparently more modest: Morrison is down two on approval to 64%, with his disapproval rating yet to be disclosed (UPDATE: Up five to 28%, so perhaps not as modest as that), while Albanese is steady on approval at 44% and down one on disapproval to 29%.

Fifty-nine per cent now express approval for the federal government’s handling of the pandemic, down two on a fortnight ago. The poll was conducted before Sunday’s announcement of extended restrictions in Victoria, but the small-sample breakdown for that state finds approval of the state government’s performance up three to 50%, compared with falls of two points in New South Wales to 57% and six points in Queensland to 66%. The WA government is up three to a new high of 87%, although at this point sample sizes get very small indeed: as with much else in this poll, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report this afternoon for numbers from South Australia. The latter figure aside, the following chart shows how the various governments’ favourable ratings on this measure have progressed since March:

Concerning COVID-19 outbreaks in aged care facilities, 41% now blame the providers, down a point on a fortnight ago, with 31% blaming the federal government, up three, and 28% blaming state and territory governments, down two. The poll finds 36% support for increasing the Medicare levy from 2% to 2.65% to fund improvements to aged care, with 32% opposed and 32% uncommitted.

Forty-nine per cent favoured a proposition that Google and Facebook should have to pay for news content, compared with 38% for the alternative that “it is not up to the tech giants to support media companies” (as per the wording in The Guardian’s report). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1076.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,463 comments on “Essential Research: leadership and COVID-19 approval ratings”

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  1. Spray

    Which is why a like button would be good!

    I tend to assume once an issue’s been raised it will be dealt with and a flurry of ‘me too’ posts are superfluous.

    So if you want me to say I was outraged, yes, I was, but the outrage had already been expressed by others.

    This blog would get bogged down, however, if every time anyone says something we all object to, we’re all obligated to express our objections.

  2. Hi Vic,

    One further point since you mentioned they are FHBs is that the Stamp Duty rebate scheme is only zero up to $600k. Between $600k and $750k stamp duty is gradually increased. And, for $750k plus it is standard stamp duty rates applying.

    I hope that helps.

  3. BB

    Excellent post. Well said.

    Spray

    Mad F Witches is taking back the name.

    So yes you are right when others use to denigrate they are going to Tony Abbott demo background signs.

    It’s kind of like the N word or the F word. When used to denigrate.
    Context is everything

  4. Why would unions, who are accountable to their members for the use of their funds, invest in fossil media/communication forms that have already failed and soon enough will likely all-but vanish?

  5. GG

    Thanks. They know about the stamp duty rebate scheme. Hence why they would love to find something under 650,000.

    Once again thanks for the feedback. Much appreciated.

  6. Zoomster

    Yes plus:
    A like button would be especially good for lurkers.
    It would assist William in getting an idea of the percentage of people reading without subscribing.

  7. NonSequitur,
    You’re right. news papers and tv and radio are dying. But a union could put money behind a youtube channel that did factual Michael West style reporting. If it dropped a weekly video it just may start to grab some traction and become self sustaining.
    See Bellingcat.

  8. Non

    Youtube is not legacy media.

    It has set up the national and international platform and the costs associated with it.

    All the union has to do is pay for staff and investigative journalism and some cameras and lighting.
    We are in days where the costs are down to a low enough level it’s like setting up a public radio station. For a professional result.

    Edit: It could further reduce costs by getting a university media course to run it. UTS Macquarie Uni RMIT spring to mind. I am sure there are others.

  9. Victoria, looks like our gut feeling was right about ScoMo. He is showing signs of panic, and reverting to his customary disloyal self.

    Leopards don’t change their spots after all.

    Kath Murphy wrote the other day that he disdains Parliamentary processes and traditions, believing that “getting on with the job” trumps all. I think It’s an accurate observation.

    Problem is: we live in a Parliamentary democracy.

    ScoMo always ends up going it alone, and always comes a cropper when he does so.

  10. BB
    He couldn’t and wouldn’t do it but I’d love to see Andrews get up and say “OK.We are going to do what Scott Morrison ,Andrew Bolt , Westacott (name all the names) have told us we should do and open up. All deaths and illness from this point on will be caused by them and the advice they have given.

  11. zoomster @ #152 Tuesday, September 8th, 2020 – 11:03 am

    Spray

    Which is why a like button would be good!

    I tend to assume once an issue’s been raised it will be dealt with and a flurry of ‘me too’ posts are superfluous.

    So if you want me to say I was outraged, yes, I was, but the outrage had already been expressed by others.

    This blog would get bogged down, however, if every time anyone says something we all object to, we’re all obligated to express our objections.

    Fair call Z. Think there’d have been a few more objections if she was of another political persuasion though.

  12. south says:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 11:11 am

    “But a union could put money behind a youtube channel that did factual Michael West style reporting.”

    But you guys only cherry pick the Michael West reports that you agree with – are you going to keep doing that?

  13. Yep. And it goes to show what a pathetic creature Morrison is.

    Dr Jim O’Hara
    @JimH_Vic_Aus
    ·
    56m
    Comparison of coronavirus contact tracing between NSW and Vic: NSW is bench pressing 10 kg with ease. Vic is struggling a bit with 200 kg. Coach ScoMo looks at both, says to Vic: see, NSW can do it easily, why can’t you?

  14. Alpha Zero says:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 10:20 am

    “rumour has it that there are some positive Covid tests among the riders or staff on the rest day.”

    I follow cycling fairly closely and the TdF obsessively (hate rest days – they break my routine) and I’ve seen no credible confirmed reports of positive tests.

  15. Phoenix – those US numbers are trending down rapidly. I suspect a lot of Americans have COVID fatigue and remarkably short memories. If there is an economic bounce – and there is bound to be – then support for Trump may well revert to pre pandemic levels – especially in the half dozen or so states that will determine the race.

    THAT possibility PLUS the enthusiasm levels of the 40-45% of Americans who actually still think that Trump has done a good job PLUS the electoral college bias which favours the party that those type of Americans support makes Trump a likely winner IMO.

    IMO the polls largely don’t matter: its the likelihood of turnout that matters and Trump was always going to get 2/3 of the 40-45% of Americans who support him out to vote, whereas I’ve always feared that sleepy Joe will get over 60% of the 45-50% who currently poll as likely to (i) vote and (ii) cast a ballot for him to the actual polling station (or to post a mail in ballot).

  16. Bucephalus @ #165 Tuesday, September 8th, 2020 – 11:20 am

    south says:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 11:11 am

    “But a union could put money behind a youtube channel that did factual Michael West style reporting.”

    But you guys only cherry pick the Michael West reports that you agree with – are you going to keep doing that?

    When Liberals like you stop doing the same with media that is biased towards them, yeah I guess so.

  17. poroti says:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 9:57 am

    ““How many Victorians is Morrison prepared to let die a lonely, painful death in order to prematurely open borders and the economy?”

    It’s a stupid question. If you are going to ask that for the virus then why not ask it for suicides, car accidents, cancer and every other cause of death?

  18. AE

    I think you are wrong in one respect.

    Trump increases enthusiasm in both parties.
    The Democrat Base is bigger. Trump has made the election into a referendum about himself. Democrats are enthusiastic to vote against Trump.

    The voter polling has been stable and not volatile. That favours Biden.
    That’s in the battleground states as Biden wins back white subarban housewives that voted for Obama

    Not forgetting the Sunbelt states favour Biden. I will believe it when I see it but Texas as one example is in serious play. Plus given rollout time any vaccine won’t happen until after the election.

  19. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 6:28 am

    “Here’s a thought – pay more for your own elderly relatives aged care?”

    This requires breaking down the protections around the family home. Neither side of politics has the courage to do this.

  20. Bucephalus
    Because the decision to open early will lead to the deaths. WTF are you smoking to somehow equate deaths caused by that and cancer ?

  21. IcanCU says:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 6:46 am

    “ugly NSW witches”

    If you are going to sledge then at least get the grammar correct – “witch’s”

    So, just checking with everyone that calling a female an ugly witch is now ok? Yes?

  22. Since we left Sydney and bought a good quality smart TV, I’d say 75% of our viewing is off the internet, up from 5% before.

    Netflix, On Demand and iView get a good run, but I’ve found YouTube to be an almost bottomless pit of excellent and informative viewing, once you work out how to use it.

    Image quality is nowadays mostly just as good, or better, than linear model broadcast TV. Production values are sometimes lower, but since I worked at Nine (years ago) I’ve realized that production values get in the way of immediacy anyway. When production values become an end in themselves the medium stultifies. Message is far more impirtant.

    Being able to leave a program and then take it up again later on is the key. YouTube’s non-linearity beats broadcast TV’s fossilized linearity – its scripting, makeup, sets, deadlines, limited coverage and so on – every time.

    That two young Aussies on a sailboat can produce half an hour of brilliantly produced and edited travelogue/lifestyle type TV a week (Sailing la Vagabonde), or some Pom can talk about medieval battle strategies, or tanks, or WW2 yarns to camera for an hour at a time (Lindybeige), some young wannabe journalist/presenter can produce relaxed but richly detailed and informative longform interviews without screeching, crying, posturing or spreading conspiracy theories (literally hundreds of these), while garnering hundreds of thousands, if not millions of viewers, is a credit to the YouTube non-linear format and these people who have a go.

    If you want tips on painting, building a set of garden steps, cutting a mitre, or which tool is best for what job, there are literally thousands of offerings, without you once gaving to put up with Scott Cam or any other form of Reality TV spruiker.

    If you want music of any form from classical to hip hop it’s all there from the best orchestras, bands and solo performers.

    You don’t have to pay them, fit in with their schedules or put up with their ugly, leering mugs unless YOU want to.

    It’s the future. And it’s here already.

  23. A_Earlwood
    “Phoenix – those US numbers are trending down rapidly.”

    I suspect the low numbers are an artifact of reporting, due to the Labor Day long weekend.

  24. “ A_E
    As someone once asked

    Why would anyone want these stupid compact cranks?
    https://forums.roadbikereview.com/components-wrenching/who-else-hates-compact-cranks-104663-2.html”

    I prefer to run a 52/36 for Ironman and Half Ironman triathlon than a ‘traditional’ 53/39 as I find sitting in a 52 and alternating between a 15,16,17 & 18 more relevant for my power output and cadence.

    Triathlons are so vanilla these days that there usually isn’t much variation in the parcours, but there is often a bump masquerading as a hill somewhere and wind direction is always a factor – especially at my annual pilgrimage to Ironman Cairns.

    I really don’t ride mountains these days, but when I did I always appreciated running a 36 small chain ring.

  25. Bucephalus

    The Rodent made a tentative hint about it re family home and aged care. The reaction suggested it would be safer to strap on a bleeding sheep carcass and swim with sharks. The letters to the editor I remember seemed to suggest Boomers were a bit touchy about possible reductions in their inheritance.

  26. south @ #158 Tuesday, September 8th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    NonSequitur,
    You’re right. news papers and tv and radio are dying. But a union could put money behind a youtube channel that did factual Michael West style reporting. If it dropped a weekly video it just may start to grab some traction and become self sustaining.
    See Bellingcat.

    The Australian Fabians are already doing it.
    The McKell Institute are already doing it.
    The Chifley Research Centre are already doing it.

    Another one doing it wouldn’t hurt.

  27. What I’d like to see is for other Labor premiers and chief ministers to come out and publicly support Andrews’ stance. At the moment he’s being attacked by all and sundry; the latest, motor-mouth Canavan. And although he appears to be handling his critics well, a bit of support wouldn’t go astray.

  28. poroti says:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 11:40 am
    “A_E
    As someone once asked

    Why would anyone want these stupid compact cranks?”

    If you’ve ever ridden a HC climb you wouldn’t think they are stupid.

  29. ‘If you are going to ask that for the virus then why not ask it for suicides, car accidents, cancer and every other cause of death?’

    Sorry, can you explain how closing down the borders (or other lockdown measures) would help with these?

  30. bucephalus @11:20
    “But you guys only cherry pick the Michael West reports that you agree with – are you going to keep doing that?”
    Of course!! Why would anyone ‘cherrypick’ reports they diagree with?
    Not every one is like you,B, who with noble impartiality picks both pro and anti right wing views!!

  31. Bucephalus
    In regional areas the government pays the bill for the rich elderly because most of them have all their assets in trusts.
    It is the hard workers who have accumulated savings via super that are not economically knowledgeable enough to know how to play the system. When the bond or accomodation charge first arose no one knew how to avoid it. Now there are specialist accountants that help sort it out, this has now become an industry in itself.

  32. poroti

    I knew of one case where the nephew of a frail elderly woman fought tooth and nail to keep her out of aged care so that her house wouldn’t be signed over to pay for her care.

    Actually looking after her, however, wasn’t part of his considerations.

  33. Mike Smith of the AFR and Bill Birtles of the ABC have had to leave China under cover of the protection of the Australian government!

    Wow!

  34. Gippslander says:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 12:01 pm

    “Not every one is like you,B, who with noble impartiality picks both pro and anti right wing views!!”

    I make no apologies for my biases. It wasn’t me claiming that a Michael West style product was required but others who only cherry-pick the stories they like from him.

  35. Bucephalus
    I read all about them when Compact Crank was here. I was looking for the headline I posted back then “Do compact cranks make you stupid ? ” 😉 but that was the nearest I find

  36. Australians prefer free stuff (subsidised aged care) as compared to paying for it.

    I’d make super 15% and dedicate 20% as your compulsory aged care / retirement levy.

    Housing is a problem – but it’s not just cgt – a lot of it is stupid councils with dumb planning rules .

  37. https://essentialvision.com.au/government-response-to-covid-19-19
    “Participants’ rating of the Federal Government’s handling of Covid-19 crisis slips for the fourth consecutive week. From a high of 73% positive rating in May, 59% now say the Government’s handling has been good.”
    Except that’s not the question they asked. They asked about ‘the government’s’ response without direct reference to the Feds which could be taken to mean government at any level. Essential really need to fix this up if it’s their intent that this question is focused on the federal response.

  38. B

    I have made that claim.

    However I have not cherry picked in my argument.

    I further backed that up today with why I think at least the MEAA should have a channel.

    Of course you oppose it the less diversity the better for the LNP.

  39. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 12:01 pm
    “‘If you are going to ask that for the virus then why not ask it for suicides, car accidents, cancer and every other cause of death?’

    Sorry, can you explain how closing down the borders (or other lockdown measures) would help with these?”

    It’s not about closing borders to help those causes of death it’s about how much of society’s resources will be invested and what restrictions placed on society to stop various deaths. Ban smoking – but they don’t. Ban cycling- no more cycling deaths.

  40. Buce,

    ITV4 had a one liner at the end of their show (nothing confirmed as yet). I am waiting with baited breath on the results and hope it’s all green lights.

    The stage up the Col de Peyresourde was not a good look with the road being so crowded…

    As for Compact Cranks, surely there’s not a huge demand for them in WA.

    In Victoria, one can find all manner of nasty climbs where a compact is the only possible choice…

  41. Since we left Sydney and bought a good quality smart TV, I’d say 75% of our viewing is off the internet, up from 5% before.

    The only time I ever watch commercial TV is Fridays because my wife loves Better Homes and Gardens (I usually spend most of the time on my phone doing something else).
    Most of the time I watch YouTube, Netflix, Prime, we’ve got Fetch but since getting a Smart TV we use it very little.

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