Essential Research: leadership and COVID-19 approval ratings

A narrowing lead for Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister punctuates an otherwise stable picture in Essential Research’s latest set of leadership and COVID-19 performance ratings.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes its monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister is now at 49-26, in from 55-22 last time and the narrowest it has been since early February. However, movements on leaders’ ratings are apparently more modest: Morrison is down two on approval to 64%, with his disapproval rating yet to be disclosed (UPDATE: Up five to 28%, so perhaps not as modest as that), while Albanese is steady on approval at 44% and down one on disapproval to 29%.

Fifty-nine per cent now express approval for the federal government’s handling of the pandemic, down two on a fortnight ago. The poll was conducted before Sunday’s announcement of extended restrictions in Victoria, but the small-sample breakdown for that state finds approval of the state government’s performance up three to 50%, compared with falls of two points in New South Wales to 57% and six points in Queensland to 66%. The WA government is up three to a new high of 87%, although at this point sample sizes get very small indeed: as with much else in this poll, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report this afternoon for numbers from South Australia. The latter figure aside, the following chart shows how the various governments’ favourable ratings on this measure have progressed since March:

Concerning COVID-19 outbreaks in aged care facilities, 41% now blame the providers, down a point on a fortnight ago, with 31% blaming the federal government, up three, and 28% blaming state and territory governments, down two. The poll finds 36% support for increasing the Medicare levy from 2% to 2.65% to fund improvements to aged care, with 32% opposed and 32% uncommitted.

Forty-nine per cent favoured a proposition that Google and Facebook should have to pay for news content, compared with 38% for the alternative that “it is not up to the tech giants to support media companies” (as per the wording in The Guardian’s report). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1076.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,463 comments on “Essential Research: leadership and COVID-19 approval ratings”

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  1. Mundo,
    i would say the fact that sports rorts happened, and is in the zeitgeist yet there’s not follow up or consequences means that the ALP has ‘exposed’ lacking governance. It’s just they didn’t know how to pivot the attack when the Pm basically acted like, “sure, we’re corrupt and it was all corrupt. what you going to do about it”.

  2. Sounds like a bit of Scrott has made it to England. Demand the state Premiers “open up’ but when it goes wrong you can guess who he’ll blame.

    Come on kids, let’s get back to normal! (But listen: if gran dies, it’s your fault)

    If there’s one thing this government has consistently proven itself to be good at, it’s coming up with a catchy slogan which is then impossible to de-escalate.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/09/matt-hancock-covid-blame-game-young-senicide

  3. Qld Premier accuses PM of making coordinated attack against Qld Government:

    “I will not be bullied, nor will I be intimidated by the Prime Minister of this country who contacted me this morning and to whom I made it very clear to the fact that this is not my decision and that I would pass the information on to the chief health officer…“

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-victoria-records-51-new-covid-19-cases-as-qld-border-debate-continues-trump-admits-downplaying-pandemic-as-australian-death-toll-jumps-to-788-20200910-p55u48.html

  4. This should be Tweeted far and wide

    MFW
    @MadFckingWitch
    ·
    7m
    No tears for the dead in Aged Care?

    No tears for the millions having JobSeeker and JobSeeker cut?

    No tears for the 4 ppl locked up on Christmas Island?

    No tears for the Ruby Princess deaths?

    Who cares about his tears now?

    Nothing but a political stunt. Disgraceful.
    Quote Tweet

    Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    · 49m
    PM @ScottMorrisonMP on verge of tears as he begs @AnnastaciaMP to let daughter cross border to attend funeral of her dad on @NewsTalk4BC @newscomauHQ

  5. “Chief Commissioner Patton on Thursday said he was never consulted about the curfew, contradicting Premier Daniel Andrews who on Wednesday said that police had given feedback that the restriction would make enforcement easier”
    ________________
    Cannot seem to get thier story straight.
    Andrews will need to be careful. Ashton was just a puppet whereas Patton seems prepared to contradict and stand up to the Govt.
    A welcome change.

  6. BREAKING: New details of PM’s explosive phone call with
    @AnnastaciaMP
    over borders.

    “He wasn’t bloody crying when he rang the Premier and berated her.

    “The PM rang and said, ‘You will do this’. She had to remind him it was R U OK? day.”
    @newscomauHQ

  7. Taylormade

    In all seriousness. Look at what our prime minister is currently doing.

    This is where the real duplicity is.

    He hasnt got the back of Australians at all.

  8. The hypocrisy of Morrison and his cronies along with the libs/nats media propaganda units

    Last week they attacked Annastacia Palaszczuk for exemption of the AFL officials ,they were crying NO ONE should be exempt

    Today they are crying for someone to be exempted

  9. Q. What if someone on shift work can’t do their shopping late at night because of the curfew?

    A. Supermarkets had already reduced their hours because their sales were down.

    Journos desperate for a gotcha.

  10. Taylormade @ #1060 Thursday, September 10th, 2020 – 9:46 am

    Chief Commissioner Patton on Thursday said he was never consulted about the curfew, contradicting Premier Daniel Andrews who on Wednesday said that police had given feedback that the restriction would make enforcement easier.
    ________________
    Cannot seem to get thier story straight.
    Andrews will need to be careful. Ashton was just a puppet whereas Patton seems prepared to contradict and stand up to the Govt.
    A welcome change.

    How is this necessarily contradictory?

    There are other police officers in Victoria.

  11. From Lawyerly

    “Judge warns funder against ‘double dipping’ in Ruby Princess class action
    A judge overseeing the Ruby Princess class action has cautioned funders against ‘double dipping’ when seeking payouts from group members, while cruise line Carnival has attempted to shift part of the blame for the COVID-19 debacle onto the Prime Minister.”

  12. The NSW Government has been plunged into crisis after the Nationals have decided to boycott party meetings with Liberals and stop supporting government legislation until their demands over a koala policy are met.

    Mr Barilaro says all Nationals MPs will sit on the cross bench, however, Ministers will not surrender their portfolios.

    The Coalition agreement has been under pressure after Nationals MPs expressed anger over proposed planning laws that would give farmers responsibility for managing koalas on their properties.

  13. I think the tuck shop owner Barilaro is playing above his station.
    This isn’t a good look with the national news being all about covid crisis. You gotta ask how good a manager is Gladys if this can happen on her watch.

  14. Holdenhillbilly @ #1075 Thursday, September 10th, 2020 – 9:58 am

    The NSW Government has been plunged into crisis after the Nationals have decided to boycott party meetings with Liberals and stop supporting government legislation until their demands over a koala policy are met.

    Mr Barilaro says all Nationals MPs will sit on the cross bench, however, Ministers will not surrender their portfolios.

    The Coalition agreement has been under pressure after Nationals MPs expressed anger over proposed planning laws that would give farmers responsibility for managing koalas on their properties.

    I thought farmers were already wonderful managers of their lands.

    Surely this is something they already do!

  15. Spray says:
    Thursday, September 10, 2020 at 11:37 am
    lizzie @ #1044 Thursday, September 10th, 2020 – 11:10 am

    Ben Eltham
    @beneltham
    ·
    25s
    Mind boggling but apparently true – Morrison govt set up a $4b natural disaster mitigation fund last year, but hasn’t spent any of it
    Probs waiting for something bad to happen.

    Morrison reckons the plagues and pestilences before the rapture are not “natural” events.

  16. South

    At minimum it’s a minority Liberal government. The Nationals are now on the Crossbench. Nationals out of ministries.

    Berejiklian is likely talking with shooters and fishers and Greens as we type. As are Labor.

  17. Media constantly getting it wrong?

    Rafael Epstein
    @Raf_Epstein
    ·
    1m
    I reckon they mismanaged the curfew.. but the only survey I’ve seen has support for the curfew GROWING

    “Question 3: “From Sunday night Melbourne is to have curfew from 9pm to 5am, should the curfew end or not?” Yes 37% (down 2%) cf. No 63% (UP 2%).”

  18. Lizzie

    Whilst the fiberals and the media are trying to play gotcha with the Labor states, NSW and SA are having bona fide shit shows occurring as we speak.

  19. To be clear I don’t think the Nationals can’t be on the Crossbench and retain ministries.

    I think that’s politics not constitutional

    It also explains why Albanese may have been busy.

  20. Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    23s
    I love the fact they are moving to crossbench in a big sook and …keeping their ministerial portfolios and pay packets

    TOUGH GUYS, HUH?
    Quote Tweet

  21. Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    36s
    Morrison now using a funeral in Queensland to score political points against Labor. It’s hard to know how low the PM can go to scoop into the bottom of the barrel of public decency. #auspol

  22. Lizzie

    My feeling has been for quite sometime that Morrison is going to become unstuck. He always reverts to type and he is not fit to be PM

    He is an imposter.

  23. I think Maywald was considered a cross bencher. She wasnt in coalition with Rann but had some sort of agreement where she cold vote against government policy in certain circumstances.

  24. Barney and SK

    ACT and Tasmania have had Green Ministers in Labor Government’s.

    That option is open to Berejiklian if she wants to shaft the Nationals over this.

    It’s open warfare. I think she will be looking at how to be strongest. Giving into blackmail doesn’t work well. Especially publicly.

    The Shooters and Fishers could do well. I would regard it as delicious irony if the Greens demand the environment portfolio for support given the Koala issue.

  25. The following looks like a long excerpt, but in reality it’s quite short, in that it perfectly summarizes concern trolls, like Shaun Carney (and the Press Gallery), in just a few paragraphs.

    Frustration is the word of the week. Morrison is frustrated, as are many, many Victorians to say the least. The remainder are disappointed. The Andrews government made horrendous errors and misjudgments with its hotel quarantine arrangements that led to this second wave. That is beyond dispute and the government’s time of reckoning with Victorian voters will come in November 2022.

    The national death toll from this virus sits at close to 800. Almost 700 of the dead have been Victorians. That’s the reality in which Victorians live. And it’s why the Prime Minister might have been better served this week to talk more about Victorians and less about the Victorian government, not because Andrews deserves commendation but because Victorians are still in the middle of the tough times that Morrison purported to understand so well only a month ago.

    Clearly, it frustrates the federal government and many in the press gallery that Andrews is taking the state in the direction he wants to take it.

    While you can spot Morrison’s desire to be liked from the moon, Andrews doesn’t care whether you like him or not. He resembles an animatronic figure, neither happy nor sad, operating the same every single day.

    Hell will freeze over before Andrews tries to charm anyone. And yet, while large numbers of Victorians loathe him, there is still some solid and apparently broad support for him in the Victorian community, despite his mistakes and the privations they have caused.

    What are the takeout from this?

    Andrews is guilty of “horrendous errors and misjudgements.”
    Let’s not forget who’s to blame for all this. It’s Dan Andrews, personally. He will inevitably tossed out of office for that in 2022. Never mind that the virus has killed hundreds of thousands and infected millions, defeating most of the world’s governments. It’s Dan Andrews we should be blaming. But moving on…

    Andrews deserves no commendation, and Victorians need protection from him.

    The Press Gallery is frustrated.
    Well, bugger me blind on that one! Dan’s upset the Press Gallery! How dare he! Especially when they know The Mind Of The People.

    Andrews is an automaton with no personality or feelings. He doesn’t even care that the Press Gallery and Victorians are frustrated.
    “Large numbers” of Victorians loathe him as a person, yet there is still a rump of those who, for some inexplicable reason, reckon he’s doing the right thing. Despite the Press Gallery’s best efforts, a stubborn majority, according to professionally conducted polling, stick with Dan. Even rigged vox pop polls backfire and show he’s popular.

    What Carney can’t understand is the concept of “trust”. Punters trust Andrews, by and large. They do not trust Morrison, by and large. In a contest between the two, Andrews will win out. What is needed now IS an automaton, one who does answer questions, not some marketing spiv who avoids questions and answers by substituting a shitstorm of blather for information.

    Until then, what upsets the Press Gallery is (and shoukd be) of little concern to anyone.

  26. Government in New South Wales

    What is ‘the Government’?

    The majority party in the lower house of the Parliament (in New South Wales this is the Legislative Assembly) forms ‘the government’. The members of that party sit in the Chamber to the right of the Speaker and are referred to in parliament as ‘the government’. Leading members of the majority party become the Ministers, the chief minister in the state being called ‘the Premier’. Ministers remain members of the Parliament. This group collectively and individually is responsible for government policy and actions. They govern, so they effectively are ‘the government’.

    ———————————————-

    If the national party members do become cross benchers , they are not in the government

    Labor would be the party with the Majority , should they call for a no confidence motion

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