The Australian has published a Newspoll of state voting intention three months out from the Queensland election, showing the Liberal National Party leading 51-49 on two-party preferred despite strong personal ratings for Annastacia Palaszczuk. The accompanying report tells us that Labor is on 34% of the primary vote, with the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 11% – all were are told for the LNP is that they are four points up on their 2017 election result, which was 33.7% (UPDATE: The tables show it at 38%). As compared with a YouGov Galaxy poll for the Sunday Mail in early June, conducted by the same company but published under different branding, this represents a one point gain for Labor on two-party preferred and two points on the primary vote, with the Greens steady, One Nation down one and the LNP, one gathers, steady.
Palaszczuk records a 64% approval rating, with the disapproval rating not provided in the report currently on the website (UPDATE: It’s 29%), and leads Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington 57-26 as preferred premier. Frecklington’s ratings are 34% approval and 42% disapproval. Palaszczuk scores 81% approval for her handling of COVID-19 compared with 80% for Scott Morrison – we are told Morrison is at 17% disapproval on this score, with no corresponding number provided for Palaszczuk (UPDATE: It’s 14%). There should be more detail available with the publication of the full tables later this evening.
UPDATE: Full results here. The poll was conducted Thursday to Wednesday from a sample of 1000.
27 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to LNP in Queensland”
Well I don’t know what’s happening with preferences here.
I get ALP = 34% +9.5% (out of 12% from Greens) + 4% (out of 11% from ON) + 2% (out of 5% other) = 49.5%.
A sensible ON preference allocation for the State election is about 35 to 40% to ALP.
Not on this topic but in relation to Clive’s challenge to W.As borders and Section 92 it seems that many seem to think Cliive will be successful. I am not a lawyer let alone a Constitutional lawyer but I have yet to see anyone consider the 1988 case of Cole v Whitfield that on my reading would give WA more than a fighting chance to maintain its stand on its borders because it’s purpose is on health grounds and not to interfere with interstate trade in order to protect intrastate trade that the HC held was the purpose of Sec 92.
The Newspoll table graphic link embedded in The Australian article is here. You can see the full results.
My view of the implied result from the poll is:
ALP -42 seats
Greens -2 seats
Ind – 1 seat
Katter – 3 seats
ON – 2 seats
LNP – 43 seats
With the ALP losing the 3 Townsville seats, 1 Cairns seat, Maryborough (to ON) and Sth Brisbane ( Greens).
However, I am not convinced these numbers will stick. If my life depended on it, I’d still favour the ALP to form the next Government barring any debacles or a bad campaign.
Greens preferences that were distributed (includes votes reaching them from others) went only 75.6% to ALP in 2017, though that didn’t include Maiwar and S Brisbane which were probably stronger. One Nation preferences that were distributed (also includes votes reaching them from others, but excludes numerous seats where they made the top two) were 65.2% to Coalition. Labor might have got 49.5-ish off these primaries but that will as often as not round down to 49.
Over the next few months, a percentage of middle and high income voters are going to find out that their jobs are gone and welfare is their new income. Big incomes, big mortgages. While the L/NP is progressively cutting job keeper, job seeker and the relief payments for job search, many new to all this are going to turn on Scummo N Frytheplanet.
At the last Fed election, negative gearing and franking credits tax changes for the good of the next generation were rejected soundly by those who were going to lose the benefit. Even the promise of a paltry tax cut on the never never drew the voters.
The wealthier these new unemployed are, the more likely they will drift from Scummo and Co. No matter what the cause, they will feel left behind.
The chalk and cheese between the LNP and Pauline Hanson One Nation Party v Labor and Greens will see a shift to Labor.
Each cut back in benefit payments will see a shift of a percent or two from the QLD opposition.
How Anistasia has handled COVID19
is a good reason to keep Labor in office if you need an excuse, just this once.
Please note that the general discussion thread is still this one, though it’s fallen well down the batting order on the entry page of the blog.
This is still winnable for Labor with a good campaign. But baggage like Jacki Trad in South Brisbane has to go. No liabilities can be afforded.
The Courier Mail has relegated their report on this to a few column centimetres on page 7. Their reports on Qld polls that are published in the Australian are usually much more prominent.
May be an indication of their confidence in its accuracy.
LNP will not win minority or majority government with primary vote under 40%
Labor are targeting the Gold Coast based seats of Coomera and Theodore extremely hard. The resources and money Labor have in those two seats alone should have the LNP petrified. Currumbin is the 3rd Gold Coast seat Labor are targeting too.
I feel a bit worried. I’m just not enthused about another four years of Palaszczuk and I’m just tired of all of them. Frecklington just isn’t as scary as their usual contenders which allows one to forget that Labor’s pretty average efforts are benign neglect compared to the LNP’s plans for our State.
Greens preferences in vast swathes of Queensland are relatively week for Labor, with flows weak enough to cost seats at the margins. In their favour they won Maiwar from the LNP, so they’re not all bad even if their voters aren’t as keen on Labor.
While many here see the Greens as the work of Satan, seats like Maiwar show that progressives can win these seats by not being Labor.
Are there really more preferences to be had from One Nation voters? I’m related to some of them and personally I don’t like your chances. Perhaps I’m just too close to see the potential.
Interesting breakdown of seats there. I was curious to see Maryborough as a gain for ON, but seeing their vote in 2017 i can understand why. The ones I reckon are most likely to fall to ON from Labor are around Ipswich/Logan, especially after a higher profile by-election in the former area (Bundamba).
Labor is definitely gone in Townsville and it just depends who picks up the pieces. Mirani I agree is a ON hold as the local member has had a high profile and down well for the community. And concur Greens are most likely the beneficiary from Trad’s demise in South Brisbane.
Comparing to yours, I have the following numbers:
2 Greens (Gain in Sth Brisbane, Hold Maiwar)
3 Katter (Hold Hill, Hinchinbrook, Traeger)
1 Ind (Hold Noosa – Bolton)
1 ON (Hold Mirani)
5 Toss Ups – Bundamba, Maryborough, Mudingburra, Thuringowa, Whitsunday
Bundamba (Possible ON Gain – although anger at council has subsided and may keep Labor safe)
Maryborough (Possible LNP, ON or Strong IND Gain)
Mudingburra & Thuringowa (Too Close to Call. Depends on preferences between KAP, LNP and ON.)
Whitsunday (Likely NQ Hold. I’ve heard many stories of Costigan’s star power up there, and despite some apparent sleaziness [from those on the ground], he’ll get in based on recognition.)
Other Seats to Watch [but have already included in totals]. Aspley, Baron River, Gaven, Keppel, Logan, Mansfield, Mulgrave, Redlands, Rockhampton, Springwood, Townsville,
51% for the LNP according to the available opinion polls?….. I can’t wait for the actual election result…. and endless analyses afterwards…. 🙂
Caloundra will be an interesting seat this election as well.
I don’t think the LNP will get this one, but I’m fairly blind to the situation in the central and north Qld regions.
Regardless of the outcome, Palaszczuk has to start thinking about succession planning. She’s done very well, and the victory over Newman was one for the ages, but I think her time is running out.
I said on the other thread that I heard Mander on the ABC radio yesterday. He was calling for a harder border with NSW. The interviewer questioned whether this was just a tad hypocritical. His blustering and aggressive response was unappealing- he sounded like a fool. Future Qld Treasurer? Let’s hope not.
And I agree with you, Soc. Trad is a liability.
I tend to get the feeling that “benign neglect” is actually a good description of what a considerable part of the electorate is after in a Government.
There is a lot of ALP bias on PB, and that extends to analysis of polls. That said, despite the polls and the betting markets, you might think the ALP would win again. Reason being the Premier’s dominance and the case that a return of the Government provides the best certainty.
Mum, I think the ALP 65% to win.
I get NO feeling that SEQ will swing away from Labor. In fact there may be a swing to it on the basis that AnnaPal has done a great job with Covid. Oldies like me are the most susceptible to the virus, so it wouldn’t surprise if quite a few retirees changed their voting pattern. A 2% swing in the Currumbin by-election opens up the Gold Coast to some low-hanging fruit.
However, I can’t make any comment about the regions. Tourism has been hit hard, but those footy and netball teams – and their large retinues – could pick up some of the slack when/if they leave the SEQ bubble.
Polipol may be correct about Caloundra. The long-serving sitting member is retiring and housing development to the south of town is roaring ahead with big mobs of young couples moving in – and being employed. A 4% swing would nail it. Difficult, but doable.
I’m predicting Labor will win Coomera this time around. Only 1074 votes need to flip and there has been a humongous increase in young families moving to Pimpama in the electorates north where the battle lines have been drawn. The infrastructure announcements of 3 new schools, a new railway station, and the commencement of the Coomera connector motorway should turn a lot of votes Labor’s way. The current MP is seen a do nothing, so that is why Labor head office think it can be taken.
That’s interesting about Coomera and Theodore. The swings for the ALP to win seem a bit high at about 4%. I am not particularly across the demographics of these seats. However, I do have this nagging thought that if things go on as they are there might actually be a swing to the ALP in some parts of SEQ.
Caloundra is sort of a Fata Morgana for the ALP. I can remember it coming up before as a ‘watcher’ but it never seems to quite get there.
Margins are under 4% in both Theodore and Coomera.
One thing Labor do extremely well in election campaigns is telephone banking and so far the overwhelming message we are getting back from people is that Annastacia has done a good job with COVID-19 and that they can’t stand Deb Frecklington. This 51-49 poll IMO is laughable. Mood on the ground is overly positive with no expectation that people want to change the government at all.
For Labor to get a healthy majority it has to make inroads into the Gold Coast. However, I tend to think Currumbin and Bonney would be higher in the pecking order for Labor before Coomera and Theodore.
I will acknowledge though Theodore was part of the former seat of Albert which was one of the most strongest Labor seats on the Gold Coast during the Beattie years. I have also heard some who think Coomera should be better for Labor then it is because of the demographics of the seat.
I had thought, and this might be a bit lazy thinking, that the main strip GC would not swing to the ALP because of the border closures and tourism impact.
The 49/51 does seem a bit counter intuitive but maybe people are just tired of the ALP government.
Anyone who reckons Jason Costigan is gonna hold Whitsunday with his new party, read this:
Recently in January he arranged to stay with an elderly couple — they were over 80 years of age on a remote farm interstate,” Mr Bleijie said.
“He arrived late at 1:30 in the morning after phoning the couple around 10:00pm.
“The next morning, the hosts departed at around 7:00am, but from the discussion with him when he arrived they assumed he would leave early in the morning rather than linger.
“Just after midday their 18-year-old granddaughter arrived to collect some of her belongings following a short holiday after graduating from high school weeks before.
“When she arrived at the property she didn’t know that he was there — she didn’t know who he was or why he was in her grandparents’ home.
Mr Bleijie said Mr Costigan met her in the living room then followed her into the bedroom.
“He was half naked, having just had a shower,” Mr Bleijie said.
“He closed the door behind her when they entered the room, he touched her on the back and stroked her hair.
“He told her she was pretty, he told her he liked young girls, he told her she should come to the Whitsundays to visit him and he would pay for her flights.
“She frantically gathered her belongings to get out as quickly as possible. In her rush, a piece of her underwear fell to the ground — he picked up the fallen underwear, he turned it over in his hands and told her he liked it.
“She grabbed her things and got out.”
The natural reaction to that is EWWW. Costigan will flame out just like Peter Dowling did.
Ahhh, Fata Morgana (a mirage) takes me back to (mis-spent) times driving through Boulia and the Birdsville track and always hoping to glimpse the Min-Min lights. It never happened, but it sent me researching all about thermal inversions and such. Ta, Historyintime, but some mirages (miracles?) do come true.
One such event occurred with AnnaPal’s election in 2015. To paraphrase Kerry Packer, ‘you’re lucky to meet one Campbell Newman in your lifetime’. Freckles may soon attest to that.