The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research finds 75% support for a net zero carbon pollution target by 2050, with only 25% opposed; 32% wishing to see coal-fired power plants phased out as soon as possible and another 47% wanting an end to subsidies and government support, compared with 21% wanting government support for both existing and new plants; and 80% support for the government preventing people entering the country from China due to coronavirus, with only 6% opposed. There are further questions and breakdowns in the report, but not a lot to get excited about on the whole – I can only beseech the pollster to bite the bullet and get back in the voting intention game.
To add more meat to this post, I will instead probe deeper into the report on the political impact of the bushfires published last week by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This was based on a regular panel survey conducted by the centre on a roughly quarterly basis, largely dealing with questions such as satisfaction with governments, public institutions and life in general. Since most of the respondents had also completed previous surveys, the report is able to explore changes in voting intention and attitudes over time. On this occasion, the survey was supplemented by questions on respondents’ exposure to the bushfires.
The study found a slump in electoral support for the Coalition, from 42.6% in the October survey to 37.2%, with Labor up from 33.7% to 35.8%, the Greens up from 14.4% to 14.7% (which is obviously too high at both ends) and others up from 9.3% to 11.2% (after excluding non-respondents, of which there were 5.1% in October and 6.6% in January). However, it did not find evidence that the fall in Coalition support was particularly pronounced among those who had been exposed to the bushfires.
Some of the factors that did associate with defection from the Coalition suggest an intensification of trends evident at the election, with university-educated voters more likely to have abandoned the Coalition and voters aged 75 and over less likely to have done so. However, the Coalition had a particular drop in support outside capital cities, though not in a way that suggested exposure to the fires was the reason. Out of the sample of 618 Coalition defectors, 43.9% supported Labor, 14.3% the Greens and 24.7% others, with the remainder uncommitted.
Consistent with the findings of the Ipsos Issues Monitor survey in January, the number of respondents rating environmental issues as the first or second most important facing the country rose from 41.5% in the October survey to 49.7%. For whatever reason, there was a significant effect here for indirect exposure to the bushfire (having friends or family whose properties were damaged or threatened, having travel plans affected, or exposure to smoke or anxiety), but not for direct exposure. However, as the report notes, what the survey registered as concern for environmental issues extended to blaming “the greenies” for the extent of the fires.
Support for new coal mines was down from 45.3% in the June survey to 37.0%, with the fall particularly pronounced among Coalition voters, down from 71.8% to 57.5%. However, those directly exposed to the bushfires who had expressed support for coal mines in June were relatively resistant to this trend.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #700 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 12:44 pm
Don’t let the hole collapse on you as you continue to dig your way down.
a r says:
Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 11:01 am
beguiledagain @ #650 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 9:55 am
But $1.25 trillion over 10 years is $125 billion a year isn’t it?
Yes.
However the deficit over 10 years is actually $12.5 trillion. As per the post you originally quoted:
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 4:25 pm
That’s a 12.5 Trillion Deficit to pay for Medicare for All. Bernie must have access to the Magic Money Tree.
So the per year would be $1.25 trillion. Which is fairly significant even for the U.S..
———————————————–
My aging eyes must have shifted the decimal point to the left. It’s a novel experience tossing trillions around.
However, are those who are attacking Bernie really saying that the richest country on the planet can not afford medicare for all? Or just that the U.S. people will not swallow that medicine.
Canada, with one-tenth the population of the U.S. has had that kind of system, everything bulk-billed, for 50 years. They spend about $170 billion for it. The country hasn’t gone broke.
If you take the usual 10 per cent extrapolation, it would mean that medicare for all in the U.S. would come in around $1.7 trillion. Perhaps someone out there can tell us how much the U.S.federal government spends now on hospital and medical services and what the shortfall would be. And why the people of the U.S. would reject it.
We know that the U.S. spends more than 17 per cent of GDP on health or nearly $10,000 per capita, double that of Australia and Canada. Less than 50 per cent of that is paid by government.
And Tristo was bang-on when he suggested Labor should concentrate for 2022 on a signature policy of making all hospital and physician services bulk-billed instead of the crazy, co-payment, gap, two-tier joke that Australian Medicare is.
I shouldn’t have to remind you what was the most potent weapon for Labor in the last few election cycles. Yes Mediscare. It almost put Bill Shorten in the Lodge.
And you better check my math. I have form.
Player One @ #701 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 9:45 am
Yep, P1 logic;
You leave a hole by travelling downwards.
Boerwar @ #692 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 11:26 am
dependent on where the cow lives ?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #703 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 12:47 pm
You’ll reach China eventually.
U.S. Identifies First Coronavirus Case Without Outbreak Ties
U.S. health authorities said they’ve identified the first case of coronavirus that doesn’t have known ties to an existing outbreak, a worrying signal that the virus is circulating in the U.S. despite reassurances from the Trump administration that it’s contained.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the patient doesn’t appear to have traveled to China or been exposed to another known case of the coronavirus. Health authorities are increasingly concerned about what’s known as community spread, where the virus begins circulating freely among people outside of quarantines or known contacts with other patients.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-27/u-s-identifies-first-coronavirus-case-without-ties-to-outbreak?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=politics
lizzie says:
Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 11:37 am
Greg Jericho
@GrogsGamut
·
1h
Easily one of the worst things done by the Gillard govt… and among the worst things done by any ALP govt.
***
Zuvele
@ZuveleLeschen
·
38s
Except it was Howard who did this. Even without Gillard’s cancellation of the grandfathering provisions, every single parent would be on Newstart today. She just got some of them there more quickly.
————————
This is where people become cynical with politicians because Zoomster starts out claiming that it was Howard then admits Gillard speed the process up. To many people politicians and partisans sound like 5 year olds whinging but he did it first. The successful long term governments generally avoid this kind of political moaning.
Tea Pain @TeaPainUSA
Trump’s press conference showed us that the Coronavirus is the second most dangerous threat to America.
beguiledagain
Let’s not forget that The Lancet, that well-known hotbed of communist propaganda, published a report by that evil Professor Alison Galvani PhD which suggests that US healthcare costs would fall after implementation of Medicare-for-All. I just don’t know who’s judgement to trust on this, the evil Professor or a couple of amateur political analysts on an insignificant Australian blogsite forum.
Mexican
I suspect that the reason that zoomster pointed out that Howard initiated the change was that she is tired of the Greens claiming that everything bad was and is initiated by Labor.
phoenixRED says:
Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 11:50 am
Trump Melts Down And Blames The Democratic Debate For Stock Market Plummet
Trump admitted the real reason why he held the Coronavirus press conference as he blamed the stock market plummet on the Democratic debate.
Trump said, “I think the financial markets are very upset when they look at the Democrat candidates standing on that stage making fools out of themselves, and they say we have to have a president like this, and there’s always a possibility. It’s an election, you know, who knows what happens? I think we’re going to win. I think we’re going to win by a lot, but when they look at the statements made by the people standing behind those podiums, I think it has an effect, yes.”
———————-
There could be some truth in that if we were only talking about the American stock markets being down.
Lizzie
I gathered that was part of the reason why she decided to take a break from this place.
Bellwether @ #694 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 1:10 pm
…That you can’t seem to get enough of, if only to sneer at people here on a regular basis simply for the crime of having a different opinion to YOURS.
Mexicanbeemer @ #696 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 1:13 pm
Not Coronavirus being on the up. 😐
Mexican
I haven’t discussed her reasons with her. I imagine they were, as the Americans say, multiple.
“Trump Melts Down And Blames The Democratic Debate For Stock Market Plummet”
I seem to recall that very recently (a few days ago) that it is was all the nasty fake news media’s fake and nasty news that caused the market to plummet because they wanted to get Trump said Trump about Trump.
I would like to understand how committing to net zero emissions is walking away from “its commitment to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement”.
C@tmomma @ #714 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 1:20 pm
No, a different opinion to the Professor.
Quiggen, an economist-turned-Greenhand, now retails Libkin lies about Labor.
Fuck him too.
He put his religious nutjob of a V.P. in charge? Thoughts and prayers will save the day. Hooray! The US is saved. Hooray!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/26/coronavirus-latest-updates-who-mission-director-warns-world-is-simply-not-ready
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-cdc.html
Boerwar
“Morrisonism: The cows have a swimming pool.”
Under the guise of male change rooms being provided for them…
Kronomex @ #705 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 1:29 pm
But he sure looks good at looking like he is doing something. 😐
P1
I see you have just had an exchange with Bin…who invokes my name quite a lot.
I lament that his ducking, weaving and misrepresentations aren’t even witty or creative, but pathetically transparent. He really needs to lift his game.
lizzie says:
Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 12:27 pm
The world’s major wind-driven ocean currents are moving toward the poles at a rate of about a mile every two years, potentially depriving important coastal fishing waters of important nutrients and raising the risk of sea level rise, extreme storms and heatwaves for some adjacent land areas.
The oceans off the SW of WA comprise one of the fastest-heating zones in the global marine environment.
This has almost destroyed the abalone colonies of the south coast. It has radically shifted the distribution of Australian salmon, which now run off the coast rather than inshore; and it has all but destroyed the inshore herring fishery. This fishery used to extend from north of Perth at least to Albany. At its peak, it produced thousands of tonnes of mainly recreational catch each year. The fishery is now closed, with the biomass now thought to be close to collapse and distribution confined to a few locations around the SW extremity.
Hypoxia – driven by oceanic warming – has caused recurrent destruction of marine flora and fauna species right around the WA coast from NW Cape to the Bight.
The Guardian
Labor has also backed the government’s small and medium business fund.
From AAP:
Small and medium businesses will soon be able to access a new $540m investment fund to stimulate growth.
Labor will back the coalition government’s election promise, paving the way for legislation to pass federal parliament.
Eligible Australian businesses will be able to access investments of between $5m and $15m, provided they can demonstrate three years of growth and profitability.
The Australian Business Growth Fund will get $100m from taxpayers with each of the big four banks matching the contribution.
HSBC and Macquarie Group will tip in $20m apiece to give the fund an initial $540m, which is estimated to rise to $1bn as it matures.
Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson criticised spending $100m of public money on a fund run by the big banks.
“Why give them a leg up by essentially giving them control of an enormously influential private equity fund in the area of small and medium enterprise financing,” he told parliament.
Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick raised concerns the fund’s investment instructions were not public.
“It begs the question, why do you ask the Senate to vote on it when we are blind to the mandate,” he said.
—————–
Political donations to both major parties pays off once again.
The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/feb/27/coalition-labor-morrison-sports-rorts-inquiry-labor-politics-live?page=with:block-5e5717d48f0811db2faff4fa#block-5e5717d48f0811db2faff4fa
This motion, from Larissa Waters, just failed the Senate – the day after a vigil for Hannah Clarke and her children was held in parliament:
Pauline Hanson called a vote on the motion (Waters puts forward this motion every fortnight, with the updated figure of women who have been killed in domestic and family violence incidents – a lot of the time it is passed on the voices).
Once the vote was called, Hanson, Malcolm Roberts, the government and Jacqui Lambie voted it down.
Bellwether @ #703 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 1:28 pm
And it was YOUR opinion that someone who you had chosen as having the definitive opinion was THE opinion to have. Someone who is an expert in Epidemiolgy and Evolutionary Ecology:
https://ocr.yale.edu/faculty/alison_galvani
Not specifically an expert in costing a plan such as Medicare For All Even Those Who Don’t Want It And Are Forced To Abandon Their Private Health Insurance, but close enough for Bernie Sanders.
Which is all beside the point that Bernie Sanders wouldn’t be able to get the plan through Congress anyway, as even some Democrats have said they won’t support it, and Republicans definitely won’t, so even discussing it is moot.
Lynchpin @ #718 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 1:25 pm
Am I the only one who bothered to actually read the article?
Labor dumped the policies they took to the last election. This is not in dispute.
Labor have also upped their commitment to coal, which at least they were ambiguous about before the election. This is not in dispute either, and (in my view!) probably explains the “full retreat” comment by John Quiggin.
When this position started to look a little untenable – probably triggered by the NT fracking fracas – they decided to renew their commitment to the Paris Agreement, which is in fact the least they could get away with. We – and I mean “we, Australia” – whether Labor and Liberal are in government – are effectively committed to “net zero by 2050” by that agreement. I don’t think this is in dispute either (although it is fair to say many people don’t seem to understand that).
As I keep saying, I thought the article was fairly even-handed. Nothing it says seems to be in dispute. Essentially, it concludes that Labor has made a start at rebuilding their policies, but they have not actually made any real progress yet.
Hence, the title of the article – just one cheer for Labor, not three.
Is that so difficult to comprehend?
RHW
Thanks very much for this. I thought Ian Mackay’s article was useful and sensible, so it is good to have confirmation.
I am going to now raise this with my work OH&S committee. We have a situation here where staff sit with 8 different students over a 2-hour period, to give research analysis support etc. It is great educationally, but I noticed last year that I kept getting colds and flus when I was doing several of these sessions per week. This year I am down to one session – the risk has been shard by a larger number of staff – and had my first one yesterday.
I sit at a small table with each student while I go through their experimental reports. We share a pen, and both the student and I touch and annotate the report. Last night I realised that this would be a perfect way to spread COVID 19. This morning after reading Ian Mackay’s article I am more concerned.
I presume that using the hand disinfectant would be a big help. Do you think a mask is essential? Culturally that is not what we do around here, but maybe it is time to break with culture.
Any advice from anyone would be appreciated.
It is one of the reasons I give William the (not so) big bucks – this place has an amazing brains trust!
Pegasus @ #724 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 1:39 pm
Yes, I should learn not to bite, shouldn’t I? 🙁
Old convictions for minor crimes to be wiped from the records
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/old-convictions-for-minor-crimes-to-be-wiped-from-the-records-20200227-p544wh.html
RHW
Just saw this – thanks!
I will concentrate on keeping my hands folded, like I do when peering into high voltage equipment.
I note that quite a few ‘how to prepare for the coronavirus’ articles are now advocating a kind of moderate stockpiling and recommending a quite extensive list of items to be accumulated.
I witnessed a bloke in Aldi yesterday placing dozens and dozens of tinned goods in his trolley and it took me a while to realise what he was up to.
I reckon this now mainstream advice could backfire badly – I’ve already checked my cupboards to see what we’re short of and don’t know if it’s alarmist or not.
Now IF I do decide to get a bit in it will be enough for a week or two and mainly dried pulses. I can certainly see Panic buying becoming an issue as those with the resources stock up bigly.
RI – you are in accurate. Where you get thousands of tonnes from is anyone’s guess. There was only a partial closure of commercial fisheries and there is still commercial herring fishing done in WA. The current landed commercial catch in WA is about 80 tonnes from a number of commercial fisheries on the south and west coasts still permitted to take herring. The reasoning behind the closure is disputed and there are calls to reopen the closed areas.
Recreational fishing has never been stopped. I can tell you that herring have been plentiful in the Perth area and we hit our bag/boat limit every night for the week we have been on holiday each summer for the past five years at least.
C@tmomma
I made no judgement on who’s opinion should be given more weight, I don’t have an opinion myself on a subject as complex as the cost of US healthcare. How could a total schmuck like myself possibly understand a labyrinthine structure like that?
Douglas and Milko @ #733 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 12:54 pm
Share a pen?! Get a supply of Bics so everyone can have their own. And hand sanitizer for all parties before and after.
Douglas & Milko
Hand washing.
Bellwether @ #720 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 2:01 pm
Exactly. No one can be definitive. Some can have a better grasp of it than others but at the end of the day the cost of Medicare For All will depend on what can be gotten through Congress. All else is mere speculation before the fact….To the extent that rough estimates are able to give a guide but no more than that.
That is why I took the rough estimates supplied by the Sanders’ campaign themselves $(30-12.5) Trillion and made the seemingly obvious point that even they admit that it can’t pay for itself. So, then what? And it seems an answer the campaign won’t give people.
Douglas and Milko @ #692 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 1:51 pm
Thanks very much for this. I thought Ian Mackay’s article was useful and sensible, so it is good to have confirmation.
I am going to now raise this with my work OH&S committee. We have a situation here where staff sit with 8 different students over a 2-hour period, to give research analysis support etc. It is great educationally, but I noticed last year that I kept getting colds and flus when I was doing several of these sessions per week. This year I am down to one session – the risk has been shard by a larger number of staff – and had my first one yesterday.
I sit at a small table with each student while I go through their experimental reports. We share a pen, and both the student and I touch and annotate the report. Last night I realised that this would be a perfect way to spread COVID 19. This morning after reading Ian Mackay’s article I am more concerned.
I presume that using the hand disinfectant would be a big help. Do you think a mask is essential? Culturally that is not what we do around here, but maybe it is time to break with culture.
Any advice from anyone would be appreciated.
It is one of the reasons I give William the (not so) big bucks – this place has an amazing brains trust!
I would suggest everyone own pen and getting into the habit of gelling your hands from a personal bottle every time you touch a surface. Assume that there is invisible wet paint on everything. You can wipe hard surfaces with alcohol or other disinfectants (which still takes 30 sec to work), but that tends to make the ink run.
Mask are of little protection – except as an aid-memoir not to touch your mouth, nose or eyes, and as a social signal (unless, of course, you are the one doing the coughing/sneezing etc, in which case self-isolation would be better). I’m not saying don’t use them, just don’t trust them.
If we get this correct, the flu season may be a lot less of a problem than in the past – though not for those unable to take precautions. The flu vaccine uptake may be spectacular.
Coronavirus fears spark racism towards hospital’s doctors
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/vic/2020/02/27/coronavirus-racism-doctors/
Canadians who can afford it travel to the US for Health Care to avoid the waiting lists and get the best care money can buy.
US Citizens who can’t afford US Health Care try and go to Canada to get free health care.
“Canada, though, isn’t much of a medical tourism hotspot for Americans… or even for people from other countries.
“We don’t have nearly as much incoming medical tourism as we do departing medical tourism,” said Amy Zarzeczny, an associate professor in the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Regina in Saskatchewan.
“Although robust data is difficult to obtain, the sense is that more Canadians leave Canada to receive care elsewhere than we have individuals coming here from outside the country for medical care.”
Some estimates suggest that Canadians traveling abroad spent $447 million on medical care in 2013, compared to $150 million spent on medical care by foreign visitors coming to Canada.
This data doesn’t detail how many of the inbound medical tourists were Americans.”
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-is-rand-paul-going-to-canada-for-surgery#Americans-traveling-for-medical-care
I found this an interesting snapshot of how everyone has an opinion and they don’t all agree:
* The Fix’s Aaron Blake declares Warren and Biden the winners and Sanders and Bloomberg the losers.
*Post columnist Jen Rubin: “Biden needed the debate of his life. He delivered.”
* CNN’s Chris Cillizza says Buttigieg, Biden, Klobuchar, Sanders and Trump won, while Bloomberg and Warren lost.
* Vox’s team says Sanders won and Klobuchar lost.
* The Guardian’s Jessa Crispin says Warren dominated the mic but Sanders held his ground.
* FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver thinks Biden “pulled out his best debate with his back to the wall.”
* Democratic operative Mary Anne Marsh, writing for Fox News, calls Sanders, Warren and Biden winners, but she thinks the other four candidates onstage lost.
* The New Republic’s Walter Shapiro thinks Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar fared well, but Sanders and Bloomberg lost ground.
* Bloomberg Opinion’s Ramesh Ponnuru said Biden and Bloomberg performed better than they did at last week’s debate, but he argues that Sanders emerged victorious.
* Mother Jones’s Edwin Rios and Nathalie Baptiste said the debate was pretty much a pandering fest to South Carolina’s black voters.
🙂
Trump won the debate again.
He can’t wait for Bernie to get the nomination.
The Democrats are even stupider than I thought they could possibly be.
Thank goodness Paul Keating handed CSL a licence to print money for Australia.
This is Ian Mackay’s list. OTT?
“Below we list things we’ll need to have in case of a more major interruption to supply; a stock that will last 2 weeks. Some of these things will last much longer and include items that may not be a top priority for authorities to keep stocked:
Extra prescription medications, asthma relief inhalers
Some of these may be a problem, so talk to your doctor soon.
Over-the-counter anti-fever and pain medications
paracetamol and ibuprofen can go a long way to making us feel less sick
Feminine hygiene products
Family pack of toilet paper
Vitamins
In case food shortages limit the variety in your diet
Alcohol-containing hand rub
Soap
Household cleaning agents
Bleach, floor cleaner, toilet cleaner, surface cleaning spray, laundry detergent
Tissues, paper towel
Cereals, grains, beans, lentils, , pasta
Tinned food – fish, vegetables, fruit
Oil, spices and flavours
Dried fruit and nuts
Ultra-heat treated or powdered milk
Ian is not drinking black coffee, no matter what
Batteries for anythign that need batteries
Think about elderly relative’s needs
Their medications, pets, pandemic stash, plans for care (see later)
Pet food and care
Dry and tinned food, litter tray liners, medicines, anti-flea drops
Soft drink or candy/chocolate for treats
The last-minute fresh list
In a more severe pandemic, supply chain issues may mean fresh food becomes harder to get. So this list is an add-on to the one above, and its items should be the last things to buy if you have a hint of when supplies might slow or stop for a (hopefully short) time.
Bread, wraps
Meat for freezing
Milk
Eggs
Yogurt
Vegetables, fruit
Fuel “
Kate
I think the advice is good, and people would have started panic buying anyway, as some of the MSM are into full panic mode.
I did a mental inventory of my pulse collection at lunchtime, so a quick visit to ALDI will fill any gaps. I am also really glad of the herb garden I got going over summer, and my curry leaf tree. We can live on dals for ages. Fresh onions and garlic would be the main things I would miss, but then garlic keeps for ages as well. And I have peen replanting the shallot (green onion) ends in the garden. After two weeks I have a perfect new green onion, which I just snip off leaving the base planted.
I do not expect to have to resort to this, but did go through the inventory process after reading a few articles.
It’s time
Excellent advice!
Thanks RHW!
Kate, you can make your own yoghurt from the UHT milk (with some powdered milk added to thicken it up).
Of course you will need some natural yoghurt to start with. I have been making my own yoghurt for 5.5 years with the same yoghurt bugs (yes, the same ones because they split into two as they multiply). Never run out.