A track winding back

A look at leadership approval poll trends, and my new facility for tracking them.

BludgerTrack is back, sort of – you can find a permanent link on the sidebar along with a miniature version of its main attraction, namely polling trends for leader approval and preferred prime minister. These go back to the onset of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership in August last year, and thus encompass distinct Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese epochs.

As you can see, Morrison has mostly gravitated around neutral on his net rating (i.e. approval minus disapproval), barring a post-election surge that has now run its course. Shorten’s position appeared to improve during the election campaign, which was also picked up in Labor’s internal polling, though clearly not far enough. Albanese has mostly been around neutral, but as a newcomer he has a high uncommitted rating, which doesn’t come through when you reduce it to a net measure. This is how he manages to do worse than Shorten on preferred prime minister (although a narrowing trend kicked in here a few months ago) despite doing better on net approval.

I haven’t included the most recent Newspoll result at this stage, as this is clearly a distinct new series for which I will require a few more results before I can standardise it against the other polls. On the basis of this limited evidence, the new-look Newspoll’s leader rating scores can be expected to behave somewhat differently from the old. As Kevin Bonham notes, the new poll has markedly worse net ratings for both leaders, as uncommitted rates are lower and disapproval higher.

Needless to say, what’s missing in all this is voting intention, for which I am going to need a good deal more data before I reckon it worth my while. If you’re really keen though, Mark the Ballot has gone to the trouble of running a trendline through all six of the Newspoll results post-election. If nothing else, my BludgerTrack page features a “poll data” tab on which voting intention polls will be catalogued, which for the time being is wall-to-wall Newspoll. And while I have your attention, please note as per the post above that I’ve got the begging bowl out – donations gratefully received through the link at the top of the page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “A track winding back”

Comments Page 2 of 23
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  5. Victoria @ #41 Saturday, November 30th, 2019 – 10:23 am

    C@t

    Thank you.
    It has been a very stressful week. Im going to see him later on. He has improved and is stable. The antibiotics are working so far. So his prognosis is more positive than it was a few days ago.

    That’s really good to hear, Vic. 🙂

    My late husband contracted septicaemia from a feral cat bite. You wouldn’t believe what little immunity we have to some foreign bacteria!

  6. lizzie

    I once switched doctors because they kept billing my husband, even though the Medicare card had me as Number 1 and I had filled out all the paperwork in my name.

    All went fine, until my husband had an appointment at the new doctor’s – – and from then on, the bills started coming to him.

    I used to wonder what would happen if I put a notice in the paper saying I wasn’t going to take responsibility for his debts!

    *In the MacKenzie case, I think what’s happened is that I’ve been excluded because of my known political connections — but excluding constituents on any grounds is a bit iffy, surely?

  7. I see bakunin is still on his condescending elitist tip and proving why The Greens just don’t get ordinary people. It’s a fact, going by bakunin’s contributions, that to a Green, anyone not as smart as them is beneath contempt.

  8. Sterling effort BK. You must have a high pain threshold!

    I posted this on the old thread and got caught out by the change:

    I caught the end of an ABC news bulletin last night. The item that caught my attention was about the RAAF Growler that caught on fire in the US a couple of years ago. Apparently it wasn’t covered by warranty and the US will not be paying compensation.
    Cut to liberal non-entity who proceeded to blame, who else, but labor for Not having the appropriate clause in the contract.

    Did a search and found this article

    https://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/australia-to-buy-24-super-hornets-as-interim-gapfiller-to-jsf-02898/

    Interesting to note this line:

    “In December 2006, Liberal Party Defence Minister Brendan Nelson was discussing an A$ 3 billion (about $2.36 billion) purchase of 24 F/A-18F Block II Super Hornet external link aircraft to fill the fighter gap. The move was described as “a surprise to senior defence officials on Russell Hill,” but hurried requests and contracts quickly made it an official purchase. Australia’s subsequent Labor government decided to keep them rather than pay cancellation fees, but added an interesting option to convert 12 into EA-18G electronic warfare planes. Now more of the fighters and electronic warfare aircraft may be on the way.”

    If Labor varied the order, does this not suggest that in his haste, Nelson was in fact the one to not include the clause?

  9. This government, only six months old, is floundering badly, with Morrison showing what a dill he is, his extraordinary phone call to Fuller and his dogged protection of Taylor bearing testimony thereof. His government will limp to the end of the year with its tail between its legs, with the defeat of its union-busting signature bill, and the religious freedom bill now looking extremely shaky. Although it’s too early to suggest the electorate’s losing faith in his judgment (as it did fairly early with Abbott), another week like this one will cement in the public’s mind that he’s unfit for the office he holds.

    Meanwhile, Labor’s starting to strut its stuff, on the front foot with Taylor, Morrison’s call to Fuller, and orchestrating the defeat of the Ensuring Integrity Bill. Yes, there are at least two years before the next election but incrementally chipping away at this sham of a government will ultimately yield dividends. This is a government that went to the election with no real policies, its reason for being almost solely to wield power and to prop up its corporate mates. And if, as is predicted, summer will result in disastrous bush fires, the public will become more and more concerned with global warming, not happy with a government replete with denialists. The snake-oil salesman’s gloss is certainly wearing thin.

  10. Aqualung,
    The Coalition are quite confident that time-poor, low information voters will just swallow the Coalition’s lies. That’s all they care about. They don’t care about the true facts stated.

  11. zoomster

    excluding constituents on any grounds is a bit iffy, surely?

    She’s not very smart and doesn’t seem to have the answers to any questions, but she knows how to dispense pork.

  12. P1, you are faking a conclusion. The report does not consider the case of falling prices. It considers the opposite…a situation where volume demanded would be in excess of volume supplied. We do not have such a context. You are just making shit up, as is your wont. But go ahead. Fabricate more rubbish. You’ll find there is as much interest in it as there is in Galilee coal. SFA.

  13. Am going to see this today, looking forward to it given the star cast.

    Daniel Craig delivers a slab of Smithfield-sized ham in “Knives Out,” a cheekily playful updating of Agatha Christie by way of Trump-era politics.

    Don’t let that scare you off. Nearly every ideological tribe comes in for gentle ribbing from writer-director Rian Johnson, who seems to have confected his comedic thriller specifically to defuse even the most tense Thanksgiving table standoffs. Populated by a quirky ensemble of miscreants, ne’er-do-wells, misfits and at least one hilariously moony New Age doyenne, “Knives Out” doesn’t hesitate to get a few licks in regarding immigration politics, liberal hypocrisy, Internet trollery and the we-built-that mythologies of inherited wealth. But mostly Johnson is here to revive a nearly lost form cherished by fans of everything from “Murder on the Orient Express” and “Sleuth” to the board game Clue. In this busy, bickering whodunit, the hints pile as quickly as the inside-family insults, but it would be a shame to be distracted by the actual mystery at hand. The fun here — and there is a lot of it — is to be had simply in allowing an ensemble of game, generous-spirited actors to give their all in service to the fine art of misdirection and mayhem.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/goingoutguide/movies/knives-out-is-like-a-game-of-clue-come-to-life-only-even-more-fun/2019/11/25/61a856b8-0a3c-11ea-8397-a955cd542d00_story.html?arc404=true

  15. Barney and Fred

    Nope and nope. Try again! I’ll pop back in later today and see if anyone has figured it out.

    Remember, the number is 472,400.

    Four hundred and seventy two thousand, four hundred.

  16. High in the Peruvian Andes, agronomists are looking to the ancestral knowledge of farmers to identify genetic strains which could help the tubers survive increasingly frequent and intense droughts, floods and frosts.

    The Potato Park in Cusco is a 90 sq km (35 sq mile) expanse ranging from 3,400 to 4,900 metres (16,000 feet) above sea level. It has “maintained one of the highest diversities of native potatoes in the world, in a constant process of evolution,” says Alejandro Argumedo, the founder of Asociación Andes, an NGO which supports the park.

    “By sowing potatoes at different altitudes and in different combinations, these potatoes create new genetic expressions which will be very important to respond to the challenges of climate change.”

    Under a cobalt sky by an icy mountain lagoon, a father and his son-in-law hoe thick brown soil. They pull out reddish potatoes and throw them into waiting sacks.

    The pucasawsiray potatoes they gather are among the 1,367 varieties in the park, which lies in the Sacred Valley of the Incas. The intensely cultivated patchwork of tiny fields and graded terraces is a living laboratory of potato diversity.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/29/how-perus-potato-museum-could-stave-off-world-food-crisis

  19. This government, only six months old, is floundering badly

    I never did subscribe the msm narrative that the next election is a foregone conclusion. And while the last election result was disappointing, I’ve always maintained that the govt was returned not because voters particularly think it’s doing a good job, but because they got scared off with Labor’s agenda being front and centre and out there.

    The coalition don’t have a substantial parliamentary majority to play with either, and definitely have their C Team in the ministry. So, I’m not as pessimistic about 2022 as many others are.

  21. lizzie:

    [‘I also like it that “christians” are objecting to Porter’s religious discrimination bill.’]

    Yes, and en masse. Isn’t it great?

  22. Why did Angus attack Clover Moore when he’s a federal MP?

    Denise Allen
    @denniallen
    ·
    1h
    Yes….he was trying to politically damage @CloverMoore to give his wife Louise Clegg a leg up in her run for Sydney Lord Mayor. Exactly what this is all about. #auspol #MSM @GuardianAus

    @smh

  25. This government, only six months old, is floundering badly

    This government has always been floundering badly, from its point of inception in 2013 until the present day. The first mistake is thinking that voters either notice or care. The second mistake is supposing they believe there is a viable alternative. Voters have pitifully low expectancy. They are seldom ever disappointed in Governments because they expect very little from them.

  27. C@t,

    Not sure why you’d think pointing out an error fact and a logical fallacy was treating someone with contempt? Or are you a Trumpkinite Troll too?

  29. Always nice to spread a little rumour, isn’t it?

    Bruce Haigh @bruce_haigh
    · 7h
    #aupol The word from insiders, real insiders, is that Dutton is going to work the phones over the Xmas break. He sees himself in with a chance. He reckons if Morrison continues as he is Albo is in with a chance. He will push that line. Porter watching the play. Josh not favoured.

  32. ‘bakunin says:
    Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 10:37 am

    BW,

    Hilarious.
    Faced with facts that prove you are completely full of shit, you resort to cut and paste whataboutism and fake “facts”.
    Does Moscow pay you per word or per post?’

    1. A Greens facing facts? That would be a start! I doubt that any Inner Urbs Greens would claim that the Inner Urbs are not a biodiversity disaster. If you personally are having difficulty with the concept, check distribution contractions out of the Inner Urbs for listed species under the EPBC Act and/or state listed species.

    2. I doubt that any Greens anywhere is still pretending that the Greens do not have, as a matter of policy, the intention of wholesale destruction of rural and regional industries, jobs and towns. As noted above, the list is not comprehensive. It is but a taster. I note that, faced with this reality, you resort to schatology and personal abuse.

    3. As for your allusion Moscow, your notion that Mr Putin has even a skerrick of interest in a minor loser party at the far end of the world is the sort of delusion of grandeur that seems to be part and parcel of the world view of some Greens. But not all.

  33. And not to forget that this is the government that caused undue harm to many with “robo-debt”, reversing the onus of proof, incorrectly assessing annual income, and now expected to cost hundreds of millions, overseen by the very shonky Stuart Robert, and to prop up, on some accounts, the almost Holy Relic known as the surplus:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-s-robo-debt-bill-could-run-to-hundreds-of-millions-after-landmark-case-20191128-p53ewl.html

  35. ‘Kronomex says:
    Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 11:18 am

    The next thing you know is that the super-dooper navy rubber dinghy with the rubber band powered nerf cannon will sink while on maneuvers.’

    And now for some context:

    Is it your personal view that China’s attempt to gain control over all developments on Tulagi for the next three quarters of a century:

    1. Is irrelevant to Australia’s security.
    2. Increases Australia’s security.
    3. Reduces Australia’s security.

  36. C@tmomma re the Super Hornets.
    I guess the question to ask is if the original planes ordered and delivered had had the same problem as the Growlers, would we have been compensated?
    Clearly the US play hardball on this sort of thing.

  37. “1h
    Yes….he was trying to politically damage @CloverMoore to give his wife Louise Clegg a leg up in her run for Sydney Lord Mayor. Exactly what this is all about. #auspol #MSM @GuardianAus”

    Ok…if plausibly true there is a wow moment. 🙁 If his wife was running against Clover Moore and the Ministers office ran a “fake news” campaign then Taylor is in deep shit and has shall we say, questions to answer. Makes the police investigation into where the document Taylor used came from and whether it was a forgery pretty important.

  38. Adani?
    Australian’s voted in the Party that supported Adani at the last election.
    What else do we need to know?
    That burning more coal will speed up global warming?
    D’Oh!
    That the Greens’ preferred solution, Zero/2030, gained 10% of the vote?
    D’Oh!

  39. For those who don’t know.

    Ectopic pregnancy

    A pregnancy in which the fertilised egg implants outside the uterus.

    The fertilised egg can’t survive outside the uterus. If left to grow, it may damage nearby organs and cause life-threatening loss of blood.

    Such concern for the woman!

  42. lizzie:

    [‘The word from insiders, real insiders, is that Dutton is going to work the phones over the Xmas break. He sees himself in with a chance.’]

    Labor would welcome a Dutton spill. Even the threat of one is extremely destabilising.

  43. Barney:

    It’s the slippery slope that happens when you define a fertilised egg as an unborn human. Meanwhile never mind the risk to the life of an actual, living, breathing human being!

  46. If there’s truth in rumour of a Dutton leadership tilt, I suspect we’ll see the sharing & caring side of him in the coming months. He could start by taking up NZ’s offer to take some of our refugees, in the absence of placing a caveat on them.

  47. SCOTUS Justice Bader Ginsburg on the mend again:

    [‘https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-30/ruth-bader-ginsburg-is-a-judge-and-a-liberal-icon/11745190’]

  48. Police probe is only gonna get anywhere by a raid on Taylor’s office.

    Is there enough for a search warrant? It’s a pretty obscure offence.

  49. This is how it works under Stuart Robert. NDIA executives and consultants are appointed but underspend on NDIS used for the sacred surplus.

    Stuart Tomlinson @virgotweet

    Stuart Robert appointed Martin Hoffman as CEO to NDIA & gave him $!60,000 pay rise bringing his salary to $720,000 – 94 executives appointed to NDIA at a cost of $23 million – A Consultancy Firm appointed NDIS @ $23 Million & a $4.6 Billion NDIS underspend used to boost Budget

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