A track winding back

A look at leadership approval poll trends, and my new facility for tracking them.

BludgerTrack is back, sort of – you can find a permanent link on the sidebar along with a miniature version of its main attraction, namely polling trends for leader approval and preferred prime minister. These go back to the onset of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership in August last year, and thus encompass distinct Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese epochs.

As you can see, Morrison has mostly gravitated around neutral on his net rating (i.e. approval minus disapproval), barring a post-election surge that has now run its course. Shorten’s position appeared to improve during the election campaign, which was also picked up in Labor’s internal polling, though clearly not far enough. Albanese has mostly been around neutral, but as a newcomer he has a high uncommitted rating, which doesn’t come through when you reduce it to a net measure. This is how he manages to do worse than Shorten on preferred prime minister (although a narrowing trend kicked in here a few months ago) despite doing better on net approval.

I haven’t included the most recent Newspoll result at this stage, as this is clearly a distinct new series for which I will require a few more results before I can standardise it against the other polls. On the basis of this limited evidence, the new-look Newspoll’s leader rating scores can be expected to behave somewhat differently from the old. As Kevin Bonham notes, the new poll has markedly worse net ratings for both leaders, as uncommitted rates are lower and disapproval higher.

Needless to say, what’s missing in all this is voting intention, for which I am going to need a good deal more data before I reckon it worth my while. If you’re really keen though, Mark the Ballot has gone to the trouble of running a trendline through all six of the Newspoll results post-election. If nothing else, my BludgerTrack page features a “poll data” tab on which voting intention polls will be catalogued, which for the time being is wall-to-wall Newspoll. And while I have your attention, please note as per the post above that I’ve got the begging bowl out – donations gratefully received through the link at the top of the page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “A track winding back”

  1. Mavis

    Morrison has not dealt with the Banks.

    See latest news about Westpac. We are at the point where groups like a doctors organisation is moving their custom because of the criminal cowboy behaviour.

    Of course no director board member or CEO is in jail yet.

  2. lizzie:

    [‘Luckily, I don’t text teens, only “mature” people who can read.’]

    I can’t even do that. And I wouldn’t be concerned with the number of posts. Just look at the contributions of some yesterday, some of which were almost the length of a first year uni essay. And sorry to learn you’re in pain.

  3. Mexicanbeemer @ #855 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 2:47 pm

    Guytaur
    What people seem to be forgetting is that Westpac is being charged by the “regulator” so the law is working.

    I’ll be happy if the penalty is so big that it destroys the bank and its business has to be handed over to the government for free.

    That would be true moral equivalence.

  4. Mavis

    Thank you. As for pain, situation pretty normal, just a bit sharper than usual. I have to distract myself by any means, such as politics. (The woman’s a weirdo.)

  5. guytaur:

    [‘Morrison has not dealt with the Banks.’]

    Strictly speaking, he hasn’t. Westpac, for example, face fines of $17m to $21m per its 230 million breaches of the AML/CTF Act, which, if applied, would result in total fines in the hundreds of trillions. This won’t happen, nor will any penal provisions be applied to those responsible. It’s a different kettle of fish for unions, though.

  6. guytaur

    Give Scrott a break . He has whipped the banksters with a feather AND ! a limp lettuce leaf. Which is twice as much as Truffles and Toned Abs 🙂

  7. County? Hazzard County? Is Trump Boss Hogg?

    Great writer and historian, Doug Wead, has written a true (not Fake News) account of what is going on in Washington and the White House. His new book, INSIDE TRUMP’S WHITE HOUSE, is sn incredible description of a very exciting and successful time in our County’s history. Buy it!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 2 December 2019

  8. Morrison’s capital is beset by Can the Planners, ATM.

    Ley and Littleproud have agreed to talk to the organizers. The latter are claiming that 2000 trucks are encircling the heart of our democracy and they also claim that they are not going to go home without water.

    Canberra has had .4mm since 9am, so that gives them something to go on with.

  9. More fluff and fury?

    Dr Naomi Wolf @naomirwolf
    · 2h
    Replying to @TheRealKerryG and @ABCFactCheck
    I was a Rhodes Scholar in Oxford 1985-88. Angus Taylor recalls me in a fever dream at Oxford in 1991 among those warring on Xmas.(I was in NYC). (Plus I love Christmas, Hannukah, Kwanzaa.) Flattered to be on this mythological hate list. Imaginary “war on Xmas” worked in US too.

  10. I see from Taylor’s speech quoted in the Guardian blog that “the foundation of democracy is free speech” and the “foundation of capitalism are (sic) property rights”. I am so glad to have that cleared up.

  11. Simon Katich says: Monday, December 2, 2019 at 4:01 pm

    County? Hazzard County? Is Trump Boss Hogg?

    Great writer and historian, Doug Wead, has written a true (not Fake News) account of what is going on in Washington and the White House. His new book, INSIDE TRUMP’S WHITE HOUSE, is sn incredible description of a very exciting and successful time in our County’s history. Buy it!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 2 December 2019

    *********************************************************

    Donald Trump recommending a book about himself ……. yeh…. nah

    How’s about “A Warning By Anonymous ” instead

    Trump Regularly ‘Can’t Remember What He’s Said or Been Told,’ White House Insider Says

    Much of the nearly 260 pages of the anonymous official’s tome, A Warning, which hit bookshelves on Tuesday, has been dedicated to sounding the alarm about Trump’s alarming behaviour

    “normal people who spend any time with Donald Trump are uncomfortable by what they witness.”

    “He stumbles, slurs, gets confused, is easily irritated, and has trouble synthesizing information, not occasionally but with regularity,” the official warns.

    Often, they say, “the president also can’t remember what he’s said or been told.”

    “Americans are used to him denying words that have come out of his mouth,” the senior official writes. “Sometimes this is to avoid responsibility.”

    However, they say it often “appears Trump genuinely doesn’t remember important facts.”

    The official writes that while Trump has often claimed to be highly intelligent, they say they have “seen the president fall flat on his face when trying to speak intelligently” on a number of topics on which he claims to be an expert.

    “You can see why behind closed doors his own top officials deride him as an ‘idiot’ and a ‘moron’ with the understanding of a ‘fifth or sixth grader,'” the unnamed senior official says.

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-anonymous-white-house-insider-memory-1472661

  12. Conservationists have launched a court battle against Clive Palmer’s proposed Queensland coalmine, saying it will destroy wildlife and impact graziers.

    The owners of the 8,000-hectare (20,000-acre) Bimblebox Nature Refuge in central Queensland filed an objection to Waratah Coal’s proposed mining project in the Galilee Basin on Monday in the land court in Brisbane.

    The Environmental Defenders Office CEO, David Morris, acting for the Bimblebox owners, said the project would destroy about half the nature refuge, which also operated as a cattle station.

    “The project consists of two open-cut pits and four underground mines that will totally destroy roughly 50% of the nature refuge and cut underneath the remainder, leaving it in ruins,” Morris said.

    “It will have a huge impact on local graziers and destroy a private conservation reserve that is one of the largest tracts of intact woodland in Queensland and home to hundreds of species, many of which are rare or endangered.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/02/conservationists-launch-court-fight-against-clive-palmers-proposed-coalmine

  13. …some of which were almost the length of an first year uni essay.

    Sometimes, when you have to deconstruct a blizzard of bs, they have to be. 😐

  14. Kronomex @ #869 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 4:34 pm

    No, it’s Scummo, Friedbrainburger, the Corminator and the rest of the LNP who keep telling us time and time again that the economy is going great guns.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/tremors-of-concern-graph-reveals-tough-times-to-come/news-story/c7d34bf65ac394a6e10c69bfd6852c86

    No doubt the LNP mantra, “It’s all Labor’s fault.” will be making the rounds again soon.

    Nah, at the moment it’s those damn ‘headwinds’ from overseas, reaching all the way to Australia and around Frydebudget.

  15. ajm says:
    Monday, December 2, 2019 at 3:50 pm

    “I’ll be happy if the penalty is so big that it destroys the bank and its business has to be handed over to the government for free.”

    You are either an idiot or economically illiterate – which is it?

    If one or more of our big four banks failed the economic and social impact would be devastating for those that can least afford it.

  16. Kronomexsays:

    No, it’s Scummo, Friedbrainburger, the Corminator and the rest of the LNP who keep telling us time and time again that the economy is going great guns.

    The secret is to look at the economic data how Scummo, Friedbrainburger and the Corminator does. With the graphs and charts upside down.

  17. C@t

    I don’t see BB as aggressive as you seem to, so perhaps I’m not as sensitive, or maybe you’re a little too inclined to take things personally?
    Perhaps I shouldn’t have written that as a question. I see both of you as valued contributors as you make me think. 🙂

  18. Scummos version of “dealing with the banks” is threatening them with an uncooked stick of spaghetti and telling them what naughty people they are. A couple of years down the track and they’ll be back to their old ways with new and improved rorts and rackets. Then we’ll have a new commission (usually announced in the lead up to the next election) and the gubmint will open the now almost empty spaghetti pack and draw out another club in preparation to hit them if they win.

  19. Mavis @ #769 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 12:34 pm

    Given her vow at the beginning of her reign, it’s unlikely the Queen will abdicate. What is on the cards, however, is the creation of a regency in 18 months or so:

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/prince-charles-uses-brother-s-indiscretions-to-push-role-as-shadow-king-20191202-p53fzr.html

    There would have to be special provisions made in the Regency Act as it only provides for a Regent on the incapacitation of the monarch or if the monarch is out of the country or under age. Unless the Queen decides she is “incapacitated” and as a sprightly 93, at present she certainly doesn’t appear to be, or she decides to go live overseas, then I can’t see it happening.

    The UK government legislation webpage states:
    “Changes to legislation: There are currently no known outstanding effects for the Regency Act 1953.

    Of course, the government could make it the first bill to be introduced after the election, the second one being “The Decline of the Nation Following Brexit Bill”.

  20. Bucephalus @ #874 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 3:37 pm

    ajm says:
    Monday, December 2, 2019 at 3:50 pm

    “I’ll be happy if the penalty is so big that it destroys the bank and its business has to be handed over to the government for free.”

    You are either an idiot or economically illiterate – which is it?

    If one or more of our big four banks failed the economic and social impact would be devastating for those that can least afford it.

    There will be nothing done to fix our corrupt corporate culture until a major crisis with wide ranging impacts happens.

    The government should of course reimburse innocent parties including passive investors.

  21. ajm says:
    Monday, December 2, 2019 at 3:50 pm
    “I’ll be happy if the penalty is so big that it destroys the bank and its business has to be handed over to the government for free.”
    ______________________________
    Can we wait until it gets back over $26 so I can dump?

  22. lizzie @ #816 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 2:08 pm

    ScoMo, the master of not answering the question. I’m sure his fans think he’s brilliant.

    Labor kicks off question time with an attack on the Coalition’s economic management, saying growth has slowed, and labour productivity has declined for the first time since records began. Morrison responds:

    Thank you. I can confirm that after the election, people’s taxes didn’t go up, Mr Speaker.

    Because that’s all that counts to this economically illiterate ignoramus. 😐

  23. @BernardKeane
    ·
    17m
    Wonder how many partisans retweeting Labor’s lies about the CPRS know that the scheme handed billions in free permits and cash to Australia’s biggest polluters, including coal miners? Or that Labor’s own modelling showed not one coal-fired power station would close as a result?

    I think we have all moved further along as far as coal mine closure is concerned. Ten years is enough to alter the public’s perceptions about coal. I do remember that there was criticism about giving polluters too many advantages in order to buy their cooperation.

  24. lizzie @ #891 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 5:10 pm

    @BernardKeane
    ·
    17m
    Wonder how many partisans retweeting Labor’s lies about the CPRS know that the scheme handed billions in free permits and cash to Australia’s biggest polluters, including coal miners? Or that Labor’s own modelling showed not one coal-fired power station would close as a result?

    I think we have all moved further along as far as coal mine closure is concerned. Ten years is enough to alter the public’s perceptions about coal. I do remember that there was criticism about giving polluters too many advantages in order to buy their cooperation.

    Ah, Mr Increasingly Irrelevant, Bernard Keane, living in the past but trying to throw forward a feel to the future, and ignoring how you get the nation, and businesses, used to something before you tighten the screws.

  25. “Don’t waste my time with trivia”

    NSW police chief annoyed over ‘diversions’

    The NSW police commissioner described a referral to him about Energy Minister Angus Taylor as yet another “great diverter of my time”.

    Caption to a photo accompanying this story “Christian Porter has confirmed he was present during a call made by Scott Morrison to Mick Fuller.

    (Canberra Times heradline)

  26. lizzie @ #880 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 4:45 pm

    C@t

    I don’t see BB as aggressive as you seem to, so perhaps I’m not as sensitive, or maybe you’re a little too inclined to take things personally?
    Perhaps I shouldn’t have written that as a question. I see both of you as valued contributors as you make me think. 🙂

    Well, he hasn’t called you the Victorian equivalent of the ‘Gosford Godzilla’, plus much, much more, so I guess you don’t.


  27. @BernardKeane
    ·
    17m
    Wonder how many partisans retweeting Labor’s lies about the CPRS know that the scheme handed billions in free permits and cash to Australia’s biggest polluters, including coal miners? Or that Labor’s own modelling showed not one coal-fired power station would close as a result?

    Who knows what 10 years would have seen, we do know what the Greens did and the outcome. We have nothing. Thanks Bernard Keane and all that sail in the anti Labor boat called “The Greens”.

  28. NSW police chief annoyed over ‘diversions’

    The NSW police commissioner described a referral to him about Energy Minister Angus Taylor as yet another “great diverter of my time”.


    Reckons teenage girls should be strip searched so they are scared of the police, doesn’t know how to delegate, where did they find this guy?

  29. frednk @ #896 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 5:18 pm

    NSW police chief annoyed over ‘diversions’

    The NSW police commissioner described a referral to him about Energy Minister Angus Taylor as yet another “great diverter of my time”.


    Reckons teenage girls should be strip searched so they are scared of the police, doesn’t know how to delegate, where did they find this guy?

    In a bin outside his neighbour’s house.

  30. citizen @ #893 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 5:14 pm

    “Don’t waste my time with trivia”

    NSW police chief annoyed over ‘diversions’

    The NSW police commissioner described a referral to him about Energy Minister Angus Taylor as yet another “great diverter of my time”.

    Caption to a photo accompanying this story “Christian Porter has confirmed he was present during a call made by Scott Morrison to Mick Fuller.

    (Canberra Times heradline)

    So many diversions, so little time. This is what we are dealing with under the NSW Commissioner- a boy without a parent or guardian has his testicles touched and buttocks rubbed by a police officer not wearing gloves after a sniffer dog “lingered” near him.

    But wait, there’s more:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-02/nsw-police-strip-searched-25-children-at-festival-inquiry-hears/11756902

  31. C@t

    Maybe the transmission tower cannot transmit to other towers due to the smoke in the air?

    More like the smoke signals aren’t getting through knowing Gladys.

    Anyway the whole NSW Office of Environment website is down. They probably don’t want us to know how bad it is.

    I’m 2km from the Sydney CBD and the buildings are a blue grey smudge.

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