The tribes of Israel

The latest Essential Research poll turns up a mixed bag of views on the Israel Folau controversy. Also featured: prospects for an indigenous recognition referendum and yet more Section 44 eruptions.

The latest of Essential Research’s fortnightly polls, which continue to limit themselves to issue questions in the wake of the great pollster failure, focuses mostly on the Israel Folau controversy. Respondents registered high levels of recognition of the matter, with 22% saying they had been following it closely, 46% that they had “read or seen some news”, and another 17% saying they were at least “aware”.

Probing further, the poll records very strong support for what seem at first blush to be some rather illiberal propositions, including 64% agreement with the notion that people “should not be allowed to argue religious freedom to abuse others”. However, question wording would seem to be very important here, as other questions find an even split on whether Folau “has the right to voice his religious views, regardless of the hurt it could cause others” (34% agree, 36% disagree), and whether there should be “stronger laws to protect people who express their religious views in public” (38% agree, 38% disagree). Furthermore, 58% agreed that “employers should not have the right to dictate what their employees say outside work”, which would seem to encompass the Folau situation.

Respondents were also asked who would benefit and suffer from the federal government’s policies over the next three years, which, typically for a Coalition government, found large companies and corporations expected to do best (54% good, 11% bad). Other results were fairly evenly balanced, the most negative findings relating to the environment (26% good, 33% bad) and, funnily enough, “older Australians” (26% good, 38% bad). The economy came in at 33% good and 29% bad, and “Australia in general” at 36% good and 27% bad. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1099.

Also of note:

• A referendum on indigenous recognition may be held before the next election, after Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Wyatt’s announcement on Wednesday that he would pursue a consensus option for a proposal to go before voters “during the current parliamentary term”. It is clear the government would not be willing to countenance anything that went further than recognition, contrary to the Uluru Statement from the Heart’s call for a “First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution” – a notion derided as a “third chamber of parliament” by critics, including Scott Morrison.

• A paper in the University of Western Australia Law Review keeps the Section 44 pot astir by suggesting 26 current members of federal parliament may fall foul by maintaining a “right of abode” in the United Kingdom – a status allowing “practically the same rights” as citizenship even where citizenship has been formally renounced. The status has only been available to British citizens since 1983, but is maintained by citizens of Commonwealth countries who held it before that time, which they could do through marriage or descent. This could potentially be interpreted as among “the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”, as per the disqualifying clause in Section 44. Anyone concerned by this has until the end of the month to challenge an election result within the 40 day period that began with the return of the writs on June 21. Action beyond that point would require referral by the House of Representatives or the Senate, as appropriate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “The tribes of Israel”

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  1. Nicholas @ #298 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 7:09 pm

    Gay teens are more likely to experience mental health struggles and self-harm and more likely to suicide than heterosexual teens. The reason is a culture of stigmatisation and rejection. It isn’t a matter of one specific statement by one person leading to a suicide. The problem is the climate of verbal abuse and bigotry and exclusion faced by gay people, especially young gay people.

    Rugby Australia has a policy of not wanting its name and platform associated with contributing to that oppressive culture.

    Some people are acting as though Folau was hard done by and that Rugby Australia was acting capriciously or out of the blue. They had anticipated this specific issue to the point of including a clause about it in his contract.

    It ought to be acceptable for organizations to decide that they will not associate with people who choose to contribute to a culture of abuse that increases the rate of mental illness and suicide.

    Blah, Blah. Blah!

    No facts. Just assertions.

    False premise leads to fuckwittery conclusion!

  3. Guytaur the US World Cup side would get smashed 10 0 by a men’s conference side. There is no comparison between what they do and what top class men footballers do. It is an inferior product. In saying that it has improved and there are some excellent athletes amongst them. Plus men have been building their product for over a hundred years. Have to laugh when some twits even suggested that the WAFL should have wage parity with men. Head in hands muttering.

  5. GG

    Wrong. Not just assertions. Go read the White paper on HIV/Aids by the Hawke government. Go read the psychiatric experts opinion. The evidence and yes no matter how you don’t like it it’s evidence is very clear.

    Your belief takes second place to that b

  6. clem attlee @ #303 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 7:14 pm

    Guytaur the US World Cup side would get smashed 10 0 by a men’s conference side. There is no comparison between what do and what top class men footballers do. It is an inferior product. Plus men have been building their product for over a hundred years. Have to laugh when some twits even suggested that the WAFL should have wage parity with men. Head in hands muttering.

    They don’t charge for entry.

    It’s a drug deal for the Media.

    You don’t pay till you’re addicted.

  7. Oh no, Israel Folau said that as an atheist I’m not going to his imaginary place in the sky.. quick fetch a wonky chair and a length of rope.

  8. Clem

    You assert inferior product. Audience and ratings contradict you.

    Every post you reveal more about yourself. It’s not a good look. Even Morrison would not say that.

  10. Greensborough Growler:

    [‘BB,

    You are a magnificent contributor.

    More power to your pen!’]

    Oh, please stop the ingratiation; not that I’m assuming that you’re a white, Catholic, prejudiced, male. It seems that it’s a case of mutual admiration – you and the pompous Bushfire. You’re back after a hiatus. Some things don’t change – nor I doubt will you(?).

  11. The data I have seen on teen suicides makes the point that it is virtually impossible to determine the role of sexuality (after all not all teens have a defined sexuality and suicide is also often multi-factorial) but then conclude that suicide is higher in homosexuals. There seems to be some observer bias.

    This already thin argument is then expanded to say that any indelicate remark about homosexuality causes suicides

  12. @clem attlee
    a Protestant renewal movement known for its belief in prophecies and tongues. Folau felt reborn.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2019/05/11/testing-israel-folaus-faith/15574968008122

    “a member or follower of any of the Western Christian Churches that are separate from the Roman Catholic Church in accordance with the principles of the Reformation, including the Baptist, Presbyterian, and Lutheran Churches.”

    He is not a atheist.

  14. clem

    Players like Ronaldo, Kane amd Messi earn huge wages because they have a huge audience

    That’s a bit cliche.

    The US womens football team earns more revenue than the men do. This will become the norm. Other than that they play a better game IMO, perhaps that has something to do with them being paid less, they do it from the heart.

  15. Mavis Davis @ #310 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 7:21 pm

    Greensborough Growler:

    [‘BB,

    You are a magnificent contributor.

    More power to your pen!’]

    Oh, please stop the ingratiation; not that I’m assuming that you’re a white, Catholic, prejudiced, male. It seems that it’s a case of mutual admiration – you and the pompous Bushfire. You’re back after a hiatus. Some things don’t change – nor I doubt will you(?).

    Love your understated bigotry. Says everything about you that needs to be said. Ultimately, you’re looking for ways to show how pathetic you are.

    BB is the an icon of this blog.

    If you can’t deal with that, then get older.

  16. Guytaur clearly you know nothing about football. The EPL generates billions of dollars in revenue that is why Harry Kane earns a hundred thousand pounds a week. The English women’s league earns diddly squat and that my friend, is why they do not earn the same money as the men. Simple economics and no grand sexist conspiracy. I also don’t need a lecture from the likes of you re my credentials regarding fighting inequality. I concentrate on the things that really count like public health, education wages and secure employment, whilst you get your knickers in a knot over identity issues because it gives you a warm inner glow. Oppression… you have no fucking idea mate!

  17. I watched the film Apollo 11 today. Simply breathtaking.

    It’s mind blowing that a country capable of such an achievement can be such a social basket case and global danger.

  18. It is not just suicide risk – it is the fact that gay people experience a lot more distress and exclusion and stigmatisation than heterosexual people. It is a lot easier to be heterosexual in our culture than to be gay. Rugby Australia were well within their rights to decide that they do not want to associate with someone who contributes to that problem. Folau signed the contract. He is being petulant and deserves no sympathy.

  19. Clem

    I was talking specifically about US soccer. You found yourself on the wrong side of the argument due to women earning more than the men.

    Your attempted red herring about European soccer remains a red herring.

  21. Mike Hilliard, the issue is not the US women’s team, it is should they as pros, earn the same as men? When the domestic game earns the cash, then they will earn the same money.

  22. The absurd idea that public services are best delivered by private profiteers is the English disease that our dumb politicians have caught.

    Why do England and Wales have poor water quality compared with Scotland? In 2018 E & W had 56 serious pollution incidents as compared with Scotland’s nil.

    The major difference is that England and Wales water is controlled by 9 private (for profit) companies whereas Scottish water is delivered by public authrorities.

  23. I can well believe that gay teens have a much harder time than others, even in these (relatively) enlightened times.

    Folau’s tweet was a nasty throwback to what many had hoped was a bygone era. Whether they breach his contract I don’t know. The ARU has decided that he is not a credit to the game. So let him fight it out in court.

    Win or lose, Folau can get stuffed.

  24. It is an inferior product. There is no pace to the game and there are still some very nonathletic players, although this is improving. It’s like tennis. The top ranked woman, would be beaten in straight sets by an unranked man.

  25. taylormade @ #161 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 7:23 pm

    Another Victorian Fire chief bites the dust. Another big payout. Another scalp for Marshall and the UFU.

    The new FRV tidies up what was an organisational cluster!@#$.

    We should treasure our voluntary and professional firefighters and it’s about time we had a modern professional structure to manage them.

  26. Mike Hilliard. Check the world TV rating figures for the Men’s World Cup and the associated revenue and compare that to the woman’s World cup. I rest my case, thank you!

  27. It has been argued that The ARU reacted to keep Qantas as a major sponsor

    Will Qantas now be dropping their association with Emirates? Or will commercial factors prevail?

  28. Guytaur you might want to defy the laws of economic gravity but nobody else can. The same argument was being made here when the WAFL was set up. What a joke. They give tickets away and the crowds were dropping even in the second season, yet some half wits demanded for equal pay.

  29. Also, wait until the US women’s team starts to get beaten, watch the Yanks drop off. The yanks love a winner even if they aren’t beating much.

  30. clem

    No probs. My argument is purely from the visual enjoyment of the game. I think the women play a better one.

  31. Gee there’s some ‘woke’ hipster tool on the drum now spouting the same identity shit. And we wonder why Labor cannot win a federal poll.

  33. I watch it too and like it. It has improved leaps and bounds, but is nowhere near the standard of men’s football and never will be. Yet some believe that the women should be paid the same as Messi and Ronaldo. Seriously?

  34. No Zoidlord… they’re football is… fact! Oh don’t call me an misogynist… you’re hurting my feelings. I’m feeling oppressed.

  41. Ho Hum!

    Now BB is quoting a famous architect, a PhD in architecture, to support his own ill informed views about the development of sexual identity and preference in contemporary Australia. Farrelly has the same level of ignorance as he does about these matters.

    Equivalent to Nick Minchin quoting Malcolm Roberts to disprove AGW.

    Let it go BB. There is no shame in not being an expert in everything. And remember as your mate Israel has been known to preach, vengeance is the lord’s, not your’s.

  42. Oakeshott Country @ #327 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 7:36 pm

    It has been argued that The ARU reacted to keep Qantas as a major sponsor

    Will Qantas now be dropping their association with Emirates? Or will commercial factors prevail?

    Qantas want to maximise their commercial reach to all sections of society.

    It’s ALL about commercial factors.

  43. clem

    Talk about not only a Godwin’s but an inaccurate Godwin’s – I’m pretty sure no Nazi ever pretended anyone had freedom of speech.

    You’re advocating a world without consequences, where people act without consideration for others. That’s far bleaker than what I’m advocating, one where people are just as aware of their responsibilities towards others as they are of their rights.

    The originators of our concept of ‘rights’ never pretended that these rights were open – ended. Individuals had the freedom to do or say what they wanted – until their actions impacted on others.

    This is because freedoms clash. One person’s right to live their life peacefully, in a way which doesn’t hurt anyone else, is impacted on by another person’s right to vilify them. One person’s right to freedom of movement is impacted on by another’s right to be protected from criminal activity. One person’s right to privacy is impacted on by another’s insistence on transparency and openness.

    This recognition that rights carry responsibilities, and that a rational and reasonable person weighs these competing needs when exercising their rights, are as old as our concepts of individual freedom.

  44. Psyclaw, can you please be more considerate of BB’S feelings? He may feel oppressed by your description of him as ‘ill informed.’

  48. Zoomster, yes consequences, as in telling him he is a bigoted tool. That is where it should start and finish. He has the right to express his crackpot ideas and you have the right to call him out on it What are you going to do, when your opinions are being banned? What happens when you’re in the firing line? This freedom/ consequences argument is pure semantics as my illustration showed. I’m referring to the futuristic Nazis who will be lining you up. It’s called being hoist by your own petard.

  49. The Newcastle Jets under 15 side beat the Matilda’s about 5-0 a few years back. In SA, the state girls teams play boys club teams who are second division and a year younger. There is a huge difference in standard.

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